Friday ES Long Reaches Objective; Sell Target is closeES reaches it's 2888.75 objective from the 2812 long on Friday morning. Usually, this is where it would turn, however, Wall Street needs it's fill up here too. And, the end of the channel is in sight. If we continue up, look to 2925 level to sell. It may take some time to do that, similar to other tops. At some point, this whole move up will need to be defended by the Bulls at their 50%-61.8% lines. There will be a sell here that will be good for 60 points minimum OR ALOT MORE. Be patient.
Spyshort
This week we end bellow the poing of Equilibrium at the Dialy/1HThe ultimate oscilator (By Larry Williams) shows me a slightly bearish hidden divergence at the 1H and we end the week bellow the clossest equilibrium point between 2869 - 2875 (1H + 4H Kumo's). I put an area line to watch the lower lows price more closely with the vertical lines but the clear thing is, the bulls never break the 2869 - 2875 to the upside. Finally the 4H chart shows the price bellow the Kumo so the preferent direction it's to the down side. For the long side, the D chart shows a strong Kumo support but be aware because the rising wedge was broken. The chaos is here.
El último oscilador (de Larry Williams) me muestra una divergencia oculta ligeramente bajista en la 1H y terminamos la semana debajo del punto de equilibrio más cercano entre 2869 - 2875 (1H + 4H Kumo's). Puse una línea de área para observar el precio de los mínimos más bajos más de cerca con las líneas verticales, pero lo claro es que los toros nunca rompen el 2869 - 2875 al alza. Finalmente, el gráfico 4H muestra el precio debajo del Kumo, por lo que la dirección preferida es hacia el lado negativo. Para el lado largo, el gráfico D muestra un fuerte soporte de Kumo, pero tenga en cuenta que la cuña ascendente se rompió. El caos está aquí.
How go the transports, so goes the marketcomparing 45min chart of SPY and IYT...volume profile gives some support as to why the IYT is not recovering. there is no volume support at current prices, and holders mainly bought much higher...
SPY...it is at the point of supply...failed to get above it and is now grinding in a narrow range as the volume at this level fights for supremacy...I think the straight volume trend still in decline, compared to the increasing volume in the IYT shows that the price has not quite hit the stops or trigger point on SPY.
As the economic reality sets in, another month of missed payments, 2 looming bankruptcies (Hertz, JCrew), and unemployment on thursday...I'd expect some risk off trades ahead of the numbers, but with the fiscal stimulus fire hose on full blast...who knows...maybe people are placing bets for an in line number and thus irrationally exuberant push higher...As a small business owner, I just can't shake the sense that something profound has changed. In some ways for the better, but for the near term economic outlook it is decidedly negative.
Maybe not this week, but by this fall we will be trading sub 2400 on the SP500 and talking about the worst economic crisis in living memory.
Printing fiat will not fix this...It is a system of payments, the payments can't stop for more than 30days...let alone 60-90, before the system just fails...Don't believe me? Get long and watch.
Bulltrap Nearing Completion - 4 Ideas on the BreakdownWe're finally nearing the completion of my bulltrap forecasts, and unsurprisingly, the market has chosen to draw it out as long as possible to the intersection of the previous lower trendline (dashed line) and the upper bearish trendline. The market laid out a nice bear trap by breaking below the previous lower trend line early, before opting to grind and re-test it multiple times once it turned into overhead resistance. I believe we're finally seeing the reversal downwards, though the bulls have some important support levels at 280 and 278 which could result in a bounce or sideways grind before finally breaking down. Bulls will look to defend this new lower trendline, while bears will look to break it down as soon as possible to open the door to much more downside movement.
Broke Channel from March 23rd - MACD turnover Yay! MACD has turned over on all charts but the daily, though it is in the process of turning over there later tonight. We've been in an ascending channel since March 23rd and we broke through it today finally. Money is flowing out of equities and into bonds which may be the gust of wind needed for this fundamentals domino set-up.
2880 was and is an important line to break through. We've blown past it in the futures, and I am hoping it continues. It may stop and turn around at some point tonight to test it. Potential for a big gap down day tomorrow with continued follow through. This should be fast and aggressive to the downside.
Article bonds vs. equities: finance.yahoo.com