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SPY S&P 500 ETF Options ChainI have monitored the options chain of SPY in the past 2 months and I noticed some big Puts positions that are recurring, regardless of the price: 2023-3-17 expiration date $386 strike price ($2.53 premium now) I don`t know that it has something to to with the higher than expected inflation, continuation of the interest rate hikes, the P/E ratio of 21.80 for SPX (quite high), or the war in Ukraine. But options traders are quite bearish on SPY S&P 500 ETF for the upcoming month. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
3
SPY S&P 500 ETF Price PredictionOn March 7th we have the Fed Chair Powell Testimony, that could reveal that the FOMC is going to hike the interest rates for a longer period of time, and maybe give us a clue if it`s the case for a 50bps increase after the next meeting. On March 10th we have the Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate that could also fuel a potential 50bps hike if they come better than expected. In this context, my price target for SPY is $386 by Mid-April. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
(WARNNG) Extreme Bear Volume in $XLF, Shorting next hourly LH- QQQ double topped with Tuesday top, had a 15m bull flag during consolidation with no red flags until mid morning. - XLF increasing bear volume with zero bounce and very notable big money exiting. Fear creeped into the market - VIX up 20% - QQQ went from lead bull to bear when all sectors starting to drop at the same time after XLFs huge drop. dragging SPY down too. - lots of negative news and sentiment regarding banks and how much they dropped SI down over 80% in just two days. - Bears now in total control. - huge drop in XBI & IWM as well. SMH might go from lead bull to lead bear tomorrow looking to short the next hourly or 15m lower high pretty much almost on any bounce if we get a bullish reaction to data tomorrow during PM will be shorting that bounce.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ArcadiaTrading
SP500, why you should be carefull on the current rally.SP500 / Multi-Time-Frame. AUDUSD / 4H Dear Traders, I warmly welcome you to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis on SP500 pair. From a weekly viewpoint, in my opinion, SPY looks remarkably bearish . A Double top formation with a previous high on the monthly time frame, and the downward trend has already begun as seen from last month's close. Everything appears to be pointing towards the onset of the next bear move. Currently, on the daily timeframe , we are experiencing a pull-back to the Broken support that might turn into resistance. Therefore, I am patiently waiting for my sell zone to be reached and will be looking on lower time frames for a good entry point in case I get my entry creteria validated. Trade safely, Trader Leo.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by UnknownUnicorn27919176
17
$SPY PUTS If we held above $400 it would signal a larger move up. Likelihood of that happening is quite low in my opinion. With a big week of low expected earnings, possible negative news coming from Powell, and many companies looking lacklustre with weak guidance, I expect that we can see a strong rejection of the $400 level. Closed one put already from $399 to $396 and will gradually re-open a few Puts for March/April expiration between $397-$399 Looking for a TP level around $370 or at the .618 fib line. Not because it would be a bottom, but a good level to take profit as we approach expiration and where we might see a possible bounce. Stop loss would be $400 as I don't expect us to head back above this level. However, if we do, the risk/reward ratio is worth it. Good luck everyone.
AMEX:SPYShort
by bishopknight
2
ES1!: RALLIES & FALLS / UPDATE / POINT OF CONTROL: 4000 & 3950DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO analysis of ES1! a future INDEX on the daily timeframe. POINTS: 1. Deviation of 250 points would justify placement of SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS. 2. Pennant Formation 3. Current CORRECTION FALL is roughly 5.55% falling short by nearly 5% when compared to other CORRECTION PHASES. RSI: Since the inception of the current bear market price action has only held one time when RSI is at a PIVOT POINT and ready to enter OVERSOLD TERRITORY. MACD: If MACD is pulled into OVERSOLD territory or anywhere past it's MEDIAN OF 0.00. This will be a strong indicator that price action will fail to hold onto its current channel of 4050 - 3800. And would essentially mean price action will retest past channel of 3800 - 3550. POINT OF CONTROL: Price action must remain above LEVEL 1 SUPPORT of 4000 & LEVEL 2 SUPPORT of 3950. SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario we would come to see price action bounce at 3950 then followed by a move toward 4150 before breaking pennant formation. (Not the safest bet since this scenario would VIOLATE RSI'S TREND FROM THE PAST YEAR) SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario we come to see a break below 3950 that would leave to PRICE ACTION not seeing support until 3800. (This would fall in line with what current indicators are signaling) FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com CME_MINI:ES1!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DGSTBROKERACC
Spy Supply/Demand Zones with Support/Resistance.AMEX:SPY Here shown are the current S/D and S/R levels on Spy. There is also an imbalance area in the middle of the chart that can be used as a support/resistance zone however, this seems to be more of a resistance level given the candles and wicks and how they set up right below this level. The candles are seemingly setting up for an aggressive leg up as that is the only way they can break this resistance and make it become a support again. Hope this chart helps you traders and remember me when you get your first AP. Remember the AP doesn't lie...
AMEX:SPY
by MuhWhipski
SPX Feb21 - Mar6 TATA are expectations up to ~ March 6 based of avg downtrend duration for the last 4 drops. Note the following 1) Monthly Trend : Bullish -- note the trend, support line (solid) and channel, resistance line (dashed) 2) Week Trend : Bearish-- note the lines, same as above, but red. a break in trend = good chance of reversal. a break in channel = strong movement 3) Break in the Monthly bullish trend, retouched and dropped back down as confirmation of new Bear movement 4) RSI @ 42 -> slightly bearish market on 2h 🪟 5) EMA for 9, 20, 50. Again, TA is 38 Bars. 9 crossed both 20 & 50 sharply, waiting for 20 to cross as well for better bearish confirmation 6) Supports @ 4060, 4010 (Key Supp for weekly), 3877, 3764 (Key supp for Monthly) Anything can happen. Tuesday / Wednesday could be wild or just more consolidation these last 2 weeks has been consolidation, so a blow can happen soon
SP:SPXShort
by ENYS_LUUN
THE BIG FLIP $SPYMY BEARISH THESIS -This rally is led by fundamentally weak companies like CVNA, ROKU, AMC, and AFRM (companies with weak valuations) which has historically indicated that these types of rallies are temporary -Six Month Treasury Bill yields rising to 5%, last seen in 2007 - The Feds Fund Rate (Feds target interest rate) rose higher after the recent CPI data which means the Fed must raise rates more aggressively to combat inflation -50% base point rate hike probabilities are increasing for the next meeting -Mortage Application volume fell 7.7% last week as mortgage rates rose -The average rate for a 30-year mortgage rose from 6.18% to 6.4% in the last two weeks -Employment number came in over double than expected which will cause Wage inflation -Retail sales are up 3% month over month, crushing expectations (2%), spending continues -Restaurant Retail Sales up 7.2% in January, strongest since March 2021 -Used car prices have increased 4.1% in the month of February and it's only the 18th -Credit Card Debt hits a record 930.6 billion, up 18.5% -Multiple large cap Company Earnings have missed and have started layoffs All this means that the average consumer hasn't stopped spending despite inflation and high interest rates. This will cause the Fed to continue hiking interest rates or keep interest rates higher for longer which is not sustainable for the consumer. Overall, the fundamentals and the data is showing that this rally is temporary, and we will go lower. How low we will go is not yet known for the equities market, but many analysts believe new lows are not out of the question. $SPY
AMEX:SPYShort
by sodatrades
4
VIX: VOLATILITY CYCLES / PREDICTION / EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGEDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a SEMI-MACRO analysis of VIX. I have decided to reduce the number of BARS that it will take for the Volatility Index to see its next price action cycle with past cycles lasting up too 250, 300, or 375 BARS to complete. With current price action trajectory and support it appears 250 BARS would be the most suitable span of time for this current cycle to complete. POINTS: 1. Deviation of 7 Points Remains the same for SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT. 2. 8 YEAR UPTREND Line has nearly made contact & is indicative of VIX seeing a rubber band reaction to the upside. 3. Current DOWNTREND pattern is being squeezed against 8 year trend. IMO: If price action sees a break to the upside past 21.50 it will be a sure enough bet that VIX will then be looking for 26 Points. EMA'S: PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO TIGHT MOMENTUM OF ALL THREE EMA'S (45,100,200) WHICH USUALLY INDICATIVE OF UPCOMING SHIFT IN TREND. RSI: In regard to RSI crucial pivot point levels are mapped by using past positions held by RSI when VIX would eventually bottom out. MACD: The VIX and MACD share a parallel relationship in the way that as soon as MACD touches MEDIAN and switches directions price action on VIX will come to see a shift in momentum. Currently MACD is in negative territory but should be another solid indicator for when VIX is ready to rubber band to the upside. SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario price action continues to be supported by threshold at 19 & by March 8th it would be inevitable for PRICE ACTION to not be carried TO THE UPSIDE by the 45 EMA with current TRAJECTORY if SUPPORT OF 19 HOLDS. SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario this setup would become invalidated if price action is to BREAK TO THE DOWNSIDE past the 19 SUPPORT LEVEL. And would depend on a future hold of of at least 16.80 to be held in order to respect 8 YEAR UPTREND. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:VIX
TVC:VIXLong
by DGSTBROKERACC
1
I wanted to follow up on the $SPY chart I posted a few days ago.I wanted to follow up on the chart I posted a few days ago, which showed the MACD and clusters of consolidation. The current situation is that as long as $SPY maintains its daily trend, things should remain stable. However, if it fails to do so, bears may become more active and push for a retest of $405, $402.35, and possibly even a 50EMA meeting at the $400 price level. As of now, there is an inverse hammer pattern visible on both daily and weekly charts, but it is still inside on the week.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Solidified
Will history repeat itself? Party until Jan 25thPlease do your DD this is not a financial advice. The current market crash and bounce seems to be rhyming with the 2000 crash. If you saw my AAPL(attached below) idea, you will see that I believe this is the case and we are going through 2000 crash and eventually 2008 (in about 8 years) deleveraging again. With the CPI and unemployment data out of the way, there is no major event to wait for until earnings; starting with Tesla on the 25th which I think will would start the next downturn in markets if it hasn't started by then.
AMEX:SPYShort
by BlackisKing
3