$SPY with the 3-1-2d on the week and breakdown on daily. $SPY with the 3-1-2d on the week and breakdown on daily.
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Spyshort
VIX: VOLATILITY CYCLES / PREDICTION / EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGEDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a SEMI-MACRO analysis of VIX. I have decided to reduce the number of BARS that it will take for the Volatility Index to see its next price action cycle with past cycles lasting up too 250, 300, or 375 BARS to complete. With current price action trajectory and support it appears 250 BARS would be the most suitable span of time for this current cycle to complete.
POINTS:
1. Deviation of 7 Points Remains the same for SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT.
2. 8 YEAR UPTREND Line has nearly made contact & is indicative of VIX seeing a rubber band reaction to the upside.
3. Current DOWNTREND pattern is being squeezed against 8 year trend.
IMO: If price action sees a break to the upside past 21.50 it will be a sure enough bet that VIX will then be looking for 26 Points.
EMA'S: PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO TIGHT MOMENTUM OF ALL THREE EMA'S (45,100,200) WHICH USUALLY INDICATIVE OF UPCOMING SHIFT IN TREND.
RSI: In regard to RSI crucial pivot point levels are mapped by using past positions held by RSI when VIX would eventually bottom out.
MACD: The VIX and MACD share a parallel relationship in the way that as soon as MACD touches MEDIAN and switches directions price action on VIX will come to see a shift in momentum. Currently MACD is in negative territory but should be another solid indicator for when VIX is ready to rubber band to the upside.
SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario price action continues to be supported by threshold at 19 & by March 8th it would be inevitable for PRICE ACTION to not be carried TO THE UPSIDE by the 45 EMA with current TRAJECTORY if SUPPORT OF 19 HOLDS.
SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario this setup would become invalidated if price action is to BREAK TO THE DOWNSIDE past the 19 SUPPORT LEVEL. And would depend on a future hold of of at least 16.80 to be held in order to respect 8 YEAR UPTREND.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
TVC:VIX
I wanted to follow up on the $SPY chart I posted a few days ago.I wanted to follow up on the chart I posted a few days ago, which showed the MACD and clusters of consolidation.
The current situation is that as long as $SPY maintains its daily trend, things should remain stable. However, if it fails to do so, bears may become more active and push for a retest of $405, $402.35, and possibly even a 50EMA meeting at the $400 price level. As of now, there is an inverse hammer pattern visible on both daily and weekly charts, but it is still inside on the week.
a little 3:1 shot on us30Expecting a small move on the Dow Jones today, nothing audacious. A 0.8% decline to end todays session. Tell me what you think down below..
SPY WATCHLIST FEBRUARY 13TH- 17THCPI data, jobless claims, housing starts! The Economic Calendar has a full week ahead and I believe this will be one of the deciding factors into what the market will do in this pullback.
Broke an important supply zone around 408/409 and pulled back Thursday and closed on it on Friday.
This week my eye is on data and if we break above 408.85 to take profit at 410, 411.56, 415. And if we break below 404 to take profit at 402.15, 500, 398.50!
Will history repeat itself? Party until Jan 25thPlease do your DD this is not a financial advice.
The current market crash and bounce seems to be rhyming with the 2000 crash. If you saw my AAPL(attached below) idea, you will see that I believe this is the case and we are going through 2000 crash and eventually 2008 (in about 8 years) deleveraging again. With the CPI and unemployment data out of the way, there is no major event to wait for until earnings; starting with Tesla on the 25th which I think will would start the next downturn in markets if it hasn't started by then.
SPY SCALPINGOptions traders, Im expecting price goes back to 417.49$.
Trade base on your own decissions.
COme and check me out for more.
ES Bearish Reversal -> Bear Market ContinuesMost analysts are extremely bullish on the major indices. However, looking at the latest price of ES, we can anticipate, a major bearish reversal throughout February until the the Fed stops its interest rake hikes and the dooms-day inflationary narrative dissipates from the markets.
SPY UPDATES
Options traders Congrats, Because of FOMC. Yes we see a Sweep, so Now after NFP im expecting price to goes down.
Trade base on your own decissions.
Come and check me out for more analysis
Powell's Power!As of recently we have been in a small bull run. Bulls have been pumping on bad news, being dumb and relentlessly rallying. This is normal for bulls though so what can we expect? Bulls gonna do what bulls gonna do! We are at a strong resistance/supply level however, the bulls have been very violent and are out for blood as they aim to plow through this resistance/supply zone. In a few days we get the new interest rate numbers and if the FED decides to pause the rate hike then the bulls will go crazy and pump spy even higher. A rate hike will most likely drag spy down a bit and put us into lower 400s or higher 390s but, lately bulls have been pumping on bad numbers so we cannot accurately determine their next move. The bulls are at the end of a tunnel and they see the light so they will not stop at any costs, join the rally or get stomped shorting. I'm not a bull or a bear but the trend is your friend, that is if you can spot it.
VIX Yearlong Trend Warns That SPY Could Turn BearVIX is the volatility index for the S&P 500. It works in an inverse correlation to SPY so when VIX goes up, SPY goes down. There has been a common zone that whenever VIX dips into it, it skyrockets. Just a couple weeks ago we dipped into that zone and we have experienced an average move of -15.5% on SPY whenever that happens. Its also good to take into consideration that we have another year long trend that is in place. SPY has well respected a resistance line that dates back to late last year. Although we have technically broken this trend line, I am a firm believer in Gann's theory of lost motion so I believe we still have a chance to reverse. The most important part of the VIX setup is that PRICE NEVER HAS A WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE THAT PRICE AGAIN. We just have to wait until the closing on Monday to see if this trend gets broken. The economy is also an important thing the consider with this trade setup. I believe that the bear move is signicantly more likely because of the federal reserve's actions on inflation. They have confirmed that quantative easing will start AT MINIMUM 6 months from now. This means we still have more of the recession left in us. We just have to wait till the start of next week for this to play out. If we close below the start of this setup, I am going short on SPY.
Time For Bears To Feast? $SPY Heading to $385 By Feb. 10th.It seems like it's following the same pattern as the past two rallies. If you look closely, each time it rallied, the volume was declining and same is happening with the current rally as well. The first rally hit the bottom trendline in 36 days, the second rally hit the bottom trendline in 18 days (in exactly half the amount of days it took the first one to touch the trendline) and if the algos are following similar pattern we should see $385 by second week of Feb. Close above $405 invalidates this probability for me.
Closed Just Above the Pivot Point1-month out futures suggests a trip to the weekly S3 level on the SPY of $386.05. Potential weakness in Tech as their clients opt for cost cutting measures? Outlook on Microsoft earnings suggests their clients are trying to do more with less.
SPY Bearish or moon shot?The spy is in a major consolidation on declining volume getting ready for a big move. In the mid term, it looks like we are in a rising wedge on declining volume testing major down trend resistance and upper pattern trend line resistance. I think interest rates on the 1st will be part of the catalysts to send it back down to 388 or 381. If we start closing above these green and blue major levels(around 405, things would get bullish really quickly and I would look for 435 next on a massive spike in buy volume. I am short term bearish however and possibly midterm term as well but I'm undecided
VIX move on Friday while SPY continued higherThis could be a very telling sign for what to expect on Monday. While the SPY (and generally the market) continued to trade higher on Friday (1/20), the VIX hit a low early mid-day and then moved higher into afternoon trading. Another thing to remember is that Friday was the LEAPs options expiration that started over 2 years ago for that expiration. It is typical for markets to be a little volatile during that week of a major expiration, but doesn't really go anywhere; kinda like we saw this past week where we we made another weekly high on Tuesday then sold down pretty good Wednesday/Thursday and then on Friday ended the week with a bull retracement. Now that a major options expiration is done, wouldn't be surprised if we started to see a more directional move on the market and if the VIX action on the second half of the day on Friday is any tell, bearish could be the direction.
Bar chart: SPY
Orange line: VIX
SPY has been declining since January 2022.The performance of the Spy (S&P 500) has been declining since January 2022. The angle of decline ranges from -60 to -57 degrees, on average taking 61 days to reach the bottom. Based on this trend, I anticipate that by February 10th, the Spy will be valued at around $350, though it's important to note that this is just a prediction and not a guarantee. If the Spy were to break out of this downward trend/channel resistance, all previous observations would no longer be valid.
SPY upper TL rejectionSPY/SPX rejected that Daily resistence for the 6th time now and even though CPI is getting lower every month and we peaked at 9,1% I am still bearish on the Market. SPY 370 inevitable imo and possible 350 next in the next few weeks/months !
What Goes Up Must Come DownAfter that ascending triangle collapse, I can see SPY getting back within the orange downtrend range. Lookout for any areas of strong support for a possible bounce reversal when playing puts.
SPY $ Target 2023we got rejected for the 5th time at our bearish channel, if we don't clear that channel above the 400$, is means we going to have a test first for the support above the 355$ then to the bottom price around the (320$/340$) .
on the other hand if we broke that channel , is means that will be the first sign for bullish reversal , and the second signal which is the most strongest one is breaking the 430$ resistant .
SPY S&P 500 ETF Price Target for 2023After an extended Santa Rally, which reached all the Elliot Waves Price Targets:
I think we will see an earnings recession in the first two quarters and SPY S&P 500 ETF will test the October 2022 low on a Double Bottom Chart Pattern.
Then it will rally to $431 by the end of the year!
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX - Updated 011423Leading up to the December Inflation CPI Report that was released this last week (Thursday), markets (at a macro level) have been rallying into this last Friday — which also was coincidently the start of earnings season as banks such as J.P. Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), & others.
Now that the Inflation (CPI) Report is out of the way & earnings season is full steam ahead, markets look to the next big event(s) which include the Federal Reserve February Interest Rate Decision coming our way on February 1st, 2023.
That said, here's what is happening in the charts with the S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! as it relates to our "40-Bar Cycle" 📊:
📉 *CHART NOTES* 📈
As I mentioned above, we did break out of the sloppy trading/consolidation range that the S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! was kept in throughout the holidays, & into the new year. Now that we've broken out of that & reached back above the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA50 = Red Line) on the daily chart, SPY is sitting just below the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA200 = Green Line). Also note that we did close above the SMA200 ($397.21) to finish up the week at ($398.50) on SPY. Now that we are above this key level (on a daily close), question is will we re-test this level & drift higher into the February Federal Reserve Meeting? OR, are markets setting up for a further (or short-term) pull-back using the timing & levels included in the "40-Bar Cycle" 📊 ?
Keep in mind too that we did get a positive MACD crossover (buy signal) on the daily chart, as featured below. However, looking at the charts (including 4-hour MACD) I would conclude that this is likely an invalid buy signal — based in-part on other factors including January Options Expiration (OpEx) next week, 'VIX Compression', & also Federal Reserve 'Net Liquidity', which is still "risk-off" on a macro level as the Federal Reserve looks to keep a lid on asset prices, & of course Inflation (CPI).
Chart #1-2: SPY Consolidation Breakout (Daily, w/ & w/o Falling Wedge Pattern)
Chart #3: SPY Consolidation Breakout (4-Hour)
Chart #4: SPY Consolidation Breakout (1-Hour)
Chart #5: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (Daily, note that we are now clearly above the 50SMA are converging on major resistance of the 2022 downtrend & the 200SMA ).
Chart #6: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (4-Hour, note the 50SMA did not cross below the 200SMA)
Chart #7: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (1-Hour, note the 50SMA vs. 200SMA buy-signal & upward regression channel)
What are your predictions for the rest of January 23'?
Camp A: We are short-term overbought & a pull-back is in order, before we re-test & break out of this $380-390-400 range on the back of better than expected earnings, less than hawkish Federal Reserve, & more "resilient" macro data.
Camp B: We may continue to short-term rally, however market liquidity is still too strong & the Federal Reserve is likely to continue with .25% — in addition to maintaining their hawkish tone so that excess market liquidity does not run away from them with higher asset prices. Macro data will continue to be mixed, if not trend-downward, & earnings will start to come in softer than people expect as forward outlooks raise the red flags for investors.
Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
