SPY500 $SPY | RALLY AFTER FED RATE CUT - Sep. 19th, 2024SPY AMEX:SPY | RALLY AFTER FED RATE CUT - Sep. 19th, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $552.50 - $575.00
WEAKER BULLISH ZONE (PALE GREEN): $552.50 - $540.50
Weekly: Bullish
Daily: Bullish
4H: Bullish
This was my analysis for the end of the day yesterday, forgot to post it. Price has already rallied fairly well today. The Fed cut rates yesterday 50bps, down from 5.50 to 5.00. Here is what I was looking at as the market became volatile when reacting to the news. Despite the market already quickly moving in favor of the bullish zone, I still think we will reach the top of that zone before any form of reversal or significant pullback.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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Spytrend
SPY persists with bullish bias LONGSPY on a daily chart shows rising VWAP lines and price with the RSI indicator showing strength
above 50 since November and presently in the 65 range and so not yet overbought. Volumes
are near to the running mean. Price Momentum and Relative Trend indicator are more or less
flat but are positive. The mass index indicator does not show a reversal pattern. I conclude
that SPY is still in range for long trades including call options.
SPY is Doing ABC Medium Term CorrectionTechnical Analysis:
- As you can see in the chart, SPY is doing a short term wave 3 in red
- We expect that it will extend lower to finish correction around $300 ~$310 in the orange circle to complete the ABC correction of the wave II in red
- H1 & H4 Right Side is Turning Down
Technical Information:
- SPY is a ETF and it has a very strong correlation with SPX Indices
SPY Channels in your Weekly Game Plan$SPY bottomed on FOMC week and established the immediate trend's lower channel. The bounce off the lows moved SPY to the upper channel & a continuation wedge formation (stair-stepping downward). Friday's bottom wick attacked the intermediate trend that was established near the Jan lows. We have an "impingement" upcoming in the SPY Wedge Formation this week...does the larger, intermediate channel dominate the April/May channel? If so, expect a move back over 395 and possibly a run at the 405 level which is the 20DMA & the weekly low set on May 1st. If the move up towards 395 fails, expect the intermediate channel to be re-tested (should be under 380 by then) and then continue the Wedge Formation down towards the 374 area which might spark high volume selling and take SPY under 370.
Dotted horizontal lines are key weekly lows since February and placed for your visual reference of potential Profit Taker areas.
Key SPY levels for the upcoming 2 weeks: 360/ 368 / 374 / 377 / 380 / 385.15 / 405 / 411 / 420
SPX at a Key Inflection Point. 2/1 will be very tellingWith a strong close by the bulls today, $SPX finds itself at a key inflection point.
Today closed right at the 0.5 fib level from our Jan 4 high to our Jan 24 low. Coincidentally, the upper bounds of our ascending channel also lies around this price level.
If this is truly a lower high and a continuation of a bear trend, I would expect a rejection of this level into tomorrow's trading hours. This would provide further credence to the idea this is a bear flag
If the bulls take control and bust through the 4500-4530 level, it is increasingly possible the correction is already nearing its end. Watch 4600 for additional major resistance and confirmation of trend.
Stay frosty