Two scenarios explained on Square INCToday we will analyze SQ. This company is the 4th biggest Holding of ARKK and is run by Jack Dorsey (Twitter funder)
So what can we see here?
1) The main structure: We have a horizontal compressive channel that has been in formation since its peak on FEBRUARY 2021. This is useful because we can know if the price has made a clear breakout or not based on the reaction on these levels and daily candlesticks closing above or below. The main idea here is: If the price stays inside these levels, don't assume any breakout yet.
2) Possible Bearish Scenario: If the price reaches the highest level of the structure and reacts there, we can expect a bearish movement towards the other side of the range. (Interesting level for reversal traders)
3) Possible Bullish Scenario: When we want to develop swing setups based on new trends starting, we take some considerations before risking our money. First of all (Clear Breakout), we want to observe a new ATH (no doubt that the price broke the structure). After that, we want to observe a small consolidation, as you can see with the yellow lines. IF that happens, we can trade above that and set stop loss below the level. This provides a great confirmation and a setup with a perfect Risk-Reward Ratio of almost 1:3 to the first target. Expected time towards the final target (150 - 200 days if the scenario goes as expected)
As you can see, we don't care at all about the direction of the market. Taking rigid views with any asset is not a good idea because it doesn't allow you to adapt to changing conditions. That's the reason we work with "Scenarios." Based on this, the only situation we are interested in is the bullish one (Swing Setup); otherwise, we will stay on the sidelines.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to show your view in the comments.
