SQ
SQ PennantAfter pulling back into its channel, SQ is coiling in a pennant before earnings next week. A blowout could see breakout from pennant with continuation likely above $150. I am long SQ stock and calls, short SQ puts.
THE WEEK AHEAD: BYND, ROKU, SQ, ETSY, UBER EARNINGS; GDXJ, SLVEARNINGS:
There's a bunch, but here are the ones that interest me most for volatility contraction plays:
BYND (46/87/17.2%)*, announcing Tuesday after market close.
ROKU (40/84/16.6%), announcing Wednesday after market close.
SQ (40/74/13.4%), announcing Wednesday after market close.
ETSY (38/74/14.8%), announcing Wednesday after market close.
UBER (15/73/11.9%), announcing Thursday after market close.
Pictured here is a directionally neutral iron condor in BYND in the September cycle with the shorts camped out at the 21 delta strikes. A 3.26 credit as of Friday's close, it's paying nearly one-third the width of the wings. Naturally, you can go with the August monthly, but this is one that's known to be a mover, so I'd opt to go longer duration for more room to be wrong. For those who prefer naked: the September 18th 106/165 was paying 8.55 at the mid price as of Friday's close, with the August 21st 105/160 (18 delta) paying 5.45.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY >35%, ORDERED BY RANK, AND SHOWING SEPTEMBER SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE:
SLV (46/58/15.0%)
XLE (26/40/11.5%)
GDXJ (22/57/16.0%)
GDX (22/46/13.0%)
EWZ (20/46/12.4%)
XOP (13/53/14.6%)
From a buck banging perspective, it's GDXJ (16.0%), followed by SLV (15.0%), and XOP (14.6%) for premium selling. I've already got GDXJ and SLV plays on, so may consider something in XOP if I'm desperate to add to my theta pile.
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (29/34/9.1%)
QQQ (22/27/7.5%
EFA (21/23/6.0%)
SPY (19/23/6.2%)
The volatility was nice ... while it lasted. I may switch over to IWM put selling in the IRA in lieu of SPY given that RUT is where the volatility is at relative to the others. The 16 delta strike nearest 45 days until expiry would be the September 18th 130, paying 2.05.
IRA DIVIDEND-GENERATORS:
XLU (23/20/5.6%) (3.19% yield)
IYR (22/28/7.2%) (3.27% yield)
EWA (22/30/8.4%) (3.72% yield)
EWZ (20/46/12.4%) (3.17% yield)
SPY (19/23/6.2%) (1.75% yield)
TLT (17/17/4.3%) (1.64% yield)
HYG (15/15/3.0%) (5.00% yield)
EMB (11/11/2.9%) (4.22% yield)
EWZ (12.4%), followed by EWA (8.4%), then IYR (7.2%). Getting kind of tired of laddering out EWZ, but you go where the volatility's at.
* -- For earnings, the August 21st at the money short straddle is used for determining the short straddle/stock price percentage; for everything else, I'm using September.
$SQ another shot at ATHThe last time I posted about my entry in $SQ I got stopped out. However, I am planning on entering again because it has shown strength (look at how it has bounced off its 21 EMA at every test).
It is also consolidating into a tight bull flag and looks prime for another run at its ATH. Earnings are on August 5th.
$SQ runup before earnings?After a pullback from ATHs it's been consolidating nicely and holding the 8EMA.
SQ 133 break?!?!?SQ fell out of the up trend. RSI was overbought and it corrected itself. Inside candle on Friday, showing some consolidation on the 1 day chart. Would not play until it breaks and holds above 133. Last time it ran it just kept going, long calls. 135-145 will pay. Again though, 133 is resistance so monitor accordingly.
SQ 1hr outlooklast week SQ was flagging. I went long at $120 and added a second position today at $122. We broke the flag. I cansee $128-$129 region getting hit today
SQ 130Back to the 130's. Tech coming back. Inside candle (consolidation) and holding that support strong meaning people aren't selling unless they are taking profits. Again, need some more candles. Would wait for a break and hold over 122 to begin making calls.
$SQ Topping Out - Retrace sub-$120 Upcoming$SQ Topping Out - Retrace sub-$120 Upcoming
Feels like its topping out, volume is starting to dissipate.
Price now ~75% above the 200d ema on the daily chart - definitely getting over extended at this point.
This would be a risky short, not recommending. However if you're long you might want to consider taking some profits here.
Expecting to see a retrace from these levels back to the $120 area near term.
Note : Not investment advice.
Watching Square as it rallies to all-time highsSquare really is a great company that's made payments and business software easier for everyone. They've also made Bitcoin, crypto, and other forms of trading mainstream with the Square app. I was once an investor in this company, way back during its IPO in 2016. I held for several years and was eventually out of it. It was a great run, but because of that I always keep my eye on it.
The recent search seems intense. And too strong. How much higher can Square go from here? I don't think it supports the revenue growth trends and while the future is bright, it seems a little disconnected. Let's wait and see...
SQ Short Opportunity NYSE:SQ
SQ was trading above a regression channel that has been in place since the beginning of April. If it can break these next key support level, which happens to be Square’s previous all time high, then I see it going down to 92. This is a special support as it marks the bottom of the regression channel, a previous strong resistance level, and a potential gap fill.
$SQ Closed Above Resistance - Possible Continuation$SQ Closed Above Resistance - Possible Continuation
Strong volume today - record close above resistance
Near term target: $115-$120 range by July
