SQ Bullish Flag + Breakout -> LongSQ had a very strong run since march lows and consolidatet during the last weeks in a bullish Flag pattern. Breakout approves Long Setup.
SQ
SQ - SQUARE GOES HIGHERI see more upside. $95 next Profit Target. Stop Loss if you see a return to 85 or 80s.
#NOTFINADVICE
Do your own research and good luck!
Play SQ VolatilityLooking to start a short over the next two days with price target around 83.20. Will continue to hold until $76 area then look to exit.
Square - Lagging behind but will catch up with Paypal and FintecSquare is making nice consolidation pattern before breaking out. The stock that people wish to be buying during this crisis.
Short SQEl S&500 (SPX) y SQ están en un rango de distribución. SQ esta inmerso en un canal bajista que dado el contexto actual podemos esperar que se mantenga dentro de este alcanzando nuevos mínimos, actualmente el precio esta en la parte alta del canal y creo debería comenzar su camino hacia la parte baja de este alcanzando los precios de:
56, 43 y 23 USD
STOP LOSS: 81, 91 USD de acuerdo a politicas de riesgo.
Daily Review: SQ and QQQToday, U.S. equities ended the session on a bearish note. Confirming the move down, cryptocurrencies also pulled back, erasing most of yesterday's gains. Markets continue to move in lock step, and until that changes, we should continue to treat equities and cryptocurrencies correlated. On today's post I am looking forward at next weeks earnings report for SQ and also checking in on the QQQ.
Cashing it in!
Square, Inc. (SQ) reports its fiscal quarter one results on May 6th. The view is that SQ should perform well despite taking a hit due to Covid-19. This because SQ generates a large portion of their revenue from small to medium sized businesses who pay fees for their sales. These businesses, as you all know, have been severely impacted by the economic shutdown.
Luckily, for SQ, the success of their CashApp could be the company's saving grace. Last quarter SQ reported an impressive 60% increase in users, year-over-year. Furthermore, SQ has expanded their business beyond sales. Now offering loans to seller and payroll services. If you haven't used their app, I'd give it go. Enough talk of fundamentals and lets get to the chart.
Above is the 4-hour chart of SQ. Although not showing RSI divergence, SQ is nearing over head resistance in the low $70 region. Price is slowly grinding its way up toward a confluence of the 0.786 fibonacci and a descending trendline. If you zoom into lower time frames, you can see a cup and handle pattern developing, see chart below. SQ could be consolidating for a further move to the upside. The measured target is approximately $73 for the cup and handle.
The daily close, however was discouraging. SQ could experience a pull back toward the bottom of the trading range and on earning day pop a bit. Although I do like the fundamentals and story of SQ, I always revert back to my rules when uncertain. That is, that bullish patterns tend to FAIL in bear markets. Short term... Bias: Bearish .
Are the Bull Finally Exhausted?
Could today have marked the end of the historic rally? Yes, the technicals point to exhaustion. With all the big tech names having reported their earning for fiscal quarter one maybe the market takes a long breather. Below I have the daily chart along with my current Elliot wave picture. There have been 5 waves up from the low. Which indicates the beginning of a larger 5 wave sequence OR the early stages of a Zig Zag ABC correction . I am leaning toward a zig zag correction. Nevertheless, we should now be looking for a pull back toward the 50% or 61.8% fibonacci retracement level, also see below.
To make matter more bearish, today's daily candle painted a hammer reversal. The April 17th candle close (iii) should have served as a warning for traders that the market was exhausting.
In conclusion, there is a greater likelihood that the top is in for the rally. Price should settle near the top of this range before making its decisive move lower or higher. My bet is lower. Bias: Bearish.
New Lows?
I can't count how many articles I have read titled, "Lows will be retested" and Lows will not hold!" How about, I agree but also disagree. I personally think the low is in right now, but I do not think this is the end of the bear market. In my opinion, I think the market has been in a correction since October 2018 and the correction will continue for another year or two. I'll leave that analysis for another post. Until then, have a great evening!
Sq may hold a good trend up10 EMA crossing 50, god obv trend and decent MACD. 10% seems doable in the short term imo.
SQ small break up out of ascending wedge into the earnings callWatching SQ closely, this is very bullish... last few days we've seen SQ be in the money on the 3/6 $85 call.
Long.
"SQ" BearishThis is likely to go down. value and future growth expected last year was much higher last year than today. yet it is hovering around that consolidation price of 60. It is likely that this is going down a lot. What is your thoughts.
SQ Bearish Triangle Pattern Looking for SQ to drop lower into wave c as a critical trendline has been broken and we're aiming to establish some shorts on SQ with this rebound
SQ Critical Support Trendline Broken, Bearish Impulsive WaveSQ has broken the critical trendline support. Look to either establish short term bearish positions targeting the downside. OR keep your powder dry, and wait for SQ to drop further into the 16-17 range to establish longer term LONGs.
SGX:SIA - A very long descending triangleI dont like where SGX:C6L Singapore Airlines is heading. This is a very very very long descending triangle. SIA might have bottomed here or it might be facing tougher times ahead. I am leaning toward the latter and I would not catch a falling knife right now. Until there's a clearer picture, i would stay away.
Square Inc. (SQ) OBV is encouragingIf you are a believer that volume precedes price, then you must love the OBV action on the Square Inc. (SQ) daily chart..
Breaking out of the rangeSQ breaking out of consolidation, fantastic earnings, market is unbelievably oversold. I think we see $98 or higher soon.
THE WEEK AHEAD: SQ EARNINGS; SMH, XOP, GDX, GDXJEARNINGS:
SQ (77/59) announces Wednesday after market close and has the volatility metrics I'm looking for out an earnings-related volatility contraction play -- implied in the 70th percentile or greater over the past 52-weeks and 30-day at or greater than 50%.
Pictured here is an SQ April 17th 72.5/100 short strangle camped out around the 20 delta paying 3.55 on a buying power effect of 8.37 (42.4%) and delta/theta metrics of .66/7.78. For those high on defined, consider the 65/70/95/100, paying 1.58 (46.2% credit received as a function of buying power effect).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK/30-DAY IMPLIED AND SHOWING THE EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE:
SMH (73/30), May
XLE (63/23), July
USO (51/37), April
XBI (48/30), June
XOP (45/37), May
FXI (40/23), August
GDX (40/29), May
GDXJ (38/33), May
EWZ (26/27), June
I didn't get an opportunity to do a ton last week beyond take off a few setups in profit, so this is probably an opportunity to build up theta pile in stuff that I don't have plays in currently and to add to stuff via delta under hedge that has experienced an up tick in volatility over the past several days.
BROAD-MARKET ORDERED BY RANK/30-DAY IMPLIED AND SHOWING THE EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE:
QQQ (59/23), September
SPY (43/17), November
IWM (42/19), September
EEM (37/19), September
In spite of the expansion of volatility over the last several days, broad market isn't paying fabulously in shorter duration, so if you're going to play, look to start out small, add small over time, and take profit somewhat aggressively.
FUTURES:
/GC (70/15)
/CL (51/36)
/NG (47/39)
/ZS (43/19)
/ES (42/17)
/SI (33/89)
/ZW (24/24)
/ZC (23/13)
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
VIX finished the week at 17.08 with the March, April, and May /VX futures contracts trading at 17.05, 17.33, and 17.09 respectively. It's tough to divine what /VX futures traders' thought processes are here, but it looks like they may be focused on the exogenous event of the year -- the expiry around the general elections, where there is a huge term structure "hump" from September (currently trading at 17.75) to October (20.55), with the remainder of the preceding structure being fairly flat in the interim. There is a mere .70 differential between the March contract price and the September one which I regard as unusually flat, which doesn't make for good term structure trades. Naturally, at some point, the term structure may adjust to a more "standard look," but in the mean time, look to add short to VIX derivatives (VXX, UVXY) on pops to VIX > 20% via short call vertical or long put vertical with a break even at or above where the underlying is currently trading and shooting for one-third the width in credit (if a credit spread; don't pay more than 2/3rds the width if a debit spread).
