$SQ Entry Target HIT$SQ Target HIT
So the original target (posted Oct 10th) was 154 and that was hit, so I will be looking for an entry here soon (probably tomorrow). Nicely positioned close to the 180EMA on the weekly. I could see it going a little bit under and that would be a great place to start.
If we see a nice juicy market selloff I’ll look to the June 17 100 put, but for now the 149-154 range looks like a good place to start a position again…
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I usually trade both ways, but lately I’ve been focusing more to the downside because of how high the market is. It makes more sense to sell puts right now, and I’m usually at Target 2.
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I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence.
I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news.
Very often you have to look at my charts from the perspective of where I’m looking to sell puts. But I also do open positions still once in a while.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can.
Have fun, y’all!!
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SQ
$SQ PERFECT BUY ZONE I am personally looking to buy a ton of shares in the IRA acc and also I am looking to buy some longs expiring 2023 this one will for sure be a banger. A big percentage of payment processors in the US are SQ payment processors meaning all businesses will continue to use Square payments
SQ - fib fractalHello,
I see a similar “lobbing over” fractal on a smaller time frame in our recent history.
In the previous example, we took a small bounce off of the .50 Fib level, before continuing on down to the .618.
In this current situation, we have also picked up some support on the .50 fib retracement level. I am interested to see if history will repeat itself with a move down to the 120’s?
For reference, I took the bars pattern from before, and stretched it out to fit the current. It fits the S&R vectors fairly well as well.
Good Luck, Godspeed, Love & Light!
SQ displaying sign of reversalHaving drop 40% from the peak, I'm seeking a sign of reversal of SQ. Checking the 1H chart, the last 3 local minimums are only 5% different. 1H chart SMA20 already crossed SMA60, and tallying with oversold RSI from 15 Dec to 20 Dec. Price trend up since then.
Buy @ 167
Stop loss @ 158
Profit @ 192
Profit to loss ratio 2.9
SQ (SQUARE) Big Shorting opportunity aheadToday were taking a look at SQ (SQUARE)
So SQ made a big move down for earnings around the $225 level.
This level is widely being considered as a "buy the dip" opportunity which very well may be. However obviously we are offering a different perspective and heres why:
Reason 1:
We spend more than 3x the effort (activity) on August 2nd than we did on February 16th to make the same level highs. (relatively, weekly outlook)
So if we have more participants and cant breach a new level we have to consider that perhaps long isnt the direction.
Reason 2: 235-240 zone was a big area that held as support for nearly 5 months. We finally broke down and closed from that level. So for Operators to immediately reclaim that level is just a less than probable event.
Reason 3: Although not very clear it appears we have completed the B corrective wave and are well into our C distribution wave. We are referencing Elliot waves here. A modest 1:1 ration gets us to the 200-208 destination. Note: 1.5x and 2x distribution waves are no stranger.
There are a few more things happening here that are subjective that I will leave off such as harmonic patterns and the overall type of bearish structure we are in. In this case I dont think we need to add that to the confluence. Theres enough to suggest a lower price is more likely than not going to be realized.
As stated I like the 235 to 240 maybe even 242 area for shorts/puts to be initiated.
If you were to go into a lower time frame like the 4hr or the hourly you can find a much more precise entry point with a more favorable risk profile if not this would be a 1:1 trade short.
Inside the current correction on SQToday, we will take a look at Square INC.
The main context for the price is the previous corrective structure (white lines). In August, the price apparently made a breakout which then got back into the structure once again, creating a secondary structure (yellow lines)
We always work with the idea that the price moves between zones of the same degree, so, in this case, we expect the price to reach the lower zone of the current structure (support level)
IF that happens, we want to observe a breakout of the inner trendline (white line inside the yellow structure). IF that happens, we will wait for a small retest, and then we expect a bullish movement towards the higher zone of the current correction (shared area between the primary and secondary corrective patterns.)
The filters we are using to validate our view are:
a) Contact with the support level
b) Breakout of the inner descending trendline
c) retest
IF all the previous items are true, then:
d) Wait for a bullish impulse towards the higher zone of the correction if we observe a clear breakout of the small retest we are looking for.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to add your view/chart or any comment about this. ;)
Omicron fear?A thanksgiving not exactly calm, that of 2021, ruined by a really black Friday on the financial markets.
Omicron, the name of the new variant, is frightening.
We know that markets are driven by two main feelings, fear and euphoria. A nd it is my, our job, as traders, to stay away from both of these feelings, which do nothing but make us lose money and do the exact opposite of what should be done.
Those who know me know that I am absolutely a realistic person, I try to analyze the situation, without ever panicking at the moment, so I brilliantly overcome the coronavirus crisis, buying when everyone was selling and enduring even important drawdowns, only to be repaid.
Now, I’m certainly not saying that we are dealing with another V shape from -30% as in 2020, also because, those who have a bit of intelligence know that, given that we are talking about viruses, we will always have in front of us. of mutations, is its nature.
We must accept that we will have to live with it, using the weapons that science provides us.
Consequently, next week, considering that while I am writing to you news continues to arrive on the appearance of the variant in every European state, it is very likely that fear will continue to prevail, causing further declines, which by the way, as I have been writing for a while of time, they would be healthy.
All right but, when to buy?
And above all what?
The crux of the matter is the tightness of the vaccines to t he Omicron variant.
If, as has happened with the variants that have appeared so far, the protection is solid, then we could see a correction that could not go beyond 10-15% creating buying opportunities for a short Christmas rally.
If, on the other hand, vaccines should prove ineffective, rest assured that volatility will rise and the correction will be more marked.
Never as in these moments, you have to be calm and wait for the news.
As for the markets, I believe we will see a sudden rotation in tech stocks, digital payments, and video games. As well as obviously social networks and e-commerce.
Beware of pharmaceuticals, because they are already very inflated, except perhaps Moderna, which has just returned from an important pull-bak, and Novavax which is in the pipeline with a new vaccine.
Those who follow me know that I am already positioned on companies such as Activision, Visa, Square, Amazon and Facebook (Meta). Accumulations could arrive on these stocks if they suffer a decline caused by a general sell-off.
If we talk about accumulation for the long term, it is precisely the companies that work in tourism and which are related to oil, those that could suffer the greatest discounts and consequently the best purchasing opportunities. I’m talking about Airbnb, a company I strongly believe in, where I have an excellent average purchase price, and I will certainly buy more shares. Attention also to airlines such as Delta and American Airlines and obviously attention to ETCs on oil because a significant drop would create further buying opportunities on a commodity that has given me (and I hope you too) 100% earnings in 2021.
Possible increases in gold in the medium to long term, both from seasonality and obviously as a safe haven asset, even if during the first appearance of the covid, this was not exactly the case.
The resilience of cryptocurrencies should also be verified. Absent extremely volatile, absolutely not to be considered a safe-haven asset, has the undoubted advantage of being decorrelated from the numerous problems that can afflict traditional financial markets. There may also be a quick rotation here which could cause significant rises.
I greet you and I wish you a happy Sunday, quoting Warren Buffett because it is the wise men that we must look at in moments of emotion: “Be greedy when others are afraid and be afraid when others are greedy”
Happy trading and stay safe.
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
SQ short idea $220pI've got $220 puts for $SQ expiring in 3 weeks, I think $SQ could break here. Once it breaks $225. So far the $227.4 level is being defended with some volume but seems weak here. I think $220 can trade and even continue to fall into that tiny gap around $160 in a few more weeks. Time will tell. Size accordingly. A bear put spread play is also not a bad idea selling the $215p and buying $220 puts to lower risk.
Square, 22 Nov. Levels to WatchSQ declines further in a wave (v) with decreasing volume, so that we can look at two specific levels if bulls step back in.
Elliott:
We can count a wave (v) in blue. In the most optimistic long-term EW count, the end of this wave could potentially complete the entire ABC correction since 5 August. The idea is to build long exposure, just in case this EW count is correct.
Geometry:
The .65 fib is marked with the blue box. The 1.618 extension of wave (i) is located here, as well as the 222 Gann level. The pitchfork support is located lower towards 210.
Gann:
Support: 222 and 193
Resistance: 253
How I trade it:
A move above the pitchfork median at 234 would indicate that bulls try to be back in control. An entry above the pitchfork median keeps a potential re-accumulation chop below us, and we protect ourselves from a premature entry that could go wrong.
SQ (Bearish)From this chart a falling flag is clearly being portrayed. With highest resistance being $289 and SQ trading right at support, a break of that support can lead it to fall down to another stronger support level it has retained ( blue horizontal line ) . Looks ready fall and rsi is low too. If it doesn’t, will most likely trade within the flag, but a move downwards at around $190 might be coming.
Are Markets Overvaluing These 3 Stocks? LULU, NFLX, SQTwo recent stock events have called into question how markets are pricing stocks. The first event is the OG meme stock, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), hitting a one trillion-dollar market cap. And the second event is EV newcomer Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN), surpassing the valuation of Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) after listing on the NASDAQ.
One way to gauge how overvalued a stock may be is to find its multiple (aka, Price-To-Earnings ratio). In the case of Tesla, it’s multiple, as of writing, is ~350. In the case of Rivian, it doesn’t have any sales to speak of, so a multiple for this Company is not discernible (as reported by Bloomberg; “Rivian is now the biggest US company with no sales”). Investors can be concerned about high multiples if the Company in question is unlikely to grow its profitability to a level that better reflects the stock’s current price. Tesla and Rivian are just two companies that analysts (incl. Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk) commonly point out as overvalued.
Keep reading to learn what other 3 stocks market analysts commonly categorise as overvalued.
Are Markets Overvaluing These 3 Stocks? LULU, NFLX, SQ
Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU)
Several outlets, including Forbes, noted the athleisure wear company to be overvalued in the first half of 2021. Yet, difficult to discourage, investors have continued to support the Company and further bumped up the stock’s price. LULU is currently trading at an 15% premium above its first-half peak price (US $404 vs US $465). Its current valuation places its multiple at ~74x earnings.
The momentum behind the stock is driven by its consistent earnings report beats and ambitious sales targets set by management, which are being hit or surpassed with surprising frequency. The Company’s outlook is buoyed by a growing (and incredibly loyal) customer base and higher margins. In this way, Lululemon stock may well be within a fair valuation if it continues to ride the growth momentum in which it is currently swept up.
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX)
Numerous Analysts were calling Netflix overvalued in 2020, even as the streaming giant reported subscriber growth beats during quarantine lockdowns and beyond. Bearish comments would call attention to the cash-burn needed by Netflix for the foreseeable future to maintain its industry leadership and satisfy its growing user base.
Bullish sentiment could counter this argument by pointing to the Company improving operating margins (e.g., Netflix has improved its operating margin from 16% to 23.5% YTD). However, Netflix does not include content generation spending as an operating cost. Instead, it is considered a fixed cost for the business. Yet, suppose Netflix is going to be burning cash producing content for the foreseeable future. In that case, the improving operating margin might be considered no more an accounting trick than a meaningful metric.
As of writing, Netflix shares are trading at US ~$690, indicating a multiple of approximately ~62 earnings.
Square (NYSE: SQ)
The digital payment provider Square appears to be firmly in the camp of overvalued tech stock. At least, according to Morningstar analysts, SQ is trading at more than double its “fair value estimate” (US ~$230 vs. $112) with a Price-To-Earnings value of ~240. SQ shares have not traded at US $112.00 or below since July 13, 2020.
While SQ does deliver on growth, it still has a very long way to go to justify its ~240x multiple. Square’s dubious long-term outlook is compounded by the increasingly tense competition from PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) and Fiserv’s (NASDAQ: FISV) Clover application. While younger than Square’s payment solution, the latter is already processing more payments across the US, and importantly, growing at a faster pace.
Square Analysis 16.11.2021Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
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Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!