Tips For Buying DipsFirst of all, dips happen all the time. There are always pullbacks in price and they happen for various reasons. Here’s a checklist I quickly wrote down for myself. The chart here shows Square, mostly because it has been on an epic run! Congrats to those who have enjoyed it. I was once a proud owner of this name, but sold after it seemed to get a little "frothy." Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments after reading my tips for buying dips:
1. Always know why you’re buying now and not waiting patiently. Why is this the dip to buy and not another one? Take the time to do all the research you need.
2. You should do enough research to explain why now is the time to buy to anyone. And it should be understandable. Sometimes writing it down helps. Being able to explain it in a simple format is equally important.
3. Have a plan. Know where you will exit if it comes to that. Because that does happen. The old saying plan the trade before you make the trade. It's way too tempting to just rush in and buy without any regard for the necessary plan.
4. Sometimes a dip can turn into a correction or crash. Reminding yourself of this can slow down any impulsive actions. That's really the key here. Avoid impulsive buying. I have done this many times in my career and it has rarely ever worked well.
5. Find technical indicator that works well for you. Learn to love it. Study it. Understand why and what it does. It can be a handy tool to confirm your process or look for the conditions you want. On this chart I am having some fun with the open source script Moving Regression Prediction Bands . I like scripts like this because it's using statistical method to show price anomalies.
6. I also like using the Price Range tool to measure the percentage change in the dip. And compare it over time. I've listed three corrections on this chart. The key is to get a sense of where price has come from. Others might use fundamentals and wait for certain ratios to align, for example an attractive PE ratio or something like it. It’s up to you, but having a trusty tool can be of help.
7. Timing the markets is really hard. You can also view dips as a time to lower your cost basis in your favorite positions or as a potential way to swing trade. But once again, that's probably something you want to define *before* diving in.
8. The saying “Never risk money you can’t afford to lose” is especially true in dips and volatility. Additionally, if you are looking to buy a dip, there's no reason to buy all at once. Take your time. Wait... Wait...
9. Look at your account history and study your previous trades in similar times. Learn what's worked and what has not.
10. There are no easy answers to markets, but using the right tools and following some basic risk management principles can be of help. That's the key point to this post.
Hope you found it interesting. They are a few rules I have in mind. Please feel to share your own in the comments. Or even better, publish your own idea. I will try to do this again as well. There are some other topics I look forward to adding to this post.
Square
If you are holding Amazon stock reevaluate your positions!Since 1998 Amazon rewarded the shareholders with 77165% gain, one of the most incredible gains of all times. During the same time period, NASDAQ has gained only 1139%, which means Amazon gained almost 68 times. When you take a closer look at Amazon you will notice something has changed in the last 4 months.
Amazon the 3rd biggest market cap company in the world after Apple and Microsoft failed to surpassed the September 2nd all times high, although the revenue and earnings growing reasonably!
While Nasdaq gained 9.53% Amazon lost 5% which is very unusual for a company gained 68 times the index in the last 23 years!
When a company performance getting better and better but fails to reach new highs, it means the longterm outlook for the company has changed a lot..!
The main reason could be new online retailers which challenged Amazon by their innovative business models, look at Etsy and Square with 85%, 45% gain in the same time period..!
The golden decades of Amazon passed, and buying and holding the shares could not make the share holders like before, invest in the new challengers..!
BTC stagnation might end soonSquare (SQ) just announced they have bought $170 million in Bitcoin within their fourth-quarter and full-year results. They added it was part of their ongoing commitment to the cryptocurrency.
This might be a catalyst for growth out of the current stagnation in the market.
Ref. investors.squareup.com/news/news-details/2021/Square-Inc.-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2020-Results/default.aspx
This information is for education purposes only and you should not execute any trade based on it. Please do your own research.
Square is shifting gears! Low risk 65% gain in < 3 months.Square ( NYSE:SQ ) is a serious growth company and is certainly a long-term investment. I'm bullish on NYSE:SQ long term, but I believe especially today, the stock has presented us with an excellent buying opportunity. As usual, I don't talk fundamentals. I'm only looking at the chart from a technical analysis perspective. Sometimes, after a stock is running inside an ascending parallel channel, there comes a point when it seems to be dropping below the channel, but the reality is it's only changing gears to enter a an even faster ascending parallel channel. It's kind of like the small moment of deceleration a racer has to suffer in order to shift to a higher gear, a phenomenon that coming generations will never know thanks to Tesla's single-speed transmission taking over the world. Anyway, back to NYSE:SQ . Let's look at the chart.
I have two parallel channels. The current one, and the new one I expect price to be bound within in the near future. I also have a set of steeper-inclined parallel lines which delineate local bullish movements. I believe this inclination will keep supporting price much longer in the coming bullish moves. I also believe that it will be the slope of a parallel channel later this year, but I'll sit on that idea for now.
Based on that, I drew a price path prediction. My target is $355 in 76 days, by 7 April 2021. My stop loss is at $195. Picking the stop loss was rather hard and somewhat arbitrary. I picked it based on historic RSI levels, how long I expect a drop to last in case a drop occurs, and basic support and resistance levels.
Most importantly, the last close has hit the very bottom of the parallel channel. My estimation is that this is a golden buying opportunity. My only worry is that even though the parallel channel has held the price four times since September 2020, it has failed one time (30 Oct - 3 Nov) which I marked in the red circle. It wasn't a serious break though. However, we must be prepared for it to happen again. That's why I set the stop loss a little bit lower. However, I am confident it will hold the price, and even if it doesn't, it will make an even better buying opportunity. And even if it breaks lower, Square is a solid investment and is certainly a hold.
Conclusion :
If you're in it for a trade, then decide the size of your position depending on how much you are willing to lose. If you're willing to lose $100, and our stop loss is at -10%, then open a trade with $1000 and set your stop loss.
If you're in this for investment, this is a good opportunity to add to your long-term position. So, buy and hold.
Schaeffer's Top Stock Picks for 2021: Square (SQ)Every day for the next two weeks, we're going to highlight one of Schaeffer's top 14 picks for 2021. Up today is a popular name from a few years ago that still has room to run. To access the entirety of the 2021 report, click here .
Online payment provider Square Inc. (NYSE:SQ) has been a stock to watch over the past five years. The equity has dominated the charts since its 2015 initial public offering (IPO), and is now up nearly 1,700%. This surge has only gotten more impressive in 2020, with shares up roughly 250%. There is still plenty of pent-up pessimism surrounding SQ, however, indicating the equity still has room to run -- the perfect pick for options bulls.
Short interest is still inching higher, and now makes up almost 8% of SQ’s available float, or nearly three days’ worth of pent-up buying power. Should some of this positive price action begin to spook bulls, an unwinding of shorts could put additional wind at the equity’s back.
An unraveling of bearish sentiment among the brokerage bunch could give SQ a boost, too. The stock sports a surprising number of "hold" or worse ratings, while 19 of the 34 analysts in coverage call Square stock a "buy" or better. Adding to this, the 12-month consensus price target of $197.01 is a 10% discount to current levels, which might inspire some of these analysts to lift their estimates soon.
Bitcoin Mid- to Long-term analysis + Short-term bearish swing.Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) has been one of the trickiest assets to forecast, until institutions hopped on, and now it's THE trickiest asset to forecast. So I will give my take on it and the factors I'm considering for my mid to long term analysis. I also give a short-term forecast. But since that can change very quickly, keep following this idea for updates.
I would like to thank my followers. In less than a month, I went from 4 to 50 followers, and I hope I can provide you quality analysis and discussions. Thanks to all of you.
First I will point out that I am bullish on Bitcoin long-term. I believe it can easily touch $200k during this year. I am, however, expecting a correction of about 50% to 60% from the all-time-high in the short-term. Just the usual Bitcoin behaviour, nothing big. The chart shows a possible scenario that looks neat on my chart. Bitcoin, however, has its own way of looking neat. The path I drew is too long to be accurate, so don't take it as a strict guide, but rather to help you identify points of support and reversal. Now let's get to the analysis.
One new factor that was absent from the Bitcoin space is institutions, government and regulatory bodies that have recently joined in on the action. Paypal, Square and others are buying big amounts of Bitcoin. The SEC just started prosecuting Ripple, finally! And Tether keeps creating virtual currency, perhaps trying to compete with the Federal Reserve. Anyway, let's dive into each of these:
Paypal:
Paypal started selling Bitcoin in Oct 2020 to customers in the US. And they are planning to expand internationally soon.
Paypal does not allow withdrawal of Bitcoin from their system. You can only buy, keep it there, and sell.
Paypal will keep buying Bitcoin as long as they are anticipating demand from their customers. Similarly, they will sell their Bitcoin when customers are selling. They are not interested in taking a position in Bitcoin, neither short nor long.
Paypal have to buy and sell over the counter (OTC), and probably in large chunks. That activity does not reflect on the open markets except after a delay. That is called delayed price discovery. Suppose that Paypal bought a large chunk. Then, open markets would suddenly discover after a while that that large chunk of Bitcoin has been removed from circulation. This leads to a sudden spike in price. Likewise, when Paypal sells, some while later, a big sudden plunge occurs. That is how delayed price discovery causes volatility.
This demand from customers can be hard to anticipate and can go out of control, especially after Paypal expands its Bitcoin offering internationally. This mean that Paypal will find themselves forced to take a position in Bitcoin. They will have to bet on one direction or the other. Paypal would certainly not like volatility in their balance sheets.
They could choose to suspend the service at any time which will create more volatility.
They could choose to convert customers' balances from bitcoins to USD at any time and either keep the bitcoin for themselves or sell all of it, creating a huge move in the market, depending on their decision. Keeping it might not necessarily mean it goes up.
In short: Paypal will create volatility in Bitcoin , as if that's what we've been missing!
Regulation:
Almost all Bitcoin gateways are asking for KYC, even individual sellers do, and they even proof of ownership of the Bitcoin wallet. Coinbase already blew any hope of protecting your privacy. They would simply give away information to government whenever requested. It's becoming harder and harder to keep your ownership of Bitcoin private.
Paypal not allowing Bitcoin withdrawals is also regulation, and I suspect that it either stems out of Paypal trying to adhere to existing government policy or it is a smart move by Paypal to attract government cooperation and support. The reason I say this is.. imagine this: People can now buy Bitcoin. They can fulfil their curiosity, their investment desires, but at the same time, they cannot withdraw Bitcoins out of the Paypal system. This means that control is in the hands of Paypal. The government would love that. Everything is monitored. No more threats of money laundering, black market trades or siphoning funds to unwanted parties.
All of this will keep Bitcoin long-time hodlers to keep hodling. The increase of regulation and the restriction of freedom simply creates incentives for hodling and buying, not selling.
In short: Regulation adds value and demand to Bitcoin, not the opposite.
Tether:
Tether have always been under suspicion of minting more of their virtual currency without real USD cover. They were subpoenaed before and they are always in danger of an SEC crackdown.
If an SEC crackdown or any kind of government legal action does occur, the value of Tether currency will fall to the ground. Why? Because people will be selling. And how do you sell Tether? There is no other way except buying Bitcoin or some altcoin with your Tether, which means that all the market cap of Tether will move towards the crypto market, and mostly to Bitcoin of course.
In short: Tether crashing will cause a huge rise in the price of Bitcoin, not a crash.
Summary of Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin will remain volatile even after adoption by institutions.
Bitcoin is long-term going up, not down.
The Short-term Bearish Swing:
I expect Bitcoin to retest the Dec 2017 high of around $20k. The sooner it happens the better, because we won't need to worry about it afterwards.
I've drawn a path that delineates one point of resistance and three points of support. I drew it a few hours ago when Bitcoin was still at $34870. So far, it has gone up following my path. I know that doesn't count, but if the rest of the path doesn't work, then I hope I can get credit for the first few hours of it XD. Keep watching my updates on this idea as I adjust my short-term view as Bitcoin proves me wrong short-term. And let's hope in the next few hours, it does respect my resistance point.
What I'm sure of is that Bitcoin will be volatile, there will be many false breakouts and bull traps, and that $20k is not too low for it to hit in the coming month.
What you should do in this case is buy the dips and hold. There are two methods of setting up orders on expected points of support. Say we have three points of support where we expect to catch a dip. The first method is equal division, i.e. to divide the capital you are willing to invest into three equal portions, and buy with each portion as price hits your dip target. The second method, which I favor, is bigger orders as you go lower. This way, you don't miss a buy if it turns out that a higher support was the reversal point, and at the same time, if it does reach your expected bottom, then your average buying price is affected the most by the bottommost buy lowering it more than when using the first method.
Summary: Dollar-cost-average, Hodl, and stay safe :)