AAPL Squeeze PlayNASDAQ:AAPL is offering some excellent risk : reward to the upside in the 160-170 price zone for a longer-term (daily/weekly) trade. Closing the week above the weekly bottom of the Ichimoku cloud and 100 SMA should set up for a potential short squeeze following a weekly gap that opened below both. an entry either on a pullback as pictured around 168, or wait for a daily close over the weekly 100sma around 171 would both work. There's a delicious gap between ~169.50 - 174 from April of 2018, and in the last 2 weeks, this zone has been passed through relatively easily (similarly to what we saw in April). Finally, bullish divergence on the RSI on the daily and potentially on the weekly as well. Liberal bullish targets would be the weekly or the daily 50 sma, or the down trendline from ATH, whichever is hit first. A more conservative target would be just below 185, which acted as previous resistance and then support before the run in late summer of this year.
A daily close or gap below the lows from May likely induces some selling, at least intra-day, so if you don't want to own AAPL long-term, a stop loss below 160 may work, but realize that the path higher could include a test below and close above the weekly 100 sma /Ichimoku cloud. Note the orange weekly Chinkou Span/ lagging line on the ichimoku system appears to be bouncing off the weekly 50 sma.. Potentially bullish confirmation that this line will act as support in the near future once again. So starting a position anywhere between 150-180 in longer-term accounts seems like a reasonable plan.
If I already owned AAPL, I'd still consider adding anywhere in the 160's. If we do see the market hold and we don't get a weekly close below Mondays daily close at 169.60, it's possible it is never tested again. The monthly chart suggests we either hold around here or could be headed for 135-140. This also means a failed attempt to squeeze higher and a weekly close below in the next few days could set up a very nice short-sided trade.
Squeeze
Why most BTC long-term charts is WRONGHey all! Welcome to this short but interesting BTC long term analysis. I see a lot of people literally PANICKING atm. because of the break of our current long term log-trend. What people might not realise is that these types of trends is NOT working well with BTC over the long term. Just look at the chart. Over the last 8-9 years we've had 3 long term logarithmic trends, which all have been failing. Even though we broke through the trend back at $5, did it matter? We did eventually go to 19k.
Seriously speaking, people need to relax and just go with the flow. These market cycles happens all the time in different markets, so it's clear it's many "new" people in here which have never ever been in a bear-market. We have not yet found and tested the trend I got in this chart, which I personally got more faith in;
BLX got the most BTC history from back at $0,05 showing all the cycles and big-trends. They've all failed, but we are still not at $5, are we? See for yourself
Agree? Hit the +1!
BBW 3D low volatilityI posted this on Twitter last week, the Bollinger band width on 3D timeframe has only been below the 0.1 value 3 times before, each time resulted in a significant rally.
The yellow figures represent how many bars it stayed under 0.1. It is currently on 5 consecutive bars, so although it could squeeze for a lot longer, I expect it won't last much longer.
I'm long (with stops in place of course).
$CATM bullish stochastic cross at support level Interesting opportunity at CATM with a risk reward ratio of about 3:1.
CATM showing a bullish stochastic cross today at support level.
Short float is at 15.8 % - might lead to some upside momentum in case they start covering
BCH - BREAKOUT - Imminent - Micro-WaveBITFINEX:BCHUSD is on the cusp of breaking out.
We have completed a Micro-Wave.
See Related for further analysis.
Will update.
-AB
Selfkey - BTCvolatility squeeze into upcoming release..
Might be an interesting play
low risk / high reward trade
XRP Buy Candles Triggered Before Major MoveHere we can see the DBT Squeeze Buy Candle triggered on the 2hour time frame right before the major move up, and again before the second move up. These Buy Candles triggered on almost every time frame.
The first move was 21% from the close of the first candle. The second move was 34.84% from the close of the buy candle (even though you would of entered much earlier). The first take profit candle was triggered at 14%, the second buy candle has not formed a take profit candle on the 2hour, but has formed on lower time frames.
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 204)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis /position: “This bounce should provide a good opportunity to build a short, if you are not already in one. There is major resistance from $6,375 - $6,667” / Short ETH:BTC from 0.03143 | Short ETH:USD from $211.96 | Short EOS:ETH from 0.0252326
Patterns: Descending Triangle, head and shoulders
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,233 - $6,250 | R: $6,350
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulled back yesterday and appear to be taking off again.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0055%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -2.81% | 26 = -4.74%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.05% | 128 = -10.08%
Volume: Big hourly volume on sell off
FIB’s: 0.786 = $6,377 | 0.886 = $6,248 | 1.618 = $5,330
Candlestick analysis:
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud continues to act as resistance
TD’ Sequential: 4h doji indicates incoming volatility
Visible Range: Testing point of control with 1m - 12m lookback
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +0.94% | 24h = +1.73% | 1w = +1.32% | 2w = -0.77% | 1m = +0.12%
Bollinger Bands: Last spike retested MA
Trendline: Trendline I drew yesterday was holding strong, last rally broke through it.
Daily Trend: Bullish
Fractals: Up has $6,555 did not break on last pump (yet) | Down at $6,050
On Balance Volume: Starting to move up faster than price on daily
ADX: Still indicates trendless market
Chaikin Money Flow: Bear div’ on daily
RSI (30 setting): Weekly = 48.84Daily = 46.18
Stoch: Re crossed bullish on daily
Summary: Buckle up your seat belts and get ready for some volatility! If you have forgotten how hard and fast these markets can move then this morning was a bit of a wake up call. Last week I said that I wanted to see a quick spike up to $6,700 in the form of a short squeeze to act as a shakeout before the breakdown.
The pump briefly broke through the horizontal resistance line that I have been watching for two weeks. However it quickly pulled back down and formed a nasty wick on the 1 hour chart. Now I am watching for the price to re explore that wick before continuing the down trend.
These wicks being re explored can often provide low risk entries. I like to set sell orders around the halfway to three quarter market of the wick, in this case that would be $6,490 - $6,525 and I place the stop loss slightly above the top of the wick ($6,601).
As usual I would strongly prefer to short ETH’ due to how much weaker it has been at every step of the way.
I also have an order set to short EOS:BTC at 0.0007474. Click here to read that analysis.
Squeeze from M30 to H12, big volatility expected soonOn all the time frames from M30 to H12 volatility is very low but on the 4H it hasn't been under this value since Jan 2017 so we expect to see high volatility in the next 24-48 hours. How can you trade this? You use Stop Buy above the upper band and Stop Sell below the lower band. This is not the most accurate strategy, usually there are fake-outs so don't forget to put a stop loss. We will place our orders above the green band and under the red band.
Bitcoin, The Great Shakeout| Short Squeeze FractalThere's a short squeeze brewing, all the bulls know it.
Perma Bears are still shorting. What's the big picture trade?
Well, our previous long entry at $6040 for the squeeze was viable and currently still in profits.
A hedge Short was opened at $7370
Analysis of the previous squeeze occurring on 4/7 demonstrates a possible fractal in 6 phases:
Phase 1
Swing low, followed by an initial peak ,
Which are labeled on both charts.
(swing low) (initial Peak),
During that period BTCUSDSHORTS declined.
Phase 2
Initial peak to HL (higher low)
Once again labeled on the chart.
BTCUSDSHORTS climbs
Then Phase 3
C1
C for channel, in both cases a rising wedge. That bounced off 61.8% fib
Previous fractal was a perfect bounce, this time around, not quite.
The end result is a LH, lower high
BTCUSDHSHORTS pullbacks, then goes parabolic
Phase 4
Knife
A pullback from LH @ CI, to form HL2 @ fibo %23.6
Expected current target for BTC HL2 $6400
Phase 5
C2
Projected in the near future, yet present on 4/7 fractal.
C2 should draw in even more Shorts to squeeze.
Climbing from fibo %23.6 to %50
Phase 6
Final Shakeout, Drop back down to fibo %38.2,
Then the rest is history.
Initial Target after squeeze, is $10,000 @ Fibo % 161.8
If you're asking why,
Well observing the Shorts chart,
Bulls need to give up hope, and bears need to believe they're actually winning.
The objective: increase leveraged shorts for a mega squeeze
burn out all the bull hopium
Shake everyone out,
then finally Moon it :)
Watch out Bitcoin Fkery is around the corner~Just another theory of mine.. short squeeze... but not in the way you think...
The price absorption at the peak of this rally where longs closed, shorts opened and price was held before this massive dip for Bitcoin got me wondering perhaps this was the same group all along since the start of the 415m LIQ...
based off the previous theory of mine that was pretty spot on...
twitter.com
but maybe for the wrong reasons...
Bull flag formingLooks like a bullish flag forming after many attempts to break above the trendline. Serious support at 100 and 200 ema where my limit buy is set.
Bitcoin Looking StrongSo the price of bitcoin went about 200 dollars above my target and Right now I am using the bitfinex chart because it is leading the way in terms of bullish strength, which makes sense because it also lead the way in bearish strength on the downfall. There is a possibility that if this strength persists it may be able to break out to make a higher high, above 8500, however, if it doesn't then the bulls on the exchange are fighting to get slaughtered. Also, it appears that a lot of the whales have shown their faces, buying and selling, opening large short sells a lot right now which I think is an interesting note, including a 10000 bitcoin worth of shorts, which I believe is owned predominantly by a small group of people or an individual. That's a big short, and it was a smart positioning, so these are definitely whales fighting it out or whales appearing to fight it out to get a good short position or any other realm of possibilities.
Right now in Bitcoin:
There is a strong channel and there is a symmetrical triangle in that channel, so it can break in either directions, if it does break downwards, I think the bottom of the channel will provide strong resistance, enough to catch it; however, there is a huge morning star inverted hammer, huge. And it marks a strong resistance at around 6430, a close above this wick would how strong bullish meaning and it would indicate a lot of weakness in the bears and it would also mean that the bulls will most likely test the 7700 to 7800 area. If something like this does occur, it may cause a short squeeze, a big one, but I do believe that short is smart money, because of the placement, its really truly phenomenal to witness smart money at play. If the support of the channel is broken, I believe the bears will most likely retest 6800 and I think it will most likely break.
Key Points:
1.) On Bitfinex, Bitcoin is in a strong ascending channel with a symmetrical triangle (in yellow) inside of the channel. The symmetrical triangle can break out either direction, but I do believe that it is more likely to break in a downwards direction because of the inverted hammer which I would like to add had more volume than any point on the rise and each rejection at the bottom, the price objectives of the symmetrical triangle are 7090 if it breaks out to the downside and 7455 if it breaks to the upside. However, I do think that the bottom trendline, could catch it. Please note: nearly all other exchanges do not show a symmetrical triangle or an ascending channel, instead they show a bearish wedge and a head and shoulder topping pattern. I will be posting an update of this on this thread.
2.) If the triangle breaks downwards, I do believe the bottom of the channel can catch it, however, if it does not get caught by the bottom of the channel, I believe that it will test 6800 and it will bounce to form the right should of the head and shoulder topping pattern, or it will completely roll over, because I have thought something would have been resistance supported by TA and it just fell through.
3.) One last thing to take note, is that there is a possible falling three methods* on the weekly, it was something I was keeping a close eye on because if it does come to fruition, it means there will be a huge drop incoming, it is important to question the validity of this though because the third rising candle shouldn't close above the support of the first weekly candle, and it closed about 200 above it. But that is text book falling three methods, in the real world, not everything can always be so clean.
*Falling three methods: about a 5 candle pattern, the first candle is a large decline, and the "three" which can be 2 or more than three but three would be best, should be within the price range of the much larger falling candle. The last candle, the final move of the candle stick pattern, is a significant decline roughly the size of the first candle stick.
Last Analysis:
BTC : The Paper Airplane fractal, get ready for landing Hello ! Second TV Idea in the pipe, my first one did react pretty good so I thought I would do some more.
I think the chart speaks for itself. I'm making these conclusions based on my own swing trading system that I will not fully disclose here. It works with a 86.2% success rate since October 2017. The fractal could indicate that further bearish momentum is in the works. This is why I would go short around 6800, or at maximum around 38.2 fib at 6880ish. Any stop loss around 7180 would be safe. I don't have any target down.. We could possibly simply retest the 6000 area. Maybe we break it, and things would get pretty ugly from there. I think we will see a clear direction on Monday, and then depending on the action, we can react accordingly.
The only thing making me tick is the amount of shorts currently opened. Check the BTCUSDSHORTS ticker for yourself. Now, when most people are saying "It's at all time high, we HAVE to get squeezed", even CNBC talking about it, I would like to point out the fact that in between April and now, there has been a really tremendous amount of people moving into leverage, just look at the overall BitMex volume. If there is further downwards momentum, I think shorts can reach 45K easily, why not even more, before getting some sort of squeeze.
Since we dropped in February, we have been making some sort of Wedge, or Triangle, that keeps making lower highs and lower lows. If we take in consideration the weekly Heikin Ashi, We have always seen a continuation from the top, to the bottom, and from bottom, to top. What I mean is that we never touched top, or bottom of the big wedge twice before reversing. We always touched the top, then made a new bottom, then made a new top... Etc. We perfectly touched 8.4 as new top of the wedge from the previous low at 5800. So we should see downwards momentum to find a new bottom. 5500 seems plausible. If we go up from here, it means a cycle is ending, and we have to chart again to find new scenarios. But again, if you're playing the odds on a statistical point of view, there is way more chances of us going down than going up.
I will update this idea as the trade develops. Remember that this is no financial advice, do your own research, have an open mind, and don't blindly listen strangers on the internet. Join the discussion ! Let's exchange ideas.