Squeeze
$GME rare opportunity 👁🗨
*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
Here @SimplyShowMeTheMoney we strive to educate our traders on the importance of being able to recognize rare occurrences in the market structure on a chart. Today GameStop $GME presented us with a rare opportunity in its structure that my team simply could not ignore. We watched $GME open at 12% and shoot up to around 20% before retracing all gains back down to the negative 1 hour before the final bell. This comes as we enter a busy earnings week with a 2-day fed meeting that begins tomorrow and numerous data reports that could ultimately dictate the direction of the feds and the market.
$GME is no stranger to making headlines. With midterm elections right around the corner we wouldn't be surprised if $GME made a ridiculous move in either direction.
My team was able to secure shares of $GME at $28 while it was red this afternoon. We have an automatic stop loss set at $27 due to the obvious risk factors associated with $GME.
Entry: $28
Stop loss: $27
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Is BTC forming a hyper Squeeze?According to Bollinger, there's one pattern that raises more questions
than any other aspect of Bollinger Bands. He calls it "the Squeeze."
As he puts it, his bands, "are driven by volatility, and the Squeeze is a
pure reflection of that volatility."
Alright then. There forms a pure squeeze seemingly triggering a volatility
heading our way. Either a sudden high volatility may attempt to drain to a
historical touchdown to about 85%, and the bottom is found. Or, the parabolic
rally may trigger with some kind of event bringing-in the confidence that's
quite much lost throughout.
Hypothesis: Holders' hope at 19k range (the squeeze, the diamond hands, the believers, the sustained bottom found).
83-85% drop from ATH at 11k range (the great squeeze insinuated volatility, the historic bottom found).
Great three taps at 4k range (conspiracy theory, managed manipulation, so-called diamond hands slippage).
And eventually the great reset at .5k range to eventually ZERO (Satoshi Nakamoto is someone around, watching,
developing Bitcoin V2, or a replacement, who knows the evolving technology impact fairly better than many
of the computer engineers and geniuses to date, foresees bitcoin failure (he didn't quite anticipate this much of energy
be consumed to mine, cost of electricity to be paid, and a handful of companies and people having a total control of
manufacturing ASICs, and is designing something else superior than Bitcoin to sustain Quantum era
attacks, mining equipment affordability so that all can mine, a new concept rebirth, sustainability, and so on).
Towel stock will have a glorious bounce. Good entry area now.OBV hasn’t even came close to falling back to its previous lows before BBBY’s run up in July/August.
In fact.. OBV hasn’t even broken down resistance.. it’s still holding a pretty strong bullish signal and share price is below previous lows in July..
Certainly share price is undervalued on the technical side.
Check out my ideas on GME because these stocks tie together in my personal opinion.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Bitcoin is reaching a critical stateLooking at the chart analysis, you can see a few things:
1. The Bollinger bands' upper and lower boundaries are squeezing, which likely means a big move is happening. If the price goes over the basis, it will most likely break upwards, while if the price continues being under the basis, then it will most likely break downwards.
2. The “Descending triangle” that has been forming since past month is coming to an end.
3. Bitcoin's volume has been decreasing ever since the descending triangle formed.
Due to these occurrences, Bitcoin is about to finally change its direction, and maybe end the sideways motion it had since August. This in turn will change the direction of the Crypto market.
This is not investing advice, and I will respect everybody's opinion. Feel free to say what you think about this study.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
(UPDATED)Revisiting my prior theory on creation of FTDs thru TTTInstead of explaining why I believe GameStop still has immense value, I am just going to make an update to my previous 3 posts on creation of “Failure to Delivers” through SWAPs and the short ETF, “TTT.”
Please check out my other posts if this type of stuff interests you, it is brand new information that just hasn’t been picked up by anyone yet, the correlation between TTT & GME is blatantly painful to look at, considering the amount of people who ignore it.
I strongly believe TTT is being manipulated to then also manipulate GME..
We’ve watched GME follow closer to SPY on intraday trading than apple, Microsoft, or even amazon!! WHY?! Crime is the answer… algorithms.. liquidity grabs.. it’s all one big game in which we will end up victorious this time.
Now.. for the reason you are all here.. looking at the updated chart above, you can clearly see that TTT has been going straight parabolic ever since we’ve dipped from over the 40’s.. interesting right?? Around when Mayo Man moved over half a billion dollars for “strategic setups.”
BS… my real opinion is the price has been even faker than it has ever been since August 8th. I believe this could potentially be the end game short ladder attack..
Mark my words..
Educate yourselves with my ideas on all of my other posts.. it’s okay if you disagree.
DRS
TO THE FKN MOOOOOOOOOOOOON
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
IM NOT SELLING
30 Minute TimeframeHere is the new indicator on the 30 min timeframe.
I wrote it to read daily SPX even in smaller timeframes so you can get more frequent updates on gamma and delta.
Combine with Ichimoku Cloud and some TA and you got some predictable outcomes to build hedging, swing trades or even scalping short squeeze bottoms.
Ascending Triangle is a perfect example of volatility compression.
Higher at top of triangle = Volatility
Rising lower trend line = Support
Vix is playing its part.
Below trendline = volatility compressing 🤷
Above trendline = volatility compressing 🤷
I think this sideways chop with squeezes higher or dumps overnight / AM continue until CPI on the 13th.
RBOB Bollinger Band SqueezeThe RB1! Bollinger Bands bandwidth has narrowed to the narrowest width in 11 months as can be seen via the BandWidth indicator. Such a collapse in volatility usually precedes a volatility breakout in either direction. A Bollinger Band squeeze, which is a type of volatility breakout setup, is triggered when the bandwidth puts in a 6-month low which is a condition that has been achieved. This criterium is defined in the book “Bollinger on Bollinger Bands” by John Bollinger in the chapter "The Squeeze." The book states that a squeeze may oftentimes head fake and that a parabolic SAR (PSAR) may be used as a reversal trigger for an open trade or a trigger point for opening a new position in the direction price was heading when it hit the PSAR. Volume indicators and other technicals should be used to try and determine the direction of the squeeze and that is what I’ve done. Accumulation/Distribution% which is detailed in the book and linked below as an indicator I’ve published is trending down which is not necessarily the suggested use of the indicator but it was the best hint I could find about the direction of the breakout. %B is also trending down which again isn’t the intended use of the indicator but there’s not much else to go by. There’s a trendline which suggests going short and the 20-day sma is sloping downward which also suggests going short although it is pretty close to rolling up. Last time I noticed a squeeze setup was in soybeans and it broke out in the direction of the prior couple months which was down and is currently down with RBOB. The soybean idea is linked below.
I’ve come up with down as the anticipated direction of the squeeze breakout with a stop (and reverse if practical) at the PSAR (blue dots trailing stop) and a target of 1.9315 at the lower channel line which should fall above the previous low of 1.8799.
I will not actually be trading this because the notional value of 1 contract is $99,531 which is too high for me right now and it’s not a high conviction trade idea, more of a “I think this is what’s gonna happen, but it can go either way” type deal. It can head fake in one direction and break out in the other. If anyone has any ideas on which direction the volatility breakout is likely to be in based on technicals or fundamentals, please share.
Accumulation/Distribution% indicator:
Soybean Bollinger Band Squeeze idea:
Could BTC's Trendline End Not with a Bang But a Whimper?Primary Chart: Fibonacci Channel and Symmetrical Triangle
Title alludes to a well-known excerpt from T.S. Elliot's poem called "The Hollow Men":
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
Setting Aside Bias Temporarily to Allow Greater Flexibility in Analysis
Many of my recent posts on cryptocurrencies have been presented with a bearish bias. A bearish view has been warranted, after all, because the technicals have left almost no room for a bullish short-term or intermediate-term view. Some of my recent posts have been neutral, however, to evaluate and explore more fully all possibilities within the context of support and resistance levels, price action and other technical factors.
Unfortunately, BTC's price chart has not yet turned bullish given the price structure. And positive / bullish divergences mentioned by some long-term crypto investors cannot count until they are confirmed by a reversal in trend structure.
This post attempts to set aside bias temporarily to present a variety of technical evidence as objectively as possible. The goal is to remain relatively neutral to allow a more complete examination of the price charts and technicals without the influence of a particular predetermined goal or conclusion. This might allow for greater flexibility to follow the unexpected turns that prices often take.
BTC's Relative Strength in Recent Weeks
In a recent bearish post, after listing several arguments for the bears, I discussed one argument for the bulls—BTC's relative strength. On October 2, 2022, my post stated: "One argument for the bulls is that BTC's sideways chop action has resulted in its relative strength becoming quite impressive. Equity indices have been plummeting sharply since mid-August 2022 with little reprieve. But BTC during this time has largely chopped sideways after losing a few key levels in late August and early September 2022."
This relative strength can be examined more closely by looking at a spread chart that divides one instrument's price by the price of an index or some other price reference for comparison. The chart below shows a spread (or ratio) chart of BTC / SPX, showing BTC's relative strength compared to a leading equity index, the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ).
Supplementary Chart A: Spread Chart Showing BTC's Relative Strength vs. SPX
www.tradingview.com
Note how this spread chart has broken above a nearly 11-month downward trendline. Some may draw the conclusion too quickly that this suggests a trend reversal, such as from a downtrend to an uptrend. But a break above a down trendline by itself merely suggests a shift from that particular downtrend to either a less steep downtrend or a more neutral trend, which could then lead to a period of sideways chop for some time or it could lead to a trend reversal as well. But a reversal to an uptrend requires a change in trend structure, which is a process that takes time to form and has not occurred yet.
Another aspect of BTC's relative strength exists. It has not broken its June 2022 lows as many equities and equity indices have done. Until that changes—it could break those lows at any time—this technical evidence is an alternative way of viewing BTC's relative strength.
BTC's relative strength has improved even though BTC has largely churned and chopped sideways for the past weeks and months. This is because many asset classes have been steadily declining, some even plummeting, since mid-August 2022 peaks. Any asset or instrument will have relative strength when it moves sideways while equity indices continue to decline. The sideways consolidation will be discussed in greater detail in the next section.
BTC's Recent Consolidation and Volatility Compression
BTC's price has chopped steadily around a key Fibonacci level of $19,246 for the past several weeks since mid-September 2022, and even for a number of days in late August 2022 as well. This consolidation has been noteworthy given that equity indices have plummeted during this time. When an asset moves sideways while equity indices steadily decline results in relative strength (outperformance) of that asset as discussed in the previous section.
Supplementary Chart B: Recent Consolidation Range Containing Price
And during this lengthy consolidation, the compression in volatility has been quite significant. The next chart compares the levels of volatility by using a famous volatility indicator called the Bollinger Bands (set at 2 standard deviations from the mean) on a daily chart. Parallel channels have been drawn over various sections of the Bollinger Bands to give a visual comparison of the volatility levels and volatility compression levels over the past several months. Note how wide the Bollinger Bands expanded as a result of the high volatility associated with steep selloffs. And the periods of volatility compression (squeezes) often preceded those periods of high volatility and large directional moves downward.
Supplementary Chart C: Bollinger Bands (2 Standard Devations) with Channels for Visual Aid in Comparing Volatility Levels
Most importantly, note how the tightly compressed the current volatility in price has become, i.e., note how narrow, the Bollinger Bands are now. They are more narrow perhaps than at any other time during this bear market. If history is any guide, such a period of compressed volatility (a squeeze) implies that a sizeable increase in volatility associated with a large directional move will soon follow. Because the trend has been down, the odds would seem to favor a downward flush. But BTC's relative strength causes one to wonder whether a massive bear rally may be imminent.
So traders should be prepared for any scenario where price could move dramatically. This is why my stance became more neutral for purposes of a thorough evaluation of price action. Because BTC is at a make-or break juncture in the short-to-intermediate term, it helps to stay open to all possibilities rather than staying rigidly fixated on the obvious bearish view. Being flexible and nimble can help traders remain more keenly aware and prepared for shifts that can occur at any time.
VWAPs and Linear Regression Channel
Even if the charts may be shifting in subtle ways, some of the technical evidence still firmly supports the existence of a downtrend. Shorter-term VWAPs \ show that the current price remains under the volume-weighted average price for a variety of different lookback periods. This means that the average buyer is losing money and the average seller remains in control for each of these VWAP periods.
Supplementary Chart D: Various VWAPs from All-Time High, March 2022 High, June 2022 / YTD Low, and August 2022 High
Further, longer-term VWAPs remain in favor of the bears as shown in a separate post from September 24, 2022 (linked as Supplementary Chart E below). The linear regression channel from the all-time high to the present, which was drawn a few days ago (also linked as Supplementary Chart E), suggests that the downtrend remains very much in effect, and that evidence should not be dismissed.
Supplementary Chart E: Linear Regression Channel and Long-Term VWAPs
Price at Apex of Various Consolidation Triangles
The consolidation in price may be viewed from another helpful perspective—the various triangles that have formed. Triangles generally develop as a narrowing trading range (consolidation) as upper and lower trendlines converge under compressing volatility conditions. The Primary Chart shows a symmetrical triangle, which by definition does not imply a direction to the breakout. Price has reached the very apex of this triangle.
Price has also reached the apex of two other right-angled triangles shown below. Right-angled triangles (also called descending or ascending triangles) do imply a directional bias via the sloping trendline that intersects with the horizontal trendline. In this case, the two alternative right-angled triangles (shown in Supplementary Chart F below) imply a downward directional breakout. But right-angled triangles, like other technical patterns and indicators, do not work perfectly to guarantee that the breakout will occur in the implied direction. Some right-angled triangle breakouts occur in a direction opposite from what is expected, which can make the breakout even more sharp because it catches market participants off guard.
Supplementary Chart F: Multi-Month Right-Angled Triangle
Supplementary Chart G: Second Right-Angled Triangle
BTC's Price at Critical Juncture
In conclusion, BTC's price now trades at a critical juncture. A breakout in price from the very apex of several different triangles could occur within a day or two. The compression in volatility has been quite substantial, implying a larger than normal directional breakout move. Combine this compression in volatility with the fact that BTC has not made a new low, has shown relative strength vs. blue-chip indices, and it would seem that traders should be prepared to react to whatever might happen.
Price has also reached the 11-month downtrend line shown on the Primary Chart as the zero line of the Fibonacci Channel. Price could continue chopping sideways right through that down trendline without much ado. That would perhaps be one of the most frustrating outcomes for bulls and bears alike, which is why the title to this article was chosen.
And at this point, it would appear that just about anything can happen—an eye-popping bear rally, a few major whipsaws up and down over the next several weeks, a major continuation move in the downtrend. Or price could just drift sideways through the 11-month downtrend line, ending it not with a bang, but a whimper. While predicting may feel satisfying, the better approach in this case may be to wait and allow price to tell us which way it wants to go.
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Author's Comments:
(1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view.
(2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades.
(3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success.
(4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Nasdaq reclaiming the June lows — squeeze on watchWe spoke a lot about this chart in last week's SMW video and our preferred scenario for today would have been a market puke and a VIX spike, but as we often say, the market doesn't care what we want.
We talked about the June lows as a key line in the sand going forward and the market is trying to make us believe that it wants to be above it. The action today was constructive, but now we need follow through and we need to punch through this cluster of highs/lows around 275 to really kick off the squeeze.
This remains a very tricky environment that can change on a dime, but as it stands right now, shorts need to be careful of an impending squeeze so long as we are over the June lows.
SPY LONG MEGA SQUEEZE POTENTIALMega fear in the markets with every Tom, Dick and Harry calling for recession.
Sentiment is leaning incredibly bearish and with SPY coming down to the 2nd of September 2020 high at 358.75, we could see it act as support to squeeze shorts after slipping below and trapping everyone.
Reclaim and push above would be incredibly bullish and set it up for next week. ALSO, big big volume on this break. Would love to see this make a reclaim in afterhours for turbo trapping. Looking for something like purple to play out.
95 days at this level. Will support hold or break?We are right on the cusp of breaking down now. Bulls would need a bounce here + enough momentum to keep going and break up. Not impossible of course - so make sure you exit short here if we start moving up.
However a break down here could lead all the way down to 10k area! If it does we would have quite a bit of volatility introduced for some quick big bounces.
Let's see how it plays out. I'm going short here.