$USDC | Altseason Incoming.....FinallyCRYPTOCAP:USDC Dominance looks to be Double Topped on the RSI side and per historic movements, this looks promising for the market.
I say, BRING ON THE ALTCOINS.
Stablecoin
Euro Stablecoin BOOMS: Bye, USD?The Euro Stablecoin Ascends: EURC Hits Record High as Traders Eye Dollar Alternatives Amid Global Uncertainty
For years, the digital asset landscape has been dominated by the US dollar, not just in trading volume but fundamentally through the ubiquity of USD-pegged stablecoins. Tokens like Tether (USDT) and Circle's own USD Coin (USDC) have become the bedrock of the crypto economy, acting as crucial bridges between volatile cryptocurrencies and traditional fiat, facilitating trading, lending, and yield generation within decentralized finance (DeFi). However, the winds of change may be subtly shifting. Amidst a backdrop of persistent global trade tensions, geopolitical maneuvering, and questions surrounding the long-term trajectory of the US dollar, alternative fiat-backed stablecoins are gaining traction. Leading this nascent charge is the Euro Coin (EURC), Circle's Euro-backed offering, which recently surged to a record market capitalization exceeding $246 million.
This milestone, while still dwarfed by its multi-billion dollar USD counterparts, is significant. It signals a growing appetite among traders, investors, and institutions for stable digital assets pegged to currencies other than the greenback. The rise of EURC isn't happening in a vacuum; it reflects a confluence of factors challenging the dollar's undisputed reign in the digital sphere and highlighting the strategic appeal of diversification.
Understanding the Stablecoin Status Quo and the Dollar's Dominance
Stablecoins are indispensable cogs in the crypto machine. They offer price stability relative to a specific asset (usually a major fiat currency), allowing market participants to park funds, calculate profits, pay for services, and interact with DeFi protocols without the wild price swings characteristic of Bitcoin or Ethereum. USDT and USDC have achieved massive network effects, integrated across countless exchanges, wallets, and DeFi applications, making them the default choice for liquidity and settlement.
Their success, however, inherently ties a vast swathe of the digital economy to the US dollar's fate and US monetary policy. For international users, particularly those operating primarily within the Eurozone or holding significant Euro-denominated assets or liabilities, relying solely on USD stablecoins introduces foreign exchange (FX) risk and potential conversion inefficiencies.
Enter EURC: A Regulated Euro On-Chain
Launched by Circle, the same regulated fintech firm behind the highly successful USDC, Euro Coin (EURC) aims to replicate the trust and utility of its dollar sibling, but pegged 1:1 to the Euro. Each EURC token is intended to be fully backed by Euros held in dedicated, segregated bank accounts under Circle's custody. This emphasis on transparency and regulatory compliance, mirroring the approach taken with USDC, is crucial for building trust, especially among institutional players wary of less transparent stablecoin issuers.
The recent surge in EURC's supply to over €246 million (equivalent to ~$246 million at the time of the record, assuming near parity for simplicity, though the exact USD value fluctuates) indicates accelerating adoption. This growth isn't just passive accumulation; it suggests active minting driven by real demand.
Why the Shift? Trade Uncertainty and the Allure of Diversification
The primary catalyst cited for this growing interest in non-USD stablecoins is the pervasive sense of uncertainty clouding the global trade environment and the US dollar's outlook. Several factors contribute to this:
1. Geopolitical Tensions & Deglobalization Trends: Ongoing conflicts, shifting alliances, and a move towards regional trading blocs can create volatility and potentially weaken dominant currencies like the dollar as nations explore alternative payment and reserve systems.
2. US Economic Concerns: Debates around US national debt levels, inflation trajectory, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions can lead some international investors and traders to hedge against potential dollar depreciation.
3. Desire for FX Hedging: Businesses and traders operating significantly within the Eurozone may prefer a Euro-native stablecoin to minimize the costs and risks associated with constantly converting between EUR and USD stablecoins. Holding EURC directly aligns their digital cash position with their operational currency.
4. European Regulatory Clarity (MiCA): The implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation in the European Union provides a clearer framework for stablecoin issuers and users within the bloc, potentially boosting confidence in well-regulated Euro stablecoins like EURC.
5. DeFi Diversification: As the DeFi ecosystem matures, users are seeking more diverse collateral types and trading pairs. EURC allows for the creation of Euro-based liquidity pools and lending markets, catering to a specific user base and reducing systemic reliance on USD assets.
Traders aren't necessarily predicting an imminent dollar collapse, but rather strategically positioning themselves to mitigate risk. Holding a portion of their stable digital assets in EURC provides a hedge – if the dollar weakens against the Euro, the value of their EURC holdings, when measured in dollars, would increase, offsetting potential losses on USD-denominated assets.
Use Cases and Potential Beyond Hedging
While hedging FX risk is a significant driver, the utility of EURC extends further:
• Seamless Euro Transactions: Facilitates frictionless payments and settlements within the Eurozone using blockchain technology.
• European DeFi Growth: Enables the development of DeFi applications tailored to the European market, offering Euro-based borrowing, lending, and yield opportunities.
• Remittances: Potentially offers a more efficient channel for cross-border Euro transfers compared to traditional banking rails.
• Trading Pairs: Allows exchanges to offer direct EURC trading pairs against various cryptocurrencies, simplifying the process for Euro-based traders.
Challenges and the Road Ahead
Despite its record supply, EURC faces hurdles. Its market capitalization and liquidity remain a fraction of USDT's and USDC's. This lower liquidity can mean higher slippage on large trades and limits its immediate utility as deep collateral in major DeFi protocols, which thrive on multi-billion dollar liquidity pools. Building the network effect – getting listed on more exchanges, integrated into more wallets, and accepted by more DeFi platforms – takes time and concerted effort.
Furthermore, EURC's success is intrinsically linked to the stability and economic health of the Eurozone itself. It diversifies away from the dollar, but not away from fiat risk entirely. The regulatory landscape, while clarifying under MiCA, will continue to evolve and shape the operational environment.
Conclusion: A Sign of a Maturing Market
The surge in Circle's EURC supply to over $246 million is more than just a numerical milestone; it's a tangible indicator of a maturing stablecoin market seeking diversification beyond the US dollar. Driven by global trade uncertainties, geopolitical shifts, and a desire among European users and savvy traders to hedge FX risk, Euro-based stablecoins are carving out a growing niche. While the dollar-pegged giants still dominate, the ascent of well-regulated alternatives like EURC signifies a crucial step towards a potentially multi-polar stablecoin future. It underscores the demand for trusted, compliant digital representations of major world currencies, offering users greater choice and resilience in an increasingly complex global financial landscape. The journey for EURC and its Euro counterparts is still in its early stages, but the trend towards diversification is clear, promising a more varied and potentially more stable digital asset ecosystem ahead.
USDC Leads Stablecoin Market Cap Growth in 2024, Surpassing USDT
The year 2024 witnessed a significant shift in the stablecoin landscape, with Circle's USD Coin (USDC) demonstrating a remarkable resurgence and outperforming its main competitor, Tether's USDT, in terms of market capitalization growth. This surge marks a significant milestone for USDC, which had faced a considerable setback in 2023 following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). This article delves into the factors contributing to USDC's impressive recovery and its implications for the broader stablecoin market.
USDC's Rocky Road to Recovery
USDC's journey in recent years has been a rollercoaster ride. In 2023, the stablecoin experienced a substantial downturn, with its market cap plummeting by 45%. This decline was largely attributed to the collapse of SVB, where Circle had a portion of its reserves held. The bank's failure triggered a crisis of confidence in USDC, leading to significant withdrawals and a temporary de-pegging from the US dollar. This event cast a shadow over USDC's future and raised concerns about the stability of stablecoins in general.
However, USDC's performance in 2024 tells a different story. The stablecoin not only recovered from the SVB-induced slump but also surpassed USDT in market cap growth. This remarkable turnaround underscores USDC's resilience and the growing trust in its underlying mechanisms.
Factors Driving USDC's Growth
Several factors have contributed to USDC's impressive growth in 2024:
1. Increased Regulatory Clarity: The evolving regulatory landscape surrounding stablecoins has been crucial in USDC's resurgence. As governments worldwide are increasingly focusing on establishing clear frameworks for stablecoin operations, USDC's commitment to transparency and compliance has resonated with investors and users. This regulatory clarity has fostered a more favorable environment for USDC, attracting both institutional and retail adoption.
2. Focus on Trust and Transparency: Circle has prioritized building trust and transparency in its operations. The company regularly publishes attestations of its reserves, providing assurance to users that USDC is fully backed by traditional assets. This commitment to transparency has been instrumental in restoring confidence in USDC following the SVB crisis.
3. Expansion of Blockchain Infrastructure: The continuous development and expansion of blockchain infrastructure have also contributed to USDC's growth. As more blockchain networks integrate USDC, its utility and accessibility increase, driving adoption and market capitalization.
4. Growing Institutional Adoption: USDC has witnessed increasing adoption among institutional investors. These investors are drawn to USDC's stability, transparency, and regulatory compliance, making it a preferred choice for various use cases, including trading, lending, and payments.
5. Market Demand for Diversification: The stablecoin market has been increasingly seeking diversification beyond USDT. Concerns about the composition of Tether's reserves and its lack of transparency have led investors to explore alternative stablecoins. USDC, with its focus on transparency and regulatory compliance, has emerged as a leading beneficiary of this trend.
USDC vs. USDT: A Closer Look
USDC and USDT are the two dominant stablecoins in the market, but they differ significantly in their approach and underlying mechanisms.
• Transparency and Audits: USDC has been lauded for its transparency, with regular audits and attestations of its reserves. In contrast, Tether has faced criticism for its lack of transparency and the composition of its reserves.
• Regulatory Compliance: Circle has actively engaged with regulators and prioritized compliance, while Tether has faced regulatory scrutiny in various jurisdictions.
• Market Capitalization: While USDT still holds the largest market share, USDC has been steadily closing the gap, driven by its strong growth in 2024.
Implications for the Stablecoin Market
USDC's surge has significant implications for the broader stablecoin market:
• Increased Competition: USDC's growth has intensified competition in the stablecoin market, challenging USDT's dominance. This competition is healthy for the market, driving innovation and improving standards.
• Focus on Transparency and Compliance: USDC's success has reinforced the importance of transparency and regulatory compliance in the stablecoin industry. This trend is likely to continue, with stablecoin issuers prioritizing these aspects to gain trust and adoption.
• Growing Institutional Interest: The increasing institutional adoption of USDC signals a growing acceptance of stablecoins as a legitimate asset class. This trend is likely to attract more institutional investors to the stablecoin market, further driving its growth.
Conclusion
Circle's USDC has demonstrated a remarkable recovery and growth in 2024, outperforming Tether's USDT in market cap surge. This resurgence can be attributed to several factors, including increased regulatory clarity, a focus on trust and transparency, expansion of blockchain infrastructure, growing institutional adoption, and market demand for diversification. USDC's success has significant implications for the stablecoin market, intensifying competition, emphasizing transparency and compliance, and attracting growing institutional interest. As the stablecoin market continues to evolve, USDC is poised to play a leading role, shaping its future and driving its adoption in the broader financial ecosystem.
XRP possible to revisit $1.78XRP appears to be forming a WXY correction pattern, potentially a zigzag structure, with each segment comprising three subwaves within Wave 4. The projected reversal zone for Wave 4 aligns with the 100% extension level on the Fibonacci trend, targeting approximately $1.78 .
Stablecoins are reversing - Crash targetsAs for Dogecoin there are 2 scenarios:
1) We have a deal with Triangle on a minor degree. In this scenario price unable to go much further than 0.302
2) We have a deal with primary Diagonal, in this scenario price may reach 0.177 before first reaction. But after this reaction fall may continue and update the 2022 low slightly.
#BTC #DOGE #USDT
MKR broke out of channel MKR is the token used to vote on MakerDAO - decentralized autonomous organization controlling DAI. DAI is a stablecoin supposedly controlled by a decetralized organization instead of more cetralized competitors. Currently its market cap is around $2 Bln and DAI mcap is $5.4 bln. In the altcoin market it is quite reasonable to place a bet on stablecoins and one of the limited ways to do it is MKR.
It will most likely reach the green zone which is a nice 20% trade. After that it will reach resistance both Fibonacci and that giant triangle- wise.
CRACKS ARE FORMING IN USDT DOMINANCE! THE END IS NEAR!USDT has completely dominated the stablecoin market for a long time now, but cracks are beginning to form in its foundation that could cause the whole structure to come crashing down. People are losing trust in USDT, even though the vast majority of trading platforms use it as the sole medium of exchange on their platforms. Competitors are turning up the heat in this market, and companies like Circle (USDC), which are fully audited, as well as newcomers like Ripple's RLUSD, could pose a serious challenge to USDT if it doesn't prove its reserves through regular audits and restore investor confidence.
I personally believe that USDT is a Ponzi scheme, similar to the Federal Reserve, which continuously counterfeits dollars by minting excess tokens, with nothing but faith backing them. I also believe that the time of USDT's dominance is coming to a swift end.
Once RLUSD is released and available for purchase to Wall Street and Main Street, I believe that the majority of stablecoin holders will switch from USDT to RLUSD, as Ripple is one of the most transparent and reputable companies within the crypto space. I am one of these people.
Good luck, and don't put all your eggs in one basket!
XRP boring to trade but it will explode soon?I think we already completed the 1-2 pullback and now I'm eyeing on a wave 3 pump to the upside.
XRPUSDT: READY TO PUMP AGAINHello All:
Welcome to the quick update of XRPUSDT. After consolidating for a few days, XRP pumped around 20-25% until 0.64
As of now, it is making a bull flag kind of pattern, it has broken it and retested and can pump again anytime soon at around 20%.
We can take a long entry into this fundamentally good and stable coin.
Possible entry-exit points:
Entry: 0.5821 to 0.6100
Target: 0.651, 0.672, 0.698, until 0.7800 in the long run.
STOPLOSS: 0.5700
Until then, stay tuned and trade with caution, ensuring strict STOPLOSSES!!
This is not financial advice, please do your research before investing, as we are not responsible for any of your losses or profits.
Please like, share, and comment on this idea if you liked it.
ScramblerG is always there to help and trade with caution but DYOR.
This will make our jobs easier if #Stablecoin Dominancewas to reach the inverse head & shoulder target :)
Almost the same % when the #crypto market topped out last cycle.
Will it?
IDK!
Should u wait to those low single digit numbers before u emabrk on profit taking?
probably not.
We shall keep an eye on this of course.
Best of Luck
TRX - The Outlier - Time For A Mega Short?Ah, Tronix. Yes, it's actually called "Tronix", not "Tron." The coin with the disappearing wallet. No joke, I made a wallet back in early 2019 for TRX and stored the private key. I like to do things the old fashioned way, so I wrote it down and double-checked it by logging in. The second time Iogged in, I got the notification, "this wallet doesn't exist." Since then, I've been pretty wary of this project. I could go into all sorts of conspiracy theories about Justin Sun, CZ, Binance, stablecoins......but I'll leave that to your imagination.
This is a purely technical setup. TRX is one of the few coins that has maintained higher support levels during this bloodbath. What's up with that? As far as I understand, TRX is burned to help keep the Tron stablecoin USDD pegged to the dollar. USDT recently moved away from the Tron network. Anomalies like this don't usually last long in the crypto market. I'm speculating that this breaks down massively. There's already buzz that TRX will be the next LUNA, but before I say it's going to zero, let's just look at horizontal supports. If TRX cannot hold the 200 MA on the 3 day (teal), and if it cannot hold that orange uptrend, I think it can fall 50% pretty quickly, much like other alts during this period.
On the bullish side, TRX will need to break and hold above the 200 day MA (teal in the below chart)
The 200 week MA lingers just below, at the 4 cents level. Now, the question is - does TRX test the 50 week MA near 8 cents one more time before dumping? Let's find out.
This is not meant as financial advice. This post is highly speculative, and is meant for entertainment :)
-Victor Cobra
SOLUSD: Snapping Back to $210 | 70.70% Probability!BINANCE:SOLUSD has been drawing a lot of attention in the crypto space in the past few days due to its integration with NASDAQ:PYPL
Let's have a technical analysis breakdown:
BINANCE:SOLUSD According to my Free Probability Indicator , There's a 70.00% chance it could climb back over $210 and beyond, which is pretty much encouraging!
If you're thinking about trading LINK, here's what you should consider:
Entry:
Wait for clear signs that the price is going up again.
Once you're confident the trend is changing, consider buying LINK.
I'm currently looking at the 8H Equilibrium to get positioned.
Exit:
To protect yourself from drawdowns, consider setting a "trailing stop-loss." This will automatically trigger a sell order if the price starts dropping again after you buy, securing your running profits.
Risk Management:
Ensure you're not risking more money than you can afford to lose.
Only invest what you're comfortable with and consider how much you're willing to lose if things don't go as planned.
This isn't financial advice, just some insights to help you make informed decisions. Always do your own research before investing in anything.
ETHENA looks ready to head up. Bullish.
Ethena has been in a downtrend for some time recently, but technicals are looking up right now. If we can maintain this momentum, and have this IHS play out, we could rip higher to the first profit target shown, then maybe way higher. We will see. Volatility is also very constricted and tight on this cryptocurrency right now.
And as everyone here knows... Low Volatility proceeds by Volatility.
Not Financial Advice. Do all of your own research. For me these are long term holds. Not "Trades". Risk Management still applies. Happy Hunting ; )
TETHER (USDT) COLLAPSE IS IMMINENT! With the United States about to pass strict regulation regarding stablecoins, which includes a measure to insure "Robust transparency, audit and reporting requirements," Tether is absolutely doomed, as they have consistently refused to confirm a 1:1 peg to the USD through an independent, third-party audit, which in my book, is because they're not doing it.
Something is fishy with Tether, and I would not be surprised if it has not maintained the 1:1 peg as it has claimed, but will soon be exposed as a fraud, and a ponzi scheme designed to benefit its owners at the expense of the general public.
On April 9th, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) announced that:
"This legislation develops two paths for stablecoin issuers.
1- The first path would be for depository institutions that would allow for both federal and state bank charter depository institutions to become stablecoin issuers after an approval process.
2- The other path would be for nondepository institutions that would give the federal government supervisory authority over the state nonbank institutions while preserving states as the primary functional regulator."
This spells the end for Tether, and certain doom for any company whose business model relies upon it, such as: Exchanges, OTC desks, Trading Platforms and Wallets, Remittance Services and DEFI Platforms.
You were warned! Don't get caught holding the bag!
Bitcoin does a drop then pop LONGBTCUSD three days ago did a drop to take out stop losses and get shorts to take profit. Since
then it reversed climbing over a price of 45.4 K. The MACD lines are under the histogram which
just flipped negative to positive indicating the beginning or recycling of bullish momentum.
The RSI indicators are not at all in overbought territory no matter then run up over the
following three days. Relative Volumes are about 3X the running average. CLSK Clearspark
reported today and surged. Anyone who played my options idea for it, saw a 300% return
overnight. HUT likewise. Although I did not post an idea, BTBT got even more altitude and
got over its past year high while still only 20% of its all-time high, Is this with the crypto
resurgence at its onset predicted by both pundits and fortunetellers? Maybe or maybe not.
But what it might be is an opening to get into your favorite crypto play while the momentum
continues. I would seem that the most aggressive is near-term options on equities approaching
earnings. MSTR is a megacap slow moving and it got 25% in the past five days on the share price.
The small caps are moving much more than that. If you have cash in reverse this might be a
to deploy it judiciously here in some of the crypto action, in my opinion.
Cerberus sell signal Cerberus observes the ratio between stable coins and the markets to forecast extremes.
We are currently seeing a sell signal. The past sell was a fake out so its worth having a look a how often this can happen and if it has ever happen to see two fake outs in a row.
From 2017, where we can start tracking all the stable coins used in the indicator, we see 15 sell signals. So far only two including the past month one are the only ones that got it wrong. That’s about a 77% right.
What’s more interesting is to notice that there’s never been two signals wrong in a while.
Not financial advice only chart observations.
WHY IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE PUSHING FOR STABLECOIN REGULATION?WHY IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE PUSHING FOR STABLECOIN REGULATION?
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasizes the need for a legislative framework for stablecoins to ensure financial stability.
The Fed’s push for regulation highlights the growing integration of stablecoins with the traditional financial system and their potential risks.
Recent financial turmoil involving stablecoins, like the USD Coin incident, showcases their vulnerability and interconnectedness with traditional banks.
Looks like the Federal Reserve is steering America toward a future where stablecoins are not just acknowledged but also regulated. In his recent meetings with House Democrats, Jerome Powell made it plain that a legal framework for stablecoins is an absolute must if the United States is to effectively traverse these unexplored seas. This position shows a major change in attitude toward digital currencies, which is indicative of the increasing awareness of the possible effects they may have on the conventional financial system.
The Case for Regulatory Frameworks
Financial experts have come to a common understanding, as Powell has pointed out, that without a regulated framework, digital currencies might face problems as they gain popularity. One way to protect one’s wealth from the ever-changing cryptocurrency market is to invest in stablecoins, which are tethered to conventional currencies such as the US dollar. In addition to allowing merchants to make rapid transactions, they also provide a way to store or transfer funds independently of banks and are becoming more integrated into the traditional financial system. But this connection isn’t risk-free.
Recent events at Silicon Valley Bank and Circle Internet Financial Ltd. show how stablecoins are susceptible to swings in the conventional banking industry. Circle Internet Financial Ltd. had a large amount of USD Coin reserves stuck in the failing bank. Even while stablecoins are intended to be stable, they may still be affected by actual financial crises, which can impact both their value and the market as a whole. As an example of how closely linked digital currencies are to the conventional banking system, consider the USD Coin event, in which its value fell below $1 during a banking crisis before recovering due to government intervention.
The Ripple Effect on Monetary Policy
Stablecoin regulation is important to the Federal Reserve for a number of reasons, including but not limited to avoiding market volatility and mitigating their influence on monetary policy. Conventional methods of monetary regulation face a serious threat from the advent of narrow banks, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). One example of how financial regulation is changing is the way the Federal Reserve has changed its monetary policy practices since 2007. These include paying interest on reserves and using reverse repos and central bank reserves to influence interest rates.
Looking at digital currency makes this transition even more apparent. Interest rate setting and the total amount of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet are only two areas where CBDCs and stablecoins have the ability to cause significant systemic disruption. In their published study, the Federal Reserve examines these effects and notes that monetary policy adjustments may be required to forestall a decline in lending and preserve economic stability in the case of digital currency integration.
Based on the similarities between stablecoins and CBDCs, the study concludes that digital currencies with higher interest rates would attract more investors and deter depositors from going to conventional banks, which might have an effect on lending volumes. As a result, the equilibrium interest rate would fall and the central bank would have less room to manoeuvre in times of crisis if this scenario plays out.
Another nuance comes from the idea of “narrow banks,” which compete with traditional commercial banks for customers’ deposits but do not provide loans themselves. Commercial banks may see a decline in lending capacity and repercussions to the loan market as a whole if depositors flee to these institutions due to their lower interest rates and easier structure.
Everyone is panicking!!! #USDC depegs! I accumulate :)#BTCUSD the down channel is self explanatory. Breakout and retest.
I'm thinking about 2025 and acting like a smart player.
During despair it's tooo easy to click the sell button along with the crowd.
Like it is too easy believe the paradigm and buy near the tops.
The USDC peg will be restored. Circles losses are actually quite small, and their treasury holdings generate a large yield.
Jim Cramer has been telling to sell for 9 months so u know it's the best time to accumulate :)
Deciphering the Charts: A Closer Look at BTCUSDT's FutureD ear TradingView Community,
B efore I delve into the analysis, it's important to note that I do not consider the current price level as the optimal entry point for a short position. While this prediction suggests a bearish outlook, the ideal entry points lie closer to the horizontal red dotted line. The suggested entry points are specific to my risk appetite, and your approach may differ. Even if you find merit in this prediction, your choice of entries, target prices, stop loss, trail profit parameters, and other safety measures should align with your individual risk tolerance. It's essential to understand that past performance does not guarantee future results.
I share a medium-term perspective with the community. This prediction is subject to short-term fluctuations, and its outcome depends on various technical factors aligning. Our AI system, drawing insights from deep neural network analysis, has identified the potential emergence of a bearish chart pattern known as a "rising" pattern, which often marks the end of bullish trends.
S o, what technical indicators support the idea of a bearish rising pattern?
Notably, the volume has consistently decreased between October 24th and November 2nd, suggesting a period of consolidation or more. Historical data indicates that volume patterns often coincide with the conclusion of trends. In this case, the volume indicator implies that the recent bullish trend may be nearing end. It underscores the significance of the volume indicator in relation to channel pattern analysis.
A dditionally, on November 1st and 2nd, there were significant transactions, often referred to as "whale transactions," across major exchanges' spot BTC-USDT markets, primarily involving Bitcoin sales. The red candles in the transparent white boxes on the volume section of the chart represent these selling activities. While I avoid making hasty judgments, some theories in the crypto trading community suggest that whales tend to impact smaller traders. I present this information without taking a stance on the principle, but for those who find it relevant, it's worth considering.
T o illustrate this analysis, I've chosen to use 4-hour candles known for providing a balanced representation that minimizes market noise, making them suitable for weekly or even daily positions. Our AI system has outlined two potential scenarios for future price movements. The price could find support from the current trendline (represented by the bottom white line), leading to continued consolidation, as depicted by the top dotted white arrow. Alternatively, should the mentioned support break, it could pave the way for a more substantial decline, with the bottom dotted white arrow signifying the potential target price. Both scenarios complement our bearish perspective, with the top arrow indicating consolidation before a downturn and the bottom arrow visualizing a more direct fall.
W hile various indicators, such as Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence, align with the potential scenarios depicted on the charts, it's essential to recognize that this pattern is unconfirmed. There's a chance that we may witness entirely different developments in the coming months. Therefore, I advise a cautious approach safeguarding your existing funds rather than aggressive day trading. Your financial security should always be your top priority.
tl;dr
Position: Short
Current Trend: Bullish
Upcoming Trend: Potentially Bearish
Indicators: Volume Consolidation, Whale Transactions, Rising Supports and Resistances, RSI Divergence
Important: This might not be the best entry. Don't forget your stop loss and trail profit if you decide to put any positions.
Warmest regards,
ELY
STABLECOIN – QUIZZ FOR SMART TRADERS
Few months ago, I posted on the USDT.D ( Follow the money if You wanna hit your target ).
According to the CryptoAsset market, USDT.D is 7.86%, so far. But if we add CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D to this chart, what is not insignificant because they are predominantly used in DEXs, we reaching 10.22% . Knowing that CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is at 49.86% ; CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D at 19.03%.
The TOTAL represent quite 80% of the Market… Do you need me to draw a picture of what I think about the rest ?
In any case, when you are in an MarkUp channel, the probability of breaking it out to the downside could ONLY confirm the end of a trend, except for what you call a deviation (which in my language means a mSOW).
You’ve understood it well! A decrease in stablecoin dominance simply means their use in investment, or rather their re-injection into Cryptoassets market !
Even if this Chart showing a Ribbon reversal, even if it setup a potential exit, with a potential desire to kick the 200, IT WILL TAKE TIME to exit from this Failed Structure because to confirm this exit (once Major SOW happen), we need to see at least a pull back on the low Fork trendline (ICE), no more than its MidRange.
The only indication in this chart, is the volume decreasing for a potential spike/squeeze before any logical construction (because Weiss indicator bullshiting at this point!).
In the assumption of lapping the 200, it will be highly likely to confirm if there will be a rejection or not !
Aesthetically this MarkUp is so perfect. I won’t say if we gonna make another lap to continue the progression!
Of course, I would have preferred to see an upthrust before finding ourselves in front of this exit trap. Not that the last movement is too weak or too shy, which indicates the difficulty in a chaotic market progression. What is important in an increase or a decrease is not the trend itself, but rather the strength of the movement.
From Weekly to Daily
While in traditional markets, the construction of forks with different phases (from A to F) is obvious, in crypto, MM cause prices to fluctuate in all directions, leaving a lot of liquidity in both sides. This makes TA more complicated.
As easy as it was to understand the Weekly TF, it gets more complicated on the Daily one.
As I have often repeated, the cryptocurrency market is very young, with low liquidity, and therefore very volatile. There is a lack of rules, almost no discipline, which sometimes shows the intensity of the movements. Furthermore, when Institutional need to cover margin call on classics they don’t hesitate to purge their “crypto” positions, as we saw it in the past.
According to AR as of 15.08.22 (ICE level), we currently working on the same level. If we consider the Spike as of May 22 with a kind of TPO leaving (9%), we can appreciate a double bottom. There is 4 bearish divergences, plus 3 “Yellow candles”, if I consider the Spike as of 10.03.23 being a LPSY, we just slid into a new Fork, more practicable. I could not exclude a 3 taps (9% again). It become obvious.
Furthermore, We broke 8% , we might “BackUp” at least on this zone to confirm the continuation of the trend or break it to change the character. And since it’s in this area that our 200 Weekly is located, it would suit us well.
Distribution or Accumulation ?
As much as MarkUp 1 is clear and straightforward, MarkUp 2 seems to have been rushed and “destroyed”, with a possible QUASIMODO leaved ! This pullback below the VAH, with that kind of LVN that even a dentist would think twice about how to fill it, confirm that we are still in a PHASE B.
If so, POC level (9.66%) is inevitable ; VAL (9.35%) could be lapped, and I don’t exclude squeeze a Spring below 9% at most 7.74% (200 Weekly) with a pull back. This would be a PHASE C, according to push dominance above 11% quickly. Otherwise, it will be a never-ending day (new lap till ST level).
Below 9%, I would be like a Mowgli with this important question if I should be back to the Jungle once I leaved it!
We have time. “Yellow candle” H4 triggered20 (10.28%) and POC is a magnet. This could confirm my BTC projection.
Conclusion
What could be the catalyst the confirm me the end of this tremendous Bear ?
On fundamentals ! I am still negative on this market till we did not wash it definitely ! 1.8M tokens, over 700 exchanges…. don’t you think it’s a lot ?
There will be projects that will be disappear once MIL:BTC will break 25k. 20k will be catastrophic
we should try the be more objective on :
SMO might end in Ukraine by December.
Taïwan – China will the next step !!!!!!
ECOWAS (G7) vs. Free African countries (BRICS)
US elections 2024
Binance issue + different new cases to come…
MICA law + CBDC attempt (typically test the market to try to interfere).
I am not talking about my POV over dislocation of the Europe. And more much to come in the next years. I don’t know what is the global current use of DeFi tools. I stopped at 8% worldwide…. We just entered in the Digital AGE and decentralised systems become usual. The Adoption will take some time.
USDT.D 1W until the end of 2023USDT.D looks strong. Current correction should end in the next week at level 7.52%
Last week of September will kickstart USDT.D's powerful rise up to 8.36% or even 9.23%.
This rise will be followed by a healthy correction, which will end in mid October.
Both scenarios Fast and Slow agree to show a radical appreciation of USDT starting from 16 October.
Only in mid November we will see possible correction and domination of one scenario out of the two shown. USDT.D might respect level 9.23% for some time or it might breakout and rise to 15.94% in the course from mid November to mid January 2024.
Thus crypto market might depreciate 50% by the end of 2023.
Is it global financial crisis coming?
🔥 Stablecoins Predicted Bitcoin DUMP🚨 100% Accurate Signal!In this analysis I want to take a closer look at my previous relative Stablecoin marketcap analysis back in August.
To be more precise, I'm measuring the stablecoin marketcap as a percentage of the total marketcap, which constructs this bullish channel pattern.
To build it yourself, put this in the TV search bar: (CRYPTOCAP:USDT+CRYPTOCAP:USDC)/CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
In my previous analysis I mentioned that this "indicator" has a 100% correctness-rate at predicting Bitcoin dumps. As of now, it has correctly predicted 4 major BTC tops.
It's still unclear to me whether we're going up for a few weeks, or that we go up for months and that this indicator will retest the top resistance. From a long-term investing perspective, I hope that we go up for months and go for a retest. Crypto will be extremely cheap at that point with a high probability for gains in the future.
Do you enjoy this indicator? What is your view on the market? Share your thoughts in the comments 🙏
