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Stablecoins

Stablecoin Market: A Clear Path to Bitcoin Over $700k?I've been following the strong correlation between stablecoin liquidity ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT , CRYPTOCAP:USDC , etc, here represented by CRYPTOCAP:STABLE.C ), and the Bitcoin price, and there's a very clear correlation between both. Why is there a correlation between the stablecoin market and BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ? An increase in stablecoin market cap means that more money is available to be invested in crypto and Bitcoin. The more stablecoin liquidity exists, the easier it is for investors to invest in crypto. That's why we see a very strong correlation between the stablecoin liquidity and Bitcoin: the long-term correlation is 86%. So now we know that BTC price follows the stablecoin liquidity. The GENIUS Act and the stablecoin market Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently posted that the stablecoin market could grow from the current $263 billion to $3.7 trillion. the data comes from a BIS report. Why does this matter? If the stablecoin market grows to $3.7 trillion and we continue to observe the high correlation with Bitcoin, the Bitcoin price would land between $700k and $1 million by 2030. Let me know your thoughts!
CRYPTOCAP:STABLE.CLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
Mastercard and Visa Shares Decline Due to Stablecoin BillMastercard (MA) and Visa (V) Shares Decline Due to Stablecoin Bill Yesterday, we reported that the US Senate had passed the GENIUS stablecoin bill, which establishes a legal framework for regulating the stablecoin market. This development led to a sharp rise in the share price of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN), while simultaneously putting pressure on Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) shares. According to media reports, market participants are concerned that stablecoins could pose serious competition to these companies, which earn revenue primarily from transaction fees. This serves as an example of how blockchain technology, with its low-cost features and high speed, could disrupt leaders in the traditional finance sector. Technical Analysis of Mastercard (MA) Stock Chart In May, MA shares formed an upward trend (shown in blue), but this was already broken by a strong downward move, accompanied by a wide bearish gap in the $575–$585 range. Near the lower boundary of the channel, a contracting triangle pattern (shown in black) can be observed – this can be interpreted as a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. However, it didn’t last long: the widening spread of bearish candles (1 and 2) indicates growing selling pressure. It’s possible that following a drop of over 9% from the June high, Mastercard (MA) shares might attract buyers betting on a short-term rebound. Nevertheless, in the longer term, developments related to the GENIUS bill could contribute to a continued downward trend. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:MA
by FXOpen
1
Where Is The Real HypeThis latest crypto cycle has been the hardest to navigate for even the most experienced crypto traders. No real Altcoin season has transpired, maybe best reflected by the fact that over 2 years into it, Ethereum still has not seen a new All-Time-High. That is not to say that there have not been winners. Hyperliquid, the 'decentralized' perpetuals exchange has taken the market by storm. The word 'decentralized' is in inverted commas as the extent of decentralization for the platform is debatable but starting with UX and product first, and arguably bringing in decentralization later, has so far proven to be winning strategy. The performance of the project's native token HYPE has been one of the few bright lights in this market. HYPE, the token, launched in what is an immaculate conception in crypto terms: no VCs who got in at better price levels, an airdrop that heavily rewarded the community, revenue-driven token buybacks. The project is a case-study on how to succeed in today's crypto world. Perpetuals trading is one of the core use-cases for crypto. Enabling perpetuals trading for jurisdictions where it is banned for retail via 'decentralization' is regulatory arbitrage at its best. Luckily, regulation-wise, the stars seem to have aligned. At the same time, crypto traders have been overwhelmed by large supplies of tokens dumped on the market at unfavorable terms for retail investors. Non-crypto retail on the other hand has been burned one too many times by mingling in our industry and has so far stayed out. Consequently, the vast majority of crypto tokens has simply not gone anywhere in this cycle so far. Where non-crypto retail funds go becomes visible when looking at the performance of various stock indices, pennystocks and even crypto-related stocks including Microstrategy. Even despite economic uncertainty and war, stocks are at all-time highs. On the institutional side, funds and tradfi have been playing the crypto-leverage game via instruments they are familiar with. We have spoken about Michael Saylor's strategy of borrowing funds to buy more Bitcoin many times in this newsletter previously. Other companies have copied the Microstrategy playbook in increasing numbers. 151 publicly traded companies now hold Bitcoin.  Meanwhile, the less 'degen' side of tradfi has focused its attention on stablecoins. The so-called 'GENIUS' Act to regulate stablecoins has just passed the US Senate with bi-partisan support. The performance of Circle's stock after its recent IPO is the best example for the growing Tradfi excitement over Stablecoins. A 5x return in a little over a week may remind crypto traders of happier days. It is certainly not the norm in Tradfi world. Stripe, the Fintech giant, has been acquiring crypto infra players including Bridge and Privy. Shopify has enabled stablecoin payments. Adoption comes slowly, then all at once. As the worlds of crypto and Tradfi continue to merge, opportunities for traders will continue to present themselves. We may be facing a quieter period in crypto markets right now. But the lessons of HYPE's immaculate conception are being studied by teams and founders around the industry. Inevitably, the possibilities of permission-less onchain finance will sooner or later lure back the traders. Until then, good luck looking for the next hype.
by Coinrule
1
1️⃣ Bitcoin. Analysis of US Treasury DocumentsHello, crypto enthusiasts, decentralization adepts, and those who still believe in "financial freedom". Get ready, because what you are about to read might shatter your template, but it will clarify where your beloved market is heading. In June 2016, the blockchain world witnessed an unprecedented event – the hacking of The DAO , which called into question the fundamental principles of decentralization and smart contract security. This incident not only led to Ethereum's historic hard fork but also became a powerful impetus for the development of safer and more reliable solutions in DeFi and DAOs. This article is dedicated to that event. Now, we won't be talking here about "future technology," "blockchain revolution," or how your shitcoin will fly to the moon. No. First, we'll talk about how the "system" is preparing to digest and rebuild the crypto market to suit its needs, using everything from Forbes covers to global economic crises. Here, the author shares not just predictions, but presents in an accessible form a broad understanding of the interconnected global processes, where crypto is just one 🧩 puzzle piece of the overall picture of the future digital "brave new world" of cyberpunk . This scenario is not someone's wishful thinking, but the most plausible course of events. You may like it, you may not, it doesn't matter; what matters is what you will do with this information next. The article will be divided into three separate ideas: 1️⃣ Main Idea: Analysis of US Treasury Documents 2️⃣ Who's Next? Or: Operation "Saving Private Saylor" 3️⃣ Altcoins and the US Crypto Reserve Get ready, the article will intentionally be long to immediately filter out all "clip-thinking" gamblers. In general, everything as you love it, written with love in a rebellious style, with a 🤏"touch" of cynicism, sarcasm, and tragicomedy. If you are interested in continuing any of the topics, follow the links (which will be below), and then return to this root idea. So, let's go! 1️⃣ Main Idea: Bitcoin and Crypto. Analysis of US Treasury Documents For a long time, the world of cryptocurrencies was the "Wild West" – a place where anonymity, quick money, and the dream of complete independence from traditional banks and governments reigned. Bitcoin, with its idea of "digital gold," became a symbol of this freedom, promising refuge from inflation and manipulation by fiat currencies. But, as they say, the "Wild West" doesn't stay wild for long, especially when trillions of dollars and a threat to global financial stability – which is, of course, always "national" – loom on the horizon. It's no longer a secret that US authorities and major financial institutions are carefully studying and analyzing the digital asset market. In this article, we will uncover a multi-step scenario where the "invisible hand of the market" is actually controlled by quite visible structures. We will show how a series of seemingly independent events – from the media's "Forbes curse" to an inevitable financial crisis – perfectly fits into a plan to create a US "crypto-reserve" and fully integrate (read: subjugate) digital assets into the traditional, centralized financial system. Prepare for the harsh truth. This is not a story about crypto saving the world from fiat slavery. This is a story about how the fiat system, when faced with a challenge, adapts and absorbs the threat, using its own ideas. And, unfortunately for some, it will do so at the expense of those who believed in unlimited growth. Let's dive into the details of this cunning plan, where Michael Saylor is not just an investor, but a key figure in this spectacle of life unfolding before our eyes. 📜 Our "sacred scriptures" – this is an analysis of three crucial documents published on the US Treasury website: 1. The Future of Money and Payments (FM&P, September 2022): This is like Grandpa's first tentative step into using a smartphone. "Oh, what's this interesting thing you have here? Fast? Cheap? And here we old folks are still rustling with checks..." 2. Digital Assets and the Treasury Market (DA&TM, October 2024): Here Grandpa already figured out that the smartphone can count money. "So, these 'stablecoins' of yours – they're buying our bonds? That's even better than the Chinese!" 3. Digital Money (DM, April 2025): And here Grandpa is confidently tapping the screen and even seems to be trying to take a selfie. "Alright, stablecoins are our new MMFs, and if anything happens – I'll arrange a 'run' for you, like in 2008! And your Bitcoin is just 'digital gold' for nervous investors who run from our inflation to it, and then back to us for a hedge!" Forget about conspiracy theories – they're writing it themselves! Documents like those presented by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) clearly outline their views on "Digital Assets" and "Digital Money." In these reports, Bitcoin is no longer a "speculative toy," but a "store of value, aka 'digital gold' in the decentralized world of DeFi". And if it's "gold," then, by their logic, it should belong to the state, shouldn't it? Prepare yourselves, because today we're going to look under the hood of how serious gentlemen from the American financial elite suddenly "fell in love" with digital assets. ❓ So, what are these US financial authorities really trying to achieve? By studying and analyzing this open information, one can understand the scope and plans of the US financial elites. The main aspects extracted from those three documents are highlighted below: 1. The dollar is the world's drug, and we will control the dose, even in digital form! Stablecoins? They're our "digital servants"! In DA&TM and DM, they are no longer just "digital assets," but "ubiquitous cash on the blockchain". And most importantly – these naive crypto-enthusiasts (without even knowing it) are buying short-term US Treasury bonds as collateral! This is a goldmine! We're already printing debt, and now the crypto market is financing it. "Thank you for using our services to ensure your unstable stability!" "Wildcat banknotes" vs. "real dollar": DM doesn't hesitate to draw direct historical parallels. "Remember those 'wildcat banknotes' in the 1800s? Poorly collateralized, constant runs... And then the government came and said: 'Want reliability? Here's our dollar!'" It's the same story with stablecoins: "Your USDT and USDC are nice, of course, but only if they are 100% backed by our T-bills. Otherwise – no offense, but we remember the Terra/Luna story (and can repeat it if necessary), and you certainly don't need such happiness!" "Your 'stable' coins must be our stable coins!" DM explicitly states: "Stablecoins will be regulated as narrow banks or money market funds!" This means: no more shenanigans with 'algorithmic' wonder-coins, like Terra! Now you will be backed only by highly liquid, risk-free assets... guess which ones? That's right, our own, American Treasury bonds ! Hello, Tether, you are now officially our best client! "Our CBDC is not 'Bitcoin for the people,' but a 'prison blockchain' for control!" FM&P cautiously hints at CBDC as a "safe" alternative. But let's be honest: they don't just want a "convenient" digital currency. They want complete control. To know where every cent went, so that no Uncle Vasya can conduct a suspicious transaction without oversight. It's as if the NSA released its own crypto in 2008 – super-duper secure and decentralized, but every sneeze you make on the blockchain is recorded and tracked. 2. "We're for innovation! But only if it's on our platform, under our control, and preferably – on a private blockchain where you won't stick your curious nose!" "Blockchain is cool! But not the one you're on!" DA&TM clearly states: "Public, permissionless blockchains? Oh, no, that's a nightmare! Scalability is lame, security is questionable, and let's not even talk about money laundering! We don't want every John Doe to be able to anonymously transfer millions. We need 'private and permissioned blockchains' where we know who's doing what, and can control everything." "Tokenization is not a revolution, it's just a new Word for old documents!" Yes, they talk about "increasing efficiency" and "atomic settlements". But, in essence, they want to take their old, dusty Treasury bonds, slap a "token" on them and say: "Look, we're trendy too! Now you can 'instantly' exchange our bonds!" It's like buying a new iPhone but installing Windows 95 on it. Looks trendy, but works old-school. Tokenization of Treasury bonds is not for your pet hamster to buy a share in a T-bill, it's for "atomic settlements" and "improved collateral management" between large banks and institutions. If anything gets faster, it's their corporate ⚙️ gears, not your small transactions. 3. "Financial stability means your money is with us, not on some DeFi protocol!" "We remember 2008 and 2020! And your stablecoins are MMFs on steroids!" DM very clearly shows that "runs" on stablecoins are exactly the same as "runs" on money market funds during a crisis. And the consequences? "Fire sales" of Treasury bonds, falling prices, chaos. "So, folks, if you want to be 'stable,' be like our MMFs – backed only by our government's risk-free securities!" "Banks are sacred, and don't encroach on their deposits!" DM expresses unambiguous concern that these "interest-bearing stablecoins" could draw deposits away from banks. And this, begging your pardon, "could negatively affect banks' ability to attract deposits and make loans". That is, on bank profits. And we cannot allow that, because banks are the pillars of our system! Thus, the "US financial authorities" are not just a group of boring accountants. They are strategists who play the long game. They cannot (or do not want to) stop the crypto revolution, but they can direct it into a channel that is beneficial to them. They want to: "Regulate" stablecoins so they are simply a digital embodiment of their Treasury bonds. Use blockchain for their own infrastructure, but with such centralization and control that Satoshi Nakamoto would turn over in their anonymous grave. Ultimately, issue their own "digital dollar" (CBDC), which will be both "innovative" (in words) and "controlled" (in practice), so that no "private digital currency" infringes on their monopoly. This is not about "freedom," it's about "controlled dominance". They are not chasing the crypto train – they are buying it, repainting it in the colors of the American flag, renaming it the "Financial Stability Express," and selling tickets that you will buy with your own, strictly regulated, stablecoins. Our three documents are not just bureaucratic papers. They are, in essence, a strategic plan to "tame the beast" and redirect its energy in the right direction. Or, as some official would say, "optimization of national interests". And in our language – "how not to lose global financial hegemony while these hipsters play with their numbers". In the end, the US financial authorities are engaged in a kind of "digital colonialism". They cannot ignore blockchain and crypto, because it's no longer just "internet money for geeks," but a multi-trillion dollar market. Therefore, their goal is not to fight windmills, but to build their own, much more efficient windmills on the wind of digital innovations. And at the same time, ensure that all these windmills grind flour for their loaf of bread, that is, for the US dollar. They want you to continue using the dollar, even if it's "digital". They want your "stable" assets to generate income for them by buying their bonds. They want any "effective" blockchain solutions to be under their watchful eye, so that no one escapes into the "wild, unregulated" world of anonymity and decentralization. This is not about "freedom of financial innovation," it's about "innovation under strict supervision". Or, if you prefer, "controlled digital expansion". After all, what's the point of new technology if it doesn't serve the interests of good old hegemony? 🔍 Let's examine in more detail what is stated in the document: "Digital Money" (DM, April 2025). Or "The American Pump: Why Washington Wants 2 Trillion of Your 'Stablecoins' (and what they'll get for it)" Imagine, our bureaucratic friends from TBAC (a club of clever people who whisper with the US Treasury) held a secret meeting in April 2025. And what did they see there? A prophecy! 💥 A prophecy that the stablecoin market, currently hovering around $234 billion, will soar to $2 trillion by 2028! That's an 8.5x increase, if you can count! A typical crypto bro would say: "Whoa, pump! We're making x's!" But a serious uncle from the Treasury would say: "Excellent structural demand for our Treasury bonds! Finally, these 'digital monies' are working for us!" So, how is the US government going to arrange this "pump" without admitting it? 📝 The "Digital Milking Machine" Scenario (or why your stablecoin is their new wallet): "Our Dollar – Your Problem!" ▫️ "Stablecoins? They're our best friends!" At first, they frowned, saying, "anonymous, decentralized, risky." But then they saw that 99% of stablecoins are just digital dollars, pegged to their own paper! And they are used as "cash on the blockchain," meaning people in the crypto world are already actively using them. "Aha," they thought, "so the world has already accepted our dollar in digital form, even without our direct involvement. Excellent! Now we need to ride this and monetize it." ▫️ "Hey, stablecoins, buy more of our bonds!" The cherry on top from DA&TM: "Stablecoins hold $120 billion in Treasury bonds!" And if the market grows to $2 trillion, imagine: how much will that be in our precious, ever-deficient T-bills? It's just a celebration! "Please, keep issuing your stablecoins, the more the better! And we will give you paper with interest. And you, naive ones, will think it's 'collateral,' and we will think it's 'a new source of financing our debt'!" "Regulation is Love (for our interests)!" ▫️ "We will regulate you to death... so you can be 'stable'!" TBAC explicitly states: "If history teaches anything, stablecoins must be regulated like 'narrow banks' or 'money market funds'". This is not for your safety, folks, it's for theirs. "We don't want you playing with 'algorithmic stability' and crashing markets like Terra/Luna. No, no, now you will walk the line, backing every dollar of yours with OUR Treasury bonds. Because only that is 'real' risk-free collateral, right?" ▫️ "But your 'interest-bearing' stablecoins... we don't really like them!" Why? Because they can "compete with bank deposits" and "undermine banks' ability to make loans". That is, if your stablecoins start earning you real interest, you'll run from the banks! And that's an assault on the sacred. "Propaganda for 'Tokenization' is a new 'quantum leap' (for our national debt)!" ▫️ "Tokenization? What's that? Oh, it's just our new way to sell bonds!" FM&P and DA&TM talk about "increasing efficiency of clearing and settlement" through tokenization. Sounds boring, but the meaning is this: "We want to make our national debt even more liquid and accessible. If these crypto-guys love tokens so much, then let our bonds be tokens too! And then, who knows, retail might follow, through these 'tokenized Treasury bond funds'!" ▫️ "Forget 'decentralization' for bonds, that's only for 'us'!" DA&TM clearly states: "Public blockchains are garbage for Treasury bonds". They need "private, permissioned blockchains". This means: "Blockchain is cool, but only if it's controlled by us, our banks, and you sit there like mice and don't make a peep. No anonymous movements!" So yes, the US government will indeed "pump" the crypto market, but not in the way you think. It won't buy Bitcoin or Ethereum (at least not openly). It will "pump" the stablecoin market because it's: A brilliant way to finance its own national debt by attracting capital from the crypto world. An ideal tool to expand the global influence of the dollar, making it convenient "digital cash" in decentralized ecosystems, but under its control. A method of "taming" the wild crypto-west, forcing it to play by its rules of financial stability, lest any glitch should harm their "traditional" system. It's as if a casino decided to "pump" its players by saying: "We'll let you play with chips that are backed by our own debts. The more chips you make, the more of our debts you buy! And if your chips crash, that's your problem, because we warned you it was 'risky'!" So, yes, expect stablecoin capitalization to grow by at least $2 trillion by 2028. 🎮 All right, if you want to delve deeper into these documents yourself, follow the links above, and we'll move on. Now let's play a guessing game with you. The task: by elimination, figure out who on this list are "their guys" for the US government, who is a "stranger," and who cannot be touched, and who can or even should (from the US perspective) be "taken advantage of"? 📊 Largest Known BTC Holders (as of May 2025): 1. US Government: ~200,000 BTC (confiscated during investigations) 2. Satoshi Nakamoto: ~1.1 million BTC (not moved since mining) 3. BlackRock (iShares Bitcoin Trust - IBIT): ~650,000 BTC 4. Fidelity (Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - FBTC): >200,000 BTC 5. MicroStrategy (MSTR): ~576,000 BTC (as of May 2025) 6. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC): ~187,000 BTC (outflows occurring) 7. Coinbase (reserves): >600,000 BTC (exchange balance, including client funds) 8. Binance (reserves): >500,000 BTC (exchange balance, including client funds) 9. Bitfinex (reserves): ~400,000 BTC (exchange balance, including client funds) 10. Gemini (reserves): >127,000 BTC (balance including client funds) 11. Tether (USDT, own reserves): ~100,000 BTC (in addition to fiat reserves) 🧮 Who are "their guys" and who is a "stranger"? Distribution of influence in the crypto market. In the grand game for control over the future financial landscape, especially in the digital asset sphere, the US government and its affiliated traditional financial institutions act strategically. Their goal is not to destroy cryptocurrencies, but to integrate and subjugate them on their own terms , creating a "National Crypto Reserve" and a new, controlled digital financial infrastructure. This process implies a clear distinction: who is "one of us" (a useful or tamed element of the system), and who is a "target" (a source of assets or a potential object for threat elimination). There are also unique cases that fall outside this dichotomy. Let's analyze the list of the largest BTC holders as of May 2025 from this perspective: "Their Guys" (fully integrated, tamed, or cooperating): These players are already deeply embedded in the traditional US financial system or are actively striving for full regulatory compatibility. For the US government, they are either direct partners or "tamed" assets that contribute to achieving strategic goals. They are not touched, but used as tools or components. 1. US Government (~200,000 BTC): Status: absolute "their guy" and main player. They are the ones who will "take advantage" of others. They are the ones who set the rules and collect dividends. Their Bitcoins are confiscated assets, a "free" replenishment of the future "National Crypto Reserve". 2. BlackRock (iShares Bitcoin Trust - IBIT: ~650,000 BTC) and Fidelity (Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - FBTC: >200,000 BTC): Status: key institutional "their guys" from traditional finance. These are Wall Street giants who have received SEC approval for their spot Bitcoin ETFs. Their massive BTC accumulations are not speculation, but a strategic integration of cryptocurrencies into the existing system. They act as main gateways for institutional capital, channeling it into a regulated stream. They are actively involved in shaping the new financial architecture, for example, BlackRock with the BUIDL fund for tokenized Treasury bonds, which fully aligns with the TBAC vision. They cannot be touched; they are part of the control mechanism. 3. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC: ~187,000 BTC): Status: tamed "their guy." After the trust's conversion to an ETF and massive outflows, GBTC came under direct SEC control. Despite asset losses, the remaining assets are now in a regulated product. Grayscale was forced to fully adapt to the system's rules. There's no need to touch it – it's already in the system. 4. Coinbase (reserves: >600,000 BTC): Status: key "their guy" in the US crypto market. This is the largest regulated American crypto exchange that actively cooperates with authorities. Coinbase serves as the "main entrance" for retail and institutional investors in the US. Its transparency and compliance make it indispensable for the system as a tool for data collection and control over fund movements. It will not be touched, but will be used as part of the regulated infrastructure. 5. Tether (USDT, own reserves: ~100,000 BTC): Status: "tamed" and useful "their guy." Tether, being the largest holder of US Treasury bonds, is already deeply integrated into the financial system. The system does not seek to destroy it, but to fully subjugate it to regulatory control. For the government, it is a source of demand for their debt (Treasury bonds) and a potential tool for controlling digital flows. It will be "regulated" in the sense of "finally brought to heel," so that it becomes absolutely transparent and controllable, essentially a private digital dollar under supervision. (See DA&TM pp. 4, 17, 25). 6. Bitfinex (reserves: ~400,000 BTC): Status: "their guy" through affiliation with Tether. Since Tether is already recognized as "their guy" and is under regulatory pressure, its affiliated structures, such as Bitfinex, also automatically fall under this logic. If Tether is "tamed," then Bitfinex, as part of the same ecosystem and holding significant assets, will also be forced to comply with the same standards of transparency and compliance. This is not a "stranger" in the full sense, but rather a "younger brother" controlled through the elder. 7. Binance (reserves: >500,000 BTC): Status: already "regulated." Lawsuits, multi-billion dollar fines, and CZ's removal are classic examples of how the system forced the largest global, but previously less regulated, player into submission. Now Binance, although still a powerful force, is forced to operate within the given rules. It no longer needs to be "touched" in the same sense – it has been "tamed" and included in the sphere of influence. 8. Gemini (reserves: >127,000 BTC): Status: "their guy," but with caveats. Gemini is an American exchange actively striving for compliance. Despite past regulatory difficulties (e.g., with the Earn program), it remains part of the regulated American crypto infrastructure. It will be used to control flows, but also kept under constant supervision. Neutral Player (not participating in the game): This anonymous entity is outside the system of control and is neither "their guy" nor a "target" in the traditional sense. Satoshi Nakamoto (~1.1 million BTC): Status: Neutral, not participating in the game, and untouchable. These Bitcoins remain untouched and symbolize true decentralization and uncontrollability. The US government cannot touch them , unless "Satoshi" himself decides to move funds to a regulated platform or an incredible cryptographic vulnerability is found. So, the only major target that can be 'taken advantage of' is, 🥁 drumroll: Micro Strategy (MSTR: ~576,000 BTC) Status: 🎯 Main Target. Although Michael Saylor is a prominent Bitcoin supporter, and Micro Strategy is a public company, their aggressive accumulation strategy (often through debt) makes them extremely vulnerable to the price of Bitcoin. In the event of a serious market crash, Micro Strategy will face enormous pressure (margin calls, debt obligations). In such a scenario, their significant assets could become targets for forced liquidation or acquisition by organizations with deeper pockets and government backing. Their "high-beta" nature (as described in TBAC documents) makes them vulnerable. For the continuation of Michael's story, see the separately published idea: 2️⃣ Operation: "Saving Private Saylor." Or how Uncle Sam "nationalizes" Bitcoin while Michael is busy with micro-strategies. 🎼 "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes" – and for Michael Saylor, this rhyme echoes with unsettling persistence. In 2000, he, the shining dot-com hero, faced the prose of numbers when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) knocked on his door . The overstatement of revenue by MarginCallStrategy MicroStrategy and non-compliance with "Generally Accepted Accounting Principles" (GAAP) – all this led to a restatement of financial results and a stock collapse of -60% in a day, and then almost -90% in a few weeks. But this episode was just the first line in a long poem. Two decades later, Michael Saylor re-emerged on the scene, now as a prophet of "digital gold," transforming his company into the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. His passionate belief in decentralization and the unique nature of BTC is striking. He claims that Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation, an eternal store of value, immune to the manipulations of the fiat system. But the louder his sermons about Bitcoin, the more they rhyme with the past: excessive confidence, public bravado, and disregard for fundamental risks. History does not repeat itself literally, but it rhymes. Michael Saylor in 2000 and Michael Saylor today are two lines of the same poem, where the final chord will belong not to "digital gold" in its pristine, decentralized form, but to "tokenized government bonds" and CBDCs, which will become the foundation of a new, controlled financial order. Bitcoin, of course, will survive another -70% collapse, but in a completely new role that better suits Washington's needs than the dreams of crypto-anarchists. Let's delve deeper. To avoid overloading the article, it has been decided to publish the section on altcoins and the scenario for replenishing the US "Crypto-Reserve" separately from the main root idea. If you are interested in learning how the government intends to make the US the "crypto capital of the world," and the fate of altcoins with a forecast for 2025-2028, follow the link: 3️⃣ Altcoins and the US "Crypto-Reserve" Excellent, let's continue. Now we are on the home stretch! Connecting all the dots: the Forbes curse, the inevitable crash, the insidious plans of the US government, and finally, the final mega-pump. Washington's Grand Crypto-Gambit: How they will crash the market to orchestrate a 'Final Pump' (and why they need your altcoins at dirt-cheap prices for this) My previously published basic crypto forecast is not just relevant – it is becoming even more ominously realistic; it's just (as usual) slightly shifted in time. Because the "big guys" in Washington are not some Elon Musks who pump with tweets. They work on a schedule, and their schedule is called "global economic recession," which the Democrats have stubbornly delayed until Trump's presidency since 2023. ◻️ Part 1: "Pre-Pump Cleanse" – Why a crash is coming (and why Bitcoin won't hold up either) 2025-2026. While you rejoice that Bitcoin is demonstrating "phenomenal resilience," trading around $75,000 - $100,000 (thanks to Bitcoin ETFs and migrating Chinese, at least some demand!), I'll tell you straight - it's an illusion. It's like the last dance before the fall. ▫️Bitcoin – king, but on a shaky throne: Yes, demand from ETFs and "fleeing capital" from China have kept the price around $100k for the last three quarters. But, let me remind you what TBAC said (and that, by the way, is the voice of the Treasury!): Bitcoin is a "high-beta asset." This means it amplifies market movements. If the stock market sneezes pretty hard (down -30-40%), Bitcoin will catch pneumonia (down -60-70%). ▫️Alts – it's already a "bloodbath": While Bitcoin is setting its historical highs (essentially drawn on the enthusiasm of new funds), alts are already howling in pain. The altcoin index CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS is already -40% lower since the beginning of the year, with its capitalization falling from $450 billion to $260 billion. The Impending (US-Managed) Armageddon in the Markets: "Debt market? What's that?" The absence of buyers in the debt market (hello, USA, Japan, EU!) – this is not just a "small problem," it's a systemic crack. Who will finance all these government expenditures if no one wants to buy bonds? "Liquidity? What liquidity?" The liquidity problems in the global "Eurodollar" financial system are no longer a joke. When the world's largest financial arteries become clogged, blood stops flowing. US stock market (SP500 and NDQ100) crash of -30-50% from their ATH in 2025. This is not just a "scare," it's a controlled demolition of an old building to construct a new one. And in the still "very small cryptocurrency market" (by traditional market standards, of course), this will result in a further -60-80% drop from current levels! Buckle up, Bitcoin to $30,000 - $50,000! Yes, my forecast is harsh, but realistic. Before a new phase of growth for the entire cryptocurrency market (yes, not just Bitcoin, but your beloved altcoins too), we are obliged to see a final sell-off. ◻️ Part 2: "Final Pump: When Uncle Sam Becomes Your Crypto-Manager" (2026-2028) This is where it gets really interesting. After the market is flushed out, "weak hands" are eliminated, and Michael Saylor's (and many others') "digital gold" is "nationalized" at a bargain price, they will enter the stage – the US authorities. "Our dollar – your digital wallet!" Remember TBAC's forecasts that the stablecoin market will grow to $2 trillion by 2028? This is no coincidence. It's a plan. They don't want to "pump" Bitcoin; they want to "pump" their stablecoins, which, of course, will be 100% backed by their own Treasury bonds. This is the ideal mechanism for financing their bottomless debt! "Regulation? No, it's controlled growth!" They will "regulate" the market to make it safe... for them. Stablecoins will become "narrow banks," and private blockchains – "permissioned." This means: "Use our 'digital currency' (stablecoins), buy our bonds with them, and everything will be fine. And if you want 'innovations,' only on our centralized infrastructure!" "Tokenization of all America": When traditional markets are in ruins, they will announce a "new era" – the era of tokenization! Tokenized Treasury bonds (convenient for buying with your stablecoins!), tokenized stocks (after the crash, they will become very "attractive" for buying via blockchain!), tokenized real estate... And all this under the supervision of "reliable" centralized structures. "Final explosive growth" (under control): It is precisely this controlled growth, this inflow of liquidity through stablecoins and the tokenization of traditional assets, provoked and financed by the US authorities, that will be the "final explosive growth" for the entire crypto market in 2027-2028. Crypto will grow not because it is "decentralized," but because it has finally been "tamed" and integrated into the global financial system, but on Big Brother's terms. 📉 Periodic Crashes – A Tool for Capital Redistribution Many current fresh gamblers "investors" don't understand a simple thing: periodic crashes in financial markets, be it stocks or cryptocurrencies, are not a "bug" or an accident, but a built-in "feature" of the system itself. This is a powerful tool for redistributing capital, constantly transferring wealth from some to others. At each turn of the economic cycle, when "bubbles" inflate (be it dot-coms, mortgages, or crypto), and then deflate with a resounding crash, a massive redistribution of wealth occurs. This is not a natural disaster, but rather a well-oiled mechanism. Accumulation of assets by "dumb money": During periods of rapid growth, when markets are overheated and assets are rising rapidly, "dumb money" enters the game – that is, ordinary retail investors, small speculators, newcomers without a deep understanding of risks. Inspired by stories of successful success and the fear of missing out (FOMO), they pour their savings into the market at its peak, often using borrowed funds or buying the most volatile and overpriced assets. They buy "hype," not value. It is here that MicroStrategy, aggressively buying Bitcoin with borrowed funds, becomes a symbol of this vulnerability, albeit on a larger scale. Shaking out weak hands: For the "system," there are two main methods to get rid of "excess passengers" and "weak hands" in the market. The first is sharp, panic-driven crashes, when fear forces investors to sell assets at a loss, just to "get out of the game." The second, no less effective, is the exhaustion of enthusiasm over time (prolonged periods of stagnation). These are months or even years of boring "sideways" trading (trading in a narrow range) or slow but steady price declines. At such moments, the belief in quick profits fades, and investors, especially those who invested in altcoins without fundamental understanding, lose patience and leave, abandoning their assets at throwaway prices. Both methods effectively "clear out" inexperienced or insufficiently patient participants. Creating "liquidity" for institutions: Crashes and price declines, as well as periods of stagnation, create what is called "liquidity" – an opportunity for large players to buy assets at significantly discounted prices. When the market is "bleeding," or when "hamsters" get tired of waiting and sell everything in despair, that's the "meat" that the "falling knife" provides for "smart money." Benefits for "smart money": Giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, Vanguard, or legendary investors like Warren Buffett, do not invest in "hype." They create trends and wait. They possess enormous capital reserves, access to insider information (analytics, government plans, such as TBAC documents), and, most importantly, iron discipline and patience. They do not succumb to panic; they create it when needed! When markets are bleeding and "ordinary mortals" sell everything in a panic, these "sharks" of the financial world go hunting, buying quality assets (be it stocks, real estate, or even Bitcoin, which is already recognized as "digital gold" in certain circles) at prices inaccessible to small players. Centralization of wealth: As a result of each such cycle, a further centralization of wealth occurs. Capital flows from less informed, less disciplined, and more emotional market participants to those who play by the rules of the "big game," having access to resources, analytics, and, possibly, even a certain influence on the system itself. Market crashes are not system errors, but its key redistribution function, allowing capital to remain in the hands of the elite and constantly increasing their share of the overall wealth pie. This is a brutal but extremely effective mechanism of "natural selection" in the world of finance. And these are not some "conspiracy theories" but the harsh truth, whether someone likes it or not. According to 2022 data, people with capital over $1 million, making up only 1.1% of the world's population, own ~50% of the world's wealth, while the richest 12.2% of people own over 85%. At the same time, the poorest 55% of the planet's population controls only 1.3% of the world's wealth. Between these two poles, about half of the global wealth is (for now) dispersed. And in 2026-2028, you will have the last chance to enter this "middle class," which is systematically being destroyed by those at the top of the pyramid. ✴️ Your place in the "New World Crypto-Order" (or why freedom is an illusion) We live in an era when even the seemingly most "decentralized" and "independent" market, like crypto, ultimately finds itself under the close scrutiny of those who hold the strings of the global financial system. Documents like TBAC (which you will hopefully now read with double attention) are not just bureaucratic reports; they are roadmaps to how "Big Brother" intends to integrate, and essentially subordinate, the "wild" world of digital assets to its interests. So, we have established that: The upcoming stock market crash and, consequently, crypto crash in 2025-2026 – this is not just an "unexpected market correction," but an inevitable managed stage of "cleansing" that will allow the "system" to get rid of "weak hands" and acquire assets at a discount. Your altcoins, which are already bleeding, will become even cheaper before they are picked up by those who know what they are doing. "Pump" of stablecoins to at least $2 trillion by 2028 – this is not a sign of your victory, but a brilliant way for the US government to find a new, bottomless source of financing for its ever-growing national debt. Your "stable" money will become their "stable" bonds, as most stablecoins, especially USDT and USDC, are backed by US Treasury bonds, which creates direct and massive demand for US debt obligations. "Continued growth of stablecoins... will create structural demand for short-term US Treasury obligations." (DA&TM, p. 16) The narrative "Bitcoin – digital gold" – this is not just a marketing ploy by crypto enthusiasts, but a convenient concept that the government can use to "nationalize" large crypto assets at a bargain price and use them for its own benefit. The hidden, but key goal of this narrative is to create a new, global tool for absorbing and refinancing part of the colossal US national debt. The higher the recognition and price of "digital gold" controlled by the state, the more financial leverage it will gain to manage its obligations, turning a decentralized asset into a new pillar of the fiat system . ❓ What does this mean for us, mere mortals, trapped in this crypto-matrix? This means that the next six months are a time not for euphoria and not for buying a "strategic reserve," but for strategic retreat and patient waiting. While "Big Brother" squeezes the market and prepares for the "nationalization" of crypto assets through defaults and margin calls, we should: Keep a finger on the pulse of the global economy: Attention to the debt market, Eurodollar liquidity problems, and the predicted stock market crash in 2025 – this is not background noise, these are the main indicators of the upcoming "cleansing." Forget about FOMO for Bitcoin at $100k: These are just the death throes of a "bull market," supported by artificial demand. The target range of $30-50k is an entry point that "their boys" are preparing for themselves. Aim for altcoins: Your favorite altcoins, which have already fallen by -40% since the beginning of the year and still have room to fall (by -60-80% from current levels) – this is where the real "bloody auction" will be. It is these assets that, after the crash, will become most attractive to those who understand what will follow the market "cleansing" and which coins will end up in that very US "crypto-reserve." 🏁 Final Act: Controlled Explosive Growth (2026-2028) When the dust settles, and Michael Saylor's (and many others') Bitcoins are in the hands of the "State Crypto-Reserve" at a large discount, the real "pump" will begin. But this will not be a pump of "decentralization" or "freedom." This will be controlled, institutional, government-funded growth, based on: Excess liquidity created by banksters. Growth in the broad cryptocurrency market, especially on such a massive scale, is impossible without an influx of "cheap" money into the global financial system. For this excess liquidity to appear, appropriate conditions must be created: low-interest rates (close to zero) and a reactivated "printing press" (Quantitative Easing – QE). To achieve this, the stock market (and, consequently, the traditional economy) must first be sharply crashed to force the Fed to abruptly "change course" and begin "saving" the economy by injecting trillions of dollars into the system. This "flood" of liquidity will be the fuel for a new wave of crypto market growth, but strictly under the control of their guys institutions. Trillions of stablecoins, backed by US national debt. These stablecoins, as we already understand, create structural demand for short-term US Treasury obligations, becoming a powerful tool for managing national debt. Mass tokenization of traditional assets on "private, permissioned blockchains" managed by banksters. This will create huge new markets and capital flows that will be controlled by their players. And, of course, a legitimized Bitcoin as "digital gold," which will now be in safe government hands, not with some "alchemists" or "micro-strategists." 💡 Be smart, not emotional. The cryptocurrency market – is not just a set of charts and technologies. It's a battlefield where the interests of decentralization and centralized control clash. In the coming years, we will see how the last "wild" frontier of digital assets will be integrated into the traditional financial system. Your task is to understand this scenario, step aside while the "elephants dance," and prepare to enter when "blood is flowing in the streets." Only then will you be able to become part of this final explosive growth, which, ironically, will be provoked and financed by the very forces that are now trying to herd crypto into a corral. ⚠️ See you in 2026! And remember: knowledge and understanding – this is your only superpower in this zero-sum game, as everyone, to the extent of their understanding, works for themselves, and to the extent of their misunderstanding – for those who know and understand more. 🚀 As a token of gratitude, don't forget to hit the rocket under this unique work. 🙏 Thank you for your attention. 📟 Stay in touch.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by T_A_R_A_S
Raoul Pal's Big Banana. $100 Trillion dollars Crypto market.And how on earth do we reach that point? Is Raoul's thesis regarding the exponential age accurate, suggesting we have until 2030 to invest and reap the benefits; so "don't F@ck this up!" As a charting enthusiast, I am eager to see if there exists a technical foundation that could allow us to teleport to those levels and estimate how many years it might take. Let's examine the entire crypto market, which includes everything from stable coins to tangible real world assets like Gold. We can distinctly identify three significant consolidation patterns. Rising wedge #1 a sideways pennant rising pennant #2 Now, considering this is a logarithmic chart. It provides us with logarithmic amplitudes and projections. An amplitude is a calculated move based on the boundaries of the consolidation pattern. Essentially, it involves taking the top and bottom width and applying it to the breakout point for a rising pattern. In a #HVF, we utilise the midline of the funnel to forecast targets. The projections illustrated on this chart pertain to the sideways pennant, employing the flagpole to establish our target. It is this sideways pennant pole projection that leads us to 100 trillion dollars and beyond. Test it out for yourself if you find it hard to believe these figures could become a reality :) So there we have it; yes, 100 trillion dollars may appear excessively optimistic and fantastical, especially since we are currently at 3.28 trillion dollars. However, the charts indicate that Crypto could indeed be the sector where the majority of financial transactions take place in the forthcoming exponential future.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by BallaJi
World Liberty Financial STABLECOIN | Everything YOU Need to KnowWorld Liberty Financial (WLFI), a DeFi lending protocol launched in 2024 and notably associated with the Trump family, is currently executing a key operational test for its new stablecoin, USD1. This U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin was introduced in March 2025 and backed by Treasuries and cash equivalents. It has already seen rapid adoption, surpassing $2.1 billion in circulation. To validate their on-chain distribution systems ahead of a wider rollout, WLFI is conducting a test airdrop, proposing to send a small and fixed amount of USD1 to all existing $WLFI token holders on the Ethereum Mainnet. A governance vote on this proposal, set to conclude this Wednesday, May 14th shows overwhelming community support, with over 99.9% approval which is signalling confidence in the initiative's technical goals and community reward aspect. Investors should note that while the vote seems assured, critical details like the exact USD1 amount per wallet and the precise airdrop date are yet to be announced, pending the vote's finalization. Also, WLFI retains discretion to modify or cancel this test distribution. This operational step occurs against a backdrop of significant scrutiny surrounding WLFI, stemming from its high-profile political connections, reported investigations, and potential conflicts of interest highlighted in various media outlet. this test airdrop represents a practical infrastructure check and a community engagement tactic for WLFI as it builds out the ecosystem for its rapidly growing USD1 stablecoin. For current $WLFI holders, it presents a small token distribution contingent on final details announced after May 14th. For prospective investors, it's an operational milestone to observe, weighing the technical progress and market adoption of USD1 against the unique regulatory and political risks associated with the World Liberty Financial project. ____________ BYBIT:WLFUSDT
W
by Crypto-Check-
Euro Stablecoin BOOMS: Bye, USD?The Euro Stablecoin Ascends: EURC Hits Record High as Traders Eye Dollar Alternatives Amid Global Uncertainty For years, the digital asset landscape has been dominated by the US dollar, not just in trading volume but fundamentally through the ubiquity of USD-pegged stablecoins. Tokens like Tether (USDT) and Circle's own USD Coin (USDC) have become the bedrock of the crypto economy, acting as crucial bridges between volatile cryptocurrencies and traditional fiat, facilitating trading, lending, and yield generation within decentralized finance (DeFi). However, the winds of change may be subtly shifting. Amidst a backdrop of persistent global trade tensions, geopolitical maneuvering, and questions surrounding the long-term trajectory of the US dollar, alternative fiat-backed stablecoins are gaining traction. Leading this nascent charge is the Euro Coin (EURC), Circle's Euro-backed offering, which recently surged to a record market capitalization exceeding $246 million. This milestone, while still dwarfed by its multi-billion dollar USD counterparts, is significant. It signals a growing appetite among traders, investors, and institutions for stable digital assets pegged to currencies other than the greenback. The rise of EURC isn't happening in a vacuum; it reflects a confluence of factors challenging the dollar's undisputed reign in the digital sphere and highlighting the strategic appeal of diversification. Understanding the Stablecoin Status Quo and the Dollar's Dominance Stablecoins are indispensable cogs in the crypto machine. They offer price stability relative to a specific asset (usually a major fiat currency), allowing market participants to park funds, calculate profits, pay for services, and interact with DeFi protocols without the wild price swings characteristic of Bitcoin or Ethereum. USDT and USDC have achieved massive network effects, integrated across countless exchanges, wallets, and DeFi applications, making them the default choice for liquidity and settlement. Their success, however, inherently ties a vast swathe of the digital economy to the US dollar's fate and US monetary policy. For international users, particularly those operating primarily within the Eurozone or holding significant Euro-denominated assets or liabilities, relying solely on USD stablecoins introduces foreign exchange (FX) risk and potential conversion inefficiencies. Enter EURC: A Regulated Euro On-Chain Launched by Circle, the same regulated fintech firm behind the highly successful USDC, Euro Coin (EURC) aims to replicate the trust and utility of its dollar sibling, but pegged 1:1 to the Euro. Each EURC token is intended to be fully backed by Euros held in dedicated, segregated bank accounts under Circle's custody. This emphasis on transparency and regulatory compliance, mirroring the approach taken with USDC, is crucial for building trust, especially among institutional players wary of less transparent stablecoin issuers. The recent surge in EURC's supply to over €246 million (equivalent to ~$246 million at the time of the record, assuming near parity for simplicity, though the exact USD value fluctuates) indicates accelerating adoption. This growth isn't just passive accumulation; it suggests active minting driven by real demand. Why the Shift? Trade Uncertainty and the Allure of Diversification The primary catalyst cited for this growing interest in non-USD stablecoins is the pervasive sense of uncertainty clouding the global trade environment and the US dollar's outlook. Several factors contribute to this: 1. Geopolitical Tensions & Deglobalization Trends: Ongoing conflicts, shifting alliances, and a move towards regional trading blocs can create volatility and potentially weaken dominant currencies like the dollar as nations explore alternative payment and reserve systems. 2. US Economic Concerns: Debates around US national debt levels, inflation trajectory, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions can lead some international investors and traders to hedge against potential dollar depreciation. 3. Desire for FX Hedging: Businesses and traders operating significantly within the Eurozone may prefer a Euro-native stablecoin to minimize the costs and risks associated with constantly converting between EUR and USD stablecoins. Holding EURC directly aligns their digital cash position with their operational currency. 4. European Regulatory Clarity (MiCA): The implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation in the European Union provides a clearer framework for stablecoin issuers and users within the bloc, potentially boosting confidence in well-regulated Euro stablecoins like EURC. 5. DeFi Diversification: As the DeFi ecosystem matures, users are seeking more diverse collateral types and trading pairs. EURC allows for the creation of Euro-based liquidity pools and lending markets, catering to a specific user base and reducing systemic reliance on USD assets. Traders aren't necessarily predicting an imminent dollar collapse, but rather strategically positioning themselves to mitigate risk. Holding a portion of their stable digital assets in EURC provides a hedge – if the dollar weakens against the Euro, the value of their EURC holdings, when measured in dollars, would increase, offsetting potential losses on USD-denominated assets. Use Cases and Potential Beyond Hedging While hedging FX risk is a significant driver, the utility of EURC extends further: • Seamless Euro Transactions: Facilitates frictionless payments and settlements within the Eurozone using blockchain technology. • European DeFi Growth: Enables the development of DeFi applications tailored to the European market, offering Euro-based borrowing, lending, and yield opportunities. • Remittances: Potentially offers a more efficient channel for cross-border Euro transfers compared to traditional banking rails. • Trading Pairs: Allows exchanges to offer direct EURC trading pairs against various cryptocurrencies, simplifying the process for Euro-based traders. Challenges and the Road Ahead Despite its record supply, EURC faces hurdles. Its market capitalization and liquidity remain a fraction of USDT's and USDC's. This lower liquidity can mean higher slippage on large trades and limits its immediate utility as deep collateral in major DeFi protocols, which thrive on multi-billion dollar liquidity pools. Building the network effect – getting listed on more exchanges, integrated into more wallets, and accepted by more DeFi platforms – takes time and concerted effort. Furthermore, EURC's success is intrinsically linked to the stability and economic health of the Eurozone itself. It diversifies away from the dollar, but not away from fiat risk entirely. The regulatory landscape, while clarifying under MiCA, will continue to evolve and shape the operational environment. Conclusion: A Sign of a Maturing Market The surge in Circle's EURC supply to over $246 million is more than just a numerical milestone; it's a tangible indicator of a maturing stablecoin market seeking diversification beyond the US dollar. Driven by global trade uncertainties, geopolitical shifts, and a desire among European users and savvy traders to hedge FX risk, Euro-based stablecoins are carving out a growing niche. While the dollar-pegged giants still dominate, the ascent of well-regulated alternatives like EURC signifies a crucial step towards a potentially multi-polar stablecoin future. It underscores the demand for trusted, compliant digital representations of major world currencies, offering users greater choice and resilience in an increasingly complex global financial landscape. The journey for EURC and its Euro counterparts is still in its early stages, but the trend towards diversification is clear, promising a more varied and potentially more stable digital asset ecosystem ahead.
Long
by bryandowningqln
XRP’s Path to Dominance: A Forecasted Price Per TokenAs of March 30, 2025, XRP, the cryptocurrency powering the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) solution, is poised for a potential surge in adoption and value. With the Ripple-SEC lawsuit dropped earlier this year, a wave of bullish developments is setting the stage for XRP to challenge traditional financial systems like SWIFT. But can XRP realistically capture 5% of SWIFT’s massive $5 trillion daily transaction volume, and what could this mean for its price? Let’s dive into the factors driving XRP’s growth, including institutional adoption, tokenization, ETFs, futures trading, private ledgers, investor sentiment, and emerging trends like Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and FedNow transactions. The Dropped Ripple-SEC Lawsuit: A Game-Changer The Ripple-SEC lawsuit, which had cast a shadow over XRP since 2020, has been dismissed, removing a significant regulatory hurdle. This development has already sparked a rally, with XRP’s price climbing to around $2.50 from earlier lows, driven by renewed investor confidence. The lawsuit’s resolution clears the path for institutional adoption, particularly for ODL, which uses XRP as a bridge currency for cross-border payments, positioning it as a direct competitor to SWIFT. XRP’s 5% SWIFT Ambition: Institutional Adoption Soars SWIFT processes approximately $5 trillion in daily transactions, and capturing 5% of that—$250 billion/day—would be a monumental achievement for XRP. Recent developments suggest this goal is within reach. Japanese banks are going live on the XRPL in 2025, joining 75 major global banks adopting XRPL for cross-border payments and private ledgers. This adoption, fueled by XRPL’s low-cost, high-speed transactions and ISO 20022 compliance, could drive $150 billion/day in XRP transactions via ODL, with the remainder handled by stablecoins like RLUSD, RLGBP, RLEUR, and RLJPY. Private ledgers on XRPL, now utilized by these 75 banks, handle $50 billion/day in transactions, with XRP facilitating 30% ($15 billion/day) of settlements. This institutional embrace, combined with XRP’s energy-efficient consensus mechanism, positions it as a viable alternative to SWIFT’s traditional infrastructure. Tokenization Projects Boost XRPL’s Utility Tokenization is another key driver for XRP’s growth. Projects like Silver Scott, Aurum Equity Partners, and Zoniqx are tokenizing real-world assets—such as real estate, private equity, and debt funds—on the XRPL. These initiatives are projected to tokenize $500 billion in assets annually, with XRP used for 20% of settlement ($100 billion/year). By enabling efficient, decentralized asset management, tokenization enhances XRPL’s utility, indirectly boosting demand for XRP as the network’s native token. XRP ETFs, Futures Trading, and Investor Sentiment Later in 2025, the SEC is expected to approve 10+ XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), following the precedent set by Bitcoin and Ethereum. These ETFs will open XRP to institutional and retail investors, increasing liquidity and driving speculative demand. Additionally, XRP futures trading on platforms like Kraken will further amplify market activity, mirroring Bitcoin’s sentiment-driven rallies. With investor sentiment resembling Bitcoin’s—where global events and hype can propel prices—XRP could see a 3x–5x increase from its current $2.50, potentially reaching $7.50–$12.50 in the short term. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and FedNow The rise of CBDCs adds another layer to XRP’s potential. The European Union’s digital euro, alongside other global CBDC initiatives, could leverage XRPL’s infrastructure for cross-border settlements. Ripple is already in discussions with over 20 central banks about CBDCs, as noted in web reports, and XRPL’s ability to handle multi-currency transactions positions it as a natural fit. If the EU’s digital euro integrates with XRPL, XRP could process an additional $50 billion/day in CBDC-related transactions, further boosting its utility. Similarly, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FedNow Service, launched for instant payments, could intersect with XRPL if institutions adopt ODL for cross-border FedNow transactions. While FedNow focuses on domestic U.S. payments, its integration with XRPL for international settlements could drive another $25 billion/day in XRP transactions, enhancing its role in the global financial ecosystem. Private Ledgers: Tailored Solutions for Institutions XRPL’s support for private ledgers allows banks to customize solutions for privacy and efficiency. With 75 banks now using private ledgers, handling $50 billion/day with 30% ($15 billion/day) settled in XRP, this feature strengthens XRP’s appeal for institutional use, complementing public ledger transactions and CBDC integrations. Forecasting XRP’s Price: A Realistic Outlook Given these developments, what’s a realistic price forecast for XRP if it captures 5% of SWIFT’s volume ($250 billion/day), plus additional volume from CBDCs, FedNow, tokenization, ETFs, futures, and private ledgers? Let’s model it conservatively: Daily Transaction Value: $150 billion (ODL) + $15 billion (private ledgers) + $50 billion (CBDCs) + $25 billion (FedNow) = $240 billion/day. Annual Value: $240 billion * 365 = $87.6 trillion/year. Tokenization Contribution: $100 billion/year. Total Annual Value: $87.7 trillion/year. Market Cap Multiplier: In a conservative scenario, a 1x–2x multiplier reflects cautious adoption, competition, and XRP’s 55.5 billion supply: At 1x: Market cap = $87.7 trillion, price = ~$1,580. At 2x: Market cap = $175.4 trillion, price = ~$3,161. Adjusted for Realism: A $175.4 trillion market cap exceeds global GDP and crypto market projections. Adjusting to 0.5x (conservative, reflecting competition and supply limits): $43.85 trillion, price = ~$790. Thus, a realistic conservative forecast for XRP, factoring in all these developments, is approximately $790 per token in over the next year or two. This price reflects XRP’s growing utility, institutional adoption, and sentiment-driven growth, but it’s tempered by supply constraints, competition from SWIFT, other blockchains, and stablecoins, and the need for broader regulatory clarity outside the U.S. Conclusion XRP’s potential to capture 5% of SWIFT’s volume, combined with Japanese banks on XRPL, tokenization projects, ETF and futures approvals, private ledgers, CBDCs like the EU’s digital euro, and FedNow integrations, positions it for significant growth. However, a conservative forecast of $790 per token in the medium term is more aligned with current market dynamics and XRP’s fundamentals. While XRP’s journey is exciting, its price trajectory will depend on sustained adoption, regulatory progress, and competition in the evolving crypto landscape. Stay tuned as XRP continues to reshape global finance!
KRAKEN:XRPUSDLong
by MissouriTim
3
USDC Leads Stablecoin Market Cap Growth in 2024, Surpassing USDT The year 2024 witnessed a significant shift in the stablecoin landscape, with Circle's USD Coin (USDC) demonstrating a remarkable resurgence and outperforming its main competitor, Tether's USDT, in terms of market capitalization growth. This surge marks a significant milestone for USDC, which had faced a considerable setback in 2023 following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). This article delves into the factors contributing to USDC's impressive recovery and its implications for the broader stablecoin market. USDC's Rocky Road to Recovery USDC's journey in recent years has been a rollercoaster ride. In 2023, the stablecoin experienced a substantial downturn, with its market cap plummeting by 45%. This decline was largely attributed to the collapse of SVB, where Circle had a portion of its reserves held. The bank's failure triggered a crisis of confidence in USDC, leading to significant withdrawals and a temporary de-pegging from the US dollar. This event cast a shadow over USDC's future and raised concerns about the stability of stablecoins in general. However, USDC's performance in 2024 tells a different story. The stablecoin not only recovered from the SVB-induced slump but also surpassed USDT in market cap growth. This remarkable turnaround underscores USDC's resilience and the growing trust in its underlying mechanisms. Factors Driving USDC's Growth Several factors have contributed to USDC's impressive growth in 2024: 1. Increased Regulatory Clarity: The evolving regulatory landscape surrounding stablecoins has been crucial in USDC's resurgence. As governments worldwide are increasingly focusing on establishing clear frameworks for stablecoin operations, USDC's commitment to transparency and compliance has resonated with investors and users. This regulatory clarity has fostered a more favorable environment for USDC, attracting both institutional and retail adoption. 2. Focus on Trust and Transparency: Circle has prioritized building trust and transparency in its operations. The company regularly publishes attestations of its reserves, providing assurance to users that USDC is fully backed by traditional assets. This commitment to transparency has been instrumental in restoring confidence in USDC following the SVB crisis. 3. Expansion of Blockchain Infrastructure: The continuous development and expansion of blockchain infrastructure have also contributed to USDC's growth. As more blockchain networks integrate USDC, its utility and accessibility increase, driving adoption and market capitalization. 4. Growing Institutional Adoption: USDC has witnessed increasing adoption among institutional investors. These investors are drawn to USDC's stability, transparency, and regulatory compliance, making it a preferred choice for various use cases, including trading, lending, and payments. 5. Market Demand for Diversification: The stablecoin market has been increasingly seeking diversification beyond USDT. Concerns about the composition of Tether's reserves and its lack of transparency have led investors to explore alternative stablecoins. USDC, with its focus on transparency and regulatory compliance, has emerged as a leading beneficiary of this trend. USDC vs. USDT: A Closer Look USDC and USDT are the two dominant stablecoins in the market, but they differ significantly in their approach and underlying mechanisms. • Transparency and Audits: USDC has been lauded for its transparency, with regular audits and attestations of its reserves. In contrast, Tether has faced criticism for its lack of transparency and the composition of its reserves. • Regulatory Compliance: Circle has actively engaged with regulators and prioritized compliance, while Tether has faced regulatory scrutiny in various jurisdictions. • Market Capitalization: While USDT still holds the largest market share, USDC has been steadily closing the gap, driven by its strong growth in 2024. Implications for the Stablecoin Market USDC's surge has significant implications for the broader stablecoin market: • Increased Competition: USDC's growth has intensified competition in the stablecoin market, challenging USDT's dominance. This competition is healthy for the market, driving innovation and improving standards. • Focus on Transparency and Compliance: USDC's success has reinforced the importance of transparency and regulatory compliance in the stablecoin industry. This trend is likely to continue, with stablecoin issuers prioritizing these aspects to gain trust and adoption. • Growing Institutional Interest: The increasing institutional adoption of USDC signals a growing acceptance of stablecoins as a legitimate asset class. This trend is likely to attract more institutional investors to the stablecoin market, further driving its growth. Conclusion Circle's USDC has demonstrated a remarkable recovery and growth in 2024, outperforming Tether's USDT in market cap surge. This resurgence can be attributed to several factors, including increased regulatory clarity, a focus on trust and transparency, expansion of blockchain infrastructure, growing institutional adoption, and market demand for diversification. USDC's success has significant implications for the stablecoin market, intensifying competition, emphasizing transparency and compliance, and attracting growing institutional interest. As the stablecoin market continues to evolve, USDC is poised to play a leading role, shaping its future and driving its adoption in the broader financial ecosystem.
CRYPTOCAP:USDCLong
by bryandowningqln
CRACKS ARE FORMING IN USDT DOMINANCE! THE END IS NEAR!USDT has completely dominated the stablecoin market for a long time now, but cracks are beginning to form in its foundation that could cause the whole structure to come crashing down. People are losing trust in USDT, even though the vast majority of trading platforms use it as the sole medium of exchange on their platforms. Competitors are turning up the heat in this market, and companies like Circle (USDC), which are fully audited, as well as newcomers like Ripple's RLUSD, could pose a serious challenge to USDT if it doesn't prove its reserves through regular audits and restore investor confidence. I personally believe that USDT is a Ponzi scheme, similar to the Federal Reserve, which continuously counterfeits dollars by minting excess tokens, with nothing but faith backing them. I also believe that the time of USDT's dominance is coming to a swift end. Once RLUSD is released and available for purchase to Wall Street and Main Street, I believe that the majority of stablecoin holders will switch from USDT to RLUSD, as Ripple is one of the most transparent and reputable companies within the crypto space. I am one of these people. Good luck, and don't put all your eggs in one basket!
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by MetaShackle
TETHER (USDT) COLLAPSE IS IMMINENT! With the United States about to pass strict regulation regarding stablecoins, which includes a measure to insure "Robust transparency, audit and reporting requirements," Tether is absolutely doomed, as they have consistently refused to confirm a 1:1 peg to the USD through an independent, third-party audit, which in my book, is because they're not doing it. Something is fishy with Tether, and I would not be surprised if it has not maintained the 1:1 peg as it has claimed, but will soon be exposed as a fraud, and a ponzi scheme designed to benefit its owners at the expense of the general public. On April 9th, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) announced that: "This legislation develops two paths for stablecoin issuers. 1- The first path would be for depository institutions that would allow for both federal and state bank charter depository institutions to become stablecoin issuers after an approval process. 2- The other path would be for nondepository institutions that would give the federal government supervisory authority over the state nonbank institutions while preserving states as the primary functional regulator." This spells the end for Tether, and certain doom for any company whose business model relies upon it, such as: Exchanges, OTC desks, Trading Platforms and Wallets, Remittance Services and DEFI Platforms. You were warned! Don't get caught holding the bag!
COINBASE:USDTUSDShort
by MetaShackle
2
Crypto Regulations: How MiCA Will Affect EU TradersIn the rapidly evolving world of cryptocurrency, the European Union has taken a significant and important step forward with the introduction of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). This groundbreaking regulatory framework marks a pivotal moment for the crypto market within the EU, promising to bring much-needed clarity and stability to an industry that has long been likened to the Wild West due to its volatility and lack of standardization. The European Union is a leader in creating legislation for emerging technologies. This became clear with the introduction of GDPR, which protects internet users’ personal data, the AI Act that aims to protect citizens of the EU from malpractice, such as cognitive manipulation of people and social scoring, and now - MiCA. Paving the way forward for others, the EU is evolving its digital legislation frameworks faster than other unions or countries. This article delves into how MiCA will reshape the landscape for EU traders, impacting everything - from the way they interact with crypto assets to the broader market dynamics they navigate daily. Why do we need regulations like MiCA? If there are no regulations, markets can run wild and experience giant increases, however when the fun is over and people lose money to fraud and even large-scale bankruptcy of exchanges - investors, especially institutional ones, will not dare place their money in crypto projects and companies. And since for investors, money is trust - the cryptocurrency market is doomed without proper regulation. On the flip side, extremely stringent and disorganized legislation can lead to the same outcome. Countries struggle with the abstract nature of cryptocurrencies, and many have expressed an outright desire to ban them, seeing as it is the easier option. That is why MiCA is a well-devised framework for others to follow - It is focused and comprehensive. Some may argue that cryptocurrencies are meant to be decentralized, unregulated and follow a laissez-faire approach. While this is possible, more so for some cryptocurrencies than others, there can be no growth in these markets as new projects need to have banking and investors behind them to realize their blockchain-based ideas. It is also unrealistic to think that such a clandestine financial system will never cross paths with the regular banking system. What exactly is MiCA? The inception of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) is rooted in the European Union's recognition of the growing significance of cryptocurrencies and the associated risks in an unregulated environment. The primary catalyst for MiCA's development was the need for regulatory clarity in the burgeoning crypto market, which had been expanding rapidly without a standardized regulatory framework since the birth of Bitcoin in 2009. This lack of regulation posed risks such as fraud, market manipulation and financial instability. These concerns were heightened by incidents like the surge in initial coin offerings (ICOs), the capitulation of multiple large exchanges and the ironic instability of stable-coins. MiCA was proposed to provide a harmonized regulatory framework for crypto-assets that are not covered under existing EU financial legislation. The objective was to safeguard investors, maintain financial stability, and promote innovation within a secure and transparent environment. By introducing clear rules, MiCA aims to legitimize the crypto market, making it safer and more attractive for investors and consumers while mitigating the potential for financial crime and market manipulation. This move towards regulation reflects a global trend of governments and financial authorities worldwide striving to balance the benefits of innovation in the digital asset space with the need for consumer protection and market integrity. As such, MiCA represents a significant step by the EU in establishing a comprehensive regulatory regime for crypto-assets, setting a precedent that could influence global standards in cryptocurrency regulation. Key Points of MiCA MiCA introduces several key provisions that are set to transform the crypto-asset landscape in the European Union. The areas that are discussed and regulated the most are the areas where incidents have happened and people have lost their funds. It is important not to make the same mistakes as before. Exchanges & Brokerages One of the primary aspects of MiCA is the establishment of stringent authorization requirements for crypto-asset service providers. Under MiCA, any entity aiming to offer services related to crypto-assets, including trading, custody, or advisory services, must obtain authorization from one of the EU's national financial regulators. This process is designed to ensure that providers adhere to high standards of operational conduct, governance, and consumer protection outlined in the legislation. Crypto exchanges have gone bankrupt, been hacked or shut down abruptly in crypto’s short history. The aim of legislatures is to prevent these collapses or stop them in their tracks. Initial Public / Coin Offerings Another fundamental component of MiCA is the regulation of public offerings of crypto-assets. Companies intending to offer crypto-assets to the public are required to publish a detailed white paper. This document must provide clear, fair, and comprehensive information about the risks involved, ensuring that potential buyers are well-informed. The regulations aim to prevent misleading practices and enhance transparency in the market. Until now, many ICOs do publish white papers, however they can be purely fictional, written to trick the untrained eye into thinking the project is professionally done. Furthermore, this official process of submitting a white paper will ensure that the people behind the project are known. This will prevent people from faking their identities in order to anonymously scam their clients. Stablecoins MiCA also specifically addresses the regulation of stablecoins, which are categorized as either e-money tokens (EMTs) or asset-referenced tokens (ARTs). EMTs are stablecoins pegged to the value of a fiat currency, such as USDT, USDC and BUSD. ARTs are linked to other assets, such as WETH, WBTC. MiCA mandates that stablecoins must maintain adequate reserves and adhere to governance standards. Furthermore, there are stringent rules for stablecoins not pegged to EU currencies, including a cap on the number of transactions per day, aimed at preventing these assets from undermining the Euro. This approach to stablecoins is a response to concerns about their potential impact on financial stability and monetary policy. These concerns are justified, following the collapse of a few large market cap stable-coins during 2022. Through these provisions, MiCA aims to establish a secure and transparent environment for the trading and use of crypto-assets, ensuring that the rights of investors are protected while fostering innovation in the sector. Conclusion The introduction of MiCA by the European Union represents a watershed moment for the crypto-asset market. By establishing a harmonized regulatory framework, MiCA seeks to provide clarity, enhance market integrity, and protect investors, all while fostering an environment conducive to innovation. For EU traders, these regulations offer a more secure and transparent trading landscape, albeit with increased compliance obligations. The provisions on stablecoins, in particular, demonstrate a nuanced approach to different types of crypto-assets. As MiCA comes into full effect, its influence is expected to extend beyond the EU, potentially setting a precedent for global crypto-asset regulation. For traders and investors, staying informed and adapting to these regulatory changes will be key to navigating the evolving crypto market landscape.
Education
by sofex
USDT.DTeather dominance is used as gauge to inverse the prices of CRYPTOCAP:BTC & #altcoins. When CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D drops it is bullish for the entire crypto space and when it pumps it is bearish. Right now the downtrend is breaking below a channel that I have marked off since 2018. That means this channel has been in play 6 years. Right now the candles are breaking below the bottom TL in what I have labeled a 5 wave bearish declining sequence. The significance of this is move is important. The bottom TL has been the top of all bull markets since 2018 and we are currently breaking below that level with no real support in sight until 4% then 2%. This means that the bears have officially lost. It's game over now. Bull market is here and it looks big since this channel has been bear market support since 2018. BigMike loves you all let the party begin.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by Big_Mike716
4
Could TRON #TRX 6X v #BITCOIN TRXBTC has very good market structure (higher high's , higher lows's) for the past 3 years. Overlooked , & under-appreciated it seems like, in my view on it's sentiment on Justin's success of network adoption. We can see a clear Inverse head and shoulders with a very key neckline level that if broken with strength could a indicate a run at the LOG target. A disappointing TRX may only reach the linear target and not much beyond. My TRXUSD chart which I am watching also does point to a stellar Bull market for TRX
Long
by BallaJi
🔥 Stablecoins Breaking Out: This Time Is Different! 🚨If you've followed my analyses for a while, you've seen this chart before. This is a chart of the relative total stablecoins marketcap. In other words, the stablecoins marketcap divided by the total crypto marketcap. In my previous analyses, I stated that BTC dumped every time that the bottom support of the channel has been hit, with my most recent analysis talking about an impending dump after we hit it again in July. This was also the main reason why I was bearish during August and September. However, this time is different! For the first time since 2019, the relative stable coins marketcap has fallen through the bottom support of the channel. This is great news for crypto, since a rising value often means more bearish market conditions. With stablecoins falling, this could very well be the start of a longer-term downtrend, which is great for crypto as a whole because stables are being spent instead of being held.
CRYPTOCAP:USDTShort
by FieryTrading
9
Crypto long cycle indicatorI cannot take credit for this. I believe I saw this basic layout posted on Twitter by Will Clemente some time ago. I just re-created it myself so I could have the ability to watch in real time the larger crypto market cycles with this indicator. It is the market cap of stable coins USDC and USDT added together in parentheses (USDC+USDT) divided by total crypto market cap on trading view. It ends up looking like (USDC+USDT)/TOTAL as the ticker. You then use the logarithmic scale and draw parallel lines to hit the approximate market tops and bottoms. Well, with today's pump to above FWB:31K for BTC, it appears we're just about hitting the bottom line that indicates we're near a market top again for the crypto space for now. We're in that weird, in-between halvings timeframe, post the year-long market sell-off. I had been making the comparison to 2019's market for some time, and we just may well have seen the top of the crypto space for the year, or are very near to seeing it. I expect a slow grind down from here to the end of the year, it might start to try to rally again just before the halving, it tried to in 2020, but then the whole COVID situation caused a flash crash across all assets. If we don't have a similar catastrophe pre-halving, maybe the rally momentum early next year after a slow grind down for the remainder of this year simply follows through. Then we get the real mania bull cycle ala 2020-2021 all over again for 2024-2025. That's at least how I see this playing out. If you were smart enough to buy Bitcoin during the December lows, I'd start thinking about taking profits here and wait for it to find another decent supported low late this year/early next year if we are indeed sort-of repeating what happened in 2019.
CRYPTOCAP:USDC
by dieseldub
18
BTC-USD: MY HYPOTHESIS WHY WE ARE VERY NEAR BOTTOM!We are vey near the bottom if looking at RSI and VWAP. This pump will be only near 32,000 per BITCOIN and lets not expect more before we heavy crash to 14,000 Levels or below than 10,000 per BITCOIN. Reason is, last year to fck up by the current administration of BIDEN. Plus pre-halving retrace pump before we really enter the HALVING by 2024. FEEL FREE TO ZOOM OUT. By the way I am talking to myself. Just want to find ways to record this and not change my own hypothesis and follow this.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by osodatsismoso
12
🔥 Stablecoins Predicting Bitcoin DUMP🚨 100% Accurate Signal!If you enjoy this analysis, please give it a like and a follow. In this analysis We're going to take a look at the stablecoin marketcap, USDT and USDC to be precise. As seen on the chart, the stablecoin marketcap is trading in a well-defined bullish channel. Consequently, every single time that this metric has touched the bottom support, Bitcoin dumped. I'm aware that there's only a couple years of history, but a 3/3 hit-rate is still impressive and deserves your attention. To further strengthen the bearish narrative, BTC's volatility is currently at historical lows and the stock markets are seeing terrible results after the US downgrade from AAA to AA+. Do you think a dump is imminent? Or are we going back up? Share your thoughts below🙏
CRYPTOCAP:USDTShort
by FieryTrading
47