$RPL/USDT 4h (#Bybit) Ascending wedge on resistanceRocket Pool looks overbought on Low TF and seems likely to get rejected on local top then retrace down to 100EMA support.
⚡️⚡️ #RPL/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Short)
Leverage: Isolated (6.4X)
Amount: 5.0%
Current Price:
47.770
Entry Zone:
48.150 - 49.760
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 45.285
2) 42.830
3) 39.760
Stop Targets:
1) 52.025
Published By: @Zblaba
$RPL #RPLUSDT #RocketPool #LP #DeFi #Eth2
Risk/Reward= 1:1.2 | 1:2.0 | 1:3.0
Expected Profit= +48.0% | +80.1% | +120.2%
Possible Loss= -40.1%
Estimated Gaintime= 2 weeks
rocketpool.net
Staking
ETH - Trend-Following Setup; Again ❗️ Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per my last analysis (attached on the chart), we were looking for trend-following buy setups.
Now ETH is retesting the lower trendline again , so we will be following the same logic.
ETH has been stuck inside a range in the shape of a rising channel in orange .
Moreover, the 1800 is a minor demand zone lining up with the previous major highs.
🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the orange demand and lower orange trendline. (acting as non-horizontal support)
As per my trading style:
As ETH approaches the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
We will remain bullish , UNLESS ETH breaks below the lower orange trendline.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
ETH - Trend-Following Setup ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
After breaking above 1700, ETH has been stuck inside a range in the shape of a rising channel in orange.
Moreover, the 1700 is currently acting as a strong support zone.
🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support and lower orange trendline. (acting as non-horizontal support)
As per my trading style:
As ETH approaches the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
We will remain bullish, UNLESS ETH breaks below 1700, in this case a deeper correction till around 1550 would be expected.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
ETH - All Eyes on 1700 👀Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📌 on Daily: Left Chart
ETH is currently bullish trading inside the red rising broadening wedge pattern; and the next main resistance would be around 2000 and/or upper red trendline.
📉 Hence, as ETH approaches the 2000 zone, we will be expecting the bears to take over for a medium-term correction.
📌 on H4: Right Chart
For now, we will remain bullish as long as ETH doesn't break a previous major low.
The current last major low is around 1700
📉 If we break below 1700 expect a bearish correction to start till around 1500 - 1550 support / demand.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
LDOUSD Bearish Shark: Likely to Crash Down With EthereumLDO is at the PCZ of a Bearish Shark at the sametime ETH is at the PCZ of Bearish Bat and Both a reacting negatively to the PCZ and showing Bearish Divergence, ETH is also the most bearish looking coin on the market as can be seen in the related Ideas tab below. I think that ETH and LDO will be losing most of their value very soon while the rest of the non DeFi Centralized coins like BTC and Doge, and LTC will only take a minor hit by comparison.
Here's What I see for Bitcoin and CryptoTraders/Investors,
Everything is playing out as expected. This is good news, however, we must always proceed carefully, cautiously, and with good trade strategy. Previously, I indicated what indicators we are waiting for to enter/re-enter this latest bull move. Those indicators have occurred. Now, we must look at what could be next.
Stew
DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN FORMINGDouble Bottom Pattern is Signaling a Buy on Hydra!
The Double Bottom is also called the BIG WINNER, because it forms a W on the chart.
I expect HYDRA CHAIN (on the 1 Day Chart), to continue bullish until we reach top of the parallel channel before breaking out to resistance at $3.60+.
One Key Target area to watch as we approach the neckline & top of parallel channel @ $3.20, we must close candle above $3.20 to signal a breakout.
When this happens, we will surely have a retest of $3.60 before continuing with higher highs.
FUN FACT:
HYDRA also has a 40% Staking Incentive that is hard to pass up that will compound daily when you reinvest your staking rewards. That is 0.1% in Hydra/day & Compounded Daily. As a traded security, you have the amazing potential of having those percentages exponentially increased.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
>The double bottom looks like the letter "W". The twice-touched low is considered a support level.
>The double bottom pattern always follows a major or minor downtrend in a particular security, and signals the reversal and the beginning of a potential uptrend.
Remember to DYOR and Happy Trading!
Liquid staking: Any prospects with $LDO?This is a continuation of our previous idea :
In the first part, we dissected native staking, the current situation, and made a firm prediction about what Ethereum will face next. In this article, we will define liquid staking, examine current data and the most important liquid staking protocol, Lido, and forecast what's next for the $LDO native token.
What is liquid staking?
Liquid staking is a method of staking in which the user receives derivative tokens from the provider protocol, such as stETH from the Lido protocol, which can be used to generate additional revenue through DeFi protocols or converted to any other token via CEX or DEX.
What is $LDO?
Today, there are 9 most popular liquid staking protocols that account for ~40% of the total market. Lido is the most popular protocol (~28.9% of total staking volume and 87.5% of liquid staking volume).
LDO is a governance token. It does not entitle holders to a share of the generated yield or commissions. The token also has additional inflation. Lido constantly cooperates with different projects and provides incentive awards for pools with its tokens. 2-3 million LDO per month. But the number of allocated rewards is gradually decreasing.
Smart-money in $LDO
We should also mention the smart money that invested in $LDO tokens in the early stages. In short, all of the major funds that invested in $LDO are still holding their tokens, and many have not sold them at all. Paradigm, for example, increased the capitalization of its investment from $50 million to $130 million.
The only exceptions were Alameda Research and 3AC, which had serious issues in 2022 and required funds for liquidity and closing payment gaps.
WHAT SHOULD WE DO WITH LDO?
The capitalization of all liquid-staking protocols will increase because their product offer alleviates users' pains and makes them more agile. LDO is the locomotive of this trend; compare it to Ethereum in the Layer 1 segment. While LDO may appear to some to be outdated, there are protocols that provide better and more flexible terms to their users. However, betting on the growth of LDO is betting on the growth of the entire segment. If you want to make a lot of money, you should look for protocols that are less well-known by the general public.
Smart money believes in LDOs, but you must understand that their margin of safety is greater than that of a single trader. Always assume that your investments will be long-term.
Users trust Lido because their ecosystem has been tested in the market, their derivative token stETH has been attacked by other market participants, and the Lido team knows how to deal with it.
To summarize, a long in LDO is a bet that the liquid staking protocol segment will expand further, and you choose the market-tested protocol among others.
By the way, you can trade $LDO with us. Check the signature. Write your comments abut LDO and don't forget about risk management!
Staking and the Shanghai upgrade: What expect from Ethereum?Staking has become the primary way to earn profitability for validation and network support since Ethereum switched to a Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism. The Shanghai update, which will allow users to withdraw their staked ETH, is scheduled to be released in March 2023.
In this idea, we will look at the current state of staking and what to expect in the nearest future.
The main disadvantages of native staking are as follows:
While your Ethereum is staked, you must keep it locked up and cannot use it for anything else;
Staking is inefficient in terms of capital usage because the staking fee is only calculated on 32 locked ETH. This means that if you stake 32 ETH and grow it up to 34 ETH with rewards, the rewards will only be applied to the original 32 ETH. This renders a portion of your capital ineffective;
You cannot withdraw your ETH until the Shanghai update is released.
To address these concerns, liquid staking protocols have emerged on the market. We will go over these in details below.
According to PnL Staker Data, 66.5% of stakers are currently losing money because the price of ETH when they staked it was higher than the current price. The highest peak of staking for users at a loss occurred in the $2500-$3500 price range. Given the minimum staking size of 32 ETH, these users have suffered significant losses, and many may choose to withdraw their ineffective staked ETH to minimize or avoid these losses.
There are currently 500,000 active validators working on Ethereum, and the total staked balance is 16 million ETH (13% of the total supply of ETH), with one validator's average balance being around 34 ETH.
Some key takeaways from this information are:
Currently, there are about 1 million inefficient ETHs worth approximately $1.5 billion;
The average daily trading volume of ETH is around $6-7 billion;
The ineffective volume of ETH will take 8-10 days to withdraw. Each epoch lasts 6.4 minutes, has 256 withdrawal transactions, and we have 225 epochs per day.
So, what can we expect from Ethereum in the future? Based on current market conditions, the Federal Reserve's softer rhetoric, positive CPI data, and a negative news agenda leading up to March 2023 (when the final damages from the FTX collapse will be assessed and Mt. Gox users will receive their payments), Ethereum, like the rest of the market, is likely to experience local growth until March.
However, we are likely to see a market decline around March 10-20, which will be influenced by the Shanghai update. The 8-10 days required to restore capital efficiency for Ethereum stakeholders will put downward pressure on the price.
If the overall market is positive and investors are willing to buy, we can anticipate further growth following this period of decline. On the other hand, if the market is more negative and traders are driven by greed, we may see cascading liquidations and a new fall in the market.
Write in a comment section your opinion whether it will be a further growth or a new fall in the market and also share with us please your thoughts about our ideas. We are a fast-growing derivative exchange and we would like to share our ideas and provide society with a high-quality information to read and to talk about. So that's why we need feedback from you. Check our previous ideas and thanks for your time!
$SOL/USDT 2h (#Bybit) Bull-pennant breakout & retestSolana is pulling back to 100EMA support where a bounce would make sense, short-term.
⚡️⚡️ #SOL/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (5.0X)
Amount: 7.5%
Current Price:
13.735
Entry Targets:
1) 13.705
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 14.790
Stop Targets:
1) 12.980
Published By: @Zblaba
Risk/Reward= 1:1.5
Expected Profit= +39.58%
Possible Loss= -26.45%
KAVA Analysis and growth potential ( Fundamental + Technical )Hi friends.
Lets take a look at this incredible Altcoin and the coming upgrade KAVA 11 !
KAVA is a safe and scalable Layer 1 network and ecosystem built with the Cosmos SDK.
Kava Network announced on Twitter that Kava Liquid Staking would begin on September 8th with Kava 11.
It aims to help mainstream people see the value of DeFi by offering a trustworthy home for best-in-class DeFi services that can grow to meet global demand.
Now...
lets take a Technical view:
Like you can see in my chart we are in an important support zone.
and the price is moving in an ascending channel.we are in the bottom of this channel;'
also we are safe on the 50% retracement of the past impulsive wave and the price
Bounce from this level i think.
if the price Bounce from this level it can reach 2.30 or 2.40 targets;
however you should set your stoploss in below of this level and two recent bottoms (1.36 level)
the next target is 38.2% of recent correction that landed around 200MA (2.80 level)
Hope you have good trades.
dont forget to control your risk.
Fixed and Basic Income During Recessionary TimesThe talk of economists these days seem to be "Cash is King" (esp USD) vs "Cash is Trash". While it's true that a lot of people are liquidating their assets now in favor of dollars, given that our economies are interconnected more now than ever before, this might only last for a very short period of time.
While the market is likely to go into panic mode soon (the top-earners are finally getting a *tiny* taste of what people below them have been going through for years) it might help to take a step back and look at the bigger picture since most of the problems with the economy right now are existential, not technical.
Sort of a throwback to my #YangGang days with Andrew Yang, but UBI would have been pretty nice to have right about now. Yes, UBI does help alleviate poverty, but it also helps stabilize economies and labor markets during difficult transitions as well - that's what it was designed to do originally, and it is a brilliant idea that is literally good for *everyone*.
As stock/asset prices start to plummet, everyone is talking about moving their money to "fixed-income" sources now, to help stop the "bleeding". One of the silver linings of the recession is that there seems to be higher demand for labor, which could potentially increase wages and stabilize the economy that way - but people do need time to adjust and learn new skills to find new work. UBI does both in a simple and elegant way.
One of the big criticisms of UBI was that it would cause inflation since it would bring up the costs of everything. It's ironic to see how inflation became the talk of the town now despite the opposition coming from both sides of the political spectrum. Purchasing power is relative - the way to look at UBI from a budgeting standpoint is that you're dedicating a % of your total funds toward stabilizing the economy, which - again - should be good for everyone.
Hindsight is 20/20 and unfortunately we're now forced to work with what we did (and didn't) do thus far. Many economists - including major ones - have been eyeing cryptocurrencies as a potential "safe haven" during the market crash that's likely to continue well into 2023-24. How likely is it for people to turn to crypto during trying times?
Staking rewards are currently outperforming bank interest rates and may become more appealing over time, while crypto projects based around the concept of UBI may start to gain favor as the top-earners realize that these models are in their own interest, too. (It's a big *if*, but UBI-tokens might be the thing that ETH needs to revive its lackluster performance post-merge, imho.) Most investors are running towards cash for safety now but if that fails too, there will be no options left. That's when crypto may finally see its day - time will tell.
www.theguardian.com
ETH Merge - Risk on Market, the Role of Derivatives and ETH PoWDespite the successful ETH merge, the positioning of traders has been fairly one-way since then. Since September 15, ETH has underperformed BTC by 12.43%. This rally to the downside can’t only be attributed to the adverse macro conditions. The Merge is and has been an unequivocally bullish and risky event for Ethereum. If the merge had failed, it would have been catastrophic for the ETH price and the crypto ecosystem in general.
Normally, a headline like the Merge would have driven the Market completely risk-on, however, risk was already on. On August 23 ETH/BTC was trading at 0.075 and topped 0.0856 (+14%) on September 7. At the merge snapshot, ETH/BTC was trading at 0.08099 (+7.9%). At the time of writing, its trading at 0.0688 (-12.43%).
Interestingly enough, Delta-one traders were trying to get the most out of this event and in this case, they bet on the ETH Proof of Work coin airdrop, in the case that there was a Hard Fork of the Ethereum Blockchain.
Derivatives traders entered long positions on spot ETH, and hedged the market exposure via Futures. In normal market conditions, the Basis spread and the funding spread between ETH and BTC tends to zero.
While a positive (negative) spread is typically a signal of bullish (bearish) market.
As the possibility of having an ETH PoW token materialized, the funding spread between the two pairs became wider and wider, and reached -394.2% annualized in the hour prior the merge.
Hedging 1 ETH via a Perpetual Future on FTX for the 24h prior the merge costed $12.18 (or 0.7585% ETH). In the 4 hours following the creation of the ETH PoW market on FTX, the coin was trading at an average of $22.98, that is 88.73% profit excluding fees.
FTX was one of the first exchanges to both credit the airdrop and to support trading of ETH PoW. All the market participants who had their Ethereum outside FTX did not receive the token at that time, nor had the possibility to sell it on margin and cover the position at a later date. Indeed, since the airdrop, ETH PoW flow has been skewed to the sell side and it is now trading at $6.167.
Now I expect that Basis and Funding spread will find a new equilibrium that will be close to the ETH PoS staking rewards, thus a minus 4-7% annualized spread between the two pairs is reasonable.
For ETH PoW I don’t see a long future as most of the Developers, Protocols and Community are not supporting it anymore.
Happy Trading!
Matteo Bottacini and the Crypto Finance Trading Desk
The Proof-of-Stake Era is Here. Can ETH Survive the Winter?After Ethereum's "merge" this week, the crypto market continues to sag as a whole, unimpressed. One pattern we see emerging is that coins that have been proof-of-stake since the very beginning (especially ATOM and ALGO this week) have been performing very well relative to the rest of the market. (Coins to keep an eye on in the near future: XTZ, ADA, TRON, MATIC, etc.) As we head further into the recession we're going to start to see some of these patterns get more aggressive.
The reason why this is happening should be pretty obvious at this point: people's attentions are switching over to proof-of-stake, and the coins that offer competitive staking rewards (aka interest rates) are starting to attract new customers. Flipping NFTs is too confusing to most people but most people can tell when one rate is higher than another. (Especially since most banks are still stuck in 0-interest rate savings mode at the moment.)
The crypto community has largely been down on Ethereum lately as the realization that they've fallen behind the curve starts to settle in. But they're certainly not out of the race yet - the roadmap to make ETH competitive in the proof-of-stake race is pretty clear:
1) Make staking liquid - the fact that it's locked up for an indefinite period of time is pretty ridiculous, possibly illegal. (Probably in their own interest to do so quickly before it turns into a lawsuit, tbh.) As it stands now ETH's staking rewards are too cumbersome and not competitive enough for people to consider.
2) Adopting on-chain governance would make skeptics feel at ease and would quell some of the criticisms coming from the Bitcoin maxis too. The real problem is transparency, not centralization.
3) Fix the issues with scaling to bring gas fees down, finally. They can probably consult people from other chains who have already figured it out. (If they can get over themselves, that is, lol.)
They definitely have the resources to do so - that was never in question. Whether they're actually gonna do it, though, that's another story. I didn't exit completely but as a disclaimer I did sell off a pretty big portion of my ETH holdings this year because of concerns over its long-term prospects. Ethereum may be well on its way to becoming Bitcoin 2.0, given that it's now become a deflationary asset.
If you're an ETH holder you'll probably be OK since they'll probably continue to burn their supply to make sure that the price doesn't go down too much. Silicon Valley is known for their appeasement of the investor class and we're likely to see the same pattern play out again. But keep in mind that each coin burned just makes it harder for new people to come in - what they've done is basically put an expiration date on their own project since they're actively restricting the platform's growth now. (Crypto NIMBYism, as I like to call it.)
Coin supply is a controversial topic in the industry but can be understood in a fairly straight-forward way: The higher the supply, the better it is for newcomers; the lower the supply, the better it is for existing holders. Maxis will repeat whatever marketing slogans they were fed but at the end of the day, it's about who's back you're willing to scratch. Getting returns on your investment requires you to see things as they are and read between the lines of what's being said - are they using that wealth to make genuine improvements on the protocol itself, or are they just hoarding it and promoting the scarcity model behind your backs?
More coin supply to attract new talent/investors? Sure, good idea in theory. Just not here - "Not In My Back Yard". NIMBYism is a thing you see in the real-estate markets, and we start to see its ugly head rear in the crypto space, too.
I do owe a lot to ETH - it stabilized my finances, paid off my student loans, and gave me the time to do the things I wanted to do, rather than had to do. But it's probably time for me to move on - I'm here for the dream, not just the money. 🔥
The Market Has Spoken - "Liquid Staking" is the FutureFollowing this week's inflation report and the much-anticipated "The Merge" on Ethereum's ecosystem, the crypto markets took a massive dip - in particular, ETH itself. This is the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern as the hype towards the merge date neared, then the massive-selloff right after.
But not all coins were in the red - COSMOS (ATOM) did very well this week, and showed a very strong decoupling pattern from the rest of the pack. Why? Because they currently offer the best staking rewards (15%+!) out there, beating both the banks and its competitors by a very large margin. If you wanted to sell ETH but stay in crypto, it was the most obvious option to go with, at least on paper.
ETH2 has the problem of being illiquid (there is no set date for when you can withdraw your funds), as well as expensive - which will likely lead to the coin struggling over the long-term as coins that offer low-fee liquid staking (ADA, XTZ, DOT, MATIC, AVAX, etc.) has had a much longer time. ETH2 "final form" isn't likely to happen any time soon (some say as long as 6 years) so they are currently behind the curve of industry standards, not ahead. Whether they can catch up to the rest is yet to be seen.
Now that ETH has de-coupled itself from proof-of-work, we're going to start to see public attention towards different aspects of Web3 and DeFi - and staking rewards is likely to be the talk of the town, especially as we go further into the recession.
Merge to the Splurge - Inflation and Inflated ExpectationsLots of things happening in finance today. US inflation is at 8.3% (higher than expected with no end in sight), which tanked both crypto and the stock market at the same time. Goes to show that there's still a lot of overlap between the two right now.
Also coming up is the much anticipated "merge" on Ethereum (going to happen some time this week, according to Vitalik), which will finally migrate their chain from proof-of-work over to proof-of-stake. As interest rates start to get hiked further, crypto coins will likely need some sort of staking mechanism to survive - or at least offer some kind of utility beyond marketing hype. Some things to keep in mind:
- The "merge" is not likely to affect ETH's gas prices, since that comes later during the "sharding" phase. Until then, most dApps created on the ETH ecosystem will still largely sit idle/abandoned.
- During recessions, cash is king - and the coins that resemble that the most (projects that are used as currency, rather than speculation) is likely to perform better overall. That means coins that leaned into the "store-of-value" idea (and have oversaturated mind-share) may be in big trouble - which includes Bitcoin, as well.
- Many Web3 "fintech" startups (including some very big ones) operated under the assumption that BTC/ETH was going to go up forever - some already made headlines this year as they imploded on itself after the downturn, but we're likely to see more of them pop up as we get further into the winter as a whole.
- Coins that offer substantial staking rewards (Tezos, Algorand, Cosmos, Solana, TRON, etc.) are outperforming the banks right now by a very large margin, and may be a good position to grow as the banks continue to drag their feet. Holders of coins that were reliant on the "perpetual growth" model in order to offer staking rewards will likely see their rates shrink over time. (If they're desperate enough, it may even go negative. 😨)
- ETH2 coins are, by default, "locked up" for an indeterminate length of time - lots of people signed up to be validators during the December launch in 21' but the legality of it will likely be in question. As the market dips further, many will want to liquidate and there will be more pressure put on the ETH team to do so. (If not, a few class-action suits may be in the pipeline.)
- What happens to the miners after the "merge"? Up until now, ETH was by far, the most reliable and profitable coin to mine, but that will go away, overnight. Some competitors are trying to use the opportunity to fracture the ETH community by offering their own places to mine, but longer-term, PoW's real value lies in their ability to allocate their processing power to "useful" mining. (e.g. Gridcoin, Golem, etc.) We may start to see a shift in favor of those types of projects after miners start to do more research on their own.
Long story short, the projects that were reliant on perpetual fundraising are likely to be out - replaced by projects that have revenue/profits and greater sustainability. The crypto winter may be brutal for some, but the silver lining is that we may finally get to see a crypto ecosystem that prizes utility and sustainability over short-term hype. It's going to be a crazy time either way - good luck, folks.
During Recessions, Cash is King - Where Does Crypto Fit In?During recessionary economies, the money-classes that take the biggest hits are usually assets - stocks, real-estate, speculative assets, which, yes, also includes NFTs. As they say, during tough times, "cash is king". As we get deeper into it, we're going to see a big shift in the way people use and talk about their money.
For crypto investors out there (or anyone in general who wants to prepare themselves for the new era that's about to unfold) the things to keep in mind are:
- Asset ownership tends to skew upwards in the income bracket, which means that there will be lots of doom-and-gloom narratives coming from the top. For most people a "market crash" will be a good thing (better than getting priced out by inflation, anyway), and the result will be that the top earners will have slightly less money in relation to the bottom, evening the "playing field" so to speak.
Take everything you read with a grain of salt, either way.
- Cryptocurrencies are in an interesting position where they're able to function both as assets AND cash - even legally, the definition of where the technology lies in regards to the two is still unclear. But we see that some coins tend to "lean" towards one end of the spectrum more than the other. Bitcoin is largely classified as an asset ("store-of-value"), Ethereum is the former trying to move towards the latter (the "merge", "sharding"), though the fate of the latter is still unclear.
Dogecoin, on the other hand, may actually see a bump in interest due to the fact that it's currently treated more as cash than an asset. (The chain also has plans on moving towards Proof-of-Stake, though the timeline is still unclear.) If cash is king, the loveable Shiba Inu mascot may, in fact, be the one to dethrone King Bitcoin sitting at the top.
- The strategy for most investors during recessionary times will switch from "beating" inflation to "keeping up" with inflation - inflation will naturally drop as interest rates rise, eventually reaching an equilibrium. This presents an opportunity for coins that offer reliable staking rewards since they're currently beating the banks by a very large margin right now. (Some banks are still stuck at 0, for the record.) The average person is likely to benefit from this transition in the long run in the form of cheaper goods. (Especially for essentials, which are obviously out of control right now.)
- The 0 interest rate decade-long experiment in the US economy is about to come to an end, having peaked during the COVID era where money-printing and cheap loans became at an all-time-high. (Some would describe it as the "apocalypse economy", but that's for another discussion altogether.) Many "Web3" startups of last year were part of that cash grab, and will likely run out of runway in 2023-24. (If you're having second thoughts about the "investments" you made last year, the time to get out would probably be now, in other words.)
- As interest rates rise, it will get exponentially harder to raise money, even for Web3 projects. CEOs and founders will be chosen for their ability to generate revenue and turn a profit, rather than their marketing and fundraising skills. (The current crop of "thought leaders" we see in public today are a result of the low-interest "casino economy" we had over this past decade.) We're likely going to see a dramatic shift in the way people talk about startups in general, cryptocurrency projects included.
- Higher interest rates will encourage people to save rather than spend, which will also change the focus of the types of products and services that companies and startups start to offer to the general public. The economy having been in overconsumption mode for so long, this will be a big adjustment for most people out there.
--
Long story short, there will still be ways to "come out ahead" even during recessions, but the benefits will be more complex than seeing the numbers in your bank account simply going up. It's more that you're losing less money relative to everything else, which, in turn, increases your purchasing power overall. (If you're making the same money but rent gets cut in half, for example, you're still "winning".)
I still do believe that in the long run the recession will be a good thing for most people, and that the economy will come out stronger after the dust eventually settles. The path to getting there, though, will be a rough one no matter how you put it. Good luck folks. 🤞