WILL S&P500 FALL OR RISE? Watch how price opens today - If price cannot penetrate resistance (as circled), we will see further downside.
GOOD LUCK. DON'T BLOW YOUR ACCOUNT. THIS ISN'T A RACE. THIS IS A SURVIVAL GAME.
Standardandpoor500
S&P500 Short for good!Upon first glance, we can see that there's a Crab pattern @2887
The blue trend line is about to be tested. I would wait for the retest to be confirmed then I will start selling the Crab out of it.
As well, the Pink rectangle is a very important zone which is being respected.
TP1. @2724
TP2. @2618
TP3. @2450
SPX SHORT ?It already bounced +30% from the low.
The situation is still bad, people still in lockdown.
A retracement from here is the most optimal for the market if we are still bullish.
An overextention of this pump could end in a major crash in the future.
A NEW IDEA ON LEVERAGED INVERSE ETF SQQQSQQQ goes up when the market goes down . Since this is a leveraged ETF, the position size is one-third of your normal position. The recommended position size is up to 7% of full core position size, but reduce it based on your own risk preference.
This is suitable only for super aggressive experienced investors because the risk of loss is high but rewards are also high.
This is a short term trade. The buy zone is $19 to $20.27. it is trading at $20.27 as of this writing. Stop zone is $17.11 to $18.23. The first target zone is $24 to $25.68. The second target zone is $27 to $32.
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200,000 Deaths
Dr. Fauci says there may be 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths due to coronavirus.
The stock market is discounting (assuming) less than 25,000 deaths.
The 80% probability of the 'mother of support' zones holding that we have been sharing with you is based on the model at The Arora Report that is assuming 100,000 - 150,000 deaths.
Trump Relents
Trump has relented on opening the country by Easter. He has extended social distancing to April 30.
Science May Triumph
At one time futures were down 4%. A lot of buying is coming in on potential good news on the science front.
We all want coronavirus to end. It is the government’s job to spin the reality to keep the morale of the country up. It is the prudent investor’s job to discern the truth. Science may triumph and cause the stock market to bottom.
Where Is The Bottom?
The mother of support zones has 80% probability of holding – this along with RSI should be the main reference points to look for a bottom. There is simply too much optimism in the stock market and in many cases investors are buying without doing research. Here are a few examples:
- Abbott Laboratories (ABT) has come up with a coronavirus test that takes five minutes. The revenues from coronavirus test will dwarf against the revenues Abbott is likely to lose due to issues related to coronavirus. Investors are running up the stock.
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is making great progress on a coronavirus vaccine. Johnson & Johnson is likely to sell the vaccine at cost. This will have no material increase in earnings yet investors are running up the stock.
- General Motors (GM) will make ventilators. General Motors is selling them at cost. Again this will have no impact on earnings yet investors have run up the stock on the news.
- Medtronic (MDT) makes ventilators but ventilators are a very small portion of its business. At the same time, Medtronic is suffering because its sales are likely to drop due to postponement of none essential surgeries. Without understanding the whole picture investors have run up the stock.
The foregoing shows that there is simply too much optimism and investors are buying without doing research. In my over 30 years, I have never seen a bottom when investors behave this way.
Recession called for SAD and POOR companies 500I called sad and poor 500 companies to correct in June 2019,
at first it seems too good to be true and now it became a reality!
Check my previous post!
Use TA to predict the future!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SP500 ultra longterm view: Where are we headed?Here is the yearly chart of the SP500. This is now really ultra longterm. But in order to find out what would happen in the case of a
recession, it is really useful to look at such long timeframes.
We see that in the past, the middle yearly Bollinger Band always provided support. Even in the insane crash of 29 and the following recession, it went
briefly below the middle Bband, but bounced back, and oscillated around the Bband for over 10 years. In 2008 it also went below the Bband briefly, but
bounced back again, the middle Bband again providing good support.
This time, the same will probably happen. We might see a dip down as low as 1300, in the extreme case, stabilizing around 1500-1700, and then a period of recession
for around 2 years. Then afterwards resuming of the bullmarket.
This is of course only valid should we really now get into a recession. If suddenly by some miracle the virus crisis is over faster than we think, then of course
also the stockmarket will improve quite fast again, and this will end up being more like the 1987 crash, where we had a quite fast recovery, and not like 2008.
We have to wait and see how the global situation will develop now globally.
S&P500: Should cross the 1D MA200 to avoid a new Low.Despite this week's rebound on Friday's 2,855 low (a level which was the 1W Support also made by the October 3rd 2019 low), S&P failed to break the 1D MA200 so far with the 1D chart remaining under pressure (RSI = 38.384, MACD = -75.790, ADX = 49.730). That is despite the fact that the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut yesterday, with the index pulling back within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci zone.
The current price action is similar so far to the late 2018 sell-off. The price failed to cross the 1D MA200 on three occasions and a Death Cross (MA50 crossing below the MA200) was formed that led to the December 2018 low.
It becomes obvious that SPX should break above the 1D MA200 in order to avoid a similar death spiral as investors will surely lose confidence that even traditional saving mechanisms like rate cuts are unable to provide relief on the stock market.
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Stocks will bounce HEREAccording to my lunar cycle algorithm we will be bouncing here. The scare is over. Buy stocks.
S&P: Testing the 3-month low. Long term Buy opportunity.Both short and long term targets have been hit on SPX as shown on the following charts:
At the moment we are focusing on the longer term timeframes and on 1D in particular (which is oversold almost with RSI = 27.611, MACD = -19.380, ADX = 32.416, Highs/Lows = -170.9777). Our point of interest is the long term Channel Up that S&P500 has been trading on since the start of 2019.
Right now we see that the index is testing the 3,070 Support which was created by the December 3rd low (this is also the Higher Low of the Channel Up). This is a 3 month Support Zone and last time a 3-month Support Zone was tested inside this Channel Up, it held and initiated a rebound to a new High. That was in June 2019 as you see on the chart. Notice also how the RSI patterns are identical and in fact the RSI is on the 27.500 August 2019 Support.
This is the most optimal buy opportunity for us on the long term. Our Target Zone is 3,400 - 3,450.
See how accurate SPX long term levels are, and in particular this long term Channel Up in determining accurate buy/ sell entries:
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SPX: Attention needed. -6% possible if this condition is met.S&P has been trading inside a 4H Channel Up (RSI = 50.132, MACD = 13.590, ADX = 48.232) with the 4H MA50 (blue line) supporting. The negative fundamentals (China virus, disappointing earnings) ahead of the Fed Interest Rate Decision this Wednesday, can make investors sell initially (and ask questions later).
There is a strong break out level to consider and that is the 3,230 Support. Even if the Channel Up breaks lower, if that Support level holds, then the uptrend can be extended. If however 3,230 breaks, then selling make escalate to a -6.80% drop, similar to the one in July 31st - August 5th 2019. The RSI pattern has certain top making similarities.
If that condition is met, then we will set a downside Target Zone of 3,130 - 3,110.
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SP 500 - Big Sale 13.01.2020Friends, please before reading, support this idea with your Like and any Comment, thanks.
You can take short sale SP 500 from 3275-3300
Stop-loss 3400
You will find more trading ideas in SAV Finance community.
Good luck!
S&P 500 - MOMSTRAT INDICATORHere is another chart with my marco indicator for the S&P 500 which shows tremendous upside potential and helps steer clear of selling or buying over extensions beyond standard deviation. Please also check out the indicator for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average & Bitcoin charts.
S&P 500: Santa Claus RallyHello everybody!
PrimeXBT is here again with another technical analysis breakdown, and today we are taking a look at Standard and Poor's 500 Index.
News and Fundamental Analysis:
While the Asian markets are currently subdued, Wall Street is caught within a firm and unwavering uptrend.
The S&P 500 hit a sixth consecutive high on Thursday — its longest streak since January 2018 — and it closed at a record high along with the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones.
On the other hand, investors still do not understand what is included in the “Phase 1” of the trade agreement between China and the United States.
Overall, this is a worrying sign that the US economy may be slowing down again at a time when the Fed has stopped its monetary policy softening.
It should be noted that such signals act as a leading indicator of business cycles, and therefore market players usually pay close attention to them, but not now.
Technical Analysis:
Currently, SPX is hitting strong resistance that’s coming from 1.618% Fibonacci — which is a resistance level.
The price action combined with the Relative Strength Index is staying strong, but BTC has formed a bearish divergence, which often indicates that a trend reversal is forming from bullish to bearish, and a downtrend or valuation adjustment could soon follow.
Such price action was seen in May of 2015 .
Once the price reaches the resistance level, a rejection could cause a fall to 1.272% Fibonacci which is our support level.
Support level: 3100
Resistance level: 3300
Day's range: 3192.3 — 3205.5
Be careful though, don't forget about capital & risk management.
Keep an eye out for more PrimeXBT trading signals for SPX and other assets.
S&P500: Attention. 4H Death Cross emerging.SPX is currently on the wrong foot again as last week's quick recovery on the impressive Nonfarm Payrolls is proving to be too unstable. The index is well within the multi month 1W Channel Up (RSI = 64.964, MACD = 69.900, Highs/Lows = 55.7180) but as it trades on the Higher High trend line, a medium term pull back for a Higher Low is technically justified.
The first Signal on this could be the emerging Death Cross formation on 4H. When then very same pattern was formed (August 5th and May 13th) during the two previous Higher Highs of the multi month Channel Up, S&P was either on the new Higher Low (bottom) or halfway to it. It is obvious then that traders position themselves before this formation takes place and currently it is emerging.
Each decline was roughly -8%, so we've set a Target Zone of 2,910 - 2,950.
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S&P500 Sell SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1W.
Signal: Bearish as the pattern is close to its Higher High.
Target: 3040 (just above the 3030 1D Support and where it is expected to make contact with the 1D MA50).
This Channel Up has been working great for me so far giving me the following accurate signals:
SPY EOY ForecastI think a leg to the 320 area or back down to the 303 area on the SPY are likely. Personally I have a bias towards the 320 side as we approach the anticipated completion of the US/China trade deal. Whether we actually get the deal or not is a coin flip in my opinion but I do expect the market to continue rising in anticipation. If it falls through then we will very likely see 303 and possibly lower and if we get confirmation of a deal (and it's a good one) we will likely print 320 and beyond in early 2020.
S&P 500 Short term shortit seems that SPX is topping out for short term and may be long term. i love to play a short right now as i putted the position on the chart. additionally we have bearish divergence in the 15m chart. i used the gap for my target it gives me a great Reward to risk ratio of 4.26 which is perfect for tarde.
SPY: Bear-SignalA bear-signal will be confirmed once SPY closes the week below line 'A' . Once 'B' is taken out, we'll see lows of 275, and trade sideways for a while. It looks like a further decline starting early next Year, but we'll address that when we get there.
(trend lines averaged with step-line on linear)
