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Standardandpoor500

S&P500: First 4H Death Cross since August 14th 2023!S&P500 has formed today a Death Cross on the 4H timeframe after 8 months (August 14th 2023), turning bearish on the 1D technical outlook as well (RSI = 37.122, MACD = -81.00, ADX = 53.782) as yesterday it crossed under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 3rd 2023. Both are technically very bearish developments and according to the last 4H Death Cross, we remain bearish until we complete at least a -5.87% decline (TP = 4,980). Observe how the symmetry among the two fractals is very strong, both the Death Cross and the 1D MA50 breakout were done around the same Fibonacci levels. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500 Channel Down Top Sell Signal.The S&P500 index is trading inside a Channel Down. Every break over the MA50 (4h) forms its Lower High and is a sell signal. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price as it is over the MA50 (4h). Targets: 1. 5125 (expected contact with the MA50 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is on a Rising Support, which is a Bullish Divergence in contrast with the Channel Down Lower Highs. This potentially indicates that after the MA50 test, the index may resume the long term bullish trend.. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
1
S&P500: Bearish reversal to the 1D MA100.The S&P500 remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.356, MACD = 47.470, ADX = 36.597) but today is having so far the strongest bearish 1D candle since December 15th 2022. Having hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up at the start of the week, this can be a technical correction to at least the 1D MA100 if the 1D MA50 breaks. Consequently we have a short term TP = 4,980. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500 hit the top of 24 month Channel giving a sell signal.The S&P500 index / US500 hit the top of the Channel Up that started in August 2022. If the 1week RSU crosses under its MA trend line, we will have a sell confirmation, much like July 31st 2023 and February 20th 2023. The minimum decline has been -6.06%. Another one of this magnitude, conveniently tests the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up and more importantly the 1day MA100 (happened on all corrections). Sell and target 4970. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TheCryptagon
S&P500: Sell opportunity on the 4H timeframe.The S&P500 is highly overbought on the 1W technical outlook (RSI = 77.490, MACD = 202.930, ADX = 73.429) and hasn't provided the slightest correction under the key 1D MA50 trendline since November 3rd 2023. In spite of that, the index can keep rising without providing such a correction, let alone enable us to time it. Its structure of this nonstop rise since January 31st is the Channel Up you see on this chart. We are on the 4H timeframe which filters out the overbought technical indicators on the higher timeframes and is the only chart capable of trading with a high success rate at the moment. As you can see, the strongest signal inside this pattern has been a Buy when the 4H MACD makes a Bullish Cross and a Sell when it makes a Bearish Cross. At the moment it is after a Bearish Cross, so the short term trend is a Sell. All recent pullbacks have hit at least the 1D MA50 and the latest one even the 1D MA100 on the lower magnitude so far of -1.58%. Consequently, we are targeting the 1D MA100 on -1.58% from the top (TP = 5,180). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500 Top formed on the 19 month Channel Up. Correction to 4950The S&P500 index hit yesterday the top of the 19 month Channel Up. That was the first time since it started trading. This is a strong sell signal and considering that the MA50 (1d) has been intact since the November 3rd 2023 bullish break out, we expect to cross under it now. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 4950 (-6.00%, 0.618 Fib and Support A). Tips: 1. The RSI (1w) is posting the same sequence just under the Rising Resistance that it did during the July 27th 2023 High. An additional sell signal. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
1
The market is climbing a wall of worriesYesterday’s financial print in the United States revealed an uptick in inflation. For the second month of 2024, the inflation rate rose by 0.4% MoM (accelerating 0.1% from January 2024) and 3.2% YoY (accelerating 0.1% from January 2024). Meanwhile, the core inflation rose by 0.4% MoM (staying unchanged) and 3.8% YoY (showing a decrease of 0.1% versus the previous print). Considering the sticky inflation numbers, it appears very unlikely the FED will decide to cut interest rates next week during its two-day FOMC meeting. Furthermore, this problem raises questions over how fast the FED will actually proceed with easing monetary policy in the future; at the moment, it seems improbable the FED will lower interest rates before June 2024. On a technical note, the bullish trend continues to lose momentum, and the SPX hovers overextended above the upward-sloping channel. On the daily time frame, the Stochastic oscillates in the overbought area, and MACD flattens. In addition to that, the RSI is forming a structure resembling a symmetrical triangle. Overall, the picture remains bullish, but the odds of a correction grow as the market climbs a wall of worry. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the daily chart of the RSI, which has been forming a structure resembling a symmetrical triangle. A breakout to the upside will bolster a bullish case in the short term, while a breakout to the downside will strengthen a bearish case in the short term. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the VIX’s daily chart. So far, the lower trendline has not been broken (not distorting the structure of higher peaks and higher troughs). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish (losing momentum) Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
4
S&P500 This is the end of the 5 month Bullish Leg.S&P500 / US500 is approaching the top of a Fibonacci Channel Up that goes back all the way to August 2022. The 1day MA50 has been in firm support since November 3rd 2023 but as the 1day RSI is squeezed inside a Triangle pattern, a break out is inevitable. This is technically more likely to be to the downside due to this overbought multi month momentum near the top of the Channel. Sell and target 4950 (Support A, 0.382 Channel Fib and -6.00% from the top). Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TheCryptagon
2
SPX has formed an island reversal patternYesterday, the SPX formed an opening gap and erased some of its recent gains, which was accompanied by nearly a 10% jump in the VIX. What is particularly interesting about this is the formation of the island reversal pattern on the daily chart. The formation of this topping pattern and simultaneous rise in the VIX after a period of strong gains in the U.S. equity markets alerts us. However, calling the market top and subsequent breakdown would be too premature. To support a thesis about a trend reversal, we would like to see a further fall in the RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart and a continuation of the rise in the VIX. Contrarily, to support a case for bullish continuation, we would like to see a breakdown in the VIX (ideally below the lower trendline shown in Illustration 1.02) and mentioned technicals reverse back to the upside. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the island reversal pattern on the SPX’s daily chart. Yellow arrows indicate opening gaps and the island. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of VIX, which bounced off the lower trendline. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish (losing momentum) Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
6
S&P500: Sell opportunity for at least 1 month.S&P500 is bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 61.459, MACD = 50.390, ADX = 31.702) but the RSI has turned sideways for a long time which is the same pattern that led to the July 27th 2023 High. The index has had three major corrections inside the long term Channel Up, ranging from -8.16% to -10.64%. We expect the index to decline by at least -8.00% in the next 1 month and approach the 1D MA200 (TP = 4,750), which is intact since November 2nd 2023. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
S&P-500 E-Mini: Full Fibonacci SchematicsThis is a completely full and completed schematic of CME's E-mini S&P 500 Contract. This contract started in 1997 so there are decades of data not accounted for on the real chart. However, these are just as viable and important as the Standard & Poors 500 Indice. Let us take a look at the separate (chronological) boxes and understand what they are... #1 is VERY IMPORTANT as this has the first pair of Fib Spikes for ES1 which are the red and white lines coming across the chart. ALSO, we see an extension from the COVID low ( YELLOW ) and this extension exactly determined the high at 4800 and the approximate bottom. #1 and #3 also have two up schematics in RED originating from the local low from 3500. These are VERY IMPORTANT SCHEMATICS IN 1 and 3. #2 and #4 are the first two pairs of Fibonacci Extensions for ES1. In both, we have fib forks. In #4 there are 2 of the forks. ( yellow and white ) #3, #5, #6, and #7 are the start of the next structured schematic. #3 contains the second set of fib forks for ES1. 5, 6, and 7 are all from the same structure but have completely different schematics. #7 Contains a very important schematic of Fib Forks stemming from the inception of ES1. (YELLOW) #8 is a formation from the COVID lows of 2020. We see the third set of Fib Spikes/Forks on ES1 here and also a Fib Schematic too. One piece of the schematic is in #1 in YELLOW and is a very important extension. It belongs in #8 but I have it in #1 because it has shown its utility.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MichaelBsul
3
Markets are reaching extreme greed territoryOptimism surrounding earnings last week helped to push the market higher. As a result, the SPX established a new all-time high above $5,100, and the VIX faltered below $14. Subsequently, it did not take long for Wallstreet analysts to upgrade their price targets for various companies, including the one with the most hype around it, NVIDIA. Some of these forecasts go as high as $1,400, which would value NVIDIA at nearly $4 trillion (more than Apple). However, as the Fear and Greed Index is reaching extreme greed territory and people are getting drunk from profits, it might be time for a reality check. Since the start of 2024, many large companies have begun another wave of layoffs. Here is the list of just some of them: Amazon - laying off several hundred employees (the exact number is not known) Cisco - laying off 5% of its workforce Discord - laying off 10% of its staff Duolingo - laying off 10% of its workforce eBay - laying off 9% of its workforce Microsoft - laying off some 1,900 people (about 8% of the workforce in gaming) PayPal - laying off 9% of its workforce Snap - laying off 10% of its workforce Rivian - laying off 10% of its workforce Unity - laying off 25% of its workforce Twitch - laying off 35% of its staff On top of these massive layoffs, there are also many corporate downgrades in forward guidance and an ongoing problem with sticky inflation, with the next print due on 8th March 2024. If new data confirms no improvement, it will likely cause fear to creep back into the market and weakness in stocks. With that said, we are proceeding very carefully in the current environment. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows VIX's daily chart. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the parabolic chart of NVIDIA, which is reminiscent of many past charts that reached bubble territory and then popped. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
16
S&P500: 1W MACD about to make a Bearish Cross. Huge sell signal.The S&P500 is on the second straight bearish 1W candle and if the week closes this way, it will be the first series of red 1W candles since the October 23rd 2023 bottom. The 1D timeframe has already turned neutral (RSI = 51.449, MACD = 32.820, ADX = 32.340) after a prolonged period inside the overbought territory, so we can claim that a medium term correction has started. A 1W MACD Bearish Cross will confirm it, as it has been the single most major long term sell signal in the past 1.5 years. The last 1W MACD Bearish Cross was formed after the August 14th 2023 1W candle and the then declined by -8.58% initially to reach the 1W MA50 and then completed a -10.90% decline to form a HL at the bottom of the Channel Up. -8.00% and -9.00% corrections have been common on MACD Bearish Crosses. In any case, this indicates that the S&P500 can drop to 4,650 (-8.00%) in order for the market to see if the 1W MA50 can hold as a long term Support after an incredible 4 month rally. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500: Last pump before a correction.S&P500 is on healthy bullish technicals both on the 4H (RSI = 63.806, MACD = 7.990, ADX = 31.789) as well as the 1D (RSI = 64.592) timeframes as it keeps rising inside a six week Channel Up. According to the last HH wave we are expecting a top on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. If that's coupled with the 4H RSI hitting the top of its Rectangle, we will short the market at that level and target the Channel's bottom and the S1 level (TP = 4,920). As long as the 4H MA200 holds, it will be a buy entry. If crossed, then the bullish pattern is negated and we will short again, aiming for the S3 level (TP = 4,715) and a potential contact with the 1D MA100. It will be almost a -8.00% correction, a healthy pullback on the 1D scale. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
3
Nice runThe SP has had a nice bull run the past 5 weeks. Now is hitting an important psychological and technical resistance at 500. It might try to break it on the upcoming days but I think it's going to pull back hard soon. I'm already taking profits I have cash sitting there until new opportunities come. I still have some long positions but I'm mostly in cash. Also I'm long in the Dollar on short term. Looks strong, I'm shorting AUD/USD and GBP/USD. Don't be greedy, be smart and patient.
AMEX:SPY
by ArturoL
A low volatility tends to precede high volatilityThe major U.S. stock market indices are trading in the negative territory ahead of the release of inflation data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A hotter-than-expected print is likely to produce a pop in volatility and convince central bankers in Washington to keep monetary conditions tight during the upcoming meeting in March. Consequently, we pay close attention to the VIX index, which has been testing the resistance at $14.49 since the start of the year. In addition to that, we watch a concerning relationship between the declining volume and the increasing price. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows a concerning relationship between the rising price and the declining volume. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily graph of the VIX. The yellow arrow indicates yesterday’s opening gap. One notable thing about the VIX is that it has been trading below $15.50 for 92 trading sessions. To find a similar low-volatility period, one would have to go back to late 2017/early 2018 (shortly before the massive spike in volatility and market selloff). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
3
S&P500: Channel Up topped. Correction possible.S&P500 is only a few points away from hitting the HL trendline of the long term Channel Up (started on the October 13 2022 Low). That would be the second time to test the patterns absolute Top. The 1D technical outlook is on standard bullish levels (RSI = 67.767, MACD = 49.570, ADX = 38.770) but the 1D RSI in particular has formed the very same pattern it did during the July 2022, January 2023 and December 2022 Channel Up Highs. Consequently we have all the technical evidence we need for a 1 month at least short. The first Support is the 1D MA50 but in order to keep the long term uptrend on sustainable levels, it would be better to approach the 1D MA200. We expect the pullback to almost hit the 1D MA200 and touch at least the 0.382 Fibonacci of the Channel (TP = 4,600). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
While China eases, it's still too early for the U.S. After testing $4,900 yesterday, the SPX retreated slightly lower. Currently, it trades near $4,870, and we keep monitoring the resistance at $4,900 and support at $4,800. We are also paying close attention to the RSI, which broke above 70 points on the daily graph; the invalidation of the breakout will raise a slight concern, and the same will apply to the spike in the VIX. Besides all these things, we will keep an eye on the Chinese markets, which saw a ban on short-selling being imposed last week and which failed to halt the crashing market. That prompted regulators to announce new stimulus measures and cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points (effective from 5th February 2024). Due to these major changes, we have changed our stance on the Chinese equity markets and are no longer bearish. However, it is still yet to see whether these measures will have a lasting effect (remember, plenty of other measures were implemented in the past few years, failing to halt the multi-year decline). Despite all this optimism and similar expectations among investors for the easing in the U.S., we remain highly cautious (and skeptical that the FED will cut rates in the next two meetings). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the SPX’s RSI. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above 70 points. Illustration 1.02 The image above displays three major Chinese indices on the daily time frame. It can be observed that volume began to quickly increase alongside equities following the announcement of the boost to the economy. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
S&P500: Last rally before correction.S&P500 may be overbought on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 72.835, MACD = 15.590, ADX = 49.520) but not yet on the 1D technical outlook as the price hasn't yet made a HH on the two month Channel Up. The 4H RSI does show us though that it is starting that HH peak sequence as it can start a LH trendline like December 14th. We are expecting this wave to peak on a +5.55% rise at 4,920 like the Higher High of December 27th, where we will short and target the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 4H MA200 (TP = 4,800) like the index did on the January 5th HL. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
S&P500: Top officially formed. Eyes 4,500S&P500 has turned neutral on the 1D technica outlook (RSI = 47.788, MACD = 28.200, ADX = 43.854) as it made a LL for the first time since the October 27th 2023 bottom, marking the end of that two month rally. That was the latest bullish wave of the 15 month Channel Up. According to the three prior peaks that formed HH on the Channel Up, the index should kickstart a pullback that should cross under the 1D MA50 and may extend as low as -9.00% even. The RSI Channel Down patterns among all those bearish waves look very much alike. Consequently we will stay bearish and set a less aggressive target over the 1D MA200 (TP = 4,500). See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
$SPY top at $472-474 and to bottom below $300If you've been following my ideas over the last few weeks, you'll know that I have a macro bearish view going into next year. I think the market is setup to drop 30-40%+. I know everyone is calling for new highs (Tom Lee, looking at you), but it's not going to happen IMO. We're not in a bull market, this is still just a bullish bounce within a bear trend. I'm not sure what the fundamental catalyst will be that will bring markets down so much... it's hard to ever know before it happens, but there will be something in Q1 that will be very negative for markets. However, until then, I think we have a little bit more upside in SPY as I shared in this analysis (short term view). Essentially, I think we have one more move higher to about $472-$474 and then I think we'll top and start moving lower. I've taken short term calls to express this view w/ expiration 12/29, and after some of the names I bought hit their target, I will start buying long term puts with expirations out to 3/18 and 6/21 2024. Let's see if this plays out over the coming weeks.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
8
Selling might not be done yet, what to watch out forRecently, we discussed how overbought conditions in the stock market were making a case for correction. Now, with the major market indices retreating slightly lower, we are looking for more clues about where the market might be headed next. To support a thesis about the SPX going lower, we would like to see RSI, MACD, and Stochastic continue declining on the daily graph. In addition to that, we would like to see the SPX break below Support 1 near $4,697 and further rise in the VIX. Contrarily, to support the bullish odds, we would like to see the SPX hold above Support 1 and a reversal in the mentioned technical indicators, along with the drop in the VIX. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX within the upward-sloping channel and two simple moving averages. Interestingly, the value of the 20-day SMA closely coincides with that of Support 1; a failure of the moving average to hold selling pressure will tilt the odds to the bearish side. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
S&P500 About to turn bearish for the next 2 weeks.S&P500 crossed and closed a (4h) candle today under the MA50 (4h) for the first time since December 7th. Even though that was a buy opportunity then, this time we expect strong selling as the two month Channel Up is on a very strong RSI (4h) Bearish Divergence. Trading Plan: 1. Sell once the price crosses under the Channel Up. Targets: 1. 4560 (MA50 1d and Support 2). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is also almost oversold besides showing this Bearish Divergence. Once it gets oversold and bounces, it can give an ideal sell entry near the MA50 (4h). Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView