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Standardandpoor500

S&P500: Balance sheet extends drop.Will interest rate peak soon?The S&P500 has been declining for more than two months straight reaching the HL trendline from the market bottom. It is useful to look into the Fed's role on this whole long term price action and what better timeframe to use than the 1W. As you can see, the Fed's Balance Sheet (orange) is extending a long term decline that started more than one year ago, while the Interest Rate (teal) continues to rise. You don't need to go back any further than the 2018-2019 period, which was marked by the extensive trade wars between the U.S. and China. The key to recovery was when the Interes Rate peaked and flatlined. That was when the stock market bottomed and growth stability returned to the markets. The recent (almost) two year inflation crisis has the market in an even more advantageous position as it's been one year since it recovered and priced the bottom, despite the fact that the Interest Rate is still rising. Theoretically when the Interest Rate peaks and turns flat, we should see a more stable stock market growth. With the S&P500 on a HL support and the Balance sheet still dropping, do you think the Fed will pull the trigger and soon announce in one of their next meetings an end to rate hikes? ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPX
by InvestingScope
3
S&P500 Do or die moment for the bullish trend.The S&P500 / US500 is approaching the 1day MA200 (intact since March 24th) and its 1day RSI just become oversold for the first time since September 27th 2022 (exactly 1 year ago!). That time was the begining of the Bear Cycle's bottom formation. Additionally, we are at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern that started after the September 2022 bottom, so it is easy to understand that it is now or never if the bullish trend is to be sustained. Buy on the current market price and target 4820, which is the All Time High of January 2022 and slightly under the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (targeted on prior rally). This approach is negated if the price closes a 1day candle under the MA200. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
5
Stock market crash looming over?Last week, the FED meeting resulted in no rate hike. However, Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to fight inflation, with dot plots showing the possibility of one more rate hike this year and interest rates staying elevated for at least another two years. That is no surprise to us as we have been warning for months about interest rates going higher and staying there. In addition to that, since late last year, we have been warning about the most deceitful bear market rally in cryptocurrencies and stocks as well. Since then, we have seen a very uneven recovery, with the major indices like SPX and Nasdaq being propelled higher by a handful of companies while Russell and small caps were staying far behind in the recovery process. Furthermore, earlier this year, a big case was made out of the Chinese reopening of the economy after the Covid-19 pandemic. Back then, we remarked how much would depend on the performance of the Chinese economy and that its slowdown could inadvertently endanger the U.S. stock market and bring recession to the West. Then, in August 2023, we issued another warning about the Chinese stock market rolling over, signaling trouble for the U.S. markets. Fast forward to today, and we have seen a failure of the Chinese indices to advance higher despite attempts by regulators to calm down the market, and in the U.S., personal savings declined, credit use soared and inflation reaccelerated. Furthermore, commercial bank deposits resumed a decline, and delinquencies on credit card loans started to soar rapidly. As for the narrative in the media, the widely accepted opinion is still that the U.S. economy is headed for a soft landing. But, we remain very skeptical about the FED’s ability to deliver one. In our view, many signs point to the more harsh scenario, with the environment increasingly favoring a significant market selloff. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the chart of the delinquency rate on credit card loans, which doubled in the last year and a half. Illustration 1.02 The picture above displays the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout, which marked a new low for the index since 27th July 2023. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
29
S&P500 Crazy as it may seem, we may see 9000 by the end of 2026!S&P500 / US100 is having a strong correction these past two months (August-September). However on the wider scales such as the 1week time frame this is only a minor technical correction. It is near forming a 1week MA50-100 Bullish Cross. Last time it formed this pattern was in September 2016 and the index never broke under either MA level. It went on to peak near the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. Similar peak (Fib 3.0) and Channel Up leading to it (of course we can't count the COVID crash into it) on the December 2021 top. The RSI pattern between now and 2016 is similar as well. Based on the above and crazy as it may sound, it is a technical possibility to see the Channel Up that started in late 2022, extend into the end of 2026 and price a top near 9,000. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:SPX
by TheCryptagon
1
S&P Could find support here Following a notable correction, the S&P index may find support at its current level, particularly if the lower boundary of the green box at 4,350 holds. In the event of a successful hold, we could potentially witness a rally towards the initial target of 4,410. Subsequently, after a consolidation phase, a further move towards a level around 4,440 could be in the cards. However, it's crucial to be aware that should the support within the green box fail, we may witness a decline towards the 4,300 mark.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RF_Trading
S&P500: Near the bottom. Recovery should start early October.S&P500 is trading on a descending channel, on a very bearish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.220, MACD = -31.420, ADX = 38.889). The 1D RSI is on the same level as the August 17th bottom of this Channel Down. This decline is approaching a Triple Support Band: the 1D MA200 and the 1W MA50 which are headed directly for the bottom of the Channel Up that started exactly a year ago. We expect the bottom to be formed inside these two weeks and early next month to see the first signs of recovery. A Cup recovery pattern has been the common mode of rise these past 12 months, so we set a R1 target (TP = 4,600) for mid to end of November. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
4
S&P500 Confirmed sell as it crossed the MA100 (1d).The S&P500 index crossed today under the MA100 (1d) for the first time since March 28th. Since October 2022, the pattern is a Channel Up and the current decline since the July 27th top still has room to fall before it hits the pattern's bottom. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 4250 (bottom of the Channel Up and potential contact with the MA200 (1d)). Tips: 1. The bottom's of the long term Channel Up have beem formed when the RSI (1d) completed Lower Lows near or under the 30.00 level. Be ready to book the profit if you see a rebound after the RSI makes a Lower Low. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
SPX, Major H-S-Formation To Crucial Reversal!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about the SPX and the daily timeframe perspectives. In recent times many indices within the market already showed up with precarious pullbacks in the structure that should not be underestimated so also the SPX. As when looking at my chart we can watch there how the Index is forming this major decisive head-shoulder-formation with the left shoulder and the head already completed. Now as the right shoulder develops in the structure this is a likely setup for the completion of this whole formation which will happen when the SPX finally breaks down below the neckline as it is shown in my chart. Such a setup will be the finalization of the whole head-shoulder-formation and the SPX is likely to follow up with a bearish continuation till reaching out to the 4.380 zone from where the situation needs to be elevated again. If the SPX in this case does not hold this level and do not shows up with a reversal in the structure the possibility of a continuation-setup increases in which the SPX will form a bear-flag or similar continuation formation. If this completes a continuation will move on within the bearish-continuation-zone marked in my chart in red. Currently we should not keep these determinations from the desk and be prepared on upcoming volatilities, it will be an important journey ahead. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, it will be great when you support it with a like, follow and comment for more upcoming market analysis, all the best! "The high destiny of the market is to explicate, rather than to speculate." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
SP:SPX
by VincePrince
7
S&P500: Channel Down bottom and HL Support cluster. Buy?S&P500 hit today the HL trendline from the August 18th Low, while approaching the bottom of the Channel Down pattern. Despite this short term weakness, the 1D timeframe remains on neutral technicals (RSI = 46.932, MACD = 8.582, ADX = 32.119). This indicates that it may be an opportunity for sideways trading until we see a clear long term trend. Consequently, we are buyers on this level, expecting a rebound to the top of the Channel Down and the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 4,490). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1
S&P 500, Ascending-Wedge-Formation, Crucial Determination!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about the SPX 500 index and the 2-hour timeframe perspective. In recent times the index moved into a crucial determination as it is already overbought on the higher timeframes I also detected this main formation here that is likely to indicate a decisive reversal in this whole structure. Therefore as when looking at my chart, we can watch there how the Index is building this main ascending-wedge-formation marked with the boundaries in black and the coherent wave-count within. In the ascending-wedge the Index has already completed the waves A to C and is now about to complete the wave-D on which the wave-E follows up, when this wave-E has been completed in the upper resistance-cluster marked in red this will be the setup for this whole wedge-formation to complete which will happen with a pullback and when the Index then finally marked below the lower boundary of the wedge it will be the origin for further bearish continuations to the downside and appointing of the lower target zone between the 4525 and 4540 zones, once this has been reached it has to be elevated if the S&P 500 manages to reverse in the structure or just sets up for further continuations to the downside. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, it will be great when you support it with a like, follow and comment for more upcoming market analysis, all the best! "The high destiny of the market is to explicate, rather than to speculate." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
SP:SPX
by VincePrince
15
The relief fizzles outThis week, we saw SPX move slightly lower. In addition to that, VIX gapped up on Tuesday and continued to move higher without filling the gap. Meanwhile, the relief fizzled out in China, leading to a rollover in the stock market indices like CSI 300 and Hang Seng. Considering American and Chinese markets are highly intertwined, we raise a word of caution over more weakness in the U.S. market. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. The yellow arrow indicates an opening gap on Tuesday. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of CSI 300. The yellow arrow indicates the initial spike after the regulator’s intervention in the market about two weeks ago. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
24
S&P500: Last chance to hold this level and rise.S&P500 has turned neutral on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 46.008, MACD = 1.700, ADX = 33.340) after today's 1D candle crossed under the 1D MA50. To make matters worse, the 1D MACD is reversing and if the price doesn't rise, it will form the first Bearish Cross on such low level since June 10th 2022. On the brightside, the 0.382 Fibonacci level is still holding, and if it continues to close candle over it, this correction will turn out to be just a minor pullback similar to January 19th. So until the bearish conditions emerge, we will be bullish, targeting the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 4,670). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
3
China's relief stagnates. Before the turnaround in SPX in July 2023, we pointed out to the roll over in the Chinese stock market and its implications for the U.S. market. Then more recently, we saw how these markets continue to be intertwined when Chinese regulator stepped in and calmed down the market, resulting in both American and Chinese stocks enjoying a relief (or perhaps even reversing). However, in the past three days, we started to notice that the momentum began to decrease in the Chinese indices. Therefore, we think it would be proper to wait a little bit more time before committing to the bullish outlook. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of MACD, which hovers just slightly below the midpoint. If it breaks above this level, it will bolster the bullish case in the short term. However, the failure will be strongly bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of the Hang Seng Index. The yellow arrows indicates the past three days, with each having a lower low than the prior one. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 displays the daily chart of CSI 300. The yellow arrow highlights the initial spike in CSI 300 after the regulator’s intervention. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
13
S&P500:US Economic Indicators Reflect Growing Concerns Amidst...US Economic Indicators Reflect Growing Concerns Amidst Ongoing Challenges As economic indicators unfold, the US economy grapples with a myriad of challenges, leaving forex traders and market participants in a state of heightened uncertainty. The week ahead presents a series of key data releases that shed light on the current economic landscape. The latest predictions for the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 19th point to a figure of 240K, with Continuing Claims for the week ending August 12th anticipated at 1,708K. This comes after Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week were reported at 239K, and Continuing Claims for the week before at 1,716K. These figures provide insights into the ongoing dynamics of the job market, highlighting the impact of the economic challenges faced in recent weeks. A significant concern is reflected in the forecast for US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for July, which are expected to plummet by 4.0% on a monthly basis. Additionally, Durables Excluding Transportation are predicted to rise by a modest 0.2% monthly. This is in stark contrast to the strong performance observed in June, where Durable Goods Orders surged by 4.7% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation rose by 0.6%. Furthermore, Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for July are anticipated to inch up by only 0.1%, following a slightly stronger 0.2% increase in June. The energy sector also remains in focus, with US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending August 18th expected to stand at 33B cubic feet. This comes after a previous report indicated inventories of 35B cubic feet for the week ending August 11th. These indicators collectively paint a picture of an economy grappling with challenges on multiple fronts. The US economy has been plagued by disappointing data, coupled with consumer debt levels reaching record highs. Sticky core inflation and positive surprises from other countries only add to the complexity. The US Federal Reserve has acknowledged the possibility of higher rates, even if a pause wouldn't indicate a reversal. Amidst this backdrop, the threat of stagflation looms large, a possibility that the markets may be underestimating. As the forecast for the SP500 remains cautiously bearish, with consideration of the 38.2% Fibonacci levels, dynamic trendline, and support area, traders and investors find themselves at a critical juncture. Despite recent upward movement, the presence of these technical factors suggests the potential for a rebound in the nexts session, implying that the current phase might be a retracement rather than a complete reversal. The overall sentiment points toward ongoing challenges in the US equity markets, with potential implications for the foreseeable future. ✅ Please share your thoughts on S&P500 in the section below. Don't Forget to LIKE this Idea and FOLLOW me !
SP:SPX
by FOREXN1
9
VIX is not dropping yet, more panic is possibleSince our last update, the SPX has largely remained below the resistance near $4,527. Concurrently, the VIX has not shown a notable decrease, hinting at the possibility of more market panic and weakness in the SPX. That, combined with the fact that Chinese stocks continue to roll over, leaves us on high alert, and we are growing increasingly bearish in the short term. To bolster the bearish odds, we want to see the SPX break below the support near $4,458. Furthermore, we would like to see another spike in VIX. Contrarily, to support a bullish thesis, we would like to see SPX move above the resistance at $4,527 and hold there (ideally, being accompanied by a drop in VIX below $14.30). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
13
FED's rate hike looms overToday's focal point rests on the Federal Reserve's (FED) highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which is widely expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points. This decision would mark the 11th rate hike since inflation started to go rampant in the United States as a result of unprecedented quantitative easing following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, when the FED decided to nearly double its balance sheet in a matter of months, causing inflation to spike above 9% in June 2022. However, the consistent efforts of central bankers to fight inflation have brought down the inflation rate to merely 3% last month. That is a huge improvement, which puts the latest inflation print only 1% away from the FED’s desired target of 2%. Therefore, now is an unlikely time for the FED to stop and risk losing credibility in front of the entire world. Consequently, that will unleash more pressure on the U.S. economy, which has shown signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector for most of 2023 (only in April 2023, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI printed above 50 points). As a result, the chances of something snapping in the economy will continue to grow. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of VIX, which can be seen making higher lows since 22nd June 2023. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
3
SPX eyes $4,600. But can it make there?Yesterday, after the market close, International Business Machines, Netflix, and Tesla unveiled their earnings for the second quarter of 2023. Investors did not take this news positively, and shares of all three companies slumped in response. Today, in the pre-market, Netflix is down more than 8%, Tesla more than 4%, and IBM approximately 1%. More U.S. corporations are scheduled to report their earnings today, including Abbott Laboratories, Johnson & Johnson, and Philip Morris. In addition to that, today, we can anticipate crucial economic data, including updates on initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index. In regard to technical indicators, RSI traveled into the overbought territory on the daily chart while MACD and Stochastic continued to develop bullish structures. The price deviated too far from the 20-day SMA, which makes a case for a slight pullback before SPX continues higher. We will update our thoughts as the earnings season progresses further. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX and RSI. Yellow arrows indicate the first divergence between the price and RSI. Now, we will watch whether RSI can overtake its peak on 15th June 2023. If RSI crosses below 70 points, it will be bearish. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
10
USA S&P 500 (US500) Index Analysis 05/01/2022Fundamental Analysis: As we can see the Index has shown a very strong come back after the Covid-19 pandemic of March 2021 which caused the market to fall and create a panic to the world. Since then there are lots of changes to the world and the way companies are operating, such as releasing of their premises and offices as they should have discharge lots of their employees and the work from home schemes was the main reason to cut the expenditure of these companies drastically down. From the other hand, the market administration and governments including Banks has injected lots of funds and so called Rescue Packages and the market stimulant's packages to protect the Market from its Hard and Drastically fall to the lower levels and prevent a gigantic Global Markets Crises. These funds and injection of the cash to these companies along side of cost deduction due to their risk measurement policies, forced these companies to invest the receiving funds in to the companies assets to protect themselves from the Pandemic Crises and hedged their exposed risks instead of investing these funds to the new Projects or renovations which could Couse their Share prices to appreciate intrinsically but instead these investments in the assets made an inflation to the prices of the assets and created a bobble in their share value and Prices without having any inheritance or intrinsic values. so we can easily have a decision derived from the current situation that there has to be an other market fall and crises soon so the Price and its relevant intrinsic values get converged and market comes to its correct values. we can observe the same situation in many different centralized markets such as Dow Jones and even other Stock Exchanges around the world like London and rest European market places to be in the same inflated status. there exist a huge chance of an other Global Market Crises coming soon which has the domino effect and Couse the entire markets to fall for some times . This fall of the market shall remove off the liquidity from the equity and debt market and streamflow them to some green heaven Asset classes including Gold and silver or even newly invented Technologies such as decentralized markets and Cryptocurrencies and DeFi. if we have a look at the Current crypto's Total Crypto Market Capitalization we can see it has a very good chances of Rally Continuation to some very high levels such as 5 to 6 Trillion dollars or even much higher. Gold even can see higher Prices such as 2500 USD per ounce which is currently ranging at 1800 USD. we even can some how speculate a 3 world War to be the initiator of this Market fall which is even not so far from the reality as the situation in middle east is not very stable due to the Iran and Israel disputes and new anti-covid's restriction social movements in Europe and America continent. we shall analyze few other markets and indices and ultimately Propose some Assets which are at their low Points Currently and can be counted as under values at present times. Technical Analysis: we have used the Fibonacci retracement and Expansion from the low to the Highest point before the Covid pandemic to have a better vision of the Higher expansion levels for the post retracement's rallies and identify the Potential Price levels and resistance zones. where the market can show some stagnation and starts its retracement and price correction to the lower levels. There exist a Bearish Divergence of Price and MACD where Price has made higher high levels but MACD made lower Highs which is the most significant and strong Bullish Trend Reversal and start of Market fall and Price retracement and Value corrections. there are total of 3 Targets defined which have a very strong Support tendencies which can be interpreted as the maximum retracements points. there are few Resistance levels are also defined to have a better vision incase of Current Rally Continuation which eventually can be counted as the Trend reversal points
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by BitonGroup
S&P500: Small pullback will provide the new buy entry.S&P500 reached the top of the four month Channel Up, remaining on heavily overbought technical indicators on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 75.225, MACD = 61.680, ADX = 45.310). As the 1D RSI is close to hitting the HH trendline that goes as back as November 2022, we expect a pullback, at least on the short term inside the Channel Up, first to drop the overbought indicators back to a balanced stated and secondly to form a HL on the Channel Up. We are opening a sell on closing, aiming at a -2.60% (TP = 4,460) pull back which was the decline of the last correction. That will be a low risk buy opportunity (as long as the 1D MA50 holds) to target R1 (TP = 4,640). If the candle closes under the 1D MA50 and S1, we will short and target the 1D MA200 on S3 (TP = 4,165), a potential correction that will neutralize finally the overbought 1D RSI. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
4
S&P500: Targeting 4,570 but may take a while.S&P500 made a new yearly High today after the U.S. CPI report and solidified the 1D bullish technicals (RSI = 66.131, MACD = 48.400, ADX = 25.681). The MACD indicator if it makes a bearish cross, it will form a similar pattern to the start of May where it turned the index into a 2 week consolidation before making a new High. We will wait for a pullback near the 1D MA100 before buying or will make a breakout buy if the price crosses over the R1. In either occassion, we will target near the top of the four month Channel Up (TP = 4,570). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
2