S&P500: Targeting 4,570 but may take a while.S&P500 made a new yearly High today after the U.S. CPI report and solidified the 1D bullish technicals (RSI = 66.131, MACD = 48.400, ADX = 25.681). The MACD indicator if it makes a bearish cross, it will form a similar pattern to the start of May where it turned the index into a 2 week consolidation before making a new High.
We will wait for a pullback near the 1D MA100 before buying or will make a breakout buy if the price crosses over the R1. In either occassion, we will target near the top of the four month Channel Up (TP = 4,570).
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Standardandpoor500
Double-top on SPX?The previous week was filled with numerous data disclosures that provided deeper insights into the U.S. economy. Most notably, we saw the first month-over-month decline of the S&P Global Services PMI in 2023 (negatively affecting the S&P Global Composite PMI), a continuation of contraction in the manufacturing sector, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate (from 3.7% in May 2023 to 3.6% in June 2023). Overall, the data has not proved recessionary yet. But with services slowing down, it would be appropriate to stay cautious and wait for more data to reveal underlying trends in the economy.
In our opinion, the current valuations for stocks seem overstretched (especially in the tech sector), and the replacement of fear and calls for a recession by the narrative dismissive of any danger to the U.S. economy could lead to a volatile concoction in the stock market. As a result, we are monitoring multiple technical indicators on a daily time frame, including RSI, MACD, and Stochastic. All three of these indicators show divergence with the price and point to the downside, which is not particularly bullish. In addition to that, SPX appears to be forming a double top, giving rise to an interesting setup if the pattern becomes valid.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the mentioned setup. The bearish trigger becomes activated once the price breaks below Support 1.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows nearly the perfect harmony between the decline from January 2022 until October 2022 and the rise from October 2022 until July 2022.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish (with signs of weakness)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500 Will attempt to find Support near the 1day MA50S&P500 is so far on a flat 1day candle after a series of 3 red.
That keeps the price inside a Channel Up since March 13th and of course inside the longer term Channel Up since the October 13th market bottom.
The index should seek support on the 1day MA50 as it has done since March 30th, so that's a short term sell opportunity to 4330.
Consequently that will be the new Higher Low (bottom) on the Rising Support of the narrow Channel Up, hence a buy opportunity targeting Resistance A at 4500.
If the 1day candle gets closed under the 1day MA50 though, sell and target the bottom of the wide Channel Up and the 1day MA200 at 4150.
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Lots of data coming, questions over unemployment and servicesThis week, a barrage of U.S. data releases will help to shape investor sentiment. ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI are on today's schedule. Factory orders, FOMC minutes, and API crude oil stock change will follow on Wednesday. Then, on Thursday, imports, exports, ADP employment change, initial jobless claims, S&P Global Composite PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Services Employment, ISM Services PMI, and JOLTs job openings will be in focus. Finally, on Friday, average hourly earnings, non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and participation rate will be revealed (remember, we named only the most important data releases and not all that are scheduled for this week).
As the unemployment rate rose from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.7% in May 2023, we are interested to see whether there was further growth in the metric. If yes, that will be a negative sign for the U.S. economy. The same will apply if there is any weakness in the services sector, which has been (so far) holding fairly strong compared to manufacturing. However, if the data will come in as expected (or better), it will likely provide more lift for the market. We will update our thoughts after today’s release.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX, two simple moving averages, and horizontal support/resistance levels. If SPX manages to hold above Resistance 1, it will be bullish. But if it fails, it will raise our concern about the rally’s breakdown.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the unemployment rate in the United States since September 1998.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500: One last pull back is possible before a new High.The S&P500 is pulling back following yesterday's July 4th holiday and seems to have reached a temporary top similar to May 1st. That was nearly a 1 month consolidation phase, which after testing the 1D MA50, it initiated the new bullish phase. Technically that was also the Higher Low of the four month Channel Up pattern.
The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 67.005, MACD = 54.870, ADX = 30.096) and as long as they do, buying is favored. We expect this short term correction to test the S1 (4,330) and then rebound, which we will buy, to the R1 (TP = 4,500), which was the April 21st 2022 High.
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S&P500 Holding the 4hour MA50 is criticalS&P500 / US500 crossed back over the 4hour MA50 and so far today is holding it.
For this level to stay as Support is critical as a 4hour candle close under it can delay the uptrend and send it to the 4hour MA200, 1day MA50 near the Rising Support.
In that case sell and target 4300.
As long as the 4hour MA50 holds, be bullish and target Resistance A at 4500.
The 4hour MACD is on a Bullish Cross, favoring a buy.
Previous chart:
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S&P500: First buy conditions following the top are emerging.The S&P500 is close to a -2.89% pull back, same as the April 26th, with the 1D technicals turning neutral (RSI = 56.566, MACD = 43.450, ADX = 27.595) for the first time since June 1st. This is a standard technical pull back inside the March Channel Up that is aiming at the bottom of the Channel and the 1D MA50, which is untouched since May 4th.
We will use both 4,330 and 4,270 for a double buy entry, targeting the R1 (TP = 4,500). Pay attention also at how the 1D RSI is on the HL trendline since March, an additional buy signal.
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S&P500 Buy opportunity approachingThe S&P500 crossed under the MA50 (4h) and is approaching the bottom of the 1 month Channel Up.
That would complete a -2.60% decline from the top, which is consistent with the pull backs of late April and May.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy at 4340.
Targets:
1. 4515 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) gives the most optimal buy entry when it crosses under the 30.00 oversold level. If that happens near the bottom of the Channel Up, it will be an additional reason to buy.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
S&P500 On the 4hour MA50. Sell if this breaks.S&P500 / US500 almost touched today the 4hour MA50 for the first time since June 1st.
This is a Support and as long as it holds (along with the Channel Up), buy and target Resistance A at 4500.
If the price crosses under the Channel Up, sell and target the 1day MA50 at 4235.
If the 4hour RSI makes a Bullish Cross before 4235 gets hit, then book the profit on the short earlier and switch to buying again.
Previous chart:
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S&P500 RSI overbought but can give one last pushThe S&P500 is extending the rally inside the long term Channel Up.
The MA50 (1d) has been supporting and is untested since March 30th.
Such a strong rally undeniably created an overbought RSI (1d).
Last time the index gave a similar RSI pattern (August 10th 2022), the price gave a few more days of upside and one last push before a correction.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price and as long as the RSI (1d) remains above its MA level.
Targets:
1. 4515 (Resistance 1 and April 21st 2022 top, near the top of the long term Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) technically gives a signal that the uptrend is coming to a stop and a correction is starting, when it crosses under its MA level. Use this to your advantage in order to book the profit earlier if needed.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
S&P500 extending the Channel Up to 4390.The S&P500 index / US500 is extending the uptrend after crossing today over the 4330 Resistance of August 16th 2022.
The May Channel Up pattern may be transitioning to a more aggressive June Channel Up pattern supported by the 4hour MA50.
Our long term target is still a +8.90% rise from the last bottom on March 13th but are slightly downgrading it to 4390.
The 4hour RSI is also inside a Channel Up, with the current rise being similar to May 24th/28th.
Previous chart:
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S&P500 The August 2022 is the Resistance but the index can peak The S&P500 / SPX / US500 is extending the rise inside the long term Channel Up, supported by the 1day MA50.
As long as the 1day MA50 supports, we will stay bullish with the 4330 August 16th 2022 posing as the next Resistance.
Every rally inside the Channel Up however has been at least +9.50% so we expect a peak on the Channel Up top at 4400 if the August 2022 top breaks.
If a candle closes under the 1day MA50, seel and target 4030 (bottom of the Channel Up).
Previous chart:
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S&P500 Near the top on two patterns. Pull back possible.S&P500 is testing Resistance (1) on the Channel Up inside the larger Megaphone pattern. Currently it is at the top on two separate patterns.
The MA50 (1d) is supporting the Channel Up and the MA200 (1d) the Megaphone.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy on Support (1).
3. Sell under Support (2).
Targets:
1. 4175 (Support 1).
2. 4300 (top of Channel Up).
3. 4000 (bottom of Megaphone and near MA200 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) Highs (70.00) and Lows (30.00) match perfectly the Tops and Bottoms of the Channel Up. Use this to your advantage. RSI values of 70.00 are to be sold while values of 30.00 to be bought, as long as the Channel Up holds.
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Past trading plan:
Bearish thesis is being put to the testWhile we have to admit that the U.S. economy is proving to be more resilient than we initially expected, we can not ignore that the market is going through a very uneven recovery. It is no myth that SPX and NDX have been propelled by a handful of companies related mainly to the hype in the AI sector (including Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia). However, when these companies are excluded from the calculation of the index, SPX’s year-to-date performance is actually negative.
As only about 40% of the stocks within the index are above the 200-day SMA, we can make a compelling case that more companies might join the rally, which could lead to more broad recovery and completely invalidate our thesis about the bear market rally. Due to that, we will pay close attention to this metric and focus on the incoming data, including Chicago PMI, JOLTs job openings, ISM Manufacturing PMI, initial jobless claims, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate. To support our thesis about the bear market rally, we would like to see an uptick in unemployment and signs of contraction in services (which is crucial because, so far, we have seen a contraction only in manufacturing). In addition to that, we would like to see further weakness in the Chinese stock market and economy (because, as we previously noted, if China is not doing well, then the West is likely not to do well).
In regard to the price action, we pay close attention to the critical level near $4,200. If SPX fails to hold above this level, it might signal exhaustion and potential short-term/medium-term trend reversal. Contrarily, if SPX holds above the resistance and more stocks start climbing above the 200-day SMA, it will be a positive sign, potentially suggesting more upside ahead.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily chart of SPX minus Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia; when these six companies are excluded from the index, SPX’s year-to-date performance is actually negative at approximately -8%.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the percentage of SPX stocks above the 200-day SMA.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bullish breakout from the narrow rangeA few days ago, we introduced a setup with a bearish trigger coming after the breakout below the narrow range between $4,050 and $4,200. Despite that, the market decided to go in the opposite direction and broke to the upside. This development is bullish for the short term, and because of that, we will pay close attention to the index’s ability to hold above this level. We would like to see SPX close above $4,200 in at least two following trading sessions to support the continuation upwards. Contrarily, if the price closes below the level, it will indicate exhaustion; in the case that SPX falls below $4,200 and then breaks back above it, the count will reset.
As for the outlook beyond the short term, it remains unchanged (bearish). We believe the market’s rally (and increasing irrationality) is unsustainable. To support our notion, we would like to point out that only a handful of companies are responsible for more than half of SPX’s gains this year; in fact, Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA are responsible for about 60% of gains in SPX year to date (representing about a 5% move up in the index since the start of 2023). In our opinion, that raises a question of whether SPX and Nasdaq are even good to look at in order to assess the overall health of the economy (as few companies are having a too big impact on the overall performance of these indices).
In addition to that, we still have not seen the full impact of FED rate hikes due to a considerable lag that monetary policy tends to bring with it. Then there are also many other problems with people maxing out their credit cards at a time when delinquencies on loans are slowly starting to tick higher (for example, delinquencies on credit card loans went up approximately 36% in 2022), existing home sales faltering after a short rebound in early 2023, various commodities declining significantly (in a sign of falling demand), industrial production moving relatively sideways for the past few months, etc.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the narrow range.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500: Pull-back short term but new Bull Cycle ahead.S&P500 has almost reached the medium-term TP (4,220) so we are booking the profit on last Friday's buy position. The 1W timeframe is on steady green levels technically (RSI = 58.257, MACD = 54.060, ADX = 33.739) but the RSI is at the top of its Rising Wedge, indicating a possible loss of strength. We expect a pull-back to S1 and will buy it, targeting R1 (TP = 4,330), which is the High of August 2022.
On the long term the bullish trend is intact (Channel Up) and we have an additional reason to expect a new Bull Cycle, as the 1W Ichimoku Cloud has turned green and when that happened in the past, the 1W MA50 usually turns into the long term Support for many months before a correction.
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The number of SPX stocks above 200-day SMA is decliningThe 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) is a widely followed technical indicator used by traders and investors to assess the overall trend of an asset. When stocks rise above their 200-day SMA, it is generally seen as a positive sign and considered a bullish development. The logic behind this idea is that if the stock's price has been consistently higher than its long-term average, it indicates strength and potential for further upward movement. Conversely, if stocks drop below this level, it is viewed as a bearish signal, implying weakness and the possibility of more downside. Monitoring the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA can provide valuable insights into the overall health and direction of the market. Therefore, today, we will examine the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 Index that are currently trading above their 200-day SMA.
Since SPX’s lows in October 2022, there have been three significant peaks in the index, particularly on 13th December 2022, 2nd February 2023, and 1st May 2023. From October 2022 lows until the peak in December 2022, the percentage of SPX stocks was rising (as a matter of fact, this metric started to grow even sooner than the index, in late September 2022). However, after constituting a high in December 2022, SPX started to decline, and so did the percentage of SPX stocks above the 200-day SMA. This decline did not last long, and SPX began to rise again toward the end of 2022 and early 2023. The growth was sustained until 2nd February 2023, and after that, SPX started falling until a low on 13th March 2023. Then, the index began to rise again until 1st May 2023.
The SPX was accompanied by a rising percentage of SPX stocks above the 200-day SMA on the first two legs up. But on the third leg up, SPX was accompanied by the growing metric only until early April 2023. Then, in mid-April 2023, the metric started deviating from the increasing (or sideways-moving) price of SPX. This catches our attention as it can potentially imply exhaustion for the rally, showing more and more stocks turning bearish while the index continues to hold up.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX (on the top) and the percentage of SPX stocks above 200-day SMA (on the bottom).
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish (showing a lack of trend/momentum)
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Flattening retail sales, declining inventories and real outputYesterday’s financial print in the United States indicated a 0.4% MoM and a 1.6% YoY rise in retail sales for April 2023. The data showed that industrial production increased by 0.5% MoM and 0.2% YoY during the same period. Business inventories shrank by 0.1% MoM, and manufacturing production jumped by 1% MoM (while showing a decline of 0.9% YoY). As this mix of data did not help to bring much clarity to the market, we would like to look at the bigger picture rather than at monthly changes in these metrics.
Retail sales have been trending relatively sideways since March 2022. Moreover, since around the same time, business inventories have continuously declined, suggesting that businesses are not stacking up goods for sale (and are likely anticipating lower demand in the future). The real output in the manufacturing sector dropped slightly lower in the past half year, and the real output in the nonfarm business sector has been declining for much longer (at least since 4Q21). Furthermore, based on the preliminary report from BLS, nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased by 2.7% in the first quarter of 2023, while manufacturing sector labor productivity dropped by 1.3%.
These developments are not particularly bullish and should have investors on high alert. With that said, we continue to wait for more bad data (concerning rising unemployment, declining consumer spending, growing delinquencies on debt, etc.), which should finally start spooking the overly complacent market.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the chart of U.S. retail sales. This metric can be seen flattening since at least March 2022.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the business inventories.
Illustration 1.03
The picture above shows the real output in the nonfarm business sector.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SPX lacks a trend Since April 2023, the Standard & Poor's 500 index has been going sideways, primarily fluctuating between $4,050 and $4,200. During this time, ADX has declined substantially on the daily time frame, reflecting the lack of a directional trend. We continue to be bearish on the index while waiting for a breakout from the narrow range.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the same setup we introduced recently (with a bearish trigger below Support 1 and tight stop-loss above it); the significance of Support 1 grew with the breakout on 4th May 2023 (when it successfully halted the price decline).
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500: 4H Death Cross forming and can be short term bullish.The S&P500 is on a tight 4H range with 4H technicals neutral (RSI = 47.011, MACD = 1.690, ADX = 20.555) inside the Megaphone pattern. By Tuesday we should see a 4H Death Cross completed, which even though technically bearish, it made a short term rebound on the last two occurencies. As long as S1 holds, we will target the top of the Megaphone (TP = 4,220). If the bottom of the Megaphone breaks, we will target the S2 (TP = 3,925).
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Fears from banking sector might be about to spread elsewhereFollowing the last FOMC meeting, notable developments in the stock market took place. First, volatility increased significantly among regional banks, seeing shares of companies like PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance, Metropolitan Bank, and Home Street plunging by high double-digits. These declines, however, did not last long, and financial institutions recovered much of their post-FOMC losses in the past three trading sessions. Then yesterday, these companies soared during the pre-market and got sold off during the regular trading hours.
Interestingly, these erratic moves follow Jerome Powell’s reassurance (from a week ago) that the banking system is “safe and sound” and making progress toward recovery. While this might be true for major banks that are well-positioned to weather the storm, regional banks are still at risk of spreading contagion that can lead to a domino effect (similar to the one we saw last year in the cryptocurrency market with the bust of Celsius Network, Voyager, FTX, etc.). As a result, this might lead to more broad fear in the markets, especially once more economic indicators will start to worsen.
On the topic of these indicators, so far, an extremely low level of unemployment has been used as an excuse by many economists to say there is no recession ahead (despite history being full of examples when extremely low unemployment preceded the start of a recession). Therefore, we do not consider low unemployment a reliable indicator to assess that the U.S. economy will dodge a recession (also bear in mind that a person not actively seeking a job is not counted as unemployed). Overall, we would say that labor market data show a lot of discrepancies that could suggest otherwise (a growing number of continuous jobless claims, a declining number of multiple jobholders, etc.).
In addition to that, rate hikes tend to affect the economy with a lag (often noted as a lag of between 6 to 18 months), meaning the economy still has not felt the effect of the number of previous rate hikes, at least since November 2022 (equal to at least 100 basis points). With the FED’s target of a 2% inflation rate still being very distant, we think interest rates will be required to be held higher for much longer than the market is pricing in at the moment. In fact, we believe there is still a very high chance there won’t be any rate cuts in 2023. Accordingly, we expect this realization among investors to lead to a big repricing event we mentioned before. As such, our price target for SPX stays at $3,500.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the price action of particular banking stocks in yesterday’s pre-market.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the unemployment rate in the United States. Yellow arrows indicate extremely low levels of unemployment that preceded lasting periods of elevated unemployment.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 shows continuous jobless claims. The metric is up approximately 40% since September 2022 and about 10% since the start of 2023.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500 Megaphone and MA50 (1d) call for a buy.The S&P500 failed to cross over the 4195 Resistance (1) and the rejection pulled the price back to the MA50 (1d).
In the process, a Megaphone pattern has emerged and today's decline hit its bottom.
This is a strong short term buy signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Sell if it closes a 1d candle under the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 4195 (Resistance 1).
2. 3950 (bottom of the long term Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is bearish, trading under the MA level. The Support Zone where the previous two Higher Lows of the Channel Up were priced is lower. Use it as an additional entry signal for a potential bottom Buy.
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Notes:
Past trading plan: