USA S&P 500 (US500) Index Analysis 05/01/2022Fundamental Analysis:
As we can see the Index has shown a very strong come back after the Covid-19 pandemic of March 2021 which caused the market to fall and create a panic to the world.
Since then there are lots of changes to the world and the way companies are operating, such as releasing of their premises and offices as they should have discharge lots of their employees and the work from home schemes was the main reason to cut the expenditure of these companies drastically down.
From the other hand, the market administration and governments including Banks has injected lots of funds and so called Rescue Packages and the market stimulant's packages to protect the Market from its Hard and Drastically fall to the lower levels and prevent a gigantic Global Markets Crises.
These funds and injection of the cash to these companies along side of cost deduction due to their risk measurement policies, forced these companies to invest the receiving funds in to the companies assets to protect themselves from the Pandemic Crises and hedged their exposed risks instead of investing these funds to the new Projects or renovations which could Couse their Share prices to appreciate intrinsically but instead these investments in the assets made an inflation to the prices of the assets and created a bobble in their share value and Prices without having any inheritance or intrinsic values.
so we can easily have a decision derived from the current situation that there has to be an other market fall and crises soon so the Price and its relevant intrinsic values get converged and market comes to its correct values.
we can observe the same situation in many different centralized markets such as Dow Jones and even other Stock Exchanges around the world like London and rest European market places to be in the same inflated status.
there exist a huge chance of an other Global Market Crises coming soon which has the domino effect and Couse the entire markets to fall for some times .
This fall of the market shall remove off the liquidity from the equity and debt market and streamflow them to some green heaven Asset classes including Gold and silver or even newly invented Technologies such as decentralized markets and Cryptocurrencies and DeFi.
if we have a look at the Current crypto's Total Crypto Market Capitalization we can see it has a very good chances of Rally Continuation to some very high levels such as 5 to 6 Trillion dollars or even much higher.
Gold even can see higher Prices such as 2500 USD per ounce which is currently ranging at 1800 USD.
we even can some how speculate a 3 world War to be the initiator of this Market fall which is even not so far from the reality as the situation in middle east is not very stable due to the Iran and Israel disputes and new anti-covid's restriction social movements in Europe and America continent.
we shall analyze few other markets and indices and ultimately Propose some Assets which are at their low Points Currently and can be counted as under values at present times.
Technical Analysis:
we have used the Fibonacci retracement and Expansion from the low to the Highest point before the Covid pandemic to have a better vision of the Higher expansion levels for the post retracement's rallies and identify the Potential Price levels and resistance zones. where the market can show some stagnation and starts its retracement and price correction to the lower levels.
There exist a Bearish Divergence of Price and MACD where Price has made higher high levels but MACD made lower Highs which is the most significant and strong Bullish Trend Reversal and start of Market fall and Price retracement and Value corrections.
there are total of 3 Targets defined which have a very strong Support tendencies which can be interpreted as the maximum retracements points.
there are few Resistance levels are also defined to have a better vision incase of Current Rally Continuation which eventually can be counted as the Trend reversal points
Standardandpoor500
S&P500: Small pullback will provide the new buy entry.S&P500 reached the top of the four month Channel Up, remaining on heavily overbought technical indicators on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 75.225, MACD = 61.680, ADX = 45.310). As the 1D RSI is close to hitting the HH trendline that goes as back as November 2022, we expect a pullback, at least on the short term inside the Channel Up, first to drop the overbought indicators back to a balanced stated and secondly to form a HL on the Channel Up.
We are opening a sell on closing, aiming at a -2.60% (TP = 4,460) pull back which was the decline of the last correction. That will be a low risk buy opportunity (as long as the 1D MA50 holds) to target R1 (TP = 4,640).
If the candle closes under the 1D MA50 and S1, we will short and target the 1D MA200 on S3 (TP = 4,165), a potential correction that will neutralize finally the overbought 1D RSI.
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S&P500 Last push before a 10 day correctionS&P500 / US500 is trading inside multiple Channel Up patterns, the shortest of them started on June 08.
Based on the first bullish wave of this pattern, the current leg is on the last spike before a correction.
You may buy now and target 4560, before the next short term buy opportunity emerges again in around 10 days on the 4hour MA100.
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S&P500: Targeting 4,570 but may take a while.S&P500 made a new yearly High today after the U.S. CPI report and solidified the 1D bullish technicals (RSI = 66.131, MACD = 48.400, ADX = 25.681). The MACD indicator if it makes a bearish cross, it will form a similar pattern to the start of May where it turned the index into a 2 week consolidation before making a new High.
We will wait for a pullback near the 1D MA100 before buying or will make a breakout buy if the price crosses over the R1. In either occassion, we will target near the top of the four month Channel Up (TP = 4,570).
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Double-top on SPX?The previous week was filled with numerous data disclosures that provided deeper insights into the U.S. economy. Most notably, we saw the first month-over-month decline of the S&P Global Services PMI in 2023 (negatively affecting the S&P Global Composite PMI), a continuation of contraction in the manufacturing sector, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate (from 3.7% in May 2023 to 3.6% in June 2023). Overall, the data has not proved recessionary yet. But with services slowing down, it would be appropriate to stay cautious and wait for more data to reveal underlying trends in the economy.
In our opinion, the current valuations for stocks seem overstretched (especially in the tech sector), and the replacement of fear and calls for a recession by the narrative dismissive of any danger to the U.S. economy could lead to a volatile concoction in the stock market. As a result, we are monitoring multiple technical indicators on a daily time frame, including RSI, MACD, and Stochastic. All three of these indicators show divergence with the price and point to the downside, which is not particularly bullish. In addition to that, SPX appears to be forming a double top, giving rise to an interesting setup if the pattern becomes valid.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the mentioned setup. The bearish trigger becomes activated once the price breaks below Support 1.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows nearly the perfect harmony between the decline from January 2022 until October 2022 and the rise from October 2022 until July 2022.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish (with signs of weakness)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500 Will attempt to find Support near the 1day MA50S&P500 is so far on a flat 1day candle after a series of 3 red.
That keeps the price inside a Channel Up since March 13th and of course inside the longer term Channel Up since the October 13th market bottom.
The index should seek support on the 1day MA50 as it has done since March 30th, so that's a short term sell opportunity to 4330.
Consequently that will be the new Higher Low (bottom) on the Rising Support of the narrow Channel Up, hence a buy opportunity targeting Resistance A at 4500.
If the 1day candle gets closed under the 1day MA50 though, sell and target the bottom of the wide Channel Up and the 1day MA200 at 4150.
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Lots of data coming, questions over unemployment and servicesThis week, a barrage of U.S. data releases will help to shape investor sentiment. ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI are on today's schedule. Factory orders, FOMC minutes, and API crude oil stock change will follow on Wednesday. Then, on Thursday, imports, exports, ADP employment change, initial jobless claims, S&P Global Composite PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Services Employment, ISM Services PMI, and JOLTs job openings will be in focus. Finally, on Friday, average hourly earnings, non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and participation rate will be revealed (remember, we named only the most important data releases and not all that are scheduled for this week).
As the unemployment rate rose from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.7% in May 2023, we are interested to see whether there was further growth in the metric. If yes, that will be a negative sign for the U.S. economy. The same will apply if there is any weakness in the services sector, which has been (so far) holding fairly strong compared to manufacturing. However, if the data will come in as expected (or better), it will likely provide more lift for the market. We will update our thoughts after today’s release.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX, two simple moving averages, and horizontal support/resistance levels. If SPX manages to hold above Resistance 1, it will be bullish. But if it fails, it will raise our concern about the rally’s breakdown.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the unemployment rate in the United States since September 1998.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500: One last pull back is possible before a new High.The S&P500 is pulling back following yesterday's July 4th holiday and seems to have reached a temporary top similar to May 1st. That was nearly a 1 month consolidation phase, which after testing the 1D MA50, it initiated the new bullish phase. Technically that was also the Higher Low of the four month Channel Up pattern.
The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 67.005, MACD = 54.870, ADX = 30.096) and as long as they do, buying is favored. We expect this short term correction to test the S1 (4,330) and then rebound, which we will buy, to the R1 (TP = 4,500), which was the April 21st 2022 High.
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S&P500 Holding the 4hour MA50 is criticalS&P500 / US500 crossed back over the 4hour MA50 and so far today is holding it.
For this level to stay as Support is critical as a 4hour candle close under it can delay the uptrend and send it to the 4hour MA200, 1day MA50 near the Rising Support.
In that case sell and target 4300.
As long as the 4hour MA50 holds, be bullish and target Resistance A at 4500.
The 4hour MACD is on a Bullish Cross, favoring a buy.
Previous chart:
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S&P500: First buy conditions following the top are emerging.The S&P500 is close to a -2.89% pull back, same as the April 26th, with the 1D technicals turning neutral (RSI = 56.566, MACD = 43.450, ADX = 27.595) for the first time since June 1st. This is a standard technical pull back inside the March Channel Up that is aiming at the bottom of the Channel and the 1D MA50, which is untouched since May 4th.
We will use both 4,330 and 4,270 for a double buy entry, targeting the R1 (TP = 4,500). Pay attention also at how the 1D RSI is on the HL trendline since March, an additional buy signal.
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S&P500 Buy opportunity approachingThe S&P500 crossed under the MA50 (4h) and is approaching the bottom of the 1 month Channel Up.
That would complete a -2.60% decline from the top, which is consistent with the pull backs of late April and May.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy at 4340.
Targets:
1. 4515 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) gives the most optimal buy entry when it crosses under the 30.00 oversold level. If that happens near the bottom of the Channel Up, it will be an additional reason to buy.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
S&P500 On the 4hour MA50. Sell if this breaks.S&P500 / US500 almost touched today the 4hour MA50 for the first time since June 1st.
This is a Support and as long as it holds (along with the Channel Up), buy and target Resistance A at 4500.
If the price crosses under the Channel Up, sell and target the 1day MA50 at 4235.
If the 4hour RSI makes a Bullish Cross before 4235 gets hit, then book the profit on the short earlier and switch to buying again.
Previous chart:
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S&P500 RSI overbought but can give one last pushThe S&P500 is extending the rally inside the long term Channel Up.
The MA50 (1d) has been supporting and is untested since March 30th.
Such a strong rally undeniably created an overbought RSI (1d).
Last time the index gave a similar RSI pattern (August 10th 2022), the price gave a few more days of upside and one last push before a correction.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price and as long as the RSI (1d) remains above its MA level.
Targets:
1. 4515 (Resistance 1 and April 21st 2022 top, near the top of the long term Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) technically gives a signal that the uptrend is coming to a stop and a correction is starting, when it crosses under its MA level. Use this to your advantage in order to book the profit earlier if needed.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
S&P500 extending the Channel Up to 4390.The S&P500 index / US500 is extending the uptrend after crossing today over the 4330 Resistance of August 16th 2022.
The May Channel Up pattern may be transitioning to a more aggressive June Channel Up pattern supported by the 4hour MA50.
Our long term target is still a +8.90% rise from the last bottom on March 13th but are slightly downgrading it to 4390.
The 4hour RSI is also inside a Channel Up, with the current rise being similar to May 24th/28th.
Previous chart:
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S&P500 The August 2022 is the Resistance but the index can peak The S&P500 / SPX / US500 is extending the rise inside the long term Channel Up, supported by the 1day MA50.
As long as the 1day MA50 supports, we will stay bullish with the 4330 August 16th 2022 posing as the next Resistance.
Every rally inside the Channel Up however has been at least +9.50% so we expect a peak on the Channel Up top at 4400 if the August 2022 top breaks.
If a candle closes under the 1day MA50, seel and target 4030 (bottom of the Channel Up).
Previous chart:
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S&P500 Near the top on two patterns. Pull back possible.S&P500 is testing Resistance (1) on the Channel Up inside the larger Megaphone pattern. Currently it is at the top on two separate patterns.
The MA50 (1d) is supporting the Channel Up and the MA200 (1d) the Megaphone.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy on Support (1).
3. Sell under Support (2).
Targets:
1. 4175 (Support 1).
2. 4300 (top of Channel Up).
3. 4000 (bottom of Megaphone and near MA200 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) Highs (70.00) and Lows (30.00) match perfectly the Tops and Bottoms of the Channel Up. Use this to your advantage. RSI values of 70.00 are to be sold while values of 30.00 to be bought, as long as the Channel Up holds.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Bearish thesis is being put to the testWhile we have to admit that the U.S. economy is proving to be more resilient than we initially expected, we can not ignore that the market is going through a very uneven recovery. It is no myth that SPX and NDX have been propelled by a handful of companies related mainly to the hype in the AI sector (including Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia). However, when these companies are excluded from the calculation of the index, SPX’s year-to-date performance is actually negative.
As only about 40% of the stocks within the index are above the 200-day SMA, we can make a compelling case that more companies might join the rally, which could lead to more broad recovery and completely invalidate our thesis about the bear market rally. Due to that, we will pay close attention to this metric and focus on the incoming data, including Chicago PMI, JOLTs job openings, ISM Manufacturing PMI, initial jobless claims, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate. To support our thesis about the bear market rally, we would like to see an uptick in unemployment and signs of contraction in services (which is crucial because, so far, we have seen a contraction only in manufacturing). In addition to that, we would like to see further weakness in the Chinese stock market and economy (because, as we previously noted, if China is not doing well, then the West is likely not to do well).
In regard to the price action, we pay close attention to the critical level near $4,200. If SPX fails to hold above this level, it might signal exhaustion and potential short-term/medium-term trend reversal. Contrarily, if SPX holds above the resistance and more stocks start climbing above the 200-day SMA, it will be a positive sign, potentially suggesting more upside ahead.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily chart of SPX minus Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia; when these six companies are excluded from the index, SPX’s year-to-date performance is actually negative at approximately -8%.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the percentage of SPX stocks above the 200-day SMA.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bullish breakout from the narrow rangeA few days ago, we introduced a setup with a bearish trigger coming after the breakout below the narrow range between $4,050 and $4,200. Despite that, the market decided to go in the opposite direction and broke to the upside. This development is bullish for the short term, and because of that, we will pay close attention to the index’s ability to hold above this level. We would like to see SPX close above $4,200 in at least two following trading sessions to support the continuation upwards. Contrarily, if the price closes below the level, it will indicate exhaustion; in the case that SPX falls below $4,200 and then breaks back above it, the count will reset.
As for the outlook beyond the short term, it remains unchanged (bearish). We believe the market’s rally (and increasing irrationality) is unsustainable. To support our notion, we would like to point out that only a handful of companies are responsible for more than half of SPX’s gains this year; in fact, Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA are responsible for about 60% of gains in SPX year to date (representing about a 5% move up in the index since the start of 2023). In our opinion, that raises a question of whether SPX and Nasdaq are even good to look at in order to assess the overall health of the economy (as few companies are having a too big impact on the overall performance of these indices).
In addition to that, we still have not seen the full impact of FED rate hikes due to a considerable lag that monetary policy tends to bring with it. Then there are also many other problems with people maxing out their credit cards at a time when delinquencies on loans are slowly starting to tick higher (for example, delinquencies on credit card loans went up approximately 36% in 2022), existing home sales faltering after a short rebound in early 2023, various commodities declining significantly (in a sign of falling demand), industrial production moving relatively sideways for the past few months, etc.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the narrow range.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500: Pull-back short term but new Bull Cycle ahead.S&P500 has almost reached the medium-term TP (4,220) so we are booking the profit on last Friday's buy position. The 1W timeframe is on steady green levels technically (RSI = 58.257, MACD = 54.060, ADX = 33.739) but the RSI is at the top of its Rising Wedge, indicating a possible loss of strength. We expect a pull-back to S1 and will buy it, targeting R1 (TP = 4,330), which is the High of August 2022.
On the long term the bullish trend is intact (Channel Up) and we have an additional reason to expect a new Bull Cycle, as the 1W Ichimoku Cloud has turned green and when that happened in the past, the 1W MA50 usually turns into the long term Support for many months before a correction.
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The number of SPX stocks above 200-day SMA is decliningThe 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) is a widely followed technical indicator used by traders and investors to assess the overall trend of an asset. When stocks rise above their 200-day SMA, it is generally seen as a positive sign and considered a bullish development. The logic behind this idea is that if the stock's price has been consistently higher than its long-term average, it indicates strength and potential for further upward movement. Conversely, if stocks drop below this level, it is viewed as a bearish signal, implying weakness and the possibility of more downside. Monitoring the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA can provide valuable insights into the overall health and direction of the market. Therefore, today, we will examine the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 Index that are currently trading above their 200-day SMA.
Since SPX’s lows in October 2022, there have been three significant peaks in the index, particularly on 13th December 2022, 2nd February 2023, and 1st May 2023. From October 2022 lows until the peak in December 2022, the percentage of SPX stocks was rising (as a matter of fact, this metric started to grow even sooner than the index, in late September 2022). However, after constituting a high in December 2022, SPX started to decline, and so did the percentage of SPX stocks above the 200-day SMA. This decline did not last long, and SPX began to rise again toward the end of 2022 and early 2023. The growth was sustained until 2nd February 2023, and after that, SPX started falling until a low on 13th March 2023. Then, the index began to rise again until 1st May 2023.
The SPX was accompanied by a rising percentage of SPX stocks above the 200-day SMA on the first two legs up. But on the third leg up, SPX was accompanied by the growing metric only until early April 2023. Then, in mid-April 2023, the metric started deviating from the increasing (or sideways-moving) price of SPX. This catches our attention as it can potentially imply exhaustion for the rally, showing more and more stocks turning bearish while the index continues to hold up.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX (on the top) and the percentage of SPX stocks above 200-day SMA (on the bottom).
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish (showing a lack of trend/momentum)
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Flattening retail sales, declining inventories and real outputYesterday’s financial print in the United States indicated a 0.4% MoM and a 1.6% YoY rise in retail sales for April 2023. The data showed that industrial production increased by 0.5% MoM and 0.2% YoY during the same period. Business inventories shrank by 0.1% MoM, and manufacturing production jumped by 1% MoM (while showing a decline of 0.9% YoY). As this mix of data did not help to bring much clarity to the market, we would like to look at the bigger picture rather than at monthly changes in these metrics.
Retail sales have been trending relatively sideways since March 2022. Moreover, since around the same time, business inventories have continuously declined, suggesting that businesses are not stacking up goods for sale (and are likely anticipating lower demand in the future). The real output in the manufacturing sector dropped slightly lower in the past half year, and the real output in the nonfarm business sector has been declining for much longer (at least since 4Q21). Furthermore, based on the preliminary report from BLS, nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased by 2.7% in the first quarter of 2023, while manufacturing sector labor productivity dropped by 1.3%.
These developments are not particularly bullish and should have investors on high alert. With that said, we continue to wait for more bad data (concerning rising unemployment, declining consumer spending, growing delinquencies on debt, etc.), which should finally start spooking the overly complacent market.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the chart of U.S. retail sales. This metric can be seen flattening since at least March 2022.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the business inventories.
Illustration 1.03
The picture above shows the real output in the nonfarm business sector.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SPX lacks a trend Since April 2023, the Standard & Poor's 500 index has been going sideways, primarily fluctuating between $4,050 and $4,200. During this time, ADX has declined substantially on the daily time frame, reflecting the lack of a directional trend. We continue to be bearish on the index while waiting for a breakout from the narrow range.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the same setup we introduced recently (with a bearish trigger below Support 1 and tight stop-loss above it); the significance of Support 1 grew with the breakout on 4th May 2023 (when it successfully halted the price decline).
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.