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Standardandpoor500

BITCOIN and S&P500 on similar fortunes. Target 64000 and 4900.his is not one of our usual analyses but we found a pattern that Bitcoin and S&P500 shared in the past and may replicate in the future now that the Bull Cycle has restarted. Based on this the first target for both of them when the get out of a Bear Cycle is Fibonacci 2.0 from the last High before the final selloff. For Bitcoin that target is 64000 and for the S&P500 4900. Long term outlook don't get confused with our usual shorter term signals. Please like, follow and comment!!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingBrokersView
1
"Crash landing" instead of "soft landing"?Yesterday, U.S. inflation came up in line with expectations, and the market continued to enjoy relief after last week’s route. However, while the FED is progressing in fighting soaring prices, many problems are still on the horizon (declining corporate profits, rising unemployment, the persistence of tight monetary policy, problems in the banking sector, etc.). As such, market developments are starting to align for the “crash landing” instead of the “soft landing” that everyone was so eager to forecast just a month or two ago. With that said, we remain bearish on the U.S. stock market and expect it to decline by 20-30% in the coming months. Accordingly, we maintain our price target for SPX at $3 400. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
14
S&P500 flashing a buy signal of 100% success rate since October.The S&P500 index may have been rejected yesterday following Powell's testimony on a possible need for stronger rate hikes but technically it has reached a level and formed a certain pattern that since the October Channel Up started, it has appeared 4 timed with a 100% success rate for rebounding to a Higher High. The Rising Support on the RSI is common on all those 4 times as well as the current formation. Short term Target is 4130 (Fibonacci 0.5) and long term Target is 4250 (Fibonacci 0.786). Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
2
S&P500: This correction is just a Bull Market Higher Low.The S&P500 index is having investors puzzled once more with the February correction as it turned the 1W technicals neutral again (RSI = 48.600, MACD = 4.420, ADX = 34.962). The price is under the 1W MA50 but the 1D MA100 is supporting along with the 1D MA200. Having made the Bear Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200, it is obvious that in contrast to the Bear's Bearish Reversals (three patterns with red arrow), it made a Bullish reversal (green arrow) on the December 19th Low. That was the first Higher Low of the new Bull Cycle and it is beyond doubt that we have transitioned into it. The 1W RSI is on a Channel Up and as long as it doesn't make a Lower Low, we expect S&P500 to make its second Higher Low of the Bull Cycle now. The Fibonacci levels have formed all major Higher since 2022 with tha latter being the Bull Cycles first Higher High on the 0.5 Fibonacci (January 30th). Technically we expect Fibonacci 0.618 to get hit on the next Higher High. We are long, TP = 4,300. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
8
S&P500: Selling started inside the Channel UpS&P500 turned neutral on its 1D time frame (RSI = 51.591, MACD = 36.770, ADX = 21.671) after a Double Top formation pushed it on the February 10th Low. The long term pattern remains a Channel Up and as the RSI is printing a variance identical to the first 2 weeks of December that formed the top, we expect a similar decline to start, aiming at the bottom of the pattern. We remain on sell positions since our last analysis and aim at the 1D MA50 (TP = 4,000). If the 1D MA200 is crossed, we will short again aiming at the bottom of the Channel Up (TP = 3,865). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
UShort
by InvestingScope
4
S&P500: Selling aimed at the 4H MA200The S&P500 index remains neutral on the 4H time-frame (RSI = 54.250, MACD = 4.390, ADX = 29.647) and without any technical buying pressure, especially following the higher than expected CPI report today, may be have made a Double Top similar to December 13th. If the 4,200 Resistance breaks, we will buy and TP = 4,300 (under 4,330 August 16th High). Until then, we will follow the technical pressure as suggested by the previous Double Top and sell aiming at the 4H MA200 (TP = 4,020). Consider a full daily close below the 4H MA200 a sell trigger aiming at the bottom of the long term Channel Up (TP = 3,850). Then we can buy relatively safely again for the long term (TP = 4,240). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
UShort
by InvestingScope
5
From "FED's pivot" hopes to a "strong labor market" excuseYesterday brought another interesting trading session, with the market being very complacent before Jerome Powell’s speech. However, as soon as he walked on the stage at the Economic Club of Washington, the market rallied. In the early minutes of the speech, SPX jumped up approximately 1.20%. Although, once the FED’s chairman mentioned ongoing rate hikes in the future, SPX slumped by almost 1.8%, bringing it into negative territory. Then again, a few minutes later, the market found its excuse in a strong labor market and rallied toward the end of the day. As a result, SPX closed 1.29% up for the day. This market behavior continues to highlight a tense yet very optimistic mood among market participants, who are back to buying dips. Nonetheless, nothing changes in the big picture. The rally continues against worsening economic data (corporations being hit by a significant decline in net income in 2022, a slowdown in economic activity, declining consumer savings, slow growth of wages, etc.) and assurances of the FED to tighten economic conditions even more in 2023. Overall, the market sentiment seems to have shifted from investors looking for FED’s pivot to them focusing on strong labor market data. Just like on previous occasions, we do not argue against the continuation of the rally in the short term. However, we continue to notice more and more problems in the economy and a growing disconnect between market expectations and reality. That casts a dubious shadow over the market’s performance in the coming months and moves us closer to a big repricing event. With that said, we stick to our price target on the downside for SPX in 2023 at $3 400. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the 1-minute chart of SPX. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of SPX. If the price breaks above Resistance 1, it will bolster a bullish case in the short term; contrarily, if the price breaks below Support 1, it will hint at exhaustion in the rally. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
27
Investors attempt to call FED's bluffThe Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday. Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to hiking rates throughout the year, and, more importantly, he dismissed any prospects of rate cuts in 2023. Despite that, investors seem to ignore the FED’s rhetoric and try to fight it. In our opinion, the disconnect between reality and the market is growing to tremendous proportions that we have not seen in years. That is particularly worrisome as we continue to see a lot of corporate underperformance and outlook downgrades during the current earnings season. As we noted in our previous article, the conditions are moving closer to a big repricing event. Investors are irrationally complacent at the moment, trying to call FED’s bluff. However, we expect the mood to change once it becomes clear that the U.S. central bank is not bluffing (or once we start seeing a deterioration in the labor market). Therefore, we treat the current rally with the utmost caution. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of SPX. It also shows two SMAs and simple support/resistance levels. For the rally’s continuation, we would like to see SPX hold above Support 1 and SMAs. If the price breaks below Support 1, it will bolster the bearish odds; the same applies if it falls below SMAs. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the weekly chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates a price retracement toward the 50-week SMA (and breakout above it). We will pay close attention if the price manages to hold above this level; if yes, it will further bolster the bullish odds. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
47
Do you really want to fight the FED?The current week will bring a lot of exciting events for market participants. Several big corporations are set to disclose their earnings for the fourth quarter of 2022, and the release of important financial data (Dallas FED Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI, ISM Manufacturing, employment cost, CB consumer confidence, ADP employment change, etc.) is likely to give more mixed signals about the economy. As if it was not enough, U.S. central bankers are expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. We believe the FED’s rate hike will further weigh on the economy, resulting in more mom-and-pop businesses going bankrupt due to soaring debt servicing costs (and persistent inflation). Inadvertently, this will put more pressure on the labor market, which we expect to start revealing more underlying economic problems in the coming months. This view coincides with the Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents from December 2022. These projections show that the FED anticipates the median unemployment rate to reach 4.6% in 2023. As a matter of fact, since 1949, each 1% increase in unemployment has accompanied a recession (unemployment in December was 3.5%). Therefore, we would argue that the FED implicitly points to a recession in the second half of 2023. Furthermore, the market sentiment is becoming overly bullish and complacent while not pricing in a significant economic downturn. As a result, we think market conditions are moving closer to creating a perfect setup for a big repricing event. With that said, we remain bearish on SPX (beyond the short-term) and maintain our price target at $3 400. Some of the companies reporting their earnings this week: Apple Alphabet Amazon Exxon Mobil Corp. Pfizer McDonald's Caterpillar Phillips 66 Spotify Meta Platforms Canon J&J Snacks Foods NXP Semiconductors Ryanair Holdings SoFi Technologies Whirpool Corp. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates the bullish breakout above the sloping resistance. Now, we will pay close attention to the price action. If the price breaks above the horizontal resistance, it may further bolster the bullish odds in the short term. Contrarily, the failure of the price to break above this level may signal exhaustion. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the weekly chart of SPX. Yellow arrows indicate the price’s retracements toward the 50-week SMA, which represent corrections of the primary trend. Recently, the price broke above the 50-week SMA (unlike on the previous occasions). However, this does not necessarily mean the primary bearish trend has reversed. To support a bullish case in the short-term, we would like to see the price hold above the 50-week SMA. The breakout below this moving average will be bearish and hint at exhaustion. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
35
S&P500 First 1D Golden Cross since 2020.The S&P500 is about to form the first 1D Golden Cross since July 8th 2020. The Triangle pattern is holding and the price rebounded today on the MA200 1D. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the Support. 2. Sell candles near the Resistance but have to close below it. 3. Buy candles that close above the Resistance. 4. Sell candle that close below the Triangle. Targets: 1. 4090 2. 3950 3. 4330 4. 3800 Tips: Based on the RSI predominantly, the current price action is similar to Nov 21st-30th. Please like, follow and comment!!
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingBrokersView
3
A thought for all bullish callsSPX is up 4.5% since the start of 2023 and 14.5% since its lows in October 2022. As a result, we are noticing an increase in calls for recovery and the beginning of a bull market. However, we are skeptical about these calls. With 2022 full-year results from U.S. banks, we now know their net profit decreased dramatically from the previous year; in the case of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, we saw this trend also in net revenue. Now, we expect companies in other sectors to follow suit and show corporate underperformance in 2022 (versus 2021). We expect that to confirm our thesis about the economy progressing deeper into recession; due to that, we have strong doubts about the sustainability of the current rally. Accordingly, our price target for 2023 stays at $3400. Change in net income for particular U.S. banks - 2022 vs. 2021. Bank of America = -14% YoY JP Morgan Chase = -22% YoY Morgan Stanley = -26% YoY Citigroup = -32% YoY Wells Fargo = -38% YoY Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX and sloping resistance. Currently, SPX trades slightly below the resistance. The breakout above the resistance will be bullish in the short term. We would look for a retest of the $4100 level in such a case. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of SPX and alternative resistance levels. A breakout above Resistance 1 will further bolster a bullish case for the index. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
19
SPX is set to revisit 2022 market lows in 2023For most of the last year, we held a bearish bias on the U.S. stock market. Starting in 2023, we maintain this stance and expect the market to dive deeper into a recession, dragging the price of SPX much lower from the current level. In fact, before the third quarter 2022 earning season, we outlined that the corporate earnings would reflect the worsening economic situation, with companies underperforming and slashing their outlooks. In 2023, we expect this trend to be even more prevalent, confirming the progression of a bear market toward its third stage, which is characteristic of distress selling. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the upcoming earnings season and look for clues of further deterioration on the corporate side of the market. In addition to that, we expect the persistence of elevated interest rates in the United States to weigh heavily on the global economy and debt servicing, paving a road for more trouble in the stock market. In accordance with that, we stick to our price target of 3 400$ for SPX. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow points to the impending bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish Illustration 1.02 Interestingly, the new year begins with the opening gap in S&P 500 volatility index. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
18
Will the FED minutes alter the course of SPX?Similarly to QQQ, SPX stays choppy, with market participants being overly bullish despite macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, we remain very cautious and dismiss calls about the stock market's bottom. With that being said, we would like to note that we will pay close attention to FED minutes today, which could potentially alter the current course in SPX. Furthermore, we will observe the resistance level at 4028.84$ and its ability to hold the price rise. Additionally, we will also observe the support level at 3911.79$, which, if broken to the downside, will act as a bearish trigger and support our bearish thesis about the potential top in SPX. Contrarily, the breakout above the resistance will clearly invalidate this thesis. That, however, will have little to no impact on our bearish stance, which is also based on fundamental factors. These factors point to more economic tightening and continually worsening recession. Moreover, as we warned before the earnings season, the corporate performance brought much disappointment in line with the progression into the second stage of the bear market that we outlined during the summer. In our opinion, it is silly to presume that the FED will suddenly stop hiking interest rates just because of the one better-than-expected CPI print. Therefore, we stay committed to our bearish narrative and believe the bear market is far from over. Accordingly, we maintain our price target for SPX at 3 400$. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES1!). Since the CPI print that sparked the rally, the volume has continued to decline. This development hints at fewer market participants willing to buy the index at elevated prices. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral as it trends sideways; if it starts to rise, it will be bullish. Stochastic reversed to the upside, which is bullish. MACD attempts to rise further. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame remains bullish. Illustration 1.02 The image above displays the daily chart of S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES1!) and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD points to the upside but stays in the bearish area. DM+ and DM- stay bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tradersweekly
7
SPX - Warning signs in the futures marketDespite our insistence on SPX moving to 3 500$ and 3 400$, it remains choppy between 3 700$ and 4 000$. With that in mind, we still have not changed our view and stay bearish on the index. We believe the market has not bottomed out yet, and there is much more downside in the future. Our thesis is based on the fact that the FED will continue to tighten monetary conditions, which will further weaken the U.S. economy. In addition to that, we are noticing sings of exhaustion in the futures market. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the trend in volume for the past few trading sessions. The recent decline with the price going up is bearish; therefore, we are very cautious. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD is bullish; we will pay close attention to whether it can hold above 0 points; if not, it will be very bearish. RSI and Stochastic are bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish as well. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and MACD are neutral. Stochastic is slightly bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
30
Short signal generated S&PMy system of trading just printed a sell signal for the S&P. Bearish engulfing candle on the 6 hour, Period 20 CCI pushed below 70 from above, period 5 hit below -130 signifying strong downward pressure. Not shown here, but a fib retracement drawn on the most recent move down on the weekly has the golden ratio(1.618) at around 3000 for a target. With FOMC tomorrow expecting 75bps hike, we could possibly see a sell off. Stops just above the recent high.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MonkeyPhone
S&P plan for this week.Hi there. These are my thoughts on how the markets will play out this week. In my opinion this is another bear market rally that is targeting trailing stops between 3950~4000. We are below the 200ma on the 2D and below the cloud. Taking this into consideration and the fact that FOMC is Wednesday and will most likely raise rates another 75bps I can see the following scenario play out. Monday and Tuesday we climb slowly higher with a sharp thrust upwards and immediate rejection from the shorts stop loss area. Wednesday the markets continue their downtrend setting in stone that we are in a bear market. Drawing a fib retracement on the weekly from the most recent leg down puts the 1.618 target at 2972. If in fact we get there, this will take several weeks to hit. Thanks for your time and good luck out there.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MonkeyPhone
1
SPX - Market mulls continuation of the rally In the latest update on SPX, we set the short-term price target of 3 500 USD, and the medium-term price target of 3 400 USD as our fears about the reality sinking back into the market started to grow again. However, we would like to note that if the price manages to hold above the 5th October 2022 high, it will force us to abandon our price targets; under such a scenario, we would expect the market to test 3 850 USD and then 3 900 USD. Despite that, we remain bearish and believe the current move up represents merely a bear market rally. Our conclusion is based on the fact that macroeconomic factors have not changed, even though technical ones are currently bullish. In our opinion, such a combination of technical and fundamental factors does not make up for the sustainable rally and trend reversal. Therefore, we will closely monitor the price action throughout the current and next week. We will pay attention to the FOMC meeting, which is set to hike rates and further pressure the economy. We expect that to negatively affect the market and spark selling again; however, we would not be surprised to see some speculation about the looming pivot followed by initial buying. We will update our thoughts prior to the meeting. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the setup for the SPX with two alternative trades; if the price holds above the invalidation line, it will force us to abandon our price targets (temporarily). Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD all point to the upside; however, MACD remains in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are nearing each other; if they perform the crossover, it will further bolster the bullish case in the short term. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart's simple support and resistance levels for the SPX. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic attempt to reverse to the upside. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
12
BITCOIN What a real Recession could look like...Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has never faced an economic Recession. There is no real comparative metric as to how this new digital asset can behave during such an economic downturn. Looking back into S&P's recent Recessions (2000 Dotcom Bubble and 2007/08 Housing Crisis) could provide some basis as to how BTC could fare relative to the S&P500 index (SPX) during a Recession. This analysis is on the 1W time-frame and so far it appears that Bitcoin (orange trend-line) is strongly correlated to S&P500 (candles) during the 2022 Bear Cycle. The Dotcom Bubble caused a -50.50% drop on S&P while the Housing Crisis caused a -57.50%. The index has already dropped -27% from its All Time High. Relatively to the previous Recessions, I've marked the analogous level. If the more 'modest' scenario of -50.50% is materialized, the S&P500 looks at roughly 2400 for a bottom. Again there is no absolute formula to measure this but is Bitcoin stays correlated to the S&P in this scenario, it can reach levels around or even below the December 2018 low. Can this be a fair bottom if this turns out to be Bitcoin's first Recession? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
3