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Standardandpoor500

A thought for all bullish callsSPX is up 4.5% since the start of 2023 and 14.5% since its lows in October 2022. As a result, we are noticing an increase in calls for recovery and the beginning of a bull market. However, we are skeptical about these calls. With 2022 full-year results from U.S. banks, we now know their net profit decreased dramatically from the previous year; in the case of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, we saw this trend also in net revenue. Now, we expect companies in other sectors to follow suit and show corporate underperformance in 2022 (versus 2021). We expect that to confirm our thesis about the economy progressing deeper into recession; due to that, we have strong doubts about the sustainability of the current rally. Accordingly, our price target for 2023 stays at $3400. Change in net income for particular U.S. banks - 2022 vs. 2021. Bank of America = -14% YoY JP Morgan Chase = -22% YoY Morgan Stanley = -26% YoY Citigroup = -32% YoY Wells Fargo = -38% YoY Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX and sloping resistance. Currently, SPX trades slightly below the resistance. The breakout above the resistance will be bullish in the short term. We would look for a retest of the $4100 level in such a case. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of SPX and alternative resistance levels. A breakout above Resistance 1 will further bolster a bullish case for the index. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
19
SPX is set to revisit 2022 market lows in 2023For most of the last year, we held a bearish bias on the U.S. stock market. Starting in 2023, we maintain this stance and expect the market to dive deeper into a recession, dragging the price of SPX much lower from the current level. In fact, before the third quarter 2022 earning season, we outlined that the corporate earnings would reflect the worsening economic situation, with companies underperforming and slashing their outlooks. In 2023, we expect this trend to be even more prevalent, confirming the progression of a bear market toward its third stage, which is characteristic of distress selling. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the upcoming earnings season and look for clues of further deterioration on the corporate side of the market. In addition to that, we expect the persistence of elevated interest rates in the United States to weigh heavily on the global economy and debt servicing, paving a road for more trouble in the stock market. In accordance with that, we stick to our price target of 3 400$ for SPX. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow points to the impending bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish Illustration 1.02 Interestingly, the new year begins with the opening gap in S&P 500 volatility index. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
18
Will the FED minutes alter the course of SPX?Similarly to QQQ, SPX stays choppy, with market participants being overly bullish despite macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, we remain very cautious and dismiss calls about the stock market's bottom. With that being said, we would like to note that we will pay close attention to FED minutes today, which could potentially alter the current course in SPX. Furthermore, we will observe the resistance level at 4028.84$ and its ability to hold the price rise. Additionally, we will also observe the support level at 3911.79$, which, if broken to the downside, will act as a bearish trigger and support our bearish thesis about the potential top in SPX. Contrarily, the breakout above the resistance will clearly invalidate this thesis. That, however, will have little to no impact on our bearish stance, which is also based on fundamental factors. These factors point to more economic tightening and continually worsening recession. Moreover, as we warned before the earnings season, the corporate performance brought much disappointment in line with the progression into the second stage of the bear market that we outlined during the summer. In our opinion, it is silly to presume that the FED will suddenly stop hiking interest rates just because of the one better-than-expected CPI print. Therefore, we stay committed to our bearish narrative and believe the bear market is far from over. Accordingly, we maintain our price target for SPX at 3 400$. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES1!). Since the CPI print that sparked the rally, the volume has continued to decline. This development hints at fewer market participants willing to buy the index at elevated prices. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral as it trends sideways; if it starts to rise, it will be bullish. Stochastic reversed to the upside, which is bullish. MACD attempts to rise further. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame remains bullish. Illustration 1.02 The image above displays the daily chart of S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES1!) and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD points to the upside but stays in the bearish area. DM+ and DM- stay bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tradersweekly
7
SPX - Warning signs in the futures marketDespite our insistence on SPX moving to 3 500$ and 3 400$, it remains choppy between 3 700$ and 4 000$. With that in mind, we still have not changed our view and stay bearish on the index. We believe the market has not bottomed out yet, and there is much more downside in the future. Our thesis is based on the fact that the FED will continue to tighten monetary conditions, which will further weaken the U.S. economy. In addition to that, we are noticing sings of exhaustion in the futures market. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the trend in volume for the past few trading sessions. The recent decline with the price going up is bearish; therefore, we are very cautious. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD is bullish; we will pay close attention to whether it can hold above 0 points; if not, it will be very bearish. RSI and Stochastic are bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish as well. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and MACD are neutral. Stochastic is slightly bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
30
Short signal generated S&PMy system of trading just printed a sell signal for the S&P. Bearish engulfing candle on the 6 hour, Period 20 CCI pushed below 70 from above, period 5 hit below -130 signifying strong downward pressure. Not shown here, but a fib retracement drawn on the most recent move down on the weekly has the golden ratio(1.618) at around 3000 for a target. With FOMC tomorrow expecting 75bps hike, we could possibly see a sell off. Stops just above the recent high.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MonkeyPhone
S&P plan for this week.Hi there. These are my thoughts on how the markets will play out this week. In my opinion this is another bear market rally that is targeting trailing stops between 3950~4000. We are below the 200ma on the 2D and below the cloud. Taking this into consideration and the fact that FOMC is Wednesday and will most likely raise rates another 75bps I can see the following scenario play out. Monday and Tuesday we climb slowly higher with a sharp thrust upwards and immediate rejection from the shorts stop loss area. Wednesday the markets continue their downtrend setting in stone that we are in a bear market. Drawing a fib retracement on the weekly from the most recent leg down puts the 1.618 target at 2972. If in fact we get there, this will take several weeks to hit. Thanks for your time and good luck out there.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MonkeyPhone
1
SPX - Market mulls continuation of the rally In the latest update on SPX, we set the short-term price target of 3 500 USD, and the medium-term price target of 3 400 USD as our fears about the reality sinking back into the market started to grow again. However, we would like to note that if the price manages to hold above the 5th October 2022 high, it will force us to abandon our price targets; under such a scenario, we would expect the market to test 3 850 USD and then 3 900 USD. Despite that, we remain bearish and believe the current move up represents merely a bear market rally. Our conclusion is based on the fact that macroeconomic factors have not changed, even though technical ones are currently bullish. In our opinion, such a combination of technical and fundamental factors does not make up for the sustainable rally and trend reversal. Therefore, we will closely monitor the price action throughout the current and next week. We will pay attention to the FOMC meeting, which is set to hike rates and further pressure the economy. We expect that to negatively affect the market and spark selling again; however, we would not be surprised to see some speculation about the looming pivot followed by initial buying. We will update our thoughts prior to the meeting. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the setup for the SPX with two alternative trades; if the price holds above the invalidation line, it will force us to abandon our price targets (temporarily). Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD all point to the upside; however, MACD remains in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are nearing each other; if they perform the crossover, it will further bolster the bullish case in the short term. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart's simple support and resistance levels for the SPX. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic attempt to reverse to the upside. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
12
BITCOIN What a real Recession could look like...Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has never faced an economic Recession. There is no real comparative metric as to how this new digital asset can behave during such an economic downturn. Looking back into S&P's recent Recessions (2000 Dotcom Bubble and 2007/08 Housing Crisis) could provide some basis as to how BTC could fare relative to the S&P500 index (SPX) during a Recession. This analysis is on the 1W time-frame and so far it appears that Bitcoin (orange trend-line) is strongly correlated to S&P500 (candles) during the 2022 Bear Cycle. The Dotcom Bubble caused a -50.50% drop on S&P while the Housing Crisis caused a -57.50%. The index has already dropped -27% from its All Time High. Relatively to the previous Recessions, I've marked the analogous level. If the more 'modest' scenario of -50.50% is materialized, the S&P500 looks at roughly 2400 for a bottom. Again there is no absolute formula to measure this but is Bitcoin stays correlated to the S&P in this scenario, it can reach levels around or even below the December 2018 low. Can this be a fair bottom if this turns out to be Bitcoin's first Recession? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
3
SPX - Relief until the FOMC meeting? In tandem with what we predicted last week, the market experiences wild swings up and down. By yesterday's close, the SPX was up approximately 5.3% from its 2022 low. Then today, even prior to the U.S. market open, ES1! continuous futures are already pointing to another appreciation of at least 1%. With that being said, we expect the market to continue showing signs of relief until the FED meeting between 1st and 2nd November 2022. Indeed, we think it is likely that the SPX will try to break above 3800 USD today; if it succeeds, then it will further bolster the bullish case in the short term. In such a case, we will pay close attention to other potential resistance levels at 3850 USD and 3900 USD. Despite short-term bullishness, we remain bearish in the medium and long term. Furthermore, we expect the selling pressure to return to the market after the FOMC meeting. Our views are based mainly on macroeconomic factors. However, at the moment, we abstain from setting any price targets. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX and two simple moving averages. Additionally, the red arrow shows declining volume for the past three sessions, reflecting a cool-off in the selling pressure. If the price holds above the 20-day SMA, it will be bullish for the short term. Technical analysis - daily time frame The RSI points to the upside; the same applies to the MACD and the Stochastic. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the weekly chart of SPX. Two moving averages are still in the bearish constellation. We will monitor the price's ability to retrace toward the 20-week SMA and the 50-week SMA, which would represent a strong correction of the primary trend. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is turning neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
33
SPX - News lows and the follow-upLike the rest of the market, SPX hit a new low for 2022. By doing so, it reached our price target of 3 500 USD, and therefore, we would like to provide our thoughts on this asset. We continue to be bearish in general. However, at the moment, we would like to stay on the sidelines and monitor the market. We believe economic conditions will worsen with another rate hike in early November and the upcoming earning season. Therefore, we have little faith in the reversal of the primary trend. Instead, we believe that the bear market has not ended, and new lows will be set over time. As for the short-term, we will look for clues indicating exhaustion within the bounce move-up. Indeed, we think the current bounce represents an excellent opportunity for repositioning on the short side. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. If the price breaks above the sloping resistance 1, it will be bullish; the same applies to the sloping resistance 2. The failure will suggest otherwise. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic show signs of reversing to the upside. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame shows signs of relief after the market became oversold in the short term. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
20
S&P500 CPI higher than expected. Can it repeat this bullpattern?The U.S. CPI came in higher than expected at 8.2% against a 8.1% forecast but lower than the previous month (8.3%). It remains to be seen how the market will react to that. Technically though, the bearish leg of S&P500 (SPX) since the August 16 Lower High within this 2022 Bearish Megaphone, is close to completing the exact same pattern of the previous two bearish legs, after which both rebounded aggressively above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to form a Lower High within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D RSI has been on a similar structure as well. The 0.618 - 0.786 zone is within 4007 - 4145 and the 1D MA200 at 4145 (and falling). Do you think the S&P500 will ignore the higher than expected CPI and repeat the pattern by completing it on a rebound? P.S. For better comparison purposes I've plotted all fractals on top of one another (blue, orange and grey lines). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
6
SPX - A new low for 2022The SPX hit a new low for 2022, confirming our predictions. However, we have no reason to change our bearish stance in the face of enduring macroeconomic factors. Therefore, we maintain our price target of 3 500 USD, which we expect to be reached by the end of the fourth quarter. Tomorrow, we will pay close attention to the release of CPI figures, which might spark strong buying or selling, depending on the print. Despite that, we expect the market to stay choppy, showing wild swings from one side to another, especially as the FED meeting comes closer. In regard to the November meeting, we believe another rate hike will negatively affect the overall market, pressuring it lower. Furthermore, we believe the SPX will drop far below our price target over time. As for the upcoming earnings season, we think deteriorating profits will further confirm our thesis about the second stage of the bear market. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the market developments in the coming weeks. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows point to the latest technical developments in the market. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the quick selloff after the PPI print today; this price action reflects how fragile the market has become over the past months. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
15
SPX - Fishing for the double bottom will turn out to be painfulAbout two weeks ago, we noted that the market was nearing 2022 lows, which led us to speculate about the short-term bounce. We reasoned that people would start predicting the double bottom formation and potential trend reversal. However, we stated that this bullish move-up would prove to be short-lived over time. Since our post, SPX hit a new low and then bounced more than 6%. At the moment, the index trades near the 3 780 USD price tag, which coincides with the 20-day SMA. In our opinion, this retracement toward the SMA represents the correction of the downtrend, just like on previous occasions. If the price breaks above the SMA, then it can bolster the bullish case in the short term. However, a failure of the price to break above the level and hold there will suggest otherwise. As for the medium and long term. We stay bearish and committed to our price target of 3500 USD. Our views are based on a combination of technical and fundamental factors described in this and previous articles. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow points to the price retracement toward the 20-day SMA. Two dashed white lines act as sloping resistance levels. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of SPX and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
9
SPX - We stick to our bearish outlookA massive selloff in the equity market ensued just a day after we warned investors that the latest move up in the stock market was so characteristic of a bear market. As a result, SPX erased approximately 4%. We continue to be bearish on the index as we expect it to drift lower. Accordingly, our price target stays at 3500 USD. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX. The breakout below the immediate support will further bolster the bearish case for the index. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
44
Traders Vs Investors fight evident in S&P500 chartsIts easy Identifiable from the SP:SPX charts, that the SHORT sellers want to keep the Index below the Red trendline the moment it touched it. Investors or we better call it the BULLS, want to change this scenario quickly and want to take the S&P500 out of this trading range shown in charts. Tomorrow could be a make or break day, but always remember Investors (the BULLS) win in long term, so we might see this range being BROKEN on the higher side very soon. Regards, Anshul
TVC:SPXLong
by simplyansh
S&P500 Outlook on 1H and 1D. The 0.618 Fib is the key.It is 2 weeks ago that we posted the potential correction on the S&P500 (SPX) index after the price got rejection on the 1D MA200: ** 1D time-frame ** Today's analysis looks into the price action both from a 1H (left chart) and a 1D (right chart) time-frame perspective. As you see on 1D, the price hit yesterday the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and assisted by today's NFP news, it rebounded back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This caused high volatility in the market and unless the 1D MA50 breaks, we can't expect any further buying pressure. ** 1H time-frame ** The 1D MA50 is practically on the 4020 Resistance set by the August 31 Highs. That takes us to the 1H time-frame (left) where we've set some short-term break-out levels. A break above the Resistance, should be taken as a buy signal targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (4140), while a break below the 3902 Support, should be considered as a bearish break-out signal targeting the Lower Lows trend-line of August. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Holding the Lower Bollinger. Not in a Bear Market yet.This is a simple S&P500 (SPX) analysis on the 1M (monthly) time-frame showing the Bollinger Bands and RSi indicators. Last month the price approached the Lower Bollinger Band to the closest level since April 2020. It held and July has so far been a strong green candle. As you see, we've had monthly breaks of the Lower Bollinger but no candle closes below it, more specifically Jan-Feb 2016, Dec 2018 and March-April 2020. The market continued its long-term Bull Cycle to new market Highs each time. In recent history, it was only when we had a montly candle closing below the Lower Bollinger (June 2008 and Feb 2001) that we got a confirmed break into a Bear Cycle. At the time of those closings, the 1M RSI was within 44.20 - 40.00. June almost hit that level but held and is seen rebounding. Do you agree with this chart showing that we are not in a Bear Cycle yet? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
2
Be careful with BEARS, NASDAQ / S&P 500 bottomIn an attempt to give another long-term metric that indicates the end of the bear market. The NASDAQ divided by the S&P 500 (NASDAQ / SPX) seems to fit this bubble due to the over-enthusiasm in technology and crypto, as seen in the year 2000. Taking into account that the bubble theory mentions that markets with growth bubble exponentials return to their initial trend (dotted line) this metric could be expected at values between 2.3 and 2.6 approx. Similarly, being long-term, this analysis could be completed in a period of more than 6 months or even more than a year.
TVC:NDQ
by Lottini