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Standardandpoor500

SPX - News lows and the follow-upLike the rest of the market, SPX hit a new low for 2022. By doing so, it reached our price target of 3 500 USD, and therefore, we would like to provide our thoughts on this asset. We continue to be bearish in general. However, at the moment, we would like to stay on the sidelines and monitor the market. We believe economic conditions will worsen with another rate hike in early November and the upcoming earning season. Therefore, we have little faith in the reversal of the primary trend. Instead, we believe that the bear market has not ended, and new lows will be set over time. As for the short-term, we will look for clues indicating exhaustion within the bounce move-up. Indeed, we think the current bounce represents an excellent opportunity for repositioning on the short side. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. If the price breaks above the sloping resistance 1, it will be bullish; the same applies to the sloping resistance 2. The failure will suggest otherwise. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic show signs of reversing to the upside. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame shows signs of relief after the market became oversold in the short term. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
20
S&P500 CPI higher than expected. Can it repeat this bullpattern?The U.S. CPI came in higher than expected at 8.2% against a 8.1% forecast but lower than the previous month (8.3%). It remains to be seen how the market will react to that. Technically though, the bearish leg of S&P500 (SPX) since the August 16 Lower High within this 2022 Bearish Megaphone, is close to completing the exact same pattern of the previous two bearish legs, after which both rebounded aggressively above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to form a Lower High within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D RSI has been on a similar structure as well. The 0.618 - 0.786 zone is within 4007 - 4145 and the 1D MA200 at 4145 (and falling). Do you think the S&P500 will ignore the higher than expected CPI and repeat the pattern by completing it on a rebound? P.S. For better comparison purposes I've plotted all fractals on top of one another (blue, orange and grey lines). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
6
SPX - A new low for 2022The SPX hit a new low for 2022, confirming our predictions. However, we have no reason to change our bearish stance in the face of enduring macroeconomic factors. Therefore, we maintain our price target of 3 500 USD, which we expect to be reached by the end of the fourth quarter. Tomorrow, we will pay close attention to the release of CPI figures, which might spark strong buying or selling, depending on the print. Despite that, we expect the market to stay choppy, showing wild swings from one side to another, especially as the FED meeting comes closer. In regard to the November meeting, we believe another rate hike will negatively affect the overall market, pressuring it lower. Furthermore, we believe the SPX will drop far below our price target over time. As for the upcoming earnings season, we think deteriorating profits will further confirm our thesis about the second stage of the bear market. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the market developments in the coming weeks. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows point to the latest technical developments in the market. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the quick selloff after the PPI print today; this price action reflects how fragile the market has become over the past months. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
15
SPX - Fishing for the double bottom will turn out to be painfulAbout two weeks ago, we noted that the market was nearing 2022 lows, which led us to speculate about the short-term bounce. We reasoned that people would start predicting the double bottom formation and potential trend reversal. However, we stated that this bullish move-up would prove to be short-lived over time. Since our post, SPX hit a new low and then bounced more than 6%. At the moment, the index trades near the 3 780 USD price tag, which coincides with the 20-day SMA. In our opinion, this retracement toward the SMA represents the correction of the downtrend, just like on previous occasions. If the price breaks above the SMA, then it can bolster the bullish case in the short term. However, a failure of the price to break above the level and hold there will suggest otherwise. As for the medium and long term. We stay bearish and committed to our price target of 3500 USD. Our views are based on a combination of technical and fundamental factors described in this and previous articles. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow points to the price retracement toward the 20-day SMA. Two dashed white lines act as sloping resistance levels. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of SPX and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
9
SPX - We stick to our bearish outlookA massive selloff in the equity market ensued just a day after we warned investors that the latest move up in the stock market was so characteristic of a bear market. As a result, SPX erased approximately 4%. We continue to be bearish on the index as we expect it to drift lower. Accordingly, our price target stays at 3500 USD. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX. The breakout below the immediate support will further bolster the bearish case for the index. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
44
Traders Vs Investors fight evident in S&P500 chartsIts easy Identifiable from the SP:SPX charts, that the SHORT sellers want to keep the Index below the Red trendline the moment it touched it. Investors or we better call it the BULLS, want to change this scenario quickly and want to take the S&P500 out of this trading range shown in charts. Tomorrow could be a make or break day, but always remember Investors (the BULLS) win in long term, so we might see this range being BROKEN on the higher side very soon. Regards, Anshul
TVC:SPXLong
by simplyansh
S&P500 Outlook on 1H and 1D. The 0.618 Fib is the key.It is 2 weeks ago that we posted the potential correction on the S&P500 (SPX) index after the price got rejection on the 1D MA200: ** 1D time-frame ** Today's analysis looks into the price action both from a 1H (left chart) and a 1D (right chart) time-frame perspective. As you see on 1D, the price hit yesterday the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and assisted by today's NFP news, it rebounded back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This caused high volatility in the market and unless the 1D MA50 breaks, we can't expect any further buying pressure. ** 1H time-frame ** The 1D MA50 is practically on the 4020 Resistance set by the August 31 Highs. That takes us to the 1H time-frame (left) where we've set some short-term break-out levels. A break above the Resistance, should be taken as a buy signal targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (4140), while a break below the 3902 Support, should be considered as a bearish break-out signal targeting the Lower Lows trend-line of August. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Holding the Lower Bollinger. Not in a Bear Market yet.This is a simple S&P500 (SPX) analysis on the 1M (monthly) time-frame showing the Bollinger Bands and RSi indicators. Last month the price approached the Lower Bollinger Band to the closest level since April 2020. It held and July has so far been a strong green candle. As you see, we've had monthly breaks of the Lower Bollinger but no candle closes below it, more specifically Jan-Feb 2016, Dec 2018 and March-April 2020. The market continued its long-term Bull Cycle to new market Highs each time. In recent history, it was only when we had a montly candle closing below the Lower Bollinger (June 2008 and Feb 2001) that we got a confirmed break into a Bear Cycle. At the time of those closings, the 1M RSI was within 44.20 - 40.00. June almost hit that level but held and is seen rebounding. Do you agree with this chart showing that we are not in a Bear Cycle yet? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
2
Be careful with BEARS, NASDAQ / S&P 500 bottomIn an attempt to give another long-term metric that indicates the end of the bear market. The NASDAQ divided by the S&P 500 (NASDAQ / SPX) seems to fit this bubble due to the over-enthusiasm in technology and crypto, as seen in the year 2000. Taking into account that the bubble theory mentions that markets with growth bubble exponentials return to their initial trend (dotted line) this metric could be expected at values between 2.3 and 2.6 approx. Similarly, being long-term, this analysis could be completed in a period of more than 6 months or even more than a year.
TVC:NDQ
by Lottini
SPX - Bear market rally is in progressSix days ago, we warned about the potential “bear market rally” in the SPX. Since then, the SPX has broken above the sloping resistance and gained 5%. Despite that, we still maintain a bearish notion of the U.S. stock market. We expect the bear market rally to be short-lived and weakness to return. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the sloping resistance and breakout we warned about in our last post on SPX. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastics, and MACD are bullish. DM+ and DM seem to want to perform a bullish crossover; if successful, it could further bolster the bullish case. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is bullish; however, it did not break the bearish structure. MACD and Stochastics stay bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
22
SPX - Bear market rally on a horizont? After making a new low on 20th May 2022, SPX erased some of its losses and bounced back into the proximity of 4000 USD. Currently, it trades around the 3960 USD price tag. We continue to be bearish on SPX; however, after more than a month and a half of the selling in major U.S. indices, we are on the lookout for a possible bear market rally. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the sloped resistance indicated by the yellow dashed line. If SPX manages to break above it, then it might mark the start of the two-to-three-week bear market rally. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD performed a bullish crossover; however, it still remains in the bearish territory. RSI and Stochastic point to the upside, which is bullish. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. The ADX contains a relatively high value, suggesting peaking conditions or a very strong trend. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows SPX's return to the channel. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. The ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
6
Are we at a S&P market top? Big picture view suggests yes.This 2W candle looks like it marks a turning point in the stock market. I often use Heikin Ashi candles to see when trend reversals are happening on larger timeframes and we seem to be getting our first red candle since 2020. What's notable about this candle compared to the two that we had previously is that the body of it suggests a trend change and not a pause in momentum. If I had to take a guess on what happens here, it's that we find support at the blue line and move sideways for the next month until the next two week pivot at the end of October 2021. Then I think the market is likely to correct from November onwards. The trigger will be us losing support at the top blue line which will signal a further downfall. I'm exercising caution here and will likely be moving into cash over the next month or so. Of course, we'll have to see how the chart plays out with time and this is really just to provide a macro view. I've provided dates of key dates to watch on the charts and levels of support on the way down if we were to lose that top blue trend line as support.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
1
S&P500 The 6M chart that helps us not lose perspectiveThe Standard and Poor's Index (S&P500 / SPX) has been on a strong correction these past roughly 6 months. For that reason, we present this analysis on the 6M time-frame, where every candle represents 6 months of price action. ** The RSI indicating where we are ** It is not a surprise that the current one is in deep red as its whole price action has been the aforementioned correction phase. The 6M RSI (pane below the chart) offers a valuable insight on where SPX may stand on the long-term as compared to the past mega-Cycles, which keep repeating throughout the history. ** Periods of recession ** As you see, the RSI broke below its MA trend-line (yellow line) for the first time since the first six months of 2012. Practically this was when the market confirmed the recovery from almost a decade long period of extreme uncertainty and volatility that was fueled by the two major crashes, the DotCom and the Subprime mortgage crisis. Historically, the last similar period was the roughly 10 years that followed the early 30s Great Depression. ** Same as in mid 50s ** Back to the RSI. The last time the indicator broke below its MA line, being that high (around 85.00) following the recovery from a Recession, was in the second half of 1957. Both are marked with a circle. The market posted only one red 6M candle and then steadily recovered. In fact as long as the 6M MA20 (green trend-line) was supporting, the index was making Higher Highs. Once it broke, it made a Lower Low and then after a Higher High, it broke even lower to touch the 6H MA50 (blue trend-line). That held and kickstarted a period of highly aggressive stock growth until the DotCom crash. ** The MA20 and MA50 being the multi-decade Support Zone ** Note that during both RSI breaks below the MA, the index has been way above the 6M MA20. In fact, the last time the index (almost) touched the 6M MA20 was during the March 2020 COVID crash. Notice how basically the MA20 and MA50 form the multi-decade Support (Buy) Zone since practically 1943. ** Conclusion ** This historic pattern suggests that if the current price action is modelled out of it, then the current correction shouldn't go past June and as long as the 6M MA20 holds, the S&P500 index is up for a sustainable decade of Higher Highs and Higher Lows where dips near the 6M MA20 will present buy opportunities. Do you agree with the above hypothesis or you think a new recession is ahead of us? Let me know in the comments section below. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
16
SPX - Bearish like all other major U.S. indicesSimilarly, like in the case of QQQ, we also maintain a bearish notion on SPX. Our price target stays at 4 000 USD. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish too. ADX paused a climb and dipped lower. The daily time frame structurally coincides with QQQ and is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. ADX increases, which indicates that the bearish trend is gaining strength. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
4
SPX - SPX is due to drift lowerWe continue to be bearish on SPX. Because of that, we would like to set a new short-term price target for SPX at 4100 USD. We would also like to set a medium-term price target of 4000 USD. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and MACD are bearish. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish area; however, it points to the upside. DM+ and DM- are bearish. ADX reflects a strong downtrend. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. ADX grows which is bearish. All this coincides with the condition observable in QQQ. Overall the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.01 Similarities in the condition of SPX and QQQ are detailed in the idea above. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
5
SPX - Volatility to wipe weak hands Yesterday, after the FED decision, SPX gained altogether with other major U.S. indices. Despite that, we kept our stance and did not abandon our bearish price targets. Indeed, we noted that the relief rally was in progress and that the abrupt move up reflected the market's fragility. Therefore, we continue to be bearish on SPX, and we expect it to form new lows in the short term. Our short-term price target is 4100 USD, and our medium-term price target is 4000 USD. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and MACD remain bearish. Stochastic points to the upside. DM+ and DM- also show bearish conditions in the market. Meanwhile, declining ADX reflects a recent pause in selling pressure. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX indicates that the bearish trend is gaining strength. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
4