S&P500: Recovered the 1W MA50. Best buy opportunity of 2025.The S&P500 is marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.606, MACD = -47.070, ADX = 35.637) as it is in the process of recovery from the previous oversold condition. What the index did recover however, and which is a massive buy signal, is the 1W MA50. Technically this trendline held two weeks ago, despite marginally crossing under it, and provided the basis for a new long term bottom. Basically it is the exact same pattern as the October 23rd 2023 bottom, which was also a HL on the 3 year Channel Up, declined also by -11% and the 1W RSI was almost on the same level as today's low (the S1 level).
Every bullish wave inside this 3 year pattern hit at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Given that this bottom was made on the 0.618 Channel Fib level, like both of the last two HL (Aug 5th 2024, April 15th 2024), we expect a test of the Channel's top by the end of the year. A TP = 6,700 would still be under the 2.0 Fib extension and that's out long term target.
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Standardandpoors
S&P 500 Analysis: Markets Start the Week on a Positive NoteS&P 500 Analysis: Markets Start the Week on a Positive Note
A week ago, while analysing the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), we noted that the market had officially entered a correction phase, as the price had declined more than 10% from its February 19 peak. This drop was driven by mounting uncertainty over the potential economic damage caused by the Trump administration’s tariff policies in international trade.
However, this morning, markets are showing signs of optimism following reassuring statements from officials over the weekend.
According to Reuters:
→ Trump announced plans to hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, while the U.S. Trade Representative is set to meet his Chinese counterpart this week.
→ The European Union has taken a conciliatory stance, delaying its initial countermeasures against the U.S. until mid-April.
As a result, sentiment appears to have shifted towards optimism, with the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) trading approximately 4% above this month’s low.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
As noted on 17 March:
→ The price is forming an ascending channel (marked in blue).
→ The fact that the price has reached the lower boundary of the channel suggests that bearish momentum may be fading.
Currently, we are witnessing an attempt at a bullish reversal from the channel’s lower boundary.
From a bearish perspective, resistance may emerge around the 5750 level, where the price has previously reacted (as indicated by the arrows).
From a bullish perspective:
→ Bears have lost control of the 5600 level.
→ A bullish gap at the start of the week indicates a significant shift in market sentiment. If positive news continues to emerge throughout the week, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) could attempt a rise towards the median of the identified channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P500 1week MA50 test is the last before the Cycle tops.S&P500 / US500 tested this week its 1week MA50 successfully as the price almost touched it and rebounded.
We have seen this kind of behavior in the last 9-12 months before a Bull Cycle tops.
In fact with the 1week RSI trending downwards on a bearish divergence, today's price action looks more similar to the October 13 2014 1week MA50 fakeout, which was breached marginally but rebounded immediately.
Based on that, a 6500 Cycle Top target by October 2025 is very much realistic.
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S&P500: Potential Channel Up rebound on the 1D MA200.S&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 34.564, MACD = -60.140, ADX = 38.870) as it unfolded the bearish wave of the long term Channel Up. The sequence has hit its 1D MA200 though, which is the major Support on this timeframe and being also the bottom of the Channel Up, we should be expecting a rebound. The first bearish wave of the Channel Up surpassed the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, so that is a valid technical target. The trade is long, TP = 6,300.
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S&P500 Channel Up testing its bottom.S&P500 is trading inside a Channel Up that just hit its MA200 (4h).
This is a strong short term buy opportunity for the next bullish leg.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6200 (+3.29% rise like the previous bullish leg).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) got oversold. The last 3 times this happened, the price immediately rebounded.
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S&P500 Channel Up priced a bottom. Buy.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a 20 day Channel Up.
The price hit today the 1hour MA200, while the 1hour RSI breached the oversold limit and rebounded.
The two times this happened before, it was a signal that the Channel Up has formed a bottom.
The bullish waves that followed, rose by at least +2.00%.
Buy and target 6200 as the new higher high of the Channel.
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S&P500: Neutral on 1D shows enormous upside potential.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.735, MACD = 16.510, ADX = 17.690) as it just crossed over the 1D MA50 again and after a 1D MA100 rebound remains relatively low inside the Channel Up pattern. The 1D RSI is also bouncing on the S1 level, where the September 6th 2024 bullish wave originated and reached the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is an excellent technical level for the next HH (TP = 6,300).
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S&P500: Be careful of this 4H Golden Cross.S&P500 is on a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.261, MACD = -3.250, ADX = 30.268) and on 4H it is about to form the first Golden Cross since August 21st 2024. During these 5 months, the trend has been heavily bullish but the 4H Golden Cross only managed one last High before the price corrected again to the 1D MA100. The 4H RSI indicates that we might technically be at the start of this final High pricing. For now we will stay bullish (TP = 6,165) but after that, we will only buy again on the 1D MA100.
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S&P500 bottomed on its Falling Wedge. Strong short term upside. S&P500 / SPX is trading inside a Falling Wedge since the November 19th low and today hit the pattern's bottom.
This has coincided with the 4hour RSI hitting the 30.00 oversold limit.
Every time this has take place, the price rebounded to at least its 0.786 Fibonacci and the 4hour MA200.
This time the 0.786 Fib is very close to the top of the Falling Wedge but we can technically target the 4hour MA200 a little lower at 5950.
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S&P500: Recovery mode activated. Next stop 6,200.S&P500 turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.702, MACD = 16.670, ADX = 24.717) as it rebounded near the 1D MA100, which happened to be just under the bottom of the long term Channel Up and has recovered more than 50% of last week's correction. In the meantime, the 1D RSI is making a bullish reversal idential to the last two bottoms. The two prior bullish waves of the Channel Up topped on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is our target (TP = 6,200).
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S&P500 5 month Channel Up bottomed. Bullish reversal started.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a Channel Up since the August 5th bottom.
Wednesday's Fed fueled correction crossed under the 1day MA50 but stabilized yesterday and today found support over the 1day MA100 and rebounded.
This low is very close to the bottom of the Channel Up and the 1day MA100 was the level that supported the early September pull back.
The 1day RSI is also reversing, and the 3 times it posted a similar pattern inside the Channel Up, it was a bottom.
Buy and target 6200 (+7.10% from the bottom).
Previous chart:
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S&P500 hit the MA50 (1d). Huge buy signal.S&P500 hit today its MA50 (1d) following the Fed Rate announcement.
At the same time, it is testing the bottom of August's Channel Up.
As long as it closes daily inside the pattern, this is a strong buy opportunity.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6200 (+5.75% rise similar to the previous one).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) hit its 3 month Support Zone. If it reverses on it, that might be an even better signal for a buy entry.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
S&P500: Channel Up ready to explode to 6,175S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.112, MACD = 49.220, ADX = 50.110) as it is extending August's Channel Up. The 4H RSI is forming an Arc pattern that is much like the below 4H MA50 consolidation of October 1st - 8th. After that was completed, the price rallied to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension to form a HH on the Channel Up. The 1.786 Fib was the target of the next bullish wave as well. Consequently, we are long on SPX, aiming again for that Fib (TP = 6,175).
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S&P500: No corrections possibly for the whole 2025.S&P500 is on excellent bullish levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 64.149, MACD = 44.390, ADX = 33.789) as it is extending the strong rise since the U.S. elections. Going back even more, this uptrend has been nothing but sustainable ever since the August 5th bottom that almost hit the 1W MA50. In fact that MA level is intact since October 2023. The index has been following a similar path with the December 2018 - December 2021 Bull Cycle that topped after a +105% rise. You can see that following the COVID correction recovery after leg (6), the index crossed over the 1W MA50 and never broke it up until after the January 2022 High in 574 days.
Consequently, we expect a continuation of the current uptrend for as long as the 1W MA50 stays intact. We are targeting a +105% rise yet again (TP = 7,150) near the end of 2025.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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S&P500: Bottom formed on the 4H MA200. Target 6,140.The S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.959, MACD = 37.160, ADX = 31.912) as it is on a sideways trade forming the new bottom of the Channel Up between the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200. The 1D RSI is on a bullish divergence that was present on both prior bottoms. Both rose by at least +5.30% after. That rise projection from the bottom is our target (TP = 6,140).
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S&P500: No signs of correcting as long as the 1D MA50 supports.S&P500 is on excellent bullish technicals on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 63.046, MACD = 60.810, ADX = 33.473) as it is capitalizing on the 1D MA50 bounce on the day of the U.S. elections. The long term Channel Up is still in full effect since September 2023 and even though we are close to its top, the uptrend can be extended for as long as the 1D MA50 supports. We have so far 3 corrections inside this Channel Up. The two prior to the current one, rebounded to or very close to the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. Based on that, we are targeting long term this level (TP = 6,400) for as long as the 1D MA50 holds.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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S&P500 (1h) Golden Cross indicates extension of this rally.S&P500 is rising on its MA50 (1h) which has been holding for the 3rd straight day.
On Wednesday it formed a Golden Cross (1h), a standard bullish signal on the previous 2 Channel Up patterns since the August 5th bottom.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6100 (+7.20% rise, similar to the previous Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is posting the same Bull Flag as on the previous legs.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
S&P500: Make no mistake. The bull is far from over yet.The S&P500 index may be overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 70.424, MACD = 27.270, ADX = 58.374), even on the 1M timeframe (RSI = 73.014) but the monthly rally is far from over. This isn't only due to the post election euphoria but also for technical reasons. Those have to do with SPX's long term cycles and as this chart shows, every 3.3 years the index tops and starts to correct until it reaches the 1M MA50, where the long term buy signal is flashed again.
The 1M RSI also helps on long term buy entries as it has a clear Buy Zone, but the same goes for selling (Sell Zone). The sell validation usually comes after a LH trendline is formed. The Time Cycles tool indicates that we can start consider selling after May 2025, so regardless of how high the price is, we will time our selling accordingly.
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S&P500: Rising Wedge targeting 6,000 short term.S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.812, MACD = 16.490, ADX = 32.155) as it maintains the Rising Wedge pattern that started on August 5th. The critical formation though is on the 1H timeframe and it is the Golden Cross that was just completed. All three Golden Crosses inside the Rising Wedge saw significant gains after they were formed. In fact they posted rallies far greater than the push prior to the Golden Cross, which means that we can currently see a move the will break above the Rising Wedge. Until then though, we have to follow the strict levels that this pattern provides us and on the short term we are targeting the top of the pattern and 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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S&P500: Next bullish wave is underway.S&P500 just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.557, MACD = 35.840, ADX = 41.016) as the price made a rebound last Wednesday on the 4H MA100, right at the bottom of 6 week Channel Up. The 4H MA100 is the level where the last HL was also priced (October 2nd). Morever the 4H RSI hit and rebounded on the S1 Zone. Regarding the bullish waves, both previous ones have recorded at least a +3.50% rise. This is our expectation once more and we are aiming for slightly under it (TP = 5,950).
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S&P500 This pull back is an excellent buy opportunity.S&P500 is pulling back intraday but remains over the MA50 (1d).
The bullish trend is intact and is being guided by this long term Channel Up since the 2022 bottom.
The price is right nowjust over the 0.382 Fib Channel level, which isn't overbought by any means.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6000 (the 0.618 Fib level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is about to touch its Rising Support, a pattern very similar to the March - June 2023 Rising Support. The two fractals look identical even on price terms. This also indicates a continuation of the bullish trend.
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S&P500: Best buy entry the 4H MA100.S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.185, MACD = 62.800, ADX = 52.249) but neutral on 4H, which given the long-term bullish trend, has started to ring the first buy signals. Technically though, a better opportunity would exist on the 4H MA100 and not the 4H MA50 which was just tested. In fact, the last HL of the 5 week Channel Up was priced on the 4H MA100 when the 4H RSI broke under 40.00 (bearish). We will buy when those conditions are fulfilled and aim for another +3.50% rise (TP = 6,000).
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S&P500 Channel Up on 1hour reached its bottom.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a Channel Up on the 1hour timeframe.
The price crossed today under the 1hour MA50 and reached the Channel's bottom.
This is where the two bottoms prior where priced.
As long as it holds, buy and target 5930 (+1.88% rise, same as the previous bullish legs).
Previous chart:
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