S&P500: The Megaphone gave us the perfect BuyThe S&P500 gave us the buy entry we were seeking at the bottom of the Megaphone, which happened to be on the 1D MA50 as well, a standard support level on uptrends. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 52.091, MACD = 17.390, ADX = 22.702) which indicates that there is upside potential to this move.
On our latest trading plan we set a TP = 4,200 and this is intact. On the long term the Channel Up is targeting R2 (TP = 4,330) which is the August 16th 2022 High. If the price pulls back we will buy on S2 (3,925).
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S&P500 Strong buy signal on the Channel Up.The S&P500 is trading inside a Channel Up for more than 6 months.
The price is now between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci levels, a zone that was the last consolidation during the previous two rallies to the top of the Channel Up.
The Target Zone is between 4280 - 4350, with 4280 being the 1.236 Fibonacci level where the previous Higher High was formed.
The RSI is still on a Rising Support as both previous rallies.
Previous chart:
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S&P500: Buy conditions inside a Megaphone pattern.The S&P500 index is approaching the 4H MA200 inside a month long Megaphone pattern. The 4H technicals are deep in red (RSi = 38.959, MACD = 4.530, ADX = 22.263) and inside this pattern when that took place, buy signals have started to emerge.
We are buyers and target the pattern's top (TP = 4,200) as long as the price doesn't break under the Megaphone or closes under the 1D MA50. If it does, we will short, expecting a bearish breakout targeting near the S2 (TP = 3,925).
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S&P500 Still bullish but sell under this level.S&P500 is extending its rise inside the long term Channel Up.
The MA100 (4h) is supporting as it did in the previous two Higher High waves.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the price is closing over the MA100 (4h).
2. Sell if it closes under it.
Targets:
1. 4220 (+11.00% rise).
2. 3950 (Channel's bottom).
Tips:
1. Both medium term corrections inside the Channel Up, started when a candle closed under the MA100 (4h).
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
S&P500: One last bullish leg before a new correctionThe S&P500 is pulling back today after it hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level on Friday. The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 61.663, MACD = 33.310, ADX = 42.403) as the current rise is the bullish leg that started on the Higher Low of the Channel Up and technically peaks near 4,250. That is our short term target and don't see a correction before that.
Of course we need to take into account the R1 Zone, which has formed tops 4 times already since June 2022 but this time the 1D RSI looks more like the July 29th-August 8th 2022, which was a stepping stone before a blow off top at 4,330.
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S&P500: Breaking key Resistance but the 1W MA50 has to holdThe S&P500 crossed this week over the LH trendline of the August 15th rejection on the 1W MA50. Proportionally this can be compared to the April 18th 2016 breakout. The key for a sustainable uptrend on that occasion was the 1W MA50. It held twice and sustained a long term uptrend. With the 1W technicals turning marginally bullish (RSI = 56.614, MACD = 37.390, ADX = 36.682) and the RSI on a similar HL trendline with 2016, we expect a few weeks of sideways trading and if the 1W MA50 holds, we have a legitimate case for a new long term Bull Cycle.
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S&P500: The 1W MA100 and 0.5 Fib are the biggest hurdles.The S&P500 gives a very clear impression as to what the situation is on the 1W timeframe. Despite the recovery early this year with the index crossing above the 1 year LH trendline, thus getting out of the Bear Cycle, the 1W technicals are basically neutral (RSI = 56.583, MACD = 37.340, ADX = 36.258). A big part of it is because the index has been ranging inside the R1 and S1 Zones since November.
Key levels to watch are 1) the 1W MA100, which hasn't been hit August 22nd and hasn't made a weekly closing above since August 15th and 2) the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which despite having candle's crossing over it, hasn't made a closing since (again) August 15th.
According to this, a last pullback to S1 is possible and then the decisive rebound that will make a Higher High on the 5 month Channel Up on the 0.618 Fibonacci, below R2 (TP = 4,300).
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S&P500: This may be the rally that turns the 1WMA50 into SupportThe S&P500 has completed 3 straight green weeks, the strongest 3 week rally since October 24th. As we zoom out on the 1W time frame where the technicals have just only turned marginally bullish (RSI = 55.603, MACD = 28.700, ADX = 34.959) we can see an attempt to form a Channel Up. The 1W RSI is slightly pulling downwards and since it started rising back in May, this was a pull back signal within a greater bullish wave. Those are clearly shown on your chart. The June 13th-August 15th wave rose by 18.90% and the October 10th-December 12th wave rose by 18.40%.
This suggests that there is still much room left to rise on this wave, thus we remain bullish aiming at another +18.40% rise (TP = 4,500). It is worth making clear at this point that if another such bullish wave is materialized, then the 1W MA50 will be turned into a Support for good. And this trendline tends to be the standard Support level during Bull Cycles.
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S&P500 Long and strong on this Channel UpThe S&P500 is extending the rise that we called 2 weeks ago at the bottom (see chart at the end) of the long term Channel Up.
Target (1) was easily and quickly hit and as the price is approaching Resistance Zone (1), we get the potential conditions for a short term pull back.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy any pull back under Resistance Zone (1).
Targets:
1. 4220 (top of the Channel Up and +11.00% rise).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is approaching a Resistance level that has previously initiated short term pull backs.
2. Ultimate long term target is Resistance (2) at 4330, which will fill the gap of August 16th.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
S&P500 First 4hour Golden Cross in 2.5 months.S&P500 formed the first 4hour Golden Cross since January 16th, breaking above Resistance A.
The RSI is on a Rising Support, same with the previous bullish leg of January.
Following the Golden Cross, the price pulled back to Fibonacci 0.5 and then resumed the uptrend.
Regardless of this potential pullback, we remain bullish on the S&P500 index, with our Target intact at 4280.
Previous chart:
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S&P500: Channel Up with Golden Cross closing the February Gaps.The S&P500 index formed a Channel Up with the 4H technicals indicating a healthy uptrend (RSI = 63.246, MACD = 19.720, ADX = 49.272). The 4H RSI is on Higher Lows of its own and the 4H MA50 is about to cross over the 4H MA200 and form the first Golden Cross since January 17th. A pullback will be an excellent opportunity for lower risk buys.
The Fibonacci retracement levels act as solid Resistance and Support zones so use them to your advantage if you trade short term. We expect R1 and R2 to get hit and as pointed out in our previous idea, we remain bullish with TP1 = 4,080 and TP2 = 4,160.
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S&P500: Is the Recession danger over?The S&P500 on the 1W time frame remains technically neutral (RSI = 51.005, MACD = 10.190, ADX = 35.849). Large reason why it has done so is because it has been ranging between the 1W MA100 and 1W MA200 for 22 weeks (154 days). That is a significant period that isn't that indicative of a bottom formation. There is still a large portion (could even be the majority) of market participants that believe we haven't skipped the danger of an even longer Recession.
What better way to look at it than compare the index with the last Recession, the subprime mortgage on in 2007-2008. We see that for some period of time, that Recession traded also between the 1W MA100 and 1W MA200, while also breaking shortly over the LH trend-line of the Cycle. It then started to decline aggressively on a weekly pace under the 1W MA200, something we haven't (yet) seen today, especially with the last two 1W candles being green. Also the MACD is now trading upwards after a Double Bottom while in 2008 it traded downwards.
Bottom-line, it is more likely that the danger of a Recession is over but a closing over the 1W MA100 would be ideal to confirm that. What do you think?
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S&P500 bottomed on the 5 month Channel Up. Buy.S&P500 hit the exact bottom of the long term Channel Up pattern and remains under the 4hour MA50.
This is an instant buy opportunity technically. The 4hour RSI double bottomed.
This price action looks very much like the previous Channel Lows of December and October.
We buy on the current market price. A crossing above the 4hour MA50 confirms it. Target 1 is 4100 (Fibonacci 0.618) and Target 2 is 4200 (Fibonacci 0.786).
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S&P500 Exceptional buy.S&P500 reached the bottom of the 4 month Channel Up.
The RSI (1d) is nearly oversold.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 4250 (top of Channel Up and projected +11.20% rise).
Tips:
1. RSI (1d) is forming a huge bottom sequence same with December 19th and September 27th.
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S&P500: Strongest buy opportunity of the next 6 weeks.S&P500 is approaching the HL trend line (started November 3rd 2022) on nearly oversold 1D technicals (RSI = 38.159, MACD = -14.370, ADX = 33.442). The main Support is S1 is at 3885 and the price may touch it as it may form a similar bottom to December 22nd with the 4H RSI needing to turn oversold at 30.000 first.
Regardless of that we are turning long on the S&P for the next 6 weeks, targeting R1 (TP1 = 4,015), R2 (TP2 = 4,075) and R3 (TP3 = 4,190).
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BITCOIN is lagging considerably behind the S&P500. Huge upside.We have Bitcoin on the left and the S&P500 on the right.
Bitcoin is getting rejected on the 1week MA50, while the S&P500 is trading between the 1week MA50 and 1week MA100.
This is a clear sign that Bitcoin is lagging behind the major stock index and that it remains undervalued relative to the rest of the market.
Therefore, Bitcoin's potential on a 2 month timeframe extends as high as the 1week MA100 +/- 32000.
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S&P500: Channel Down dominant but target this if it breaks out.The S&P500 is inside a Channel Down on the 4H chart ever since the correction started early in February. A correction that has caused even the 1D time-frame to turn bearish technically (RSI = 41.649, MACD = -7.180, ADX = 42.487).
As long as the price remains below the 4H MA50, it is aiming as S2 (TP = 3,900). However with the 4H RSI inside a Channel Up (bullish divergence), if the price crosses over the Channel Down and more importantly the 4H MA200, we will go long aiming at the 0.786 Fibonacci (TP = 4,140).
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S&P500: Short term correction.The S&P500 is approaching the 4H MA50, its first line of Support in the past 10 days. 1D remains positive so on the long term we are still bullish but as 4H turned neutral (RSI = 48.983, MACD = 17.390, ADX = 32.288) we are looking at the probability of visiting the 4H MA200 in order for the RSI to touch the oversold limit and turn into a buy again, as it happened December 7th.
Consequently, we are shorting with TP = 3,980. If the 4H MA200 is broken, we will prolong selling to the S1 Zone, with TP = 3,800. Only a break above the 4,200 Resistance advocates a buy (TP = 4,300) if it comes before 3,800.
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S&P500 Alert! Rejection on the Bear Market Resistance!The index failed yet again to break and close above the bold white declining Resistance, which is effectively the Resistance that has marked all lower highs of the Bear Market. This is far from an ideal scenario for S&P500 buyers. The Support Zone right below already supported once last week and has been serving as either a Support or Resistance since May 30th.
Below that its the bottom of the Channel Up to consider but if broken the price can reach Support Zone B and the dashed declining support.
Closing over the Bear Market Resistance will be extremely bullish for the S&P500, setting a target within the Resistance Zone.
What can help us be ready to trade the correct trend is the RSI, which is trading within a Triangle. The direction of its breakout can potentially reveal the index's next move.
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S&P500 Trend getting weakerSPX is within a rising wedge structure that has been getting weaker on each high. The 1hour RSI has a pivot line though above which the trend remains bullish but below turns bearish.
So far it is above and it is evident as the price is holding the wedge's bottom and is rebounding.
4040 the upper target if it holds. 3942, which is the first support, if it breaks where it can catch the 1hour MA200.
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S&P500 at the bottom of October Channel Up looking for directionThe S&P500 index (SPX) continues to trade on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up having failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since December 16. This has now completed a 3-week fall following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it appears to be staging a rebound, there is no confirmation as the 1D MACD hasn't made a Bullish Cross while the price remains also below the 4H MA200 (green trend-line).
S&P500 needs to break above the 4H MA200 and make the MACD Bullish Cross, in order to invalidate the Lower High it formed on the September 13 rejection that eventually led to a more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September, which would also mean breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line since January 04 of the previous year (2022), essentially the Bear Cycle Resistance. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
On the bright side, even a neutral price action within the Channel Up can form a 1D Golden Cross at the end of January, which will of course be a bullish signal.
Our targets above the 4055 Lower High are 4145 (top of Resistance Zone) and 4300 (Higher High of the October Channel Up). Below the Channel Down we target (as mentioned) the 3700 Support.
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S&P500 Running out of time and space. Can it avoid the fall?The S&P500 index (SPX) hit again the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up following two straight rejections on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This completes a 2-week fall following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it appears to be staging a small rebound early today, so far it remains even below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), where it had a clear rejection on December 22 as well as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on the 4H MACD, it appears that S&P is repeating the early September Cup reversal pattern. That sequence broke above the 4H MA50 and 1D MA50 in succession before getting rejected just above the 4H MA200. That rejection later initiated a new and more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom. Notice the 4H Death Cross on both patterns.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
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S&P500 Repeating early September. Can it avoid the fall?The S&P500 index (SPX) is rebounding since yesterday after the 7 day fall followng the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it rebounded near the bottom of the October Channel Up, so far it remains below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as well as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Based on the 4H MACD, it appears that S&P is repeating the early September Cup reversal pattern. That sequence broke above the 4H MA50 and 1D MA50 in succession before getting rejected just above the 4H MA200. We are now slightly past the 4H Death Cross. That rejection later initiated a new and more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
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