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Standardandpoors

S&P500 The inflation crisis is just a minor cyclical event!This is a complete roadmap of the S&P500 index (SPX) on the 1M time-frame, where we have taxonomized its historical trend on Super Cycles and Minor Cycles. As you see, since the Great Depression, we can categorize a whole era (approximately 42 years) as a Super Cycle. Super Cycles tend to end with a massive Recession/ Bear Market. Within the Super Cycle, we've fitted three Minor ones. The first two Minor Cycle within the Super one have ended with a minor corrections (relative to the long-term of course). Based on S&P500's current Super Cycle projection, it appears what we are only heading towards the end of the 1st Minor Cycle of the Super Cycle that started a few years after the 2008 Housing Crisis. As a result the current correction in 2022 due to the very high inflation, is simply viewed as another minor cyclical event at the start of a Super Cycle that is projected to end with a Recession around 2048! For illustration purposes and to help make a better comparison, I have plotted the first two Super Cycles (blue and green trend-lines) on the current one. We can see how thee current one has diverged a bit more than the others, probably thanks to the massive QE since the Housing Crisis. Also notice that since January 1943, the 1M MA300 (red trend-line) has been the ultimate Support and a rebound level on both Super Cycle corrections/ Recessions. This chart simply shows that long-term investors have nothing to be afraid of with this inflation crisis and soon incredible buy opportunities will emerge. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
6
S&P500: Bullish for the next 10 days at least.The S&P500 hit the 1D MA100 (green) on Friday for the first time since September 13. The rebound started off a Double Bottom and broke above the dashed Lower Highs trend-line that is consistent with all previous short-term rallies in 2022. Based on that, the price should stay bullish for at least the next 10 days and hit the 1D MA200 (orange). We can even make a case for a potential long-term bullish reversal above the bold black Lower Highs trend-line, as the 1W RSI has been trading within a Channel Up on Higher Lows since June 21, while at the same time the index made Lower Lows. This is a Bullish Divergence on the long-term but we will have time to analyze this in the coming days if the major breakout occurs. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
S&P500 Short-term Rising Wedge ahead of the Fed.The S&P500 is trading within a Rising Wedge pattern since the October 13 Low and which ahead of the Fed Interest Rate Decision tomorrow, should break-out. Until it does, the Support and level to buy is the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has formed the last two Higher Lows. This should coincide with a Higher Low on the 4H RSI trend-line. As long as it holds, the target will the the 3918.50 Resistance and above that a Higher High within 3990 - 4000. A candle close below the 4H MA50 would constitute a bearish break-out from the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Rising Wedge. In that case the immediate target should be the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Below that all lower Fibs can be filled. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
3
S&P500: Bullish for the next 10 days at least.The S&P500 hit the 1D MA100 (green) on Friday for the first time since September 13. The rebound started off a Double Bottom and broke above the dashed Lower Highs trend-line that is consistent with all previous short-term rallies in 2022. Based on that, the price should stay bullish for at least the next 10 days and hit the 1D MA200 (orange). We can even make a case for a potential long-term bullish reversal above the bold black Lower Highs trend-line, as the 1W RSI has been trading within a Channel Up on Higher Lows since June 21, while at the same time the index made Lower Lows. This is a Bullish Divergence on the long-term but we will have time to analyze this in the coming days if the major breakout occurs. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by InvestingScope
S&P500 The RSI Divergence. Critical break or make moment!The S&P500 index (SPX) has been rising aggressively since the October 13 bottom and broke again above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after its two day pull-back. By doing so it hit again the Lower Highs trend-line from the September 12 High. While the price was under this trend-line, the 1D RSI has been under Higher Highs. This peculiar Divergence has been seen another two times since the Bear Market of 2022 started. In fact it has been the exact same pattern on RSI and in the previous sequences it led to a drop. This time the index can invalidate it as there is a gap to fill at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2022 Bearish Megaphone, on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci Zone, which is where the previous Lower Highs were formed. Technically, this is all about the 1D candle closing. A close above the price Lower Highs and the RSI Higher Highs, is a bullish break-out signal towards the 1D MA200. A rejection and close below, is a bearish signal towards the 3650 and 3500 lows. Will it break or get rejected in your opinion? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
11
S&P500 Huge confirmation of our bull pattern repeat.Right on the October 13 2022 low, when the CPI number came out higher than expected and the market was in extreme fear mode, we posted the following idea on the S&P500 index (SPX), explaining how fundamentally the report was still lower than the previous month and more importantly how technically the index was flashing some early signs that it would repeat the previous two rebounds on the Megaphone's Lower Lows on February 24 and June 17: As you see, our expectation is so far being materialized as 10 days later, the index hasn't just avoided making a Lower Low going against the majority's belief on the CPI but also rebounded on the exact same day and is testing the October 05 High/ Resistance. This time we will see this in more detail, focusing on the 1D RSI. As you see, when the RSI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, the rebound basically started and on both previous sequences, it was as early as anyone could get. This time (October 14), it appears to be even earlier. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is just above and if the current Lower High leg follows the previous two, then it should break rather fast and target just above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which as you see is where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is headed. This trend-line is critical as it was exactly where the August 16 Lower High was made and the price was rejected, so right now is the most important long-term Resistance. As with the previous analysis, we have plotted all Lower Low/ Lower High sequences on top of each other with Blue being January - March, Orange April - August and Grey August to October (now). It is evident that all are very similar and compared to the previous ones, the current S&P500 levels constitute still a good buy opportunity, at least on the medium-term. For the long-term, the price has to break above the Bearish Megaphone's top (Lower Highs trend-line), which is the pattern that has been dictating the 2022 Bear Cycle so far. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
2
S&P500: More Pep!S&P500 needs some more pep to make it above the resistance at 3820 points, so let’s cheer it on! S&P, you are strong enough to climb above 3820 points and to hop into the upper blue zone between 3943 and 4015 points overlapping with the pink zone between 3963 and 4052 points. After you have finished wave (III) in blue there as well as concluded a countermovement in the course of wave (IV) in blue, you will continue to rise further. Although there is a 33% chance that you could lose your grip and drop below the support at 3502 points, that would only activate a detour through the lower blue zone between 3455 and 3285 points overlapping with the pink zone between 3362 and 3271 points. In that case, you would just complete wave alt.4 in turquoise and start the ascent afterwards.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
S&P500 Bullish Divergence on RSI targets 4000 short-termThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone pattern through this Bear Cycle of 2022. Since August 31, despite having the candle action on Lower Lows, the RSI on the 4H time-frame has been on Higher Lows, i.e. flashing a Bullish Divergence. The only other time that this took place within this Bear Cycle was early on from January 21 to February 24. As you see on this chart, during that early 2022 sequence, when the RSI broke above its Lower Highs, the price also broke above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and targeted the top of the Bearish Megaphone within the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.618 Fib is currently just over the 4000 level. Also note that yesterday the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) crossed below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) forming a Bearish Cross. The last time we had that formation was on February 24, exactly on the (short-term) bottom at that time. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
7
S&P500 Broke above the 4H MA50. 3900 next?The S&P500 (SPX) index broke above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which as we mentioned on our previous analysis, it was the bullish break-out signal. In fact the current post is an update to the post Rate Hike analysis made on September 22: The pattern remains the same and so does the current price action that appears to be replicating the late August - early September leg. As you see, when SPX broke above the 4H MA50, it was on the same MACD pattern as today and the subsequent rally hit not only the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) but extended as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous High. If completed, the 0.618 would fall exactly on the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the August 16 High. You can approach this in segments. First target the 4H MA200 or the 0.5 Fib and if you want to assume some more risk, pursue eventually the 0.618 Fib. This pattern may be invalidated if the price breaks below the 4H MA50, in which case we will be looking for the 1W MA200 as our target again (red trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
6
S&P500: S&P-inkS&P500 seems to be tickled pink – metaphorically as well as literally. The index has taken to our expectations and has a lot of pink to face. First, the index should fall below the support at 3639 points and into the pink zone between 3598 and 3508 points to finish wave III in pink. Then, it should return above this mark once more to complete wave IV in pink in the pink zone between 3712 and 3885 points. Afterwards, S&P500 should finally move downwards again, heading for the zone between 3362 and 3271 points in – guess what? – pink!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
6
S&P500 How to trade it following the 0.75% Rate HikeThe S&P500 index (SPX) dipped aggressively following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision, which was a natural reaction to the third straight 0.75% rate hike. The first one was made on Jun 15 2022 (rate gone from 1.00% up to 1.75%) and the second on July 27 2022 (rate gone from 1.75% to 2.50%). In both cases the market reacted positively by the following day, despite rate hikes fundamentally being negative for stocks. Especially in the case of June 15, the market was surprised as it got an even higher than expected hike (the forecast was 0.50% instead of the actual 0.75%) but still digested the news in such a way that it made a bottom on June 16 and started a rally that rose by +19%. That is the fundamental outlook for the moment. As far as the technical aspect is concerned, the index is below both the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since September 13. The trend is bearish since the August 16 Top. Early in today's E.U. opening, the price is rebounding as it hit the top of the 3750 - 3720 Support Zone (1). As long as it holds, it can technically target the 4H MA50. Only a candle close above it can extend buying targeting the 4H MA200. Notice the similarities with the August 29 - September 07 Channel Down that eventually broke upwards and reached as high as the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement Zone. That can make a perfect match with the 4H MA200. Note the similar patterns on the MACD as well. A closing below Support Zone (1) however can deliver an rapid fall to Support Zone (2) 3660 - 3640 and eventually the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is the ultimate long-term Support. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 New sell-off based on the May fractal. Can it be avoided?The S&P500 index (SPX) got sold off aggressively on Monday after a worse than expected CPI report. The price action since the August 16 High appears to be repeating the trading sequence of last May. As you see it seems to be a W structure that pivots off Symmetrical Support and Resistance levels, at least so far. If completed that means that the price should rebound on the lower Symmetrical Support Zone and hit the blue pivot before getting aggressively rejected to a new Low. Can this new projected sell-off into October be avoided? Yes but if and only if the following set of parameters is met: * Firstly the 1D RSI rebounds on its Higher Lows trend-line and NOT its 8-month Support Zone and * Secondly if the US10Y, which on this chart is represented by its inverted shape of the 1-US10Y symbol (black trend-line) for better comparison purposes, pivots off its June 14 Low. As you see that rebound was what started the June 17 - August 16 two-month rally on the stock market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 Rebound on the Golden Ratio +1st Bullish Cross since 2020The S&P500 index (SPX) is staging its first strong rebound since the pull-back started on the August 16 High, a correction that we projected with our analysis below: The downtrend has stopped on a hugely important Support cluster: * First and foremost, it hit and rebounded on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (orange one), which is technically known as the Golden Ratio. * Secondly, it hit and rebounded exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 16 Low. That is the second contact made since. * Thirdly, the 1D RSI hit and rebounded exactly on its 8-month Support Zone. Among those Support levels, we should not overlook the highly critical emerging formation of the 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. That is when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is crossing above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is considered a technical bullish pattern. If crossed, it will be the first such pattern since the June 17 2020 formation, which was on the market recovery trend-line following the March 2020 COVID crash. So where do all the above leave us now? We cannot ignore the big Resistance Zone of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, that rejected the price on the Aug 16 top. Those are now exactly on top of each other and should be the first important test of the current rebound. A break/ candle close above them should target 4515 level, which is the 3rd Lower High of the downtrend that SPX needs to fill. As you see on the chart, the last two got filled and formed strong Resistance levels in August. At that point onwards, a re-test of the 1D MA200 as a Support, would fuel the uptrend to the All Time High test. Extra attention is needed though at this stage as if the price is rejected again on the 1D MA50, the rebound attempt may end and if the pull-back causes a 1D candle to close below the 0.618 Fib, then the June Low can be tested and with that the ultimate Support of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). Set your SLs exactly on the break-out points. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 got rejected as expected. Now testing the first Support.The S&P500 index (SPX) had a strong rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which we caught on the exact spot with our trading idea below 10 days ago: The timing on this projection couldn't have been better, with early signs of a possible pull-back obvious as the Overbought 1D RSI has always been a trigger for technical pull-backs ever since 2019! This is something we analyzed extensively on that analysis above, so if you want to get more insight on it, click on the idea chart. Friday saw the strongest 1-day pull-back of this selling sequence and broke below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as well as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and today the index hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) just above the 0.5 Fib level. As mentioned on the previous analysis, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times. If it holds, a re-test of the 1D MA200 and the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, which is the top of the 2022 Bearish Megaphone, is possible but unless it breaks, a new Low on the 0.618 Fib is likely. Only a candle close above the Lower Highs trend-line should be capable of extending this strong rally since June. As mentioned on the previous analysis, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. Two factors that strengthen the chances of a bullish break-out is that this time (as opposed to the previous Megaphone Lower High rejection), 1) the MACD on the 1W chart is on a Bullish Cross, the first since November 05 2021 and 2) the 1D MA50 is close to crossing above the 1D MA100, which would be the first such Bullish Cross since June 16 2020 that was at the start of a 1 year and a half rally (see charts below): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 seeking two Support levels for the next leg upwards.The S&P500 Index (SPX) had a perfect rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), exactly after our analysis last week: As you see, the rejection was not just on the 1D MA200 but also on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, essentially the Lower Highs trend-line starting from the All Time High (ATH). As we mentioned on that previous analysis, the rejection took place once the 1D RSI broke into the Overbought Territory. We made a good case that in the recent past however, such RSI overbought breaks, have proved to be only short-term index price rejections and technical pull-backs mostly attributed to profit taking. To be more precise, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times, 1D MA100 (green trend-line) tests 1 time and 1D MA200 tests 2 times (but when price action was much more flat and of course we were not into such a high inflation correction). Scroll the chart to the left to see those. Currently the 1D MA100 is trading towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Aug 16 High, while the 1D MA50 on the 0.5 Fib. If this is indeed the first rally of a new long-term Bull Phase, those are the Support levels to consider. But if the pattern since the ATH is a Bearish Megaphone, what gives the impression that it may be the first rally into a new Bull Phase? Well as you see on the snapshot below, the MACD on the 1W time-frame rose after a huge Bullish Cross, the first since November 05 2021. Also the 1W RSI broke above its Nov 19 2021 Lower Highs trend-line and made a high above the previous Lower High of April 01. In the event of a 1D MA200 break-out, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. Also keep an eye on the RSI symmetrical Support Zone after Overbought rejections, for clues on where the price may rebound. We already broke inside it. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
14
S&P500 All time High trend-line is rejecting the uptrend!The S&P500 index (SPX) hit 3 days ago the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and got rejected. But perhaps an even more important development than that is the fact that this rejection also took place on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, practically the Resistance trend-line that started from the All Time High (ATH). We've been talking about the important of this trend-line since the March 29 Lower High but more recently warned you about on our July 27 analysis, where we gave the 2nd major break-out buy signal of the June rally: As you see, the 1D MA200 happens to be almost exactly where the 1W MA50 is, making it a major Resistance. The bearish sentiment gets even stronger, if we take a look at the 1D RSI, which is being rejected after breaking into the +70.00 Overbought Territory last Friday. In the recent past however, such RSI overbought breaks, have proved to be only short-term index price rejections and technical pull-backs mostly attributed to profit taking. After all, since the June 16 Low, the S&P500 has rallied almost +19%, the biggest non-pullback rally since September 02 2020! Just a reminder, we accurately captured the exact start of this mega rally with our analysis on June 20: To be more precise, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times, 1D MA100 (green trend-line) tests 1 time and 1D MA200 tests 2 times (but when price action was much more flat and of course we were not into such a high inflation correction). Scroll the chart to the left to see those. Currently the 1D MA100 is trading towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Aug 16 High, while the 1D MA50 on the 0.5 Fib. If this is indeed the first rally of a new long-term Bull Phase, those are the Support levels to consider. In the event of a 1D MA200 break-out, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. In both cases, the risk is very low being so close to the 1D MA200 and the Jan Lower Highs trend-line, so if you are a short-term trader, manage your trades accordingly. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
1
S&P500: Rare, Medium or Done? 🥩That’s generally the question when preparing steaks. Additionally, we might also ask S&P500 whether it is already done – namely with wave V in pink and wave 3 in blue. We still give the index some time and room to finish them both, but afterwards, it should get started on a countermovement leading into the lower blue zone between 4144 and 3998 points. There, it should complete wave 4 in blue and subsequently take off again. There is also a 40% chance, though, that S&P500 could drop below the resistance at 3950 points, thus eliciting a detour below the next mark at 3639 points and into the turquoise zone between 3597 and 3353 points.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
1
S&P500 closed above the 1W MA100. Last step before a +23% rally?The S&P500 index (SPX) closed its last 1W (weekly) candle above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since May. This has been part of a very strong rally that started after the mid June low. The 1W MA100 has been instrumental in recent decades at deciding whether the index enters a Bear Market or resumes the Bull Market. As you see on this 1W time-frame chart, during the 2001/02 and 2008/09 Bear Cycles, S&P500 failed to break above the 1W MA100 upon a rebound test (January 2001 and May 2008) and eventually got rejected in a Bear Market. In fact in May 2008 the rejection was more clear on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is currently the Resistance level that the index is testing this week. If it fails here again, we can get a repeat of those Bear Cycles, where the price dipped -44.40% and 52.60% respectively from the 1W MA100 rejections. A -52% sell-off would put the index exactly where the 1M MA200 (red trend-line) is right now (around 2100). On the other hand, every other time that the SPX broke above the 1W MA100 and successfully held it, the price rallied (from the level of break-out) in the coming months/ years from a minimum of +23% (February 2019 - February 2020) to a maximum of +80% (October 2011 - June 2015) before it ran into another market top. In today's terms, that would be a minimum of 5100 (+23%) and a maximum of 7450 (+80%) from last week's 1W MA100 break-out point. Which scenario do you think it's going to be? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
8
S&P500 Short-term perspectiveThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading sideways practically since July 29 and as it failed to break the May 30 High and current Resistance (in fact got rejected near it on August 08), it broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Even though the index had broken above its long-term Channel Down on 1D, on the shorter-term such as the 4H time-frame, there are some additional angles to consider before achieving higher targets. As this chart shows, the 4H RSI has formed a Channel Down while the price traded sideways, struggling to break above the May Resistance. The very same structure was also seen from May 30 to June 08. The bearish RSI made the sideways index trend break below the 4H MA50 and after a dead-cat-bounce, it sold-off aggressively. This time though, the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) isn't coming from above the 4H MA50 but is instead below it, ready to provide the crucial Support. In the same notion, the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which already gave a price bounce on July 26. On any given moment, a break above the May Resistance would be a bullish break-out signal targeting the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line) for the first time since April 21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 hit the top of its 7 month Channel. CAUTION.The S&P500 index (SPX) has reached the top of the Channel Down pattern that started on the January market high. This has completed our medium-term buy strategy on the Lower Low that we published 40 days ago: The Channel Down had to be adjusted slightly to fit the latest Lower Low and by doing so, it has brought the Lower High trend-line exactly where the price got rejected yesterday. This makes it a strong candidate for a medium-term top. The 1D RSI is also printing the very same peak formation. A tight SL sell on yesterday's High offers a great Risk/ Reward ratio, where we can target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the short-term and the 3740 Support on the medium-term. This needs to be tight as a break above yesterday's High can be enough to invalidate this 7 month Channel Down so in that case we will reverse to buys again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), where the 0.618 Fibonacci level happens to be as well. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 Huge buy signal on 1W. As early as it can possibly get.The S&P500 index (SPX) is close to printing the biggest buy signal possible on the 1W time-frame after the completion of this week. This is actually a combination of formation that, at least in the recent 4 years, when printed in this order, they established great buy opportunities as early as possible into a rally towards new All Time Highs (ATH). First and foremost, the index is close to a Bullish Cross on the 1W time-frame and that will be the first such occurrence since the November 01 2021 weekly candle. What's more relevant though, is that the last time we had this formed below the 0.0 level was on the May 11 2020 candle, which was after the market bottom of the March 2020 COVID crash and still at the beginning of the 2020/21 mega rally. Before that we had a MACD Bullish Cross below 0.0 on the January 28 2019 1W candle, when the market was recovering after the U.S. - China trade war tensions. In addition, last week the index broke and closed above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line on this chart) for the first time since March. As shown on the chart since 2018, in the three times the price broke above the 1D MA50 while a 1W MACD Bullish Cross followed shortly, that was always the start of a rally to a new All Time High. In the case of 2019 and 2020 particularly, the index reached the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) three and six weeks respectively after the 1D MA50 break. As a result that can be as early as the first week of September with the 1W MA50 currently trading at 4354 and declining. It is also important to mention that all such bullish signals were formed with the price always above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently the Support. Also, along with last week's 1D MA50 break, the index broke above the Lower Highs trend-line (1) that started on the March High and was exactly on the 1D MA50. Interestingly enough, the next and final Lower Highs trend-line (2) of the January High happens to be almost parallel with the 1W MA50. As a result if we break above it, again it will be a double Resistance bullish break-out and most likely will restore completely the long-term bullish sentiment to the market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
14
S&P500 Test of 4HMA50. Kept Support but many Resistances above.The S&P500 index has been trading mostly sideways since the June 27 High. The pattern that stands out during that time is a Triangle, with the price keeping (and rebounding since yesterday on) the 3750 Support intact (closed all 4H candles above it). The top of the Triangle involves a Lower Highs trend-line, approximately on the same path of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) that already has two clear rejections on the patterns Lower Highs. At the moment the price is testing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and naturally if broken a 4H MA200 test should follow. There are many Resistance levels up ahead, even if we close above the 4H MA200, we need to consider the Resistance strength of the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci zones of the Channel Down (remember it is the dominant pattern throughout the whole year when the correction started). The short-term strategy is to take one Resistance at a time and target the higher levels only if we get a clear 4H candle closing above the current Resistance at hand. In the same notion, a break above the Channel Down, which is approximately where the 0.382 Fib is, targets the 0.618 level at around 4320. Similarly a closing below the 3750 Support, targets the 0.236 Fibonacci level. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 about to test the 1D MA50 for 1st time since AprilThe S&P500 index (SPX) has completed three straight green 1D candles and is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for a test that would be its first since April 21. This idea is basically a continuation of out analysis posted two weeks ago, exactly at the bottom (Lower Low) of the Channel Down: With the markets anticipating favorable NFP numbers today, the index is well on its way to repeat the March rise to a new Channel Down Lower High. That sequence topped a little over the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level but if repeated, that would push the price above the Channel around 4320, which is also approximately where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is. Based on the 1D RSI pattern of the same sequence, we are exactly at the point before the 1D MA50 break-out. If you followed us on the bottom call, you may book the profit and re-engage either if the 1D MA50 breaks or upon a pull-back. In either case, the technical Lower High and target should not exceed 4100. The invalidation of this pattern will come only with a weekly closing below the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), in which case we may see a rapid sell-off towards the 1M MA100. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
1