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Standardandpoors500

S&P500 Yesterday's crash has confirmed +9.20% rebound.The S&P500 index (SPX) rebounded strongly back to its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), following yesterday's flash crash and recovered most than 50% of last week's Highs. The rebound took place exactly on the former Lower Highs trend-line of December's correction. This correction was the technical Bearish Leg of the post August 05 2024 Channel Up and the rebound on it indicates that the market has turned it from Resistance to Support. Similar Lower Highs trend-lines were formed during the last two major corrections (July and April 2024) and the common feature on all (including the current one) is that a 4H Golden Cross was formed immediately after the break-out. What followed after the Golden Cross was one last pull-back before a +9.20% rise. Yesterday's crash is most likely that pull-back. As a result, we should now be expecting a new +9.20% rise on the medium-term, with our Target being 6450. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
6
S&P 500 Rebounds After Monday’s DropS&P 500 Rebounds After Monday’s Drop The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) has recovered following Monday’s sharp decline, which was triggered by the success of Chinese startup DeepSeek and its AI model. As of this morning, the index is trading above the week’s early high. This resilience suggests that the stock market has stabilised ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision, scheduled for today at 22:00 GMT+3. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, but the key question is what stance Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take now that Donald Trump has officially assumed the U.S. presidency. Trump has already stated at the Davos forum that interest rates should be lowered. Powell’s press conference is set for 22:30 GMT+3. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows that the price is approaching the 6,100 level for the third time. The first two attempts to break above this level (marked with red arrows) were unsuccessful. From a bullish perspective: → The long-term trend remains upward, as indicated by the moving average. → A successful breakout above 6,100 could turn this level into strong support, similar to how 5,660 acted previously. However, it is also possible that: → Powell’s remarks today will be more hawkish than expected. → The market may react negatively. → The price could make a bearish move, reinforcing the relevance of the downward channel (marked in red). Prepare for heightened market volatility this evening. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
S&P500 smashed every Resistance on its way to 6350.The S&P500 index (SPX) hit and rebounded today on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), following last week's break-out. This is the confirmed start of the technical Bullish Leg of the 6-month Channel Up along with the 1D MACD Bullish Cross. Having made a Higher Low on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) last Monday (January 13), we are expecting the standard 1.786 Fibonacci extension as the next Higher High of the pattern. That gives us a 6350 Target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 This is why 2025 will be Bullish.The S&P500 index (SPX) just hit its 1W MA25 (red trend-line) for the first time since the August 05 2024 Low (5 months ago). This is a major long-term Support trend-line, the first one out of a total three. As you can see on this chart, the index has been trading within a Channel Up on the log scale ever since the bottom of the 2008/09 Housing Crisis. During this pattern, it has gone through phases of strong and extended Bull where the 1W MA25 and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) offers the Support Zone and every test is a buy opportunity and when those break, the Bear phase starts, which finds Support on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), with the exception being of course the non-technical, once in 100 years event of the March 2020 COVID flash crash. It is now the 1W MA25 that comes as the first major Support level and with the 1W RSI forming the same kind of Channel Down divergence as early 2014, we expect further extension of the current Bull Phase into 2025. In fact, every Bull Cycle has either increased by roughly +100% or +62% and since the current one is way over +62%, it is fair to expect that it will pursue the +100% mark. That is currently exactly at 7000 and could be achieved by the end of 2025 as every previous Cycle Top was priced towards the end its year with a frequency of either 3 or 4 years. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
1
S&P 500 Index Drops to 2-Month LowS&P 500 Index Drops to 2-Month Low On Friday, the US unemployment data was released, as reported by ForexFactory: → The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%; → The number of new jobs (Non-Farm Employment Change) increased by 256,000 over the month, although analysts had forecast an increase of 164,000 (previous value = 212,000). According to Reuters, the strong labour market data strengthened the market participants' view that the Federal Reserve will be cautious in cutting interest rates in 2025. Based on CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders expect the Fed to reduce borrowing costs for the first time in June and then keep it at that level for the remainder of the year. Expectations that tight monetary policy will persist longer than usual have led to bearish sentiment. As a result, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) dropped below the 5,800 mark this morning, its lowest point since early November. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows: → A bearish Head and Shoulders (SHS) pattern is visible on the chart; → The price has broken below the median of the ascending channel (marked in blue). The strengthening bearish sentiment may lead to: → The price fluctuating within the descending channel, the boundaries of which are already visible (marked in red); → The median of this red channel currently acting as support. It is possible that the intensification of bearish sentiment will result in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) declining towards the 5,700 level, which may be reinforced by the proximity of the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
2
S&P500 no major pullbacks expected in 2025. Year-end Target 7200The S&P500 (SPX) has started the first week of the new year (2025) on a positive note following a red December. In fact December was only the 3rd red month of the whole 2024. Based on its 16-year Channel Up pattern, this bullish trend isn't expected to slowdown in 2025. In fact, no major pull-backs are expected this year, as the end sequence of 2024 resembles the August 2013, which led to a very bullish 18-month period after. As you can see, the start of the Channel Up, which was the bottom of the 2008 - 2009 U.S. Housing Crisis followed the same stages as the pattern after the March 2020 COVID bottom. The bottoms have been stage (a) with (b) being the first short-term pull-back and (c) the second, which was also a 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) test. It appears that we are currently on stage (d), where as explained led the way to a bullish 18-month period. The peak of the early Channel Up pattern was on the 2.786 Fibonacci extension from the stage (c) bottom and the 18-month period ended on the 1.382 time Fib extension. If we take the same measurements on the post COVID pattern, the 1.382 time Fib extension lands on October 2026. For 2025 alone we can expect a +23.73% rise from the last red candle of (d), if the post August 2013 12-month pattern is followed, which gives us an end-of-year (2025) Target of 7200. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
7
S&P500 First 4H Death Cross in 5 months! Is it bearish indeed?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a decline since Thursday and despite the thin holiday volume and less trading days, is a sign of weakness on the short-term. Especially having completed a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame on December 24. In fact, this is the first 4H Death Cross in 5 months (since July 29). During that sequence, the index was under heavy seasonal selling pressure but initially rose following the Death Cross. Soon after though it collapsed lower on bad macroeconomics. This time however, the trend turned bearish immediately after the Death Cross. The buy signal in August was the Aug 05 4H RSI Double Bottom. This time, the RSI has already started rising since yesterday. In our opinion, this suggests that the selling pressure by the 4H Death Cross is most likely over and we can technically see the new Bullish Leg of the 3-month Channel Up. The most common % rise these past few months has been +7.19%. If we count that from the recent December 20 Low, then we should be expecting a 6200 Target by late January - early February. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
S&P500 The new Bullish Leg has begun.The S&P500 index (SPX) has completed 4 straight green 1D candles, and is already trading above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. With its 1D RSI also reaching its MA (yellow trend-line), we view last Friday's candle as the new Higher Low at the bottom of the 4-month Channel Up. This pattern is so far highly symmetrical with each of the 2 completed Legs so far, following an a-b-c-d structure. Right now we are on step (a) that is the start of the Bullish Leg. Based on this model, we are expected to approach the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up on step (b) then make the mid-Leg pull-back to (c) and then resume the uptrend for the Bullish Leg's top on (d). We expect that to be on at least 6300, which is marginally below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, being the minimum level that each of the previous 2 Bullish Legs hit. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 entering a new Bull Cycle according to the Dollar IndexThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been rising aggressively since the October 2022 market bottom, as it recovered from the Inflation Crisis of 2022. Despite the All Time Highs (ATH) that it is currently trading at, we have strong evidence based on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that it is entering a new, more structured Bull Cycle. As you can see on this cross chart analysis on the 1W time-frame, the market has been on a multi-year uptrend with clear Phases, ever since the March 2009 bottom of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis. At the same time, the DXY (blue trend-line) initiated its own Channel Up. Every time the DXY bottomed, the S&P500 transitioned from the more aggressive, recovery phase (blue Arc pattern) of the Bear Cycle to a more structured (green) Channel Up. As long as the DXY remains below its (dashed) Lower Highs trend-line, the uptrend of the Channel Up is being extended. Once broken, the stock market starts to form a top, which is natural as a strong/ expensive dollar is far from ideal for buying risky assets like stocks. In any case, it appears that the DXY bottomed in late September 2024 and rebounded aggressively. This is rebound is the exact behavior it has when the previous two (green) Channel Up patterns started. As a result, we believe that the S&P500 has ahead of it around 4 years of growth within this Channel Up, whose pull-backs/ corrections will be the cyclical buy opportunities. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
S&P500 What will happen in 2025 and 2026 based on this pattern?The S&P500 index (SPX) has had an excellent run since the time (August 28, see chart below) we introduced the following piece of analysis on the similarities between the 2015 - 2017 fractal and today's 2022 - 2024: As you see, the index rose by around +8.50% from 5625 to 6100 in only 3.5 months. We are still expecting a local top just below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, with our Target in tact at 6500. If it continues to replicate the past pattern into the 2018 fractal as well, then we may experience the last correction of the Bull Cycle around March 2025 towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as it happened in February - March 2018 and then the final rally to a new All Time High (ATH) towards the end of the year (October - December 2025). What this pattern shows, and what we've presented to you as a possible scenario on previous analyses, is for a new Bear Cycle to begin in 2026, four years after the Inflation Crisis of 2022, that will once more test the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the market's long-term Support. As a side-note to investors, it is important to understand that corrections are cyclical and crises systemic. Long-term, multi-year patterns like this, help us understand with a certain degree of efficiency, when to enter and when to exit. Timing is at times (especially on such long-term horizons), more important than pricing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 This Inflation Cheatsheet shows no correction in 2025.This is a chart we first posted almost 4 months ago (August 14, see chart below) at the time of a CPI date release, where we viewed the S&P500 index (SPX) against Inflation (red trend-line) and calling for an immediate buy: ** The 1W MA50 as the ultimate Support ** Well the price jumped +11% since then from 5440 to over 6000. The first principle of this chart is that as long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting, investors should stay bullish. This is because all previous multi-year rallies since August 2011 that started within a Channel Up, ended upon a 1W candle close below the 1W MA50 and transitioned into a Megaphone pattern for the new Bear Phase. ** Declining Inflation fueling stocks ** Right now we are still on a declining Inflation trend, very similar to early 2014 (ellipse shape on Inflation), while the 1W RSI of SPX is declining inside a Channel Down. This is a Bearish Divergence, which during all previous SPX Channel Up patterns, didn't make the index top until the RSI broke below its 41.50 Support (notable exception of course the March 2020 COVID flash crash which was a one in 100 years Black Swan event). ** SPX Target and timing ** As a result, while the 1W RSI trades within its Channel Down and above 41.50 and all price candles close above the 1W MA50, we expect the index to extend the multi-year uptrend to 6900, which would represent a +95.84% rise from the October 2022 bottom, similar to the February 2015 High. Notice that the December 2021 top was also of a similar magnitude (+103%). As far as timing is concerned, we have calculated a model based on the 1W RSI top and the start of its Channel Down. As you see at that point, SPX always makes a medium-term pull-back (red Arc). This tends to be within the 0.382 - 0.618 time Fibonacci levels and on the 2011 - 2014 Bull Cycle, that was within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib zone. As a result, applying this principle on the current Bull Cycle, the trend is now just 2 months past the 0.618 time Fib and we can expect a Cycle Top around December 2025. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
S&P500 Don't expect the rally to stop now.Our last S&P500 (SPX) analysis (November 18, see chart below) gave us the ideal buy entry on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, with the price immediately responding with a rebound: The rebound took place on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and we are now even past the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite the strong uptrend, this rally is far from over technically, as not only is the 4H RSI below the (70.00) overbought barrier where it has given the first bearish signs near the two previous Higher Highs, but also significantly lower than the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the September 06 Channel Up. As a result we expect a continuation of the current Bullish Leg. The previous one peaked on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, so our Target is now just below it at 6150. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 completed a 0.5 Fib correction. Strong buy opportunity.The S&P500 index (SPX) reached on Friday the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, a technical correction that started after the price made a Higher High at the top of the 2-month Channel Up. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been tested (and held) already on the day of the U.S. elections, so now we are technically still on the new Bullish Leg of the pattern. As you can see, since the April 19 2024 bottom and the start of the even longer Bullish Megaphone pattern, every time a pull-back stopped within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib range, the index resumed the bullish trend towards the -0.618 Fib extension. The 1D MACD with its Bullish and Bearish Crosses, is also illustrating this symmetry. As a result, we believe that the current pull-back is over and we are now targeting 6210, which is within to potential -0.618 Fib targets. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
6
S&P500 Eyeing 6180 on this diverging Channel Up.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the July 27 2023 High. More recently it has been following a shorter (dotted) Channel Up since the August 05 2024 Low, which made its most recent Higher Low on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) the day before the U.S. elections. The rally that followed since, hit the top of the 1-year Channel Up but the current 2-day red streak may not be a rejection to the new Bearish Leg (red Channels) as the (dotted) diverging Channel Up is on its 2nd Bullish Leg. If it is similar in strength to the September - October one, then we expect to see 6180 short-term. As you can see, every Bullish Leg of the 1 year Channel Up has consisted of two smaller buy highly symmetric Bullish Legs, all of which look very similar with each other (black sequences). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
Can you envision S&P500 at 20k? This is why most investors fail!If you follow us through all those years then you know how fond we are of long-term patterns. Especially those of a multi-year perspective that can offer maximum reliability and as close to a flowless projection as it can get. The current chart (1M time-frame) on the S&P500 index (SPX) is no exception and you might be no strangers to it as we've published it on April 10 2024 (see chart below) when the price was still at 5200 (against 5700 now): That was at a time of high market uncertainty after a strong start to the year and as we were entering the bearish seasonality of Summer. This rise however should come as no surprise to those that can read charts and market behavior objectively. As we mentioned at the time, this is a long-term perspective that gives you the picture unfiltered with the facts only. What you see on this chart is S&P's Cycle Analysis on a century wide scale from the rally in 1921 that led to the Great Depression. Since that 'mother of all recessions', the stock market started to create a pattern of clear systemic behaviors. Each time there are fundamentals involved that merely serve as 'reasons/ excuses' to fill out and complete this pattern. ** Great Depression: 1st Bull Cycle ** Following the 1932 Great Depression bottom, the 1st Secular Bull Cycle begun, that lasted for 28.5 years (343 months) rising by +1888%. Then the Secular Bear Cycle started in the form of a Megaphone pattern. Its 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 2nd Low (the Cycle's bottom) was formed below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). ** Vietnam War to High Inflation: 2nd Bull Cycle ** The 2nd Secular Bull Cycle lasted for almost 26 years (311 months) and saw +2361% growth. As per our blueprint, the Secular Bear Cycle was initiated once the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) broke. Again the 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 and the 2nd Low below the 1M MA200. ** Post 2008 Housing Crisis: 3rd Bull Cycle ** With regards to the current Cycle, which is what most are interested at naturally, notice how the 1M MA50 has been supporting since late 2011. It emphatically held both on the September 2022 Low (Inflation crisis bottom) and the March 2020 Low (COVID crash bottom). This indicates again that as long as it supports, the Secular Bull Cycle will be extended. Based on the previous Cycle-to-Cycle parameters the model suggests that the current Cycle should be a little than 23 years long (279 months, i.e. 32 month shorter than the previous) and rise by +2834% (+473% higher than the previous). That gives us a rough target for the S&P500 of around 20000 estimated to take place by 2032! ** New updates: Price and Time Fibonacci levels ** What we've added on the current updated analysis relative to the on in April 2024, are the Fibonacci levels both on the x (time) and y (price) axis. As you can see, the S&P is currently exactly on the 0.618 Fib price axis and between the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis. That is a highly symmetric correlation with roughly the year 1992, right at the start of the Dotcom Bubble that led to the 2000 burst and subsequent crisis. The index was again on the 0.618 Fib price axis and within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis. ** Is A.I. the new Dotcom? ** It was the Internet Mania that accelerated the 1974 - 2000 Bull Cycle to its peak and this time it may be the A.I./ Blockchain/ Crypto etc Mania that may aggressively lead the current (2009 - 2032) Bull Cycle to the next Great Recession. Note that just like the Internet didn't go away because of a mere act of amazing greed (the Dotcom Bubble) but instead served as the backbone of the Age of Information and a new Economy (e-commerce, social media, digital investing etc), the A.I. Bubble that has started fueling the market since 2023 shouldn't be demonized when it pops and in our opinion won't go away but instead serve as the backbone of the next Age of Reality and Commerce (metaverse, augmented reality, robotics, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles etc). It has to be said, that the current Bull Cycle is much more similar to the 1974 - 2000 one than the 1932 - 1965, which understandable as neither banking or trading was that evolved or matured as it got with the financial engineering of the 80s and beyond. ** Conclusion ** In any case and as we are concluding this publications, all the above projections based on this 'Cyclical blueprint' may be speculation theoretically but trends that keep repeating themselves over the decades are not. Technically those patterns filter out all news, fundamentals, geopolitical, macroeconomical noise and give rise to a pure behavioral perspective, the essence of traditional Economics. So based on that model, are you also expecting to see 20000 in 8 years time? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
28
S&P500 Bottom expected this week.New bull phase to 6500 startingThe S&P500 index (SPX) has a red 1W candle last week, its first after 6 straight green. This was a much needed technical correction on a rally that has been holding since the August 05 low, while on the longer term it's part of a Channel Up that since last October (2023), hence a year ago, is being supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). We've identified a similar pattern, essentially an identical price action that started after the March 2020 COVID bottom and extended all the way to the November 2021 peak. It appears that relative to that Channel Up pattern, we are about to complete this week step (e), which on May 17 2021, it priced the 2nd straight red week and then resumed the uptrend. Technically, as long as the 1W MA50 holds, we remain inside a Bull Phase. The symmetry between the two fractals is striking, both have ascended by +43.46% up to step (e). If this symmetry continues all the way to the top, then that could be at a +62.37% rise from the Channel's bottom. As a result, this gives us a 6500 Target (at least) by Q2 2025. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
S&P500 Has it topped?The S&P500 index (SPX) is ahead of critical crossroads for the short-term as the Bullish Megaphone pattern that is in effect since April 01, is showing strong signs of topping. Even though the price isn't on the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Megaphone, the 1D MACD formed a Bearish Cross today and practically is repeating the sequence of the index' previous Leg from April 19 to July 17, which ended also on a MACD Bearish Cross. As you can see besides the Bearish Cross, even the price action between the two fractals has gone through very similar phases. The current Bullish Leg is in the form of a Rising Wedge. Despite the Bearish Cross, the trend remains bullish within this pattern until the Wedge's bottom breaks. As a result, it is more likely to see at least 6000 next. If however the price breaks below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we will have a confirmed sell signal at hand, based on which we will short and target 5600. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
S&P500 If it holds this level, it can rise up to 6050.The S&P500 index (SPX) had a strong short-term pull-back yesterday, which is so far contained within the tight levels of a Channel Up pattern. The price is right at the bottom of it and if it holds, we can expect a strong rally continuation for the next 2 weeks, going into the U.S. elections. This sequence is so far similar to the previous Channel Up patterns that emerged after the price broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Once broken, it held right until their tops, which were after a +6.50% rise. This is why, if this holds once more, we expect to see 6050 (+6.50% from the bottom) by the end of the month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Consolidation almost over. Prepare for 6300 end of year.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been consolidating for roughly the past 3 weeks, significantly above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which indicates that the long-term trend is not in danger. In fact, we believe that it has already entered a Channel Up structure, similar to November 2023 - March 2024. As you can see, in late November 2023 the index was also consolidating way above its 1D MA50 after a strong recovery from a -10.90% correction. This time the consolidation is exactly at the top of the previous High while then it was exactly below it. The 1D CCI sequences between the two fractals show that we are on the exact same position, posting bearish divergencies on the price's consolidation. As a result, we expect a smooth Channel Up expansion towards the end of the year (quick exception the natural volatility around the U.S. elections day) and our Target is 6300, which is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
7
S&P500 Fractal from 2019 points to a 6100 rally.The S&P500 (SPX) is absorbing all the negative news on the recent geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and could post its first red week after a streak of three green 1W candles. This shouldn't however make us lose our long-term perspective and a fractal from 2018 - 2020 comes to remind us why. As you can see, the 1W RSI sequence from July 24 2023 until now, is quite similar to the one from October 01 2018 - September 30 2019. The price actions between the two fractals are also similar. Both started with a bottom on (or near) the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and transitioned into a Bullish Megaphone. After the September 30 2019 Low, the index resumed the uptrend within a (green) Channel Up, which extended higher up until the COVID crash, which is of course a 1-in-100 year Black Swan event that couldn't have been predicted. If it weren't for that, the market would have at best tested the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for new buyers and then extended the bullish trend like it did after June 2020. In any case, we expect a similar behavior with a bullish continuation of +25.50% from the last Low (-3% lower like the 2019 rise was from its previous Bullish Leg). This gives us an end-of-year Target around 6100. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
S&P500 This rally isn't even halfway there!Last time we plotted the S&P500 index (SPX) against the Volatility Index (VIX) was almost a year ago (November 07 2023, see chart below) and that helped as catch a more than +20% rise: This time, the two assets who are on a negative correlation don't trade on exactly opposite patterns. The S&P500 has been trading within a Channel Up for almost 1 year (since the October 30 2023 Low), while VIX is on a (wide) range with a clear Support Zone and peaks within a 22.00 - 24.00 Resistance Zone, with the exception of the early August rise that spiked above it (recession fears). Naturally, VIX's spikes and rejections (red circles) are SPX's bottoms and reversals (green circles). The blue circles that are bottoms for VIX inside its Support Zone are mid rally consolidations on the S&P500. This indicates that even when the Volatility bottoms and starts rising, the market is still in euphoria and it takes another half rally before it realizes that an aggressive volatility spike is coming. This can be particularly helpful in determining how long we still have to keep buying. Based on VIX's current position (ellipse shape), we are on the consolidation phase before the Support Zone test. Which means that we aren't even halfway through SPX's Bullish Leg. We expect that to be around mid to end of October, just before the U.S. elections to come up as a needed correction. As a result, we are expecting an end-of-year price at around 6200. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 Powell gave what the market wanted. Rally up to mid-2025?Chair Powell went out and did it yesterday as the Fed didn't just cut the Interest Rates yesterday for the first time since March 2020, but did so by -0.50%, giving the market what it so desperately wanted. The question now on everyone's mind is this: is this what the market needed to extend the 2023 - 2024 rally? Fundamentally of course the cuts is a strong reason and as for the technical part we will let an old analysis of ours (last updated May 16, see chart below): As you can see, we published that at a time when there were again voices over an extended correction due to April's strong red candle. What happened instead? The S&P500 (SPX) posted 4 straight green months (not including September). Once again we present to you this chart, to help everyone maintain a healthy long-term perspective. Wide, long-term time-frames like 1W or 1M (such as the current one) succeed at filtering out the short-term noise caused by volatility, news etc. As you can see on this chart, which we named "The Ultimate stock market cheat sheet", the index goes through very distinct market through roughly the past 20 years. More specifically, since the 2007/08 Housing Crisis, there is a very consistent pattern and the Sine Waves display perfectly that frequency. The first observation is that there is a rough frequency when the S&P500 tops every 3.5 years. In this time-span of 42 months (3.5 years) the index either hits a High or already has and is on a minor decline before a stronger correction comes, which is always within the technical standards of pull-backs within a greater Bull Cycle expansion. Roughly also, the sell signal is given after the 1M RSI breaks below its MA (yellow trend-line) having previously been on overbought territory (above 70.00). Once the index hits the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) again, usually a year at most after the Sine Wave top, the most optimal long-term buy signal emerges again. Investors who have applied this strategy/ principle since 2009, have had a total of 5 excellent buy opportunities for tremendous gains at the lowest possible risk. In conclusion, the market still has almost another year (roughly), until a sell signal emerges (July 2025). In our opinion, having always a low risk profile in our investments, it is advisable to be off stocks before that date just to be on the safe side. The important outcome of this finding, however, is that investors can continue feel safe buying for several more months, especially after the Fed gave a strong excuse to do so. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
S&P500 just needs to recover the 1D MA50.The S&P500 recovered yesterday a great deal of Friday's losses but still that wasn't enough to reclaim the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which was lost as the short-term Support level. As you realize, this is the key in order to resume and sustain the uptrend that started after the August 05 rebound near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The long-term pattern is a Channel Up and even before that since late 2022 and the bottom of the Inflation Crisis, the index only once corrected below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (the October 27 2023 Low). We mention that because Friday's decline stopped exactly on the 0.5 Fib. Every rise that followed until the next correction, reached at least +10.50% from the 0.5 Fib. As a result, once the index reclaims the 1D MA50, we will buy and set the next medium-term Target at 5950 (+10.50% from the 0.5 Fib). Notice also that yesterday's rebound was made exactly on the 1D RSI's Symmetrical Support, a level that initiated the December 19 2022 rebound. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot