S&P500 FIrst time in 2 weeks to hit the 4H MA50The S&P500 index (SPX) has extended its rise since our buy call 21 days ago:
The price is at the moment on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 28. The Higher Lows trend-line below offers an additional Support level, with the last resort being the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) below, in case the 4H RSI breaks towards the Green Zone. Regardless of this minor technical pull-back, our Target remains 4190 just below the Resistance (February 02 High), with the Higher High extension of the Channel Up showing potential for even 4250.
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Standardandpoors500
S&P500 Short-term pull-back possible but bullish target intactThe S&P500 has extended its rise since our buy call 11 days ago:
We are slightly modifying the technical parameters within this Channel Up that started back in November as the 1D RSI broke above its 3-week Resistance and on the previous bottom fractal of late December/ early January that translated into a price Resistance rejection and pull-back short-term to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. From the current 4080 Resistance, the 0.5 Fib is at 3945.
This doesn't negate our long-term outlook, which is bullish towards a new Higher High within this Channel Up. Our target is for safety at 4190 (below the 4195 Resistance), but the technical wave can extend as high as +11.00% from the bottom (as the previous two Higher High waves did) and hit 4230.
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S&P500 Buy without fear. Bull not over until 2030.This is not the first time we look into the S&P500 (SPX) from a multi-decade perspective. Every time we look into the Cycles since the Great Depression we bring an additional element to the table. This time we break down parts of those Cycles even more and look into the RSI as well. This analysis will attempt to shed light into the doubt of, perhaps the majority of the market, whether or not stocks are out of the 2022 correction.
** Bear and Bull Cycles **
As you see since 2029 and the Great Depression, the index has formed three Bear and three Bull Cycles. We are currently on Bull Cycle 3. When the price breaks above the Bear Cycle Top, the Phase 1 of the Bull Cycle starts and has historically lasted 85-89 months (ends with the first major correction). Phase 2 (orange Rectangle) which starts straight after and ends on the second major correction, lasts within 31 - 35 months. Phase 2 typically ends around the middle of the Bull Cycle.
** The RSI recurring patterns **
Besides the above Cyclical symmetry, the 1M RSI has been extremely consistent throughout these Cycles. As shown, the Bear Cycle Bottom breaks well below the 30.00 barrier and touches 20.00 (extremely oversold conditions). The Bull Phases 1 and 2 are formed while the RSI is on Lower Lows.
** Conclusion **
From the above characteristics and parameters, we can easily draw the conclusion that the 2022 correction was Phase 2 of the Bull Cycle and we won't be seeing its bottom in a very long time. More specifically not before 2031, as Bull Cycles 1 and 2 formed their Tops a little after Fibonacci 2.5 time extension. On Bull Cycle 3 (current) this is on January 2031.
This is in our opinion the ultimate S&P500 cheat-sheet and the reason you may invest with no fear. What do you think?
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S&P500 is pricing the new Low of the bullish leg.The S&P500 (SPX) hit today the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again and the Higher Lows since the March 13 bottom. That was a bottom on the 5-month Channel Up and the best buy opportunity on a 1 month time-frame.
With the 4H RSI sequence similar to the Higher Lows of the previous bullish leg in late December/ early January, we see SPX attempting to price the new Low. This is a new buy opportunity. Our long-term target of 4190 is intact.
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S&P500 Buy the 4hour MA50 pullbackThe S&P500 failed to close over the 4hour MA200 and is pulling back to the 4hour MA50.
Buy this pull back as it is not only near the 0.5 Fibonacci level but also the Cup pattern's Support.
Target Resistance A at 4080.
Previous chart:
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S&P500 Best buy signal since early January.The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a 1 week rebound following the March 13 Low which was made on Support Zone 2 and is so far on the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up. All candles have closed inside this pattern and as you see so far every bearish and bullish wave follows similar structure as the previous one.
We are near the best buy signal since January 06 as the 1D MACD is above to form a Bullish Cross. Our short-term target is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and medium-term 4190 (near Resistance).
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S&P500 is a perfect buy here long-term in this Cup pattern.The S&P500 is on a medium-term correction following the February 02 rejection just below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). The long-term pattern is a Cup formation and the price is approaching its buy Zone.
Right now though it sits on the Higher Lows trend-line that has formed the medium-term Channel Up and is an ideal buy for the long-term, with limited downside. The 1D RSI is on the December Support and if the perfect symmetry with the downtrend of the Bear Cycle holds, it means it is on an the inverse path of February 22 - June 16 2022.
There are obvious Resistance Zones within the Cup pattern, while also the Fibonacci retracement levels align very well. Buy and target next the 0.618 Fib and the bottom of Resistance Zone 2 at 4300. That is marginally below the August 16 High.
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S&P500 Perfectly following the long-term planIt is more than a week ago that we called the exact bottom buy on the S&P500 (SPX) index:
Our first target (4050) has been hit and the 'Powell pull-back' is giving us a new opportunity to enter. As you seethe 1D RSI rebounded exceptionally on the Support provided by the December 19 Low and what's left now is only for the 1D MACD to make a Bullish Cross and solidify the new bullish wave to the new Higher High of the Channel Up.
The previous rise topped on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, so Target 1 now is 4170. If then we close above the 4,195 Resistance, we will take one final short-term buy targeting 4250 (Target 2).
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S&P500 The huge Inverse H&S has started and its target is 4700!Last week we have made clear our short/ medium-term view on the S&P500 (SPX), calling a buy on the exact bottom of the Channel Up:
It is time to look again, as we normally do on a monthly basis, on the bigger picture, looking at the 2D time-frame. The Channel Up is clear and so is the Resistance on the 2D MA200 (orange trend-line) which formed the previous High in February. The rebound was achieved exactly on the 2D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The long-term pattern that stands out is the huge Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) whose head was the bottom of the Bear Cycle, which after breaking its Lower Highs trend-line completed the Right Shoulder. Technically this suggests that the price should now begin its rise to its usual target. That is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level and is exactly on the $4700 mark.
The Fibonacci retracement levels from the Top-Bottom of the Bear Cycle have so far matched Support and Resistance levels with high accuracy, so keep those in mind for the next immediate High, e.g. on the 0.618 Fib at 4315, which is also almost the August 15 2022 High.
The STOCH RSI is just coming off a Bullish Cross, indicating that we are just at the start of a new rally.
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S&P500 bouncing on the Bear-Bull market separator. Strong buy.The S&P500 isn't only supported this week on the 1day MA200 but also hit the Pivot line that separates the Bear from the Bull market.
During the 2022 Bear market it was a Resistance, keeping all price action below it, having it total 6 rejections.
This is the first time it is being tested from above as a Support.
With a Channel Up having emerged as the pattern that is guiding the S&P500 into the new Bull Cycle, the RSI is on a flat Support, similar to what it did on June 16th 2022. A massive rally followed.
Our Target is 4300 (under Resistance A).
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S&P500 Bottom by tomorrow, slow 2-week recovery after.The S&P500 index (SPX) is trading between its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) ad the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the November 03 Low is attempting to price its new Lower High.
Based on the symmetry provided by the 1D RSI that is on the 39.00 Support (Dec 19 and Dec 28 Double Bottom), the 1D MACD and and 4H Death Cross (February 27 and December 19), the current sequence is extremely similar with the December 19 - 22 bottom fractal. That was basically the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The 4H MA50 (green trend-line) is about to cross tomorrow below the 1D MA50 and that marked the exact previous bottom on December 22.
As a result, this is the most optimal long-term buy level, and we are targeting initially at 4050 (middle of the Channel Up) and 4250 (just below the Higher Highs trend-line) in extension.
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S&P500 Approaching its new long-term bottomOn our last week analysis for the S&P500 Index (SPX) we called for the start of the correction within this long-term Channel Up pattern:
As you see the timing was spot on and the price broke below both the middle of the Channel Up and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Along with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), the latter is close to forming a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame, which is a bearish pattern. The last time this was formed was on December 19 2022 and it was the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern.
The 1D RSI is already reversing, though the 1D MACD shows there might still be a few days left before bottoming. On an R/R basis, the risk is low buying on the 4H Death Cross formation, and this is what we will do, getting the most optimal long-term buy entry. Our first target is the middle of the Channel Up (4050) and upon a 4H MA200 re-test as Support, the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel as an extension (4250).
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S&P500 Two buy entries for the long termThe S&P500 has been inside a Channel Up ever since the October 13th market bottom.
Even though it didn't make a proper Higher High in February, the recent correction is still contained inside the Channel Up.
The MA50 1D is holding. If the price makes a closing under it, the Rising Support assumes controls of the trend and becomes the prevailing pattern.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy now as long as the price is closing over the MA50 1D.
2. If it closes below, buy on the Rising Support.
Targets:
1. 4140 (under Resistance Zone A) and 4300 if the price closes above Resistance Zone A.
2. 4300 (representing a +11.35% rise from the Rising Support, which is a price range delivered in both previous rebounds on this Rising Support). Also under Resistance B.
Tips:
1. The MACD 1D shows that there is still room to fall before finding a Support, enhancing Scenario 2. Lower risk buy after it makes a Buy Cross.
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S&P500 pulling back. Those are the levels to sell/ buy.The S&P500 index (SPX) is pulling back after making a medium-term top on February 02. This isn't yet a Higher High on the Channel Up that started on the October 13 market bottom but it is a Higher High on the Diverging Higher High (light blue) that started on November 03.
Keep in mind that the October Channel Up is what helped us take the accurate buy exactly on its bottom 3 weeks ago:
With the 1D MACD making a Bearish Cross, the last time it formed one was on December 05, straight after the Dec 01 Higher High. That fractal sell initially bounced off Support Zone 1 that was formed from the last Higher Low before the top and then after breaking below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it rebounded just before hitting Support Zone 2 (formed by the first Higher Low of the sequence).
On the current price action, Support Zone 1 fits perfectly above the bottom of the October Channel Up, while Support Zone 2 is at the bottom of the November Diverging Channel Up. Of course the long-term confirmation would come after the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross but we will attempt one tight stop buy on Support Zone 1 and the last on Support Zone 2. In both cases we are targeting the 4195 Resistance and if broken the 4325 August 15 High.
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S&P500 Has it bottomed beyond any doubt?Two weeks ago the S&P500 index (SPX) closed above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of April 04 2022. Last week it tested the 1W MA50 as a Support, successfully held it and rebounded. If it wasn't for the rejection just below the 1W MA100, we would talk about the perfect break-out.
Still however this is a nearly perfect recovery:
a) The dominant pattern was an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), which practically formed the bottom of the Bear Cycle, rebounding on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
b) The 1W RSI started rising on Higher Lows, while the price was on Lower Lows, waving a huge bullish divergence.
Interestingly, we've seen the very same IH&S pattern and RSI Bullish Divergence during both of the last major Bear Cycles, the 2008/09 Housing Crisis and 2001/02 Dotcom crash. Common feature of those two is that after the index closed above the 1W MA50, it formed a Channel Up (green pattern) that led it straight to the 1W MA200. This time the 1W MA200 is a Support, but there is the Resistance of previous Lower High to consider. And that is at 4640. Valid target in our opinion by the end of Q3 if this Channel Up is materialized.
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S&P500: Rejected on 2month Resistance.The S&P500 index got rejected on Friday marginally under the R1 Zone (4,100 - 4,140) and is pullig-back having turned the 4H time frame neutral (RSI = 54.304, MACD = 15.240, ADX = 18.708). As we discussed previously, we are following the December fractal for direction. There was a Double Top rejection on R1 during December and when it broke under the 4H MA200, the price visited the S1 Zone.
Consequently, a potential crossing under the 4H MA200 will be a bearish signal (TP = 3,800) and a crossing above 4,150 (R1 top) will be a bullish signal (TP = 4,330).
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S&P500 against VIX showing some bumpy road aheadThis is the S&P500 index (SPX) against the Volatility Index (VIX). We've charted VIX's Cycles since June 2020 where the bottoms are in essence alarms and signals to be on the look out to sell and take profits on stocks while the tops are buy signals to enter the market.
Based on that model, VIX appears to be entering the rising curve, meaning that a sell alarm is starting to ring. Given the fact that the price is approaching a Resistance level where it was rejected two times already, we may see a decent drop. If the drop isn't delivered and it was just the two day quick pull-back of January 18/19, then the Cycle pattern may start to invalidate the strong drops of the Bear Cycle and instead mimic the blue-print of the 2020 - 2021 small pull-backs. That would indicate that the Bear Cycle is over and that S&P500 has officially entered the new Bull Cycle.
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S&P500 Last hurdle but forming a 1D Golden CrossThe S&P500 index (SPX) broke above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the second time during the start of the Bear Cycle in January 2022 and the first after December 12 2022. For the past three days it is being rejected there, which makes it a strong Resistance, along with the 'Prior Lower High', which is the level we pointed out last week on our SPX report:
As you see the price followed the buy call at the bottom of the Channel Up flawlessly but now faces the 'Prior Lower High'. Until it breaks it, we are good to sell with a tight SL targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That trend-line just hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and are about to form the first 1D Golden Cross since July 09 2020. As a result, we are bullish long-term, targeting the Resistance Zone and if 4145 breaks, the August 16 2022 High at 4325.
We will only short-term sell if the index closes below the Channel Up and target 3800 (top of Support Zone 1) and if 3760 breaks target 3710 (top of Support Zone 2).
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S&P500 Following 100% the plan. Now pricing a bottom.The S&P500 index followed our last projection we made on January 04 as after it held the Higher Lows of the October Channel Up, it rose substantially and got rejected on the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line (January 04 2022 trend-line):
This happened because it failed to close a 1D candle above this huge Bear Cycle Resistance, same it did on December 01 and December 13. This time however the 1D MACD shows that we are closer to the new long-term bottom than ever as it follows the October Bullish Cross to Bearish Cross sequence on a tight time-window. Adding the fact that again the price is near the bottom (Higher Lows) of the Channel Up, we see a hold here more likely and immediate retest of the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs.
As mentioned in previous publications, we ideally want to see SPX close above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), something it failed to do on the December 13 rejection. In that case, we will buy with a short-term target the top of the Resistance Zone (4140). For long-term buying we need to see the index close above the middle of the Channel Up.
On the other hand, if we close a candle below the Channel Up first, we will instead sell and target on the short-term the top of Support Zone 1 (3800) and under conditions that we will analyze if the bearish scenario prevails, the top of Support Zone 2 (3705).
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S&P500 may be on the verge of a mega rally based on the US02YThe chart represents the US02Y on the 1W time-frame against the S&P500 index (green trend-line). The phase that the US02Y has entered is similar to that in entered in December 1994. As you see shortly after a Golden Cross, it made a Lower High on the RSI, flashing a Bearish Divergence, while the MACD Double Topped. This is exactly the same sequence of events in the exact same order since the June 2022 Golden Cross.
The US02Y fall of December 1994 practically started S&P's mega rally of mid-late 90s that led to the 2000 Dotcom Bubble. If history is repeated, instead of a continuation of the Bear Market that most expect, S&P500 my be on the verge of a new multi-year Bull Cycle.
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S&P500 Approaching the most important Bull levelThe S&P500 index (SPX) eventually held the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up, as we outlined on our December 29 idea, and it testing today yet again the Lower Highs trend-line since January 04 2022:
That level has only broken once on the December 13 fake-out, same with the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which is trending parallel to it. With the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200 (blue and orange trend-lines respectively) about to form a Golden Cross, the likelihood of a bullish break-out above the 1W MA50 becomes greater. However, it needs to break above the 4055 Prior Lower High level, which is something it failed to do in September, in order to confirm the extension of the uptrend.
Above that level, we will short-term target the Resistance Zone but only above the 4145 top can we expect a Channel Up Higher High at 4300. On the other hand, a 1D candle closing below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up, would target the 3700 Support Zone.
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S&P500: Near the top of the Bear Market ResistanceThe S&P500 is under high volatility at the moment after the CPI report matched the forecast (6.5%). The index is trading inside a Channel Up, above both the 4H MA200 and 4H MA50, with the two close to forming a Golden Cross. With most 4H technicals overbought (RSI = 70.997, MACD = 30.350, ADX = 39.740) and the price approaching the Lower Highs Resistance that is in place for a whole year (only had the fake-out break on December 13th), the index is increasing turning into a sell opportunity.
Below the Channel Up and the 4H MA200, it is a short-term short to Fibonacci 0.618 (3,870). Validated/ confirmed buying at this point is only above the 1W MA50. From a fundamental perspective, it is the continuous drop on the US10Y, that is favoring capital going to riskier assets like stock. Keep an eye for a possible low there and reversal, for validation of the sell thesis on S&P500. But if bond yields continue to fall, the equity rally will be extended and a weekly close above the 1W MA50 should set S&P500 back into the new Bull Cycle.
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S&P500 Can this divergence from 2008 and 2001 save the day?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up as we showed on our last analysis, struggling to break above its 1D MA50:
On the current analysis, we switch back to the longer-term dynamics and compare the 2022/23 correction (so far) to the previous Bear Cycles of 2008/09 and 2001/02, using the parameters of Inflation (red trend-line) and WTI Oil (black trend-line).
At the moment, the S&P500 is above its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1W RSI on Higher Lows, within an Ascending Triangle pattern since the May 16 Low. This can make all the difference during the current inflation crisis. The reason is that this pattern is different from the 1W RSI Higher Lows within a Falling Wedge of 2008/09 and just the Lower Highs of 2001/02.
As you see in 2008, the index was supported on the 1W MA200 as well and posted a counter-trend rally before eventually breaking it, and the break below the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line), practically opened the way for the more violent second part of the Bear Cycle. Same with 2001 where however the 1W MA200 didn't have as a significant role.
Inflation in all cases started to drop significantly after the Bear Cycle started, Oil seems to precede/ lead this fall, and (Oil's) current structure looks more like that (bottom fractal) of January 2009 and January 2002. Mere coincidence that we are now in January 2022?
Right now both the 1W RSI structure as well as the candles are different than before, being evidently slightly more bullish (so far). Can this RSI bullish divergence be enough to keep S&P500 above the 1W MA200 and start to rise to its first Higher High, effectively invalidating the Bear Cycle or history will repeat itself with another violent break below the 1W MA300?
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