AUDUSD: Longer term charts might indicate a downtrendThere's a discrepancy between timeframes in $AUDUSD, with the daily recently turning into a downtrend, after suggesting buying dips was viable all year; the weekly in an uptrend, and close to fail to confirm bearish momentum within 2 weeks; and the monthly indicating a full flung downtrend is en route, and it should eventually achieve the 0.63111 mark by or before the end of December 2017.
In the short term, the daily chart despite indicating bears are in control, might indicate a retracement or sideways consolidation is about to start, specially viable after we hit the second target, and/or when time for the daily downtrend runs out by January 3rd.
RgMov warns you in the daily, if you wish to go long to catch a retracement, because price might just go sideways, chopping buyers and sellers out for a while, so it will be easier to take the sell side only, either after an overbought rally in the daily, or after a sideways consolidation ends.
(I prefer to do nothing for now, but, if you're interested in going long, you can try to buy a new daily high, risking a drop under last week's low)
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie
Steel
$AKS 161216C$10.50 BTO Calls@market open 121216 +161223C$12.00- Been swinging Call Options on AKS since week end 11616; Purchased 4 Calls (Strike Price 10.50) on the Market Open Monday AM w/ a Limit Order price of .29.
- Averaged down w/ purchase of 6 more Contracts the following day w/ Lower Low (Consolidation) being set in @ limit price of .15. Held position - FED Hike in hopes of a Market/Metals Rally to no avail.
- Holding 10 Call Contracts Avg. Price of .22 per and looking to match the gains failed to realize pre-hike at the least.
- Looking to sell to Close the contracts on or near loss of 10, 20, 100 period MA w/ the 30 minute Chart Setup.
- Do Believe After Hours activity will have all 3; including the EMA 4 & 8 period Moving Averages as support on the open.
- If the 4period EMA has not crossed the 8 period EMA to the Upside; I will look to hold position until it does.
- Slight chance on the 30 Minute Chart of a 50 period and 200 period Golden Cross(I believe so anyways); but WILL not Hold thru Friday 12/16/16 in hopes of seeing additional gains should it not occur Thursday 12/15/16.
- Trade setup for following week or upon Total Gains >= 400% put in place w/ weakness following FED Hike and possible profit taking from medium/long term traders:
- In lieu of adding more contracts to this weeks position, purchased a total of 10 Call Contracts w/ - AKS w/ a $12 Strike Price expiring 122316 for a .08 per. If further weakness occurs - End of Week, willing to add but ONLY if it AVG. Down my Call Contract prices (.09 after commission). As stated previously have been swinging, successfully mostly, this Ticker since one week following the election, along w/ AMD, CLF, VALE, RYI, FCX.
So You Want To Buy $X Do You? Don't Pull The Trigger Until ThisOver the last few days, shares of United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) have finally started to pull back. This coming after a surge from $17 to $39 in just over a month. That is a whopping 130% move in the stock. The stock has already fallen almost 13% off its recent highs, but investors should not be rushing to buy. Based on multiple calculations, the stock will continue to sell off over the next month or two, falling to a buy target of $27.65. At this price, U.S Steel Corp finally becomes an attractive buy and will have retraced approximately 50% of the move up. Aggressive investors can be short the stock on the move down, but expect a lot of chop. Safe investors should wait patiently for the buy level to hit.
Steel Goes HigherElliot Wave as per graph. Nearing the end of Wave III. The final Value will be more than 280 before end of March 2017.
AUDUSD: Monthly range expansions show sellers get trapped higherLooking at monthly ranges, we see that months with sharp selloffs, that surpass the previous true range, as measured from the open to the low, have been causing sellers to get trapped at increasingly higher prices. This is bullish and shows accumulation, and shakeouts taking place. The monthly chart shows a mode near the highs, and now we're testing support at the bottom of the monthly range, so we have a great opportunity on the long side, after the market got extremely one sided.
Sellers might get trapped here again, this time higher than the previous range expansion months, which is bullish overall. Daily and weekly RgMov readings are bullish, and we have massive lag relative to copper and iron ore, which eventually will play out, so I remain bullish.
The entry to add to longs is described in my 4h chart, see related ideas for more information.
Keep these levels in mind, once above, they act as support on a retest.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
STLD: Massive uptrend in steel comingSTLD's chart is massively bullish, the same as copper, iron ore futures, AUDUSD, and other correlated instruments. The setup here confirmed some time ago, but it's relevant as an analysis piece now. Most people are bearish on equities but I believe we're seeing the bottom here, or very close. Rising commodity prices seem likely going forward as well, which will benefit the AUDUSD bulls like me.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
EWA: Australia is a longThe trend is now up, and we have a weekly 'Time at mode' signal pointing to 22.59 as the target.
Risk is a drop under 19.37. You can buy dips, or speculate on copper, or on FXA or AUDUSD as well.
Steel/Iron ore is also looking great, which makes this a sure buy.
Shares of X or STLD would be a nice buy as well.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
US Steel and other metals appearing attractive to buyI'm looking for weakness in metals and miners, ( silver, gold, and steel) to buy calls on, and feel that market uncertainty might create a resumed flight to metal -- Interestingly, steel is the most attractive metal play technically at this instant for me. Silver, gold, and miners are also looking more attractive, but need a little more time to resolve, imo. I'm expecting some chop on everything...
Trading View won't allow me to tag US Steel, symbol "X" (tags must be more than one character long) but this is my preferred LONG play based strictly on my charting perspective, and disallowing all pundit diatribe...
Silver has consolidated, and broken outSilver has consolidated nicely since July, and is now on a break-out path to the upside. Very nice POSITIVE technical energy supports the move. There should not be any problem for Silver to exceed its previous highs. Gold, steel, and miners will consolidate and move up as well, imo.
SPX500 Breaks Free of Arc ResistanceThings are going to get really interesting with the market indices now... I'm looking for weakness in metals and miners, (silver, gold, and steel) to buy calls on, but will avoid playing options on any indices at this time, given how truly squirrely the casino is getting... Some things will always go up while some things will always go down. I feel that market uncertainty might create a resumed flight to metal -- Steel, in my view, is actually the most attractive technical play at this instant for me, with steel taking gold, silver taking silver, and gold taking bronze... wait.. what? :)
Trading View won't allow me to tag US Steel, symbol "X" (tags must be more than one character long) But that is my preferred LONG play at this time for the most rapid gains in profit.