Steel
Steel Dynamics is overbought according to thisBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 85.6795.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 84.85 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.103% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.89% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 8.016% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 36 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
$X : Is Steel Ready For a Fall or Breakup?It appears Steel has reached an area of overhead resistance and at a quick glance one may assume it's ready for a break after temporary sector distortions due to covid and supply issues that plagued many sectors. We also know there are pressures from "cost inflation" as well that plague mines, as well as builders but it seems too early to tell if price will turn around and head down, fairly, quickly, or will these pressures in supply force prices upward.
It's also been suggested there is enough supply overhead despite, "sheet mills in North America relying heavily on the low phosphorus pig iron from Ukraine and Russia", according to industry publication the Steel Market Update. Russia and Ukraine’s pig iron supplies account for 60% of US imports.
Prices for steel have been falling since the fourth quarter of last year as supply exceeded demand, according to Axel Eggert from the European Steel Association. If supply exceeds demand, it's a no-brainer, however, there's this below:
“Ongoing supply chain disruptions, skyrocketing energy and carbon prices, as well as persisting inflation are putting the recovery of the steel sector at risk. Combined with the current EU climate and energy policies, these are the ingredients of a dangerous cocktail that may drive Europe into a structural crisis and industry out of Europe."
There's a push and pull of we have enough vs we won't have enough because of a, b and c. It's too early to tell. Need to just watch price as that will be the canary in the coal mine. :)
MT: WATCH FOR BREAK OUTArcelorMittal, one of the major steel producers.
This is the weekly chart. After a big double bottom , MT is back at historical resistance around 30-31.
I would watch that level and enter a long swing trade if it breaks 31.
First target would be 40.
Most analysts rate this as a buy with a target at 50.
Trade safe.
X (United States Steel) - Bearish Double Top & Momentum - DailyX (United States Steel Corporation) stock price has double-topped below $38.57. Bearish momentum (MACD) has down-crossed on a daily time frame.
Entry (short): $37.25
Profit Target +12% (exit): $32.76
Stop Loss -6% (exit): $39.49
Utilize stop loss, profit targets, position sizing, and risk management.
Note: Many stocks and ETFs have already rallied up for the past two weeks, signs of price potentially topping out have formed.
XLB (Materials sector ETF) price has also reached a Resistance Zone and could possibly pull back to the downside.
All content is Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Will Red Hot STLD Cool Off?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 25, 2022 with a closing price of 89.32.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 88.46 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.053% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.824% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 7.606% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 9 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 36 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
3/20/22 RSReliance Steel & Aluminum Co. ( NYSE:RS )
Sector: Non-Energy Minerals (Steel)
Market Capitalization: $11.816B
Current Price: $191.50
Breakout price: $192.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $187.50-$181.50
Price Target: $209.20-$210.90
Estimated Duration to Target: 68-70d
Contract of Interest: $RS 6/17/22 195c
Trade price as of publish date: $11.30/contract
Steel in strong high-quality trend: use as "higher TF"Strong trend. Can serve as the "higher TF" for smaller TF trades.
POI's:
Steel broke out from downtrend
POC is supporting the main uptrend.
If already long on the daily. TP at $46.50, the highest price reached by previous peeks
The anchored vwap is shown below - a close-up of the trend.
Have not chosen a trade/plan yet. Hope this is useful as the "raw material".
Zoom:
3/6/22 XUnited States Steel Corporation ( NYSE:X )
Sector: Non-Energy Minerals (Steel)
Market Capitalization: 8.198B
Current Price: $31.42
Breakout price: $30.55
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $29.45-$26.95
Price Target: $38.00-$39.30
Estimated Duration to Target: 65-69d
Contract of Interest: $X 5/20/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.50/contract
good day for "x" UNITED STATES STEEL CORPORATIONGOOD MORNING,
Today, there are several indicators for the X stock, and all of these indicators say that there is a rise in the coming days, so I think it is good to buy now.
First, we are above the VWAP and above the resistance, so we are a little protected, especially since they are resistances related to days,
Second, the 4EMA indicator is in the correct order and with a good density. It also indicates the rise in addition to MACD as well.
OPEN YOUR WALLETS AND
GOOD LUCK
VALE @ Crispy Potato26/02/22
THE FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 IS = BULL
COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (unanimously Bull)
DAYS
WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = NOT ASSESSMENT COMPLETED
PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BULL
This week the retracement was completed. Opening Mon-Wed the candles were small and insignificant, running the retracement through its process. Thursday the retracement end corrected with a Bull candle and significantly increased volume. Friday followed another Bull candle. Open was at 50% of the previous day, no tail the candle remained Bull all day, and finished with little to no tail on top. A strong finish for this setup the following week.
OBV is in alignment.
WEEK
WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT COMPLETED
PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BULL
This week was Bull with a tail to the bottom. The candle body was similar to the previous 2 weeks. Volume has picked up from last week. This candle, along with two weeks ago, sends a strong signal to Bears, the Bulls hold the power of play. The next resistance points begin around $19 and up to $21. It is probable this stock will rally up to around this point with little objection.
MONTH
FORECAST IN JAN FOR FEB = NO ASSESSMENT COMPLETED
FORECAST IN FEB FOR MARCH = BULL
The third Bull candle three months in a row, a strong Bull influence. Each month increases in candle body size. Volume is above average. The OBV interestingly is not in alignment, it is sideways with a slightly downward motion. Another note is the rallies are steep, steep rallies tend to create steep retracements = volatility. Also note, this stock does tend to tolerate longer steep rallies. The probability of a Bull March is higher than a Bear
Buy on dips for 40% returnHi All,
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Falling wedge is one the most accurate pattern. One can use buy on dips strategy.
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P.S: This is not an investment advice. This chart is meant for learning purposes only. This is my personal viewpoint so please Invest your capital at your own risk
CNXMETALMetal index is showing good moves after budget along with Elliot wave counts. Possibly wave i & ii of 5 is completed, and possibly wave III of 5th is started.
Wave Structure could be like this
Macd in daily
Macd in hourly
Rsi in hourly
Bollinger band challenged in hourly
Dmi adx also positive
Disclaimer
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My studies are Educational purpose only
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