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Sterling

GBPUSD - 2020 - Trend ReversalAfter the October and December bullish impulses, GBP/USD is trading in a rectangle consolidation above the 100/200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The NFP came in better than expected at 225K vs 160K forecast by analysts; giving an extra boost to USD. GBP/USD is under bearish pressure as the spot is trying to break the 1.2900 figure for a monthly close below. A break below the above-mentioned level can lead to further weakness towards the 1.2829 figure and the 1.2829 level. Resistances are seen near the 1.2938, 1.2972 level and 1.3000 figure, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. Resistance: 1.2938, 1.2972, 1.3000 Support: 1.2900, 1.2829, 1.2750
Long
by UnknownUnicorn1321512
1
GBP/USD forecast /post BOE/BREXITGU is technically cooking next move after a bit longer period of consolidation after 2 upward legs which created this new bullish trend from weekly support. Dollar paired some losses since October while GBP used that opportunity with combination from positive tones for Brexit. This week we will also get BOE rate decision which will definitely increase volatility on the markets due to almost even chances of cut-hold decision chances. Market is more sensitive and cautious since 'Coronavirus' fears which sent market into more risk-off causing dollar and safe havens to appreciate vs risk currencies. Also post brexit trade talks will be interesting to watch and it is still difficult to fundamentally forecast longer term Sterling direction. However, in such situation technicals and banks positioning is worth to watch. We are still bullish on pound and support looks good so far, not breaking down to create lower lows! For good r/r ratio I will take my chances going long on bullish overview. One of the rare times I disagree with sentiment with small stake, but good plan! If drop happens, I will look to re-enter lower.
Long
by fxmonarchy
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.01.14The power to breakdown has been developed knowingly and systematically, unlike chop/consolidation which frequently occurs. The effect of the breakdown is heightened by BOE turning very dovish and calling up for Sterling devaluation, which in their eyes must be required for offsetting the loss in UK market access. Compare the following two diagrams: Sellers step in on the election day as expected with a strong barrier. A sweep of the highs. Can sellers maintain the breakdown? In the first, the test of 1.35 sent buyers wandering on grounds of an orderly Brexit, depriving sellers valuable resistance. However, it was dangerous for buyers to carry on because the eye of Brexit is on it. After a Johnson majority came the selloff and now the attempt by sellers to reinstate the strategic breakdown which was previously broken is powerfully gaining momentum from the monetary side. Should we get the breakdown, the move will be fast as the insurance cut from BOE will not last beyond May. Bailey starts in May, it will take some time for the Johnson/Javid fiscal taps to work its way into the MPC forecasts meaning another late 2020 cut is then on the cards (not in play with this chart as will unlock 1.15). To put simply, a dovish BOE and hard Brexit will keep rates in the lower bound and QE infinity will return in 2021. For the immediate term, market clearly caught on the wrong side; 1.290x is next followed by 1.277x. Very difficult to get constructive on UK markets with BOE turning dovish. On the EURGBP side: Good luck all those on the sell side in Cable and other Sterling crosses, a lot of meat left on the bone. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc.
Short
by ridethepig
13
GBPUSD May Retrace! Trading Plan GBPUSD is approaching a resistance line of a triangle on 4H. the pair is currently quite weak so we will most likely see a pullback. the strong bearish reaction should start from the underlined blue area on 1H chart for confirmation, wait for a bearish breakout of a rising wedge. target levels here a very limited: 1.301 1.298 stop will be above the highest point of the wedge *if bulls push the market above the underlined resistance the setup will be invalid and our bias will switch to bullish
Short
by VasilyTrader
3
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.01.10By now there should be no surprises with BOE coming out on the wires at the 0.853x which was BOE stress level on the cross via Hard & Extreme Brexit scenarios (both still on the table). On the Euro side, selling has started to run out of steam and here the choice is between a breakout or more inside range trading. The first allows bulls to take charge once more; though the second allows room for more loading in the medium-term Pound shorts. We are getting closer to protecting the highs in Pound by inserting heavy support in EURGBP and protecting the lows; here the natural targets come in at 0.872x with extensions 0.90xx and 0.95xx for those trading the macro swing. The following well-know chart was played out before in EURGBP and this is no less imaginative: We shall close this chapter with a really unnatural looking move, this theatrical gesture from Carney yesterday - I mean has worked; Pound bulls want to refute it forthwith, but so far it is turning out to be very difficult. Eyes on the Pound flush for Brexit impact. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and support coming, drop a line with any ideas or charts...
Long
by ridethepig