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GBPUSD At Support, RSI and Stochastic Suggest OversoldThe crowd may be right on their net long position for a few reasons. Price action has hit support while the Chaikin an stochastic oscillators suggest the pound is severely oversold. The UK is ready to gear up for EU Parliamentary elections on the other hand. Since the center left and center right pro-remain parties refuse to coordinate for an electoral and tactical win, you may be reading a headline in the not so distance future that Brexit parties win in these elections. This may influence the pound, but Brexit forces throughout the year were shrugged off on notions of a deal which is yet to be determined.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Falling Wedge Indicates a Break to UpsideWhile a falling wedge is forming over the past few weeks, the UK was just granted an extension until October of this year ensuring that we are all continued to be bored to death by it until then. In all likelihood, there will be a general election before then and perhaps a new government controlled by Jeremy Corbyn. God knows what he'll do with this mess. At any rate, this gives the UK and the pound much breathing room and a new incentive to be long on it which is my new general view of the pair.
Long
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Longer Extension More Likely Than No Deal The EU has made it clear that they are no longer interested in shorter extensions. Therefore, its either no deal or a longer extension which could be many months to almost a year. If this is the case, I would expect a significant rise in this pair as it would significantly alleviate the risk of the UK leaving the EU at all. May never come to fruition and we would likely see a completely new government form relatively soon which may even hold another referendum.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
GBPAUD - Amidst AUD Weakness, Can We Still See Bearish Movement?Today, I'll be starting on technicals and end off on various fundamental factors. So, starting on the 4HR timeframe, we've seen a range of lower lows and lower highs being created with our most recent lower low being formed around the 1.82600 price region. We are now of course, anticipating a lower high to be formed in continuation of the downtrend. The daily and the 4HR timeframes both have bearish EMA crossovers and this may be the slowdown of price on GBPAUD before a massive downside clearing out the prior lows. We did manage to spike below the monthly key level however we closed just above, technically labelling the key level as support and I am looking for a slight retracement higher. We are testing the prior daily high and reaching the 38.2% Fibonacci zone which may be a good reversal zone, but we must take into account, the descending trend line as well as the 61.8/78.6% zone marked up with the ellipse tool. Price has the potential to move +/-100 pips before this pair plummets so I will be vigilant and watch for a candlestick reversal pattern worth noting as well as a nice clean rejection from resistance or the Fibonacci levels. This setup is still shaping itself and I feel we need more confluence to trade this pair. Due to the EMAs being broken to the upside, which we were previously trending below, I'd like to see the closure of the next 4HR candle as well as the opening of the London session to see more liquidity and direction in the market as currently price just seems to be breathing above the monthly key level. Looking at the fundamentals, we have lots of volatility to be seen around 9:30 GMT, regarding the GBP as we see monthly GDP and Manufacturing data being released with a forecast of slightly negative figures compared to the previous month. The are also various data releases from the RBA ( Reserve Bank Of Australia ), however GBP will be in the spotlight as we saw PM May rushing to Berlin yesterday in an attempt to gain another extension till the 30th of June, however if Labour support her, we can see an exit by the 22nd of May. Thursday we should receive the outcome and Friday the UK could leave the EU with no deal if the EU refuse yet another extension of Article 50. Our next expected volatile news for the AUD is the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes early Tuesday morning next week so manage your trades in the correct manner and execute trades with reasonable risk management. Have a great week further traders !
Short
by KeownArcher
Get down Sterling! Time to bite the support curbHere is a shorter time frame shot of my long term Cable trade (GBP/USD). Thought I would share this 15min time view so you can see an easy set up in my opinion* down to 1.30 support lines. Obviously we have plenty of room to go either side for now, but the trend analysis and patterns on my side seem to indicate again in my opinion that now is a good spot to short from and hold for a good few thousand pips. I suggest a really tight stop (in relative size to the profit target) and to thank me later ;) As always this is not investment advice, this is my trade, my funds, my idea and opinion. Happy hunting to all. Much love MysticCrypto
Short
by UnknownUnicorn4504015
Macron Gains Spanish and Belgian Support for No Deal Brexit Macron convinced the Spanish and Belgians in supporting his stance on not allowing a long extension beyond April 12th, just five trading days away, without a meaningful signal by the UK Parliament in asserting what kind of deal they want to leave the EU. While Macron did suggest a short extension beyond the 12th, it is not clear when this would be. What is clear is that UK PM May will not get her June 30th deadline, but this gives traders little insight on how much time they'll have for another run up to another potential exit date beyond the fact that it will be before June 30th. Another possibility is May 22 which the EU offered May weeks ago, but only if Parliament passed the Brexit deal last week, which it failed to do. The EU said the UK could still seek a longer delay, but one that would likely be many months and require the UK to participate in European parliamentary elections. Again, France would reject this because they too do not want the UK to participate in EU elections as the UKs absence will significantly increase French voting power in the legislative body. So until next week ¯\(°_°)/¯
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Brexit Would Kill UK Economy and Brexit Is Almost HereHavn't made a comment on GBPUSD in a bit mainly since just needed to sit back and see what the developments were. As expected, nothing new has happened while the odds of a no deal Brexit on April 12th are now noticeably higher according to the betting markets. The pound hasn't reflected this reality yet mainly because a deal is priced in. Dramatic volatility will come if there's a no deal. UK stock market would be significantly hit as well. Also the UK will probably go into technical recession in Q3 2019. Bad news for all except those on the right side this trade. From the BBC, "Prime Minister Theresa May said there was now a clear choice between Britain exiting the European Union with a deal or not leaving at all as she tries to find a compromise with the opposition Labour Party." May is so desperate for support on her deal she's gone to Labour which may bring her some votes on the left side of the aisle, but then will probably lose a few more in her own party given the likely promises she will have to make for Corbyn. Meanwhile, EU-based corporations are making plans in case a hard Brexit occurs. All around, we are now in very dangerous territory for an accidental crash out. However, I am still neutral given the fact that there could be a last minute extension even though the French may block this. Again, too volatile for me to trade.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Brexit Just Won’t Go Away; For the Pound, That’s a Good ThingBrexit. Its kind of like a bad tattoo in that it never goes away, yet was almost immediately regrettable. Unfortunately that continues to be the case this week with Prime Minister May meeting with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn to etch out a deal for the House of Commons to pass her bill which has already been rejected three times. Much ink has been spilled and many black pixels dedicated to the analysis of Brexit and forecast of where things are headed. In spite of this, we know just as much about where we will be on April 12th as we did when the deadline was first announced. Moreover, the price of the pound to the US dollar is now nearly completely divorced from fundamentals and simply trading on the notion that a no deal Brexit will be avoided. But is this the case? And if so, to what degree is a deal priced in? One of the only non-political comments an observer could make on the cable chart to look for those former levels of resistance as support. 1.19 is about the lowest level of support while 1.26 to 1.27 could also be interesting support levels if the price moves down in the aftermath of a Brexit deal as a no deal Brexit would probably test the former levels seen in 2016 and 2017: Vote for the Brexit that promises least; It will be the least disappointing Will the pound break through previous levels of resistance and form them as support, or will it crash 20 percent like the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum? Hard to say at this point as the website oddschecker.com asserts the chances have increased that UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn will become the next UK PM. Its shortened to 5-1 at many of the bookies, roughly equal to former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary. They are now the expected favorites to replace May after Dominic Raab, a former Brexit Secretary who resigned from the government late last year and is now quoted at around 9-1 and Jeremy Hunt, the current Foreign Secretary, whose odds have drifted out to around 10-1. While the chances of Corbyn becoming Prime Minister continues to go up, it is still yet to be determined if there will be a general election and if the Conservatives can get May to resign as leader as she had promised. The question remains though when any of these potential outcomes would come to fruition, although speculation abounds that it would have to be after an extension to the April 12th deadline. Although the pound has been highly volatile since the British voted to exit the EU in June 2016, it is important to keep in mind that the pair reached a low of 1.18 in October which has since risen to above 1.31.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Brexit no-deal off the tableGBPUSD We finally have some clarification for one of the biggest market risks – Brexit. The no-deal Brexit has been blocked in the British Parliament. This sent the pound higher and provided stable footing for traders to speculate from. Additionally, Prime Minister Theresa May has reached out to the Labour party’s Jeremy Corbyn for support. They used to be enemies on the way the saw Brexit, but as they say, the strongest allies are past enemies. All alliances that lead the economy towards a stable future is welcome. Ministers within the government that have been predominantly voting against everything May has pushed forward are resigning at an increasing rate. The public will not miss them. Fundamentally, the UK’s biggest export is their services sector, particularly financial services. Services sector data sets have shown a contraction that was not priced into the forecast. This is due to the Brexit uncertainty and companies moving head offices out of London and into the Eurozone. Pound Sterling received the lift it was looking for. Price is currently above the channel line, above the 200EMA and above the psychological level of 1.3000. A long trade could be opened if a retest of the 200EMA was to appear. Also, a breakthrough of 1.3200 could be an entry point with a take profit below 1.3400.
Long
by YaroslavBirchenko
1
GBPJPY - TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A TERRIBLE UK GOVERMENT! 300 PIP MELTGood evening from the UK. Being from the UK the embarrassment I feel from our government is unbelievable! Oh well, we may aswell capitalise from their stupidity. Strong words but who cares, I'm here for the pips. Now in a time like this where there is a lot of heavy fundamentals (economic data) that could affect bias' lets not start with that. Ultimately ALWAYS stick to your charts bias 'THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND' a quote from my Forex trading guide. trading is 80% technical 20% fundamentals. Right to the juicy stuff, if you look at previous articles I've wrote we have been swinging in an upwards channel. Now over the past week we had; - 4th trend line touch - False Breakout - & ultimately being the 4th touch, this shows signs of exhaustion leading to a break to a purple daily key level on my chart in which was a good 200 pips. Now writing this article 3 hours before end of market play for the week we have a marabou Thursday and a shooting star Friday two great bearish continuation signals. Now we have broken through a weekly strong resistance. The pair may want to retest this level as resistance before breaking below our daily level of 144.00. From a higher time frame perspective I have a descending pink trend line that the week closure has broke back beneath indicating a false breakout that was confirmed with this months double top. Now if you treat that as a double top the bias works well with the two technical points on the chart. RSI indicator still shows signs of more room for the price to fall before being exhausted. Price is also sitting under my blue exponential moving average continuing that bear trend. Any strong signalling closures above my weekly key level and moving averages will show a bullish outcome. Now with a lot of Brexit talk and Yen data next week the pair WILL BE VOLATILE. The market will either want to get you an easy execution, test your patience and keep you waiting or have spikes going against the trend and reverse. Rule of this pair to take into consideration, make sure your entries are SPOT ON or allow wide breathing space. 141.00 is my target To see another information regarding the trading i do visit the link in my Instagram @Travis_duncz
Short
by Travis_duncz
UK is Still Careening Towards A No Deal BrexitA few points to keep track of before the potential final vote on May's deal. First, whats being voted on is entirely different from previous votes. The details are complicated, but essentially the previous failed votes are now broken up into two main sections (which is apparently contrary to previous UK laws passed, but whatever) and the EU asserted that it would only grant an extension if one of those two parts (the Withdrawal Agreement) is passed. The Political Declaration is less important and can be renegotiated later. Second, if she doesn't get it passed, then the likelihood of a no deal Brexit will be much more priced into cable than previously. Traders are already seeing this with yesterday's deep losses which was the worst single day loss since December 10th 2018. We can also see the shift in the trend from the sheer number of exponential moving averages edging above the price of the pair. Third, although May not getting her deal passed would be quite negative for financial markets (which is somewhat more expected at this point despite her offering her premiership for her passing her deal) this does not automatically mean the UK will leave the EU without a deal. In fact, I would even argue that without passing a deal the two most likely options then become either an extension of the April 12 deadline to May-June or steps will be taken to progress towards not leaving the EU altogether. Fourth, what happens if (probably when) May loses Friday's vote is up in the air. She could then resign, or there could be another vote of no confidence, or there could be another renegotiated process with the EU, or she could try to get the vote passed again, or...you get the picture. Its really up in the air what happens after Friday, clearly this whole process is a mess and quite confusing, and seemingly the desires of the EU, of May's government, and of the House of Commons differ so significantly that even after almost three years of this whole process we still do not know if, when, or on what terms the UK would leave the EU. If May's vote fails, it has been suggested that she could simply aim for a customs union then and in fact this was the least unpopular indicative vote in the HoC yesterday. Because of this, it likely remains the most likely deal that could pass HoC. In this case, it seems that an extension beyond April 12 will be required and the EU will probably hold an emergency meeting after Friday if her vote fails. If her vote doesn't fail, then its all said and done. The UK would leave the EU on April 12. But don't expect such an anti-climactic outcome to come to fruition in this real life political drama. For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Theresa May promises to step down like David CameronPound Sterling The British government and the Pound along with them seem to be totally confused on what action to take. The Pound has been in a flat and the British parliament has also been undecided on what direction they plan to take things. It has been a long and unproductive 2.5-year ordeal after the initial Brexit vote. The outcome is worrisome, Prime Minister Theresa May announced her intention to step down from the role of PM if she could get support for her Brexit proposal. It’s strange it had to come to this, the previous Prime Minister David Cameron also stepped down because of Brexit. There are many distractions to keep traders busy and no one knows what to make of the possibility of a new Prime minister. Could this solve the issue of Great Britain leaving the EU? Probably not. Will this help GB make new trade agreements with the surrounding countries, not to mention the rest of the world? Probably not. Parliament voted on the possibility of majority support for any available solution. The outcome was no majority support for anything: no deal, no second referendum, no new common market, no UK customs union or anything else. This seriously undermines stability for Sterling and the UK markets for the foreseeable future. Both the EU and GB are equally interested in a positive outcome. As long as we avoid the destructive no-deal Brexit, the Sterling will find footing for a recovery. But, if a proper trade agreement with the EU is not outlined there will be serious issues of economic stability. If British companies do not have access to trade partners as their EU counterparts have, Great Britain will be a begging nation open to anyone with half a desire to make trade agreements. Their neighbor Norway, part of the European Free Trade Association, has publicly stated that they do not want Great Britain a part of EFTA; “They are a bully” and “the benefit is just not there”. The Sterling broke through the uptrend trendline and seems to be consolidating in a triangle pattern. If price stays below 1.31114, we could have a continuation to the downside and test 1.30000.
Short
by YaroslavBirchenko
GBPUSD Unsure, But Brexit Votes Edges Closer to No DealWith all of the indicative votes failing in the House of Commons and PM May's deal looking increasingly unlikely to pass, the UK is now in serious jeopardy of an accidental crash out of the EU. The price of the pound does not reflect this pact and incredibly the historic 10-day volatility of the pound has dropped back down to relatively normal levels. I am still neutral to short (officially neutral) and there are several reasons why: 1) The UK still has two weeks for the House of Commons to come together and get a deal done. 2) May's vote could still pass the House of Commons. 3) May giving herself up to fall on her Brexit sword to get her deal passed indicates that is not willing to trade a no deal Brexit for her and the Conservative Party to maintain in power. Beyond these silver linings though, there are many more reasons to either stay neutral: 1) The sheer diversity of outcomes that could occur before April 12 is incredible including no deal, one of the many different versions of a deal, May's deal, a general election, May resigning, a renegotiation of the deal, another referendum, or a vote of no confidence. 2) Some of these are more possible than others, but the scale of the options creates extreme uncertainty. 3) Because of the uncertainty, trades beyond two weeks could be dramatically hit from a move in the opposite direction as a no deal would probably lead to a massive loss while a deal would result in a massive gain. There are even more reasons to be short. Those I will get into as time develops though since my view is increasing moving from neutral/short to short. More to come. If you would like to see some additional analysis, please check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3