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Sterling

GBPNZD 'STERLING RISES FROM THE DEAD!' WHAT NEXT?Good afternoon from the UK. Personally my favourite time of the week, Sunday setups. In particular I've decided to explore Sterling after its great momentum to the upside this week. With the possibility of a no deal Brexit being nullified this benefited several sterling pairs with 3/400 pip bull legs. Looking at GBPNZD from the 15/02/2019 we have a fibonacci retracement play out with points A & B being the first drive up of this analysis followed by a C retracement to the 50% fibonacci we know a target of D being our -27% extension green line. Now where would I expect the price to go next? you can say that the GBP bulls longterm may still be in the market however I am looking for a slow down in momentum and a correction in price with another retracement. I'm expecting sellers to get back into the markets into the first half of this week. If you take a look at the daily timeframe for this pair you will realise Fridays closure was a Hanging man at the end of an uptrend. To 'text book' this indicates a slow down to a bullish trend. Now I can use multiple confluences to determine where I may set target zones for a pullback/retracement. I have two purple daily key levels which price regularly uses as a support (floor) or Resistance (Ceiling). I can also use a new fibonacci starting from a swing low where C is on last weeks fib therefore C becoming my new point A and using point D as my new point B. Hope you guys are following me. From here I can find some hidden key levels as a bearish target. Finally I have a ascending trend-line which acts as a level of support also if price pushes towards this trend-line id be looking for one of three things: 1 Break 2 Bounce 3 False break. For me once this all plays out I will be then look into the rest of the week to see if the buyers then create a new swing high or come out of a upwards trend into consolidation or a downtrend. Taking this pair day by day. Going into Monday I will be looking at if the hanging man has been respected with signals of bearish momentum
Short
by Travis_duncz
GBPJPY Shorts on Hourly ChartHere we are zooming in for those wanting to track the initial move in this large leg on a small time-frame. Those who follow the account here will know we recently uploaded a Daily chart on GBPJPY with shorts all the way to the bottom of the range. Here we are showcasing an initial impulse move down at resistance. For a more detailed breakdown on the macro and fundamentals please see our related ideas where Brexit has been explained in depth. Best of luck and feel free to open up the discussion here
Short
by ridethepig
4
GBPJPY time to start working the sell-sideA very quick idea update here after a conversation with 'ikovachky' in the Forex chat room. We are approaching the end of the road with Brexit and timing wise it is finally time to get to work on selling the currency again. The Pound is only going one way with a Hard Brexit and if you are a believer in the bearish UK story, then you know exactly what to do here. From a rates perspective, the UK has seen 5 months of very disappointing data. Gilt yields are likely to remain capped for the near-term, which will ease the immediate pressure on hikes and allow the MPC till the second half of 2019 before being forced to move. On inflation, energy has kept CPI below target of late however this will rise firmly above the 2.0% target from April via sharp upticks in air fares, and utilities. A tight labour market is keeping wages held up whilst productivity recovery is nowhere to be seen. This will keep labour costs rising. Best of luck if you are on the sell-side in Sterling, this has setup the macro trade of the year.
Short
by ridethepig
3
Building longs as we approach the 76.4% retracement in EURGBP...=> The heavy selling we have seen here as a result of the 'relief rally' in sterling after expectations of a second referendum entered the picture. This fairy tale is starting to exit the stage via the fire exit and we are heading back to reality. => This means that the odds of a no-deal Brexit outcome are going to once again take the spotlight and we are set for a bloodbath in sterling. => Here we can see EURGBP approaching the 76.4% retracement of the entire 2017 rally after breaking out the channel we made in 2018. => In our books we see this as a great buying opportunity for the cross as the Euro is offering great value for those in the UK. => The risk to our idea is if we break-down lower and close below this will imply that we are setting a more meaningful medium term top.
Long
by ridethepig
2
GBPNZD. Turning Up now. Wait for daily close above breakout box*A strong daily candle close above breakout box (red) stops out my short trade and confirms a buy trade. Trading Criteria: Regardless which way you want to trade, look for minimum five 4hr. candles in consolidation zones (yellow border boxes), or five daily candles for solid yellow boxes. If you're a pattern trader or pinbar trader, this might be useful here. Wait for a significant breakout of the 4hr. consolidation or daily consolidation from red border boxes to take the trade. Red border boxes are the High/Low of a consolidation period inside the consolidation zone. I usually aim for 80% of the weekly ATR (or monthly ATR for yellow solid boxes) taking profit but not always at the next yellow box. I place my stop loss above/below red border box. *These zones, with the inclusion of price action described above, have remarkable accuracy. Yellow border box: weekly consolidation zone Yellow solid box: monthly consolidation zone Red border box: High/Low breakout box (5 minimum candles) Grey solid box: monthly grid block
Long
by ComteSt.Germain
Bullish Cable againThe British pound is ending the month of February with a bullish move, up 0.50% after rumors of brexit delay in case a deal cannot be agreed on before end of March; offering some market relief and helping GBP/USD recovering almost all its February decline. Looking at the chart, the pair is trading above its main MAs which indicates positive momentum. Also broke a downward trend line capping upward movement since May. Plus, trade optimism between China and the US offered some more market relief. Technically: the trend is neutral to bullish - next resistance being 1.316 (Feb high, 240 Day SMA) , followed by 1.322 (Jan high, 100 Week SMA). Trade Safe.
Long
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
GBP/USD too early to kill a princ?We have a bullish engulfing at 1.28000, from my perspective we have a trend reversal, because we didn't manage to break 1.2800 (crucial level for sterling), I very bullish for sterling until the week of brexit. The buy zone is 1.28500 (Tuesday due to the news of GBP), retest trendline 1.28900 before breaking 1.30000 So my advice is to buy sterling low and sell it high. I said too early to kill a princ because it's too early to hit that monthly supp 1.2700, and brexit is far away (March 29). Daily Bullish engulfing
Long
by ronizfx
Sterling Capitulation? ... a live example of the offside trap...we have a very interesting idea on the menu today for everyone. This is a very advanced environment and would recommend only those who are experienced to trade this swing position. => We are approaching steel resistance once more and it is time to get active on the sell-side in the UK. We have fresh headlines this morning from the political side attempting to continue selling the dream of a second referendum and attempt to remove no-deal from the equation. => Unfortunately for those in the UK this is nothing but political fairy-dust and we are set for a massacre ceteris paribus. Markets are positioned on the wrong side and we will need to see a meaningful correction here as reality kicks in and models begin pricing in a no-deal exit once more. => We are starting to build a position on the sell-side here, it requires nerves of steel and patience as the noise levels from the mainstream media are guaranteed to be extreme. => From a technical perspective, after the neutral session yesterday we saw Asia rally clearing the 200MA and trend line from September, this has 'opened' the door for a cluster of stops at 1.317 which is in the crosshairs. So how are we going to trade this ? => Well we are wanting to trade the exhaustion here when bulls start getting ahead of themselves and like football, begin to trap them offside . We see signs of a fresh top starting to form already and expect the stage to be set over the weekend via the political heads from the UK. => Support moves to 1.309 and 1.301, below here unlocks 1.294 and 1.288. Removal of this will trigger the capitulation which is what we are trying to trade here and unlock 1.23. Best of luck to all those who are trying to position for Brexit or who are already in this live.
Short
by ridethepig
4
GBP/USD Possible Head and shoulders Cable is trading in a bearish trend below its 200D SMA and is being driven by brexit uncertainty that is rising day over day, affecting market sentiment and businesses all over the UK. Currently, hopes of reaching a brexit deal are shrinking which will continue putting downside pressure on this pair. Also, a potential head and shoulders can be spotted on the 4 hour chart which if confirmed breaking below the neckline can send this pair to lower levels including 2018 lows near 1.25. I am currently bearish on the cable unless a positive progress is made on brexit negotiations.
Short
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
GBPAUD READY TO PLUNGE - LIKELY PULLBACK WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS NOTE: This is just analysis/advice, do not FOLLOW this trade blindly - I take no responsibility for it... Ideally looking for this currency pair to enter a sell-off after potential news of the UK's GDP figures (output produced by the UK / economic growth / announced 9:30am UK time). With Italy and Germany recently heading into a recession, it is possible that the UK could be next to fall into one, causing the GBP to weaken. Additionally, the Brexit situation and business uncertainty should look to drive the UK economy weaker, making the GBP weaken. I feel there is time to make a perfect entry for a healthy profit and have drawn the potential support and resistance regions where I feel price should bounce around. Currently, I see this pair rallying till the figures are released. For this trade, I have placed a tight stop loss to make this a less risky trade in case it does start to rally in which case I can enter a new position. I am currently testing some new concepts for trading... Reasons for the GBP weakening: - Blaming Brexit uncertainty and slowing global growth, the central bank has cut its forecast for 2019 growth to 1.2% from 1.7%. This would be the weakest growth since the recession of 2009. - The BoE said it had seen further evidence that businesses were being cautious in the run-up to Brexit, including evidence from its own survey of firms. - As expected, interest rates remain unchanged at 0.75%, with the Monetary Policy Committee voting unanimously for no change in the base rate. Sterling fell against other currencies in response. - The BoE put the fall in growth down to a decline in business investment and housebuilding, as well as a halving of the growth rate in exports. - The BoE even sees a one-in-four chance of the economy slipping into recession in the second half of this year. If you managed to read it this far down, thanks for reading this! If you could, please do offer your ideas & perspectives on this pair. Buy or Sell and why? Additionally, drop me your charts for it, that'd be great so I can see where you are coming from. I'm a new guy to the FX & Crypto market, trying to learn FX & Crypto, and I'd appreciate any help people may offer! Please drop a follow! I need reputation points!!
Short
by ShaunLeo35
GBP/USD bullishInteresting move today for the cable which is already up 1.14% at the end of the week. Market is now expecting a soft brexit rather than no deal brexit. Technically the pair is gaining bullish momentum since it broke above the 200day SMA at 1.318 and will likely close above it weekly. Also, it broke a descending trend line shown on the chart which shows a bullish continuation for the near term. Next potential target is 1.326 (Oct 12 high) , 1.33 psychological mark and Sep 20 high, 1.332 (38.2 Fibo) and 1.346 (June 13 high). Trade safe.
Long
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT