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Sterling

Stalking Sterling for next week - as Brexit panic sets in. In the screncast I start off with GBPAUD on a weekly time frame and move on into much lower time frames across other pound-pairs. The geopolical/macroeconomic picture for the UK with Brexit, creates uncertainty. There are reliable reports of preparations for pharmaceutical stock piling, big push in logistics sector for storage of tinned food and firelighters and Whitehall preparing 'war games' scenarios. Such preparations would not be happening if there was no realistic probability of a hard Brexit. The issue of course for us traders is not about Brexit as a politico-economic event. We need to be prepared to make some money out of it. Right? This is not a moral issue for me, but if it is for some traders, then avoid Pound pairs.
by Captain_Walker
FTSE100 slopes above the recent rangeUK100, Daily & H4 European stock markets are broadly higher. Eurozone markets, which rallied from the off led by Italy's MIB, have come off early highs, while the UK100 extended gains through the session and as of 10:34GMT was up 0.69%, while the GER30 was up 0.57% and the MIB up 0.78%. The broad move higher came after a strong session in Asia, where Chinese equity markets rallied again amid the verbal support from authorities and plans to cut personal income taxes to support the domestic economy as trade tensions start to have an impact helped to boost stock market sentiment. China's President Xi Jinping vowed "unwavering" support for the private sector, although it remains to be seen whether this is a lasting rebound in market sentiment. US futures are also up, while oil prices are down from early highs and at USD 69.20 per barrel. In the UK, the focus will be on the fragile political scene, with Prime Minister May due to make an unusual appeared at 14:30 GMT, in an attempt to shore up support in the face of growing support among her Conservative party MPs for a no confidence vote. May is to say that she is 95% of the way towards securing a workable deal, as well as providing details. Whether this will be enough to save herself remains to be seen as her Brexit plan is deeply unpopular among significant portions of both Eurosceptic and Europhile members. The Pound has declined by average of nearly 1.5% versus the Dollar, Euro and Yen over the last week, which reflects an increased Brexit-risk discount after the October-17 Brussels summit, which had only recently been trumpeted as a make-or-break threshold, came and went without any sign of a breakthrough on the seemingly insoluble Irish border problem, and with the EU cancelling a formerly pencilled-in special Brexit summit for mid November due to the lack of progress. Now the Prime Minister is facing an existential threat, with the Conservative party's 1922 Committee, formed of backbench members of parliament, needing only two more letters from party MPs to trigger a no confidence vote. This would pave the way to a leadership challenge, which would hurl a spanner in the works of the time-running-out Brexit negotiation timetable. Along with Pound discount, we have seen so far UK100 moving higher, crossing earlier above the range 6922 - 7095 in which was stuck for the past 7 days. A closing today above this barrier, could suggest that in the near term the index is ready to recover a bit from the sharp drop in October. This is based on the positive bias presented as the UK100 is off its lows moving above 23.6% Fib. level set from 7557 high and by forming higher lows since October 11. However in longterm, such move higher cannot confirm the turn of the overall negative outlook into a positive one, but could oppositely alert a possible selling opportunity.  This is based on the decline seen for UK100 since May, with the index looking unable to recover  since then, by forming lower highs. Hence any rebound could just show a short-term recovery for this long-term decline, and therefore another opportunity for a possible sell-off. Meanwhile, daily momentum indicators support the increase of negative momentum, while intraday indicators are sloping northwards stating the rise of positive momentum in the near-term. To sum  up, a close today above 7095, could trigger the attention towards 7220-7260 area. The latter coincides with August's lows, 20 day SMA and 50% Fib. level set from September's peak.Further gains could lead towards 7400-7450 Resistance area (i.e. between  trendline connecting lower highs and 200-day SMA). However a failure for index to sustain an upwards movement would suggest the return to 6922 Support level. Intraday Support levels are set at 7035 and 7000 Andria Pichidi Market Analyst Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by HotForex
[GBPCAD] BULLISH OUTLOOK HOLDS?GBPCAD, H4 UK August trade data revealed a bigger than expected deficit, of GBP 1.3 bln in the total trade figure, with the visible goods deficit coming in at GBP 11.2 bln. In the 3 months to August, the ex-inflation total trade deficit narrowed GBP 6.1 bln to GBP 0.8 bln, which was driven by both a narrowing in the goods deficit and an expansion in the services surplus. Meanwhile, UK August production data came in mixed today, with the broad industrial output headline slightly exceeding expectations with 0.2% m/m and 1.3% y/y growth while the narrower manufacturing production measure underwhelmed somewhat with an unexpected 0.2% m/m contraction. More timely September surveys, such as the PMI reports, have painted a relatively dimmer picture, with Brexit-related uncertainty taking a toll on confidence and crimping new investment. Even though the cloud of uncertainty over Brexit weighs on Sterling, today’s Brexit news boosted Sterling higher. A London Times article claimed that 30 Labour party MPs would reportedly back Prime Minister May’s Brexit plan at the last minute, if needed, to avoid a no-deal Brexit scenario, suggesting that there could be enough votes for the plan to pass a parliamentary vote, as this would offset Tory party rebels who are planning to vote against it. Cable managed to eke out a 2-week high at 1.3185, 15 pips below upwards handle as mentioned in yesterday's post. As the Pound remains on bid since the news release and in contrast with the mixed economic data front, most of the sterling crosses present the same performance. GBPCAD for example is currently retesting the immediate intraday Resistance level at 1.7060, which is just few pips below the 78.6% Fib level since the dive from 1.7200. The pair remains above 20- and 50-day SMA, for the fourth consecutive day. However, our focus turned on GBPCAD today, on the break of the 1.7038 level. Interestingly, this level coincides with the 2 consecutive upper fractals in the 4-hour chart but also with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level since July's decline from the 1.7771 high. This along with the fact that the pair moves within the upper Bollinger band pattern and 20-period SMA crossed above 200-period SMA, added further positive bias in the near future. Technically, the same bullish picture is seen in momentum indicators, as RSI just crossed 70 barrier, indicating that there is further space to the upside. MACD presents a positive to neutral picture as MACD lines are flattened within the positive area, something that implies short term consolidation or weak momentum. Based on the positive outlook that GBPCAD presents so far, further upside movement is anticipated, with next Resistance levels at the round 1.7100 and 1.7165 level (200-day SMA). Immediate Support holds at the confluence of the 20-period SMA and 61.8% Fib. level, at 1.6975. Medium term Support level is set at 1.6920-1.6930 area (200-period SMA and 2low fractals). In the alternative scenario that bears push GBPCAD lower, only a closing into the lower daily Bollinger Band pattern, below the 1.6950 level, could drive the price to the 1.6830 Support level reached on Friday. Such a break could confirm the possibility of significant losses and it will alert the retest of the 2-month triple bottom at 1.6595.  Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Long
by HotForex
GBPUSD & Second Referendum Brexit?I have read that the Labour Party would vote for a second Brexit referendum. I am not sure wether that is bullish or bearish for the sterling. The market is one moody bugger who changes its mind so much. One day, this kind of news would be bullish for sterling, one day it becomes bearish. However, this fresh news (about potential second referendum now that no deals have been strucked with months before deadline) creates more uncertainty, and any uncertainty potentially negative for the Sterling. Technically, GBPUSD have reached and exceeded its monthly range projection (high), as always, I will always shift my mid-term bias into a "retracement mode". Coincidentally, price reacted bearishly and formed Bearish Engulfing Candle on the Daily TF. I have made an extension projection based on this to a 61.8% extension. I am zooming in to Hour One timeframe and look for a short opportunity and target the weekly range projection low (almost = to the Daily 61.8% extension)
Short
by sufiansaid
GBPCAD SHORT IDEAI have placed a market order for a short position on this pairing. This seems to me like a good trade considering the recent impasse in the Brexit negotiations, and the positive correlation (0.78) between movements in oil prices and the Canadian dollar. I have placed my entry @ 1.693. I am looking to take profit @ 1.66. My stop loss will be set at 1.703 for the time being and will be moved down depending on the market actions. This is not intended as investment advice. I am simply using this analysis for my future self to look back on and develop my skills as a trader. Good luck!
Short
by StirlingBishop