GBP/AUD Long day trade - +1.3% Good evening everyone,
sharing a great trade I took on Monday on FX_IDC:GBPAUD
What initially caught my eye was the rejection of the 1.8200 support level followed by the break of the descending phase line.
Entered couple of hours before the London open before the usual volume expansion, TP order was hit pretty quickly.
Please feel free to write me a PM if you wish to know more about the strategies that I use to consistently pull money out of the markets.
Have a great Sunday evening
Sterling
EURGBP trading back to EU referendum priceThis is a Wyckoff topping pattern.
We are going to unwind the move that led to the rally in EUR vs Sterling.
Brexit fears have been price in on the most part, and the Eurozone is looking pretty weak, if not for the ECB propping up the currency with QE still.
I do not think this propping up will end, either.
GBPAUD ShortAs the markup demonstrates, GBPAUD has double topped on H4 and has been in a consolidation for more than 3 weeks. Aussie has held gains even with Gold falling but I believe this is partly due to Crude rallying (as the Aussie is a commodity strong currency) and dissipation of trade war fears. Taking the simple technicals and overall market fundamentals into account, I am short on this pair in the near term. Please share your opinions below!
GBPCCHFThe Pound/Swiss Franc cross is a lower volatility pair that is tempered by the currencies' economic and geographic proximity. The Swiss Franc is considered a benchmark safe haven currency due to its history as a refuge for wealthy individuals from foreign shores looking to safe guard capital. In turn, the British Pound is one of the premier reserve currencies and represents the world's largest financial center.
GBPUSD LongConfuences between 38.2% retracement, 61.8% retracement, the monthly support level of 1.40 is going to be retested and a candle forrmation of a "ladder bottom" to be confirmed with the monday`s candle, key level on Daily candlesticks + MA`s crossed to the upside, next target is the -27% extension (1.4310)
GBPUSDThe British Pound against the US Dollar is one of the oldest currency pairings in the world. The pair is often called 'The Cable', as the first transatlantic communication cable run across the floor of the Atlantic, connecting Great Britain with The United States, was used to transmit currency prices between the two economies. 'The Cable' remains a favorite of traders today, accumulating massive interest considering the size of The UK economy.
EURGBPThe Euro/Pound represents a cross between two biggest economies in Europe - the Euro-zone and the United Kingdom. Given the economic proximity and interdependence between the two, the pair is significantly less volatile than many other Euro or Pound based crosses. The pair is particularly sensitive to changes in monetary policy between the Bank of England and European Central Bank.
GBPJPYThe Yen rally continues to further itself along against most currencies as ‘risk-off’ grips equity markets. Most of the pairs have been trading lower, with GBP/JPY as a holdout due to a strong sterling. However, recent price action suggests that could rollover in-line with the others.
A bear-flag is emerging, but has yet to trigger. Should it trade below the lower trend-line, look for GBP/JPY to drop towards the April 2017 trend-line down near 14600, but if selling gets aggressive a broader decline to sub-14000 looks to be in the cards.
Weekly breakout could be exploited GBPMXN (weekly) chart is showing some interesting features, which lead me to be long on lower time frames.
There is some sort of triangle, wedge, or pennant following breakout.
The pattern is holding above a level of support (at this time).
Based on experience, this creates a probability for further moves north.
The Aroon is showing that the bulls are still in control, creating a probability for greater time-momentum .
The above does not mean it cannot break down catastrophically. Every probability in one direction also leaves a probability for the opposite direction . A stop-loss is what limits loss if price moves against my favoured direction.
I do not know what the future will bring - as I have no crystal ball. All I can do is take a controlled acceptable risk. I'm long on a daily time frame with this (which is not advice to others).
GBPMXN is one of those that is very wild and often disobeys some of the rules of technical analysis. So extreme caution is required.
GBPJPYThe British Pound (GBP) against the Japanese Yen (JPY) pair denotes how many Yen are needed to purchase one Pound Sterling. GBP/JPY is a pair widely followed by scalpers and forex day traders. Day traders love the wide and volatile swings the pair tends to make on a day by day basis. There is enough liquidity in the pair for scalpers to quickly get into and out of trades. Additionally, forex technical analysis, such as support and resistance trading, tends to work well due to the amount of volume and forex transactions that takes place in the GBPJPY. This volume and liquidity carves technical patterns that shorter term traders closely follow. GBP/JPY is also a widely followed market for the medium term and longer term traders. Since the JPY is historically a low yielding currency, it is often used as a funding currency of a trade. Additionally, with the United Kingdom begin one of the larger economies in Europe, the Pound-Yen pair carry trade can be viewed as a proxy for worldwide economic health. On the other hand, when the markets experience severe risk aversion, this pair has been a proxy for market 'risk-off' moves as the carry trade gets reversed. As a result, GBPJPY has seen strong trends develop that can be in excess of thousands of pips. Due to the volume and liquidity available, retail sentiment can also be useful when trading those trends.
EURGBPThe EUR / GBP pair was very noisy during the trading conducted the previous week, but at this point it is obvious that we are in a significant consolidation area. I think the 0.87 level below is the "floor" on the market, just as the 0.90 level above is the "ceiling". I think short-term traders will love this pair in the short term, but I think. In general, we are still very much on a bullish trend, but we are currently waiting to see how the EU-UK trade slows. Until we are clear about this situation, this pair will be more likely to make significant moves. You will be able to go down one last time up to very high levels
GBPUSDWhile we remain neutral on Sterling at this current point, GBP may be in for a rocky ride next week with market moving data points including inflation, jobs and wages as well as the latest monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England. And just to round the week off, the EU Council will meet on Thursday/Friday to discuss the latest EU/UK transition period documents with UK businesses waiting for the outcome.
The latest inflation and wages data may well see the gap between the two narrow further – inflation expected to slip lower/wages expected to tick higher – giving the UK consumer more money in their pocket. The recent negative real wage gap has weighed on the UK retailers in particular and any narrowing of the gap may bring welcome relief to the high street.
The Bank of England is expected to leave all monetary policy levers untouched on Thursday but any change in voting pattern on rate hikes, or hawkish commentary in the accompanying statement may cement a rate hike at the May meeting, boosting the British Pound.
The UK and the EU are targeting next week’s EU Council meeting to finalise a Brexit transition period, giving government and businesses the clarity the require to build for the future. While negotiations have taken a slight turn for the better of late, with both sides adopting a more conciliatory tone, there possibility of a last-minute hitch is still very real, an event that would hit both GBP and EUR lower.
GBP IS THE SAFER BET TO RALLY AGAINST USD WEAKNESSEuropean FX - including GBP - is best placed to rally against USD.
GBP should find support with rising prospects that Britain may soon start to see the beginning of the end of austerity, as the Chancellor of the Exchequer prepares to announce the smallest deficit in a decade during his Spring Statement on Tuesday. Philip Hammond is expected to announce plans to consult on loosening the public purse strings, with some decisions made by the Autumn Statement, and a public spending review in 2019 for the period after 2020.
GBPUSDWe remain totally reticent on the sidelines when we look at Sterling while Brexit speaks little with the progress observed in recent weeks. Last Friday British Prime Minister Theresa May gave her long-awaited "Road to Brexit" speech, but any chance that this would help unblock negotiations failed when the EU continued to ignore Britain's demands and repeated the "mantra of the four pillars". Unless there is a steady change on either side of the trading desk, Sterling will remain in decline and weak
GBP/USD daily overviewDue to large volatility caused by various events in the recent trading sessions a broader look has been taken at the GBP/USD currency exchange rate.
What was discovered first on the larger timeframes was that the pair is trading in a rather large scale descending channel pattern. The pair has bounced off this channel down pattern's upper trend line on 26th of February.
The event has resulted in the formation of a junior channel down pattern, which is guiding the pair lower at an even steeper angle.
In regards to the next trading session, the pair is set to meet the resistance of the junior pattern and test the support of the weekly S1 at the 1.3870 level.
GBPJPY Short Setup - Daily Chart Unfortunately my GBPJPY long position was stopped out during Labour's speech, coupled with comments from Barnier around UK progress on key areas like citizen's rights.
On the daily time frame we have a perfect break, retest, followed by more bearish candles.
Theresa May is speaking today and she will be doing her best to cement her position as a stable leader and to drive home certainty around the UK economy. This may create some short term bids on £, but we will see!
Happy Friday...
GBP/USD Cable Short- Brexit Causes Sterling Tumble or does USD?GBP/USD has Fallen Nearly 300+ pips Since Rejecting 1.4000. THis Pair has now seen quite a divergence between the moving Averages as the new Fed Chair Powell Preaches hawkish overtones about Fed Hikes and Market Exhuberance. WIll The Cable Fall Again to Post Brexit Levels Yet Again?
Looking at the chart techincally, we can see that the Weekly Ascneding Trendline is currently being tested as the pair consolidates around the weekly mid range level of 1.3750. A confirmed break below would indicate a potential short oppurtunity however lets not rule out any retracements as the pair has had a massive fall in the past few days!
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