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STI

STI just reached interim downside target. May bounce...As posted on numerous occasions recently, the STI, as expected and accurately enough , broke down and ended the week at the interim downside target. This breakdown did not appear to have very strong momentum, although it appears to be technically committed. Hence, expect next week to be slightly bullish, perhaps to retest the resistance. So far, taking stock of the technical outlook, the STI broke down and out of the widening wedge, broke down and failed a retest of the 55EMA (orange line). It just has a bearish bias, just not one of a waterfall like earlier in the year, so we can Robably expect a bounce or range consolidation to follow until the next breakdown... Stay safe, know how to read, and read when it is clear. Am happy to exchange notes if anyone sees another perspective. Looking forward to comments...
TVC:STI
by Auguraltrader
DBS keeps breaking down in small steps...Really painful to see a large (relative to Singapore) bank break down slowly like that... Technically, it reeks of a bearish bias, but is not advancing with commitment. Instead is slowly breaking down the supports, from the trendline to the widening wedge, and yesterday, a critical level to close at a lower low (after a lower high weeks ago). It is possible for a short bounce to 20.80 now, but downside bias remains, probably to continue after a bit of consolidation, if at all. As DBS is a main component of the Strats Times Index, STI, there is correlation in the apparent weakness.
SGX:D05
by Auguraltrader
STI broke down just today.Quick but significant development today... the STI weakened to clock lower low (close). In doing so, it had broken down below the widening wedge support with a decisive candle to end the day. It failed the retest of the 55EMA on Wednesday and broke down today (Thursday). The next couple of trading days would be significant as it should be heading about another 30-40 points lower before looking for a bounce off the support level, to retest the support turned resistance line of the widening wedge, at best bullish case. MACD is bearish but not waterfall inducing bearish, more like a slow bleed out. 2560 support needs to hold up, else downside target is marked.
TVC:STIShort
by Auguraltrader
STI confirms a Lower High, looking for Lower LowThe STI had a bit of a ranging week but was dragged down slightly. No bull in sight, nor bullish opportunity as yet another lower high was registered. Previously marked (yellow ellipse) of the first lower high, another lower high was registered last week (fuschia ellipse). And last week’s movement was very significant in foretelling the underlying sentiment. This was the second failure of the 55EMA in July, breaking down into a support range, and MACD is crossing down into the bearish territory (today at current levels). I had adjusted the widening wedge support to the most open level, and this morning (Monday) the STI is testing that support. Breaking down and out of this widening wedge is very ominous for the STI as there would be a deeper downside target. UNLESS, over this week, there is a huge rally that brings the STI to bounce off the support and rally upwards, there is currently a bearish bias for the week. Having said that, the momentum is not signaling the risk of a waterfall, but appears likely to retest the support it broke in the coming weeks. The system has had a Sell signal since 15 June and had not triggered the training stop despite a rather wide range for the past four weeks. Checking back, it is worthy to note that previous related published ideas are correct ; if at all, 5 July published idea of the bulls return was short lived (on a weekly basis). Do click on the little triangles on the top of the candles for quick reference! IF anyone can see a decent bullish case, do leave a comment and share. I only say it as I see it , and am open to other perspectives if there are any valid scenarios. Truly appreciate your comments. Have a good week ahead...
TVC:STIShort
by Auguraltrader
STI is telling a GE story...It is Singapore’s General Election and today is Polling Day. And like previous elections, (2016 US Elections, 2019 Indonesia Elections) there has been some correlation between the equity market with the election outcome. This is based on the collective consciousness, institutional positioning and the retail market sentiment, 0us a huge dose of critical thinking of multiple parameters. And it cumulates into technicals as an indicator. From the STI daily chart, we saw that the recent rally from below the 55EMA continue into this week, and then suddenly reversed as the short week went by. There was no major events nor data this week for Singapore, and that provided some clarity in the technicals forming from sentiment. The STI technicals started turning bearish with a candlestick Bearish Dark Cloud Cover pattern mid-week, which was reiterated with a bearish engulfing again, a day before Singapore headed to the polls. A favorable MACD cross into the bullish territory is now at risk of reversal, and technically looks like there is a higher probability towards a post-election sell off. With historical trends, the incumbent party should still continue to win, but not by a landslide, and the technicals suggests a huge dent in the percentage win... projected to be about 62-63% overall win margin. Given that 2020 has been a year of many unprecedented outcomes, a possible risk of <60% win margin (59%) might be the downside risk. This is what the chart is telling... no expected landslide, and a dent in confidence; hence the market appear to be positioning itself already. Let us see...
TVC:STIShort
by Auguraltrader
Bulls are back at the STIThe STI broke down the week before, and suddenly a reversal to rally came back for later part of the week, closing the week with a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, and keeping inside the (adjusted) widening wedge. Technically, the weekly chart is bullish, with current candlestick pattern being bullish, there may be an attempt to work towards meeting the 55EMA, or at least near the last high. Over the next couple of weeks. Note also, that for the coming week, Friday is polling day for the General Elections and it is expected for the incumbent government to continue being in charge. Hence, likely to follow through with a bullish market for the coming two weeks, at least. As for the downside target, it has to be put on hold for now, obviously.
TVC:STILong
by Auguraltrader
STI just broke down; possible target at 2000The STI daily chart shows technical break via a Gap Down of: 1. A supporting trendline; 2. Out of a bear rally wedge; 3. Failed the 55EMA; and 4. MACD broke down into the bear territory This appears to be a rather strong conviction of the weakness of the STI and projections indicate 2500 as the next and critical support. Failing which 2200, and consequently 2000. This follows a previous warning that the STI was about to turn and form a top, which it did. Note that the STI appears to be inherently weaker than most indices, partly due to its components consisting of mainly financials, with very few technology, and increasing contribution of REITs.
TVC:STIShort
by Auguraltrader
Here we go... Straits Times Index topping outAs pre-emoted recently, the STI wiped out 5 sessions of gains in just 1 session yesterday. And this happened before the US and global markets moved down strongly due to “second wave” of COVID-19 in the USA. This, in my humble opinion, is actually the extension tail of the initial wave as there was no break. Coming back to the STI, there should be a follow through, with a slight bounce, but should end much lower. Meeting the 55EMA in the gap support zone should offer some supporting bounce, only to fail later in the month. MACD is turning down, but not yet firmed, although the trailstop is already broken for a downtrend. Worthy to note, the green dotted line was the target for the past rally to break above for a trend change. Unfortunately, it did not manage despite a valiant effort. This suggests that the (down)trend resumes to be in force.
TVC:STIShort
by Auguraltrader
Warning that STI is about to turn!Any day now, by the end of the week, the Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) is ready to turn. Yesterday’s candlestick pattern looks bad, and note the red dotted line . This level was required to be exceeded IF it is to resume bullish trend, and clearly it missed by a big margin despite a spectacular run up. 2750 is the immediate support and breaking down means there is a closure of a previous gap, which is bearish. Thereafter, the orange ellipse area is the next battle. Meanwhile, there is likely to have some volatility up and down, so be cautious until breakdown. Heads up!
TVC:STI
by Auguraltrader
Bottoms UPSometimes, when your life is too routine and the things you are exposed to are more or less the same, you become complacent. Go to work, come home, cook dinner, play games, sleep. Repeat and rinse. In trading/investment, it can be the same as well. If you stick to your own local markets, the companies that are very familiar with (strong brand name, you are the customers for years, good review, etc), then you might missed out good opportunities. Good opportunities such as markets in Thailand, Korea, Japan and Malaysia. For STI (SG market), it has only rebound from the bottom of 23 March around 22%. If you do some research, reading the news, etc you would know that these markets are faring better than STI. They went up on average 43% from the bottom. Why wouldn't one want to make more money given the same time frame? Risks? Unless you are venturing into the stocks in these countries which your broker might charge for a higher commission and custody fee, you are better off looking at the ETFs in these countries. KLSE index (Malaysia) is EWM ETF Japan index is Nikkei 225 index (futures) which most platforms will have or EWJ ETF SET index (Thailand) is THD ETF KOSPI index (Korea) is EWF ETF Please do your own due diligence as the above is an example only. There are many ETFs that invest in these countries that offer different components mix and expenses. You want to look for one that offers the lowest . I remain cautiously bullish on Asia markets now that the various countries are slowly reopening their economies and businesses are coming back as well. The consumers would still have to accept some inconvenience like putting on masks, keeping a social distance, no dine in at food outlets,etc. Other than that, being able to resume back to their pre-Covid 19 days is liberating for many who find staying at home stressful and suffocating. Again, this chart is not exhaustive as comparing all available tradeable Asian countries would make the charts looks confusing. So , feel free to make your own index and/or ETFs comparison and decide if investing outside of your country is worthwhile, offering you a better ROI, etc.
TVC:STILong
by dchua1969