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Stochasticanalysis

$AUDCAD | Sell Trade | Market Exec | Technical Confluences: - Price actions are now at Stochastic Overbought conditions in Daily, H4 and H1 - Price action is at the 78% Fibo retracement levels which also coincides with a Interest Zone Fundamental Confluences: - Both currencies are considered as commodity currencies and both currencies require strong commodity prices to prosper and it all comes down to growth - Australia's growth is more concentrated on China's outlook and Canada's very US-centric still. - We are still not seeing much growth momentum in the China space and with US-side having a soft landing possibility, Canada's prospects should be better at the moment ----- Will be taking a position into a sell OANDA:AUDCAD position. Targeting to TP approximately half the position at the 50% Fibo Extension levels (in blue) and move my SL levels to B/E. It will depend on how the price action is at the 50% Fibo's Interest Zone. This trade will be the battle of the Interest Zones. Full TP are the 61%/78% Fibo Extension levels. Remember, DYOR.
Short
by weekendanalyst
QQQ Stochastic Phase PlaneThis chart maps out the territories QQQ will trade in, I use stochastic analysis. I've included the results of the previous moves to show how accurate this method is. For a high level description: - the colored funnel extending from a peak or valley is the local territory price will trade in - the trajectories of the same color of a territory are the expected paths that create the territory, the circles are the highest probability levels price is expected to trade in a a given time (you can see these hit exactly on numerous occasions) - the boxes are target ranges for the respective move (color coded), thick boxes are target range 2. Target range 1 is always the expected scenario, with target range 2 being a lower probability scenario -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ has just made a legitimate breakout above 366 and is trading with respect to the parallel blue channel. Notice in the previous move price stays within channel, which is common except for big breakouts or breakdowns. Most Bullish Case : 408 by 1/2/2024 Conservative Bullish Case : 408 by 2/23/2024 ** In both bullish cases QQQ needs to trade above or inside the blue parallel channel - a break below that channel opens the door for a crash setup to 324 minimum These bullish cases still allow for a near-term pullback Minimum pullback : test of the upper blue channel for support MOST LIKELY PULLBACK : to a confluence target of 369 by 11/30/2023 (4-5% drop) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- After this pullback there are 2 scenarios: 1) Continue higher to 400s in 2024 2) Bounce to make lower high and then drop to at least 340s in early 2024 ( this is the expected scenario ) The stock market is a stochastic process, so I'll share updates when necessary.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by JerryManders
11
Semi-Critical Decision Here: Potential for 32580This is an update for my markov analysis of BTCUSD (2 updates preceeded this which are linked as related ideas and describe the concept and methodology). I will keep this one simple and you can refer to the previous ideas for details. BTC has been following this pretty nicely and any anomalous leaps over 1 transition state in a truncated period have been punished with equal and opposite reactions back to the regular path progression of transitioning 1-state per time period. The next 3 levels I am seeing are ranked with highest probability (very near term, this week - from there will update accordingly but 1 of the levels could create a change of character or at least initiate the start of one: Most likely next stop: 30795 (if this occurs in will have to make a more critical decision to consolidate and breakout locally or to reject and retest the 2800s for possible breakdown Second most likely next stop on the condition 30795 is broken is 32758 - this would open the door for the initiation of the change of character because it would be synonymous to jumping across a creek for those familiar with wyckoff. I would expect an explosive break right through 30795 if this path plays out. Third most likely is down from here to 28905 , at which point it would test support again and if there is enough pressure could break down and threaten the dreaded 23k (not really dreaded because that would merely set up for the next motive wave, however, this isn't an EWT analysis - this is a local analysis to examine how BTC is navigating this consolidation range in a stochastically-sophisticated way. Probability does not favor a sharp drop from here, rather, slightly bullish price action which could get the ball rolling for a bullish week in the market due to BTC/ES correlation that has become pretty apparent recently: BTC wears the pants in this relationship. Best, Judge Judy
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by JerryManders