[09/14] Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis
Before the CPI announcement yesterday, Bitcoin continued to renew its high point, showing a strong rise.
However, the CPI announcement was above and the source Cpi was twice as high as expected, resulting in a strong fall
Coincidentally, after rebounding to the edge of the downward trend line from 69k, that's exactly where the very big drop started.
In an instant, it fell more than $1,000, and NASDAQ also began to fall strongly, eventually, NASDAQ fell more than 6%, and Bitcoin fell nearly 13% as it reached 19.8k.
In terms of transaction volume, it occurred stronger than when it rose steadily, reaching the top line of triangular convergence that was formed before, and is supported in the section.
It's showing a little short-term rebound, but it's resisting in the Fibonacci 0.236 position of the decline, and I don't think we should predict the direction hastily.
The support line hanging below is likely to be supported on each line of the triangular convergence upper line and the lower line, and if this section is broken, it will be 18.5k and then 17.6k.
Bitcoin's one-day candle 533 Stocastic came down strongly, bending its head from the top, but it hasn't come down half yet.
The same goes for NASDAQ Stocastic 533.
(Stocastics is an auxiliary indicator such as RSI.
If the index value is at the top, it is likely to fall, and if the index value is at the bottom, it can be interpreted as overselling (highly likely to rise)
I think we need to check the closing of the main salary.
If last week's beekeeping peak appears, I think we should keep in mind the 17.6k low point renewal.
Stochasticoscillator
Nas100 Late Night IdeaI had issues publishing my markup on the 5 minute so yall could exactly see what i was trying to get at, but this will do anyways. So im interested in buying at my line marked orange. If you notice, my stoch indicator is really spread apart because its showing me the price for 1 hour which helps me better than having two charts on one screen. So anyways, the stoch is undersold (?), and my moving average should break soon, and if price breaks that range i would definitely ride up to my take profit line.
$TSLA - What happens in the red circle? Low risk 9/16 putsWhile I usually use candle charts, sometimes I switch to line charts for better perspective. On the weekly you can see:
* resistance at 50sma ~298.40, price is there
* white down trend line is ~308-310
* price already reversed from 50ma, tested 20sma, and put in a big upward move this week (reason for caution on puts)
Look at the yellow circle on RSI (14 day). It tested 50 and is back up. If RSI closes above 50 today, then a trade above today's high negates RSI support for puts. It could still rise and move down later Monday or Tuesday, but support from RSI will be weak.
Stochastic - %K is red in the yellow circle however as seen on the left we cannot expect it will immediately turn down. I like %D, gray line, which has already dipped once and is now up again. This is a good time to buy puts - put options are cheaper when bought as price is rising. You can look left and see that %D will zig zag in the process of %K turning down from over 80 (or turning up from under 20).
Remember this is a weekly chart. Choose when you take profits. Today I am keeping the position as long as price stays below 289. My risk thus is very low since I bought when TSLA was ~298.30. Since I carry the risk of a gap or move higher on Monday I have a very small position to hold over the weekend.
I have support on the 30m chart - directional buying volume is elevated (buyer exhaustion) and both 5ema and price are above the Keltner channel. On the daily chart today is the 4th green candle while 10ema is still below 20sma. If today the candle closes above 200sma I see a good possibility that price at least pulls back on Monday.
Nas100 4hr MarkupMarkup based solely off of 4hr time frame.
Marked up a couple zones that looked like good areas of structure due to where price has been previously. Also, marked up a possible channel pattern. Will be considering jumping to the lower timeframe to look for good areas to buy at.
Confluences would be: stochastic, candlesticks, and bottom of channel.
Ethereum Flashes Golden Cross Signal for Second Time in 2022Ethereum (ETH) printed a widely followed bullish signal on its daily chart that calls for more upside ahead. This technical pattern can signal a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish, and we're likely to experience higher prices.
ETH Golden Cross
The golden cross is a moving average crossover strategy triggered when the 50-day simple moving average crosses above either the 200-day or 100-day simple moving average. This is the second time that Ethereum has printed the golden cross signal this year.
The first golden cross signal occurred in mid-April, but it failed to lead to higher prices. However, the first failed attempt can be a positive sign now, because we’re less probable to get the same buy signal twice and fail in both instances. However, given the overall market bearish circumstances, there is still a relatively high chance of failure.
Some research suggests that the golden cross has about a 64% success rate.
Short-Term Oversold Readings
In the short term, we can see that ETH's price is oversold, at least according to the stochastic indicator. Additionally, the sell-off from the $2,000 big round number appears to have found support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level measured against the rally from the mid-June low.
The 50% Fibonacci level is currently at the $1,455 level, and below that, we have the $1,280 intermediate support level that intersects a rising trendline.
Looking forward: As long as the support levels hold, the bulls have another chance to try to reclaim the $2,000 psychological level.
BTC Macro Entry Reversal Strategy. Highest risk return.Entry point for BTC based on momentum reversing out of the bear market. For those trading on confirmation and solid risk reward ratios.
Find a safe bottom, not necessarily the lowest price.
Strategy
1. The major buy signal comes when the first Heikin Ashi 1M closes green. (This was once printed in June 2014. But a high RSI would falsify the signal trigger)
2. Looking deeper into the MACD . We want to see a shorter Histogram close in the monthly. (Where a histogram peak is formed)
3. This is usually confirmed by a healthy sign of the Stoch RSI closing blue over orange.
4. If you're even more conservative. After the signal, I'd wait for an spike in volume.
Notes.
- My personal prediction is that BTC falls 85% towards 11k. However the strategy is triggered at a price the market has decided. The most important part is the risk adjusted return.
- The strategy is best aligned to Lump Sum entry.
- The histogram will peak. It's a matter of when. Therefore I'm not interested in the price.
- I suggest replaying BTCUSD in past cycles on standard bars to see how the bars are printed. (H-A won't work on replay)
- The strategy only has 2 major data points. I'd prefer 3. But the higher time frames install greater confidence.
Tickers and Indicators.
- BTCUSD INDEX 1M, HeikinAshi.
- RSI and Stoch RSI .
- MACD with histogram.
USD/CAD Shorts trade plan 25 July 2022Structure:
- H4 downstrend
- D divergence playing effect and break of prev daily low
- W stochs crossed down showing support to overall bias
1. Div - m30 /m5/ m3 (3)
2. stoch cross downs - M45, H1, H2 (3)
3. MA bounces - H3/H4 (2)
Enter with pending stops below prev higher low (HL) to be safe and go for a simple 1:3 or 1:4.
Note to self: >= 5 confluences to have the confidence to execute already, don't need to overthink it
NZD/USD Longs trade plan 25 July 2022Structure:
- H4 uptrend
- D candles broke all previous highs and showing momentum
- W stochs crossed up to show support to buy set ups along the way
1. Div - m3/m5 (2)
2. stoch cross ups - M45, H1, H2 (3)
3. MA bounces - M15, M30, H2 (3)
Enter with pending stops above prev lower high (LH) to be safe and go for a simple 1:3 or 1:4.
Note to self: >= 5 confluences to have the confidence to execute already, don't need to overthink it
BNB/BTCHi investors and traders,
BNB/BTC setup looking good for an ATH.
To support this idea check my previous BTC/USD which is shows the bottom was in. At least for short term.
Oscillators looking good.
Forming a bullish pattern with good probability to break out.
Price action above 21 EMA on 2 weeks which is so powerful.
Correlated with BTC dominance price, DXY chart, BTC chart and ETH/BTC will follow, it seems that the markets want a bounce (maybe a bear market rally) until the end of year.
VET/USD - weekly chart updateLooking at the VET/USD 1 week chart we can see that VET is in a massive Falling Wedge Pattern. A Falling Wedge Pattern is potentially a Bullish Reversal Pattern. Note that the APEX of the Falling Wedge Pattern is located around the end of October 2023. A weekly candle CLOSE BELOW the Lower Converging Trend-line can easily invalidate this pattern as we saw with the previous weekly Rising Wedge Pattern that got invalidated.
Here is a closer look at this VET/USD weekly chart:
At the moment of typing this, VET is still way below its 50MA, 100MA and 200MA. For the downside, be on the lookout for if/when the 50MA crosses UNDER the 100MA on this 1 week timeframe. For the upside, be on the lookout for if/when VET crosses back above its 200MA and successfully re-test it as support.
VET is also still way below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) for this 1 week timeframe. For the upside, be on the lookout for if/when VET crosses back ABOVE and COLSES a weekly candle ABOVE its LSMA creating a BUY Signal for this indicator on this 1 week timeframe, also look out for any successfully re-test as support.
VET is still way below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for this 1 week timeframe. Note that both the Middle and Lower Bands are pointing downwards and the Upper Band is sideways at the moment. For the mid to longterm, VET needs to cross back ABOVE and CLOSE ABOVE its BB Middle Band Basis.
Looking at VETs longterm Modified Schiff Pitchfork Pattern, we can see that VET is still way below its Pitchfork Median Line and has also found resistance from its Lower Green Resistance Line.
Looking at the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool, we can see what levels VET has above and below it as potential Support and Resistance. Note that the 1 ($0.01845) Trend-Based Fib Extension Level is located roughly where the 78.60% ($0.1811) Fib Retracement Level is located.
Looking at the Fib Retracement we can see that VET has the 78.60% ($0.01811) and 100% ($0.0857) Fib retracement Levels as potential support.
I have added to areas of Support which i believe are of great interest as highlighted by the Horizontal Black Lines with Blue Shading. We can clearly see that VET has found strong Support from its first Support Area. The longer VET stays and keeps re-testing this area with lower highs, the more the support volume will be chipped away and VET will potentially drop further to its next support cluster.
The Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) is located at $0.004946 and you can see the increased volume cluster located from around $0.00857 to $0.00287. If VET drops to that level, we can expect a huge buying opportunity to cause a spike up.
As you can see on this weekly chart, Traded Volume has been low since around Jun 2021 compared to what VET was getting from July 2018 to May 2021.
Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is increasing with the ADX (Orange Line) rising to 17.129 and above its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) at 15.182. Note that Negative Momentum has dropped with the -DI (Red Line)at 28.041. Positive Momentum has also dropped with the +DI (Green Line) to 16.636.
Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is still in the Negative Zone under the 0.0 Base Line and has been in the Negative Zone since the week of the 13th Dec 2021. Note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is slight curving upwards so be on the lookout if the MACD Line (Blue Line) crosses back above the Signal Line (Orange Line) creating a Buy Signal on this 1 week timeframe for this indicator.
Looking At the Stochastic Indicator (STOCH) we can see that the %K (Blue Line) is still under its %D (Orange Line) and both lines are deep in the Oversold Zone and has been for the last 10 weeks. What is interesting is that VET has been in the Oversold zone a few times on this weekly timeframe and on 3 previous occasions VET has spent about 15-16 Weeks in this Oversold Zone before rising above 20. Could be one to watch.
I still believe that there is a huge possibility that BTC will hit $12K especially with inflation and the recession we are in, if that happens then we can expect VET to at least WICK DOWN to its 2nd Support Area which is located by its 100% ($0.0857) Fib Retracement Level and its 1.414 ($0.096) Trend-Based Fib Extension Level.
I would not get excited on tis weekly chart unless VET closes and successfully re-test as support its LSMA. For the Longterm, wee need VET to break back above and CLOSE a weekly candle ABOVE its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis and 200MA.
Once this world recession is over and the Governments, The FED, The Bank of England ect ect have completely cleaned up from inflation and whatever else, then the Market Makers will eventually decide that the Path of Least Resistance to Profit is upwards. So once this recession and financial/crypto bear market is over, be it in a year, 2, or even 5 to 10 years. You need to position yourself to be able to buy back in on your crypto of choice and take full advantage of the next parabolic wave up.
This is all just my opinion so please do your own research as its your money.
I have tried to cram quite a lot in this post as this will probably be my last longterm VET/USD weekly chart post for a while unless something major happens so I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
Bouncing on POCAVGO has returned to its post-March 2020 point of control.
Stepping down a time frame to the daily chart, we can see a cluster of Dojis. Combined with volume falling under the 50day average, MACD crossing its signal, and Stoch recovering from oversold shows hesitation in the selloff.
An aggressive trade would be to enter now, while a more conservative entry would be above the support or resistance zone just north of the 21EMA.
Is INTC getting ready to break its channel?As with most stocks, INTC has been in a bearish trend beginning this year. Recently it has entered into a neat downward channel. Following the last test of the channel upper bound (denoted by the blue flag), a substantial decline occurred. This decline ended with a volume spike against the lower bound.
The last test of the lower bound (denoted by the green flag) is strikingly different than the previous. It lacked a volume spike and did not push the Stoch or MACD to new lows. In fact, during the latest retracement up, both indicators flashed signals of a bullish divergence.
It seems likely that this retracement following the latest lower bound will take us at least to the upper bound, if not break the channel.
4hr support zone and 15 minute descending triangle!EurJpy: On the left side (4hr chart), you are able to see a support level that was hit multiple times. This support line is an attractive spot for all traders that analyze the chart. This level can either hold and push the price up or break and push the price down. On the 15-minute chart, you are able to see a descending triangle forming. Wait for the triangle to form and a higher high to take place. This trade can also go to the downside. that is if the triangle is broken to the downside which means the 4hr chart wants to break that support line. Indicators on the 4hrs match up with the descending triangle. They want to push the price higher.
Confluence example - 5 reasons to sellWe have trendline that connects highs and price is trending down. We also see resistance zone formation that price tested 3 times. On the 3rd
touch price also tested the trendline and formed bearish candlestick pattern. Stochastic indicator worked
well as it gave another confirmation so sell (red circle).
1. Downtrend
2. Trendline
3. Resistance
4. Bearish Candles
5. Stochastick Osc.
REQUEST: Set alert on Hiken-Ashi RSI Percent K line.A member of TV asked a question about how to set an alter for the HARSI indiciator and wanted to know how to get an alert each time the Stochastic %K line passes down crosss the 20.00 value.
You can use the same method when it crosses up from below the -20.00. You just need to add a ( - ) sign into your "value"
@Sandra117
$NVAX starting its run?With main confluence from MACD , Stochastics, RSI and MTF EMA's, I am expecting a run to 69.28. Momentum looks to be rising on the Daily, but if you look closer on January 26th we see divergence on the MACD indicator (Orange). While price reached a low at that time, MACD has been steadily rising. Price has been driven lower through this time but MACD has been rising. This in connection with the RSI's and Stochastic's tell's me we are starting to see the run up. I committed to this trade on the 6th of June and don't plan on selling until profit target of 69.28.
Depending on momentum once we've reached there, I will close part of my position to allow a possible ride to the golden pocket of the Fibonnaci indicator of .618
Ideally, this is a very technical play, I think with momentum showing to be on the higher side we should see a nice steady run up over the coming next week.
Stay tuned
Im working on an indicator that will help visualize market volatility and momentum. The goal of the indicator is to help you understand current market strength which direction it's favoring.
Before releasing, I am going to fine tune the indicator further to make it more profitable per back testing with python.
I'll release this indicator once it's ready at free cost for a limited time only.
BABA LONGKeltner Channel is looking upward which is typically a good set up for long position.
RSI just bounced back from level 50 and is going to cross the signal line again. Hopefully aiming for the overbought zone.
MACD seems to be losing strength but always above the signal line.
Moreover having a look at EMA we can see that 6EMA crossed up 18EMA which crossed up the 50EMA. It could be a hint bullish momentum.
Stochastic and Bollinger bands seem to confirm previous situation.
We put the entry price above yesterdays closing price just to have some margin because of the premarket price which is at 106.6 at the moment while writing.
ENTRY: 107 YELLOW
SL: 100.73 RED
TP: 119.5 GREEN
[Signal] EURJPY: Safe Haven PlayFX:EURJPY
Timeframe: H1
Direction: Short
Technical Confluences for Trade:
- Price action at Resistance of Ascending Channel
- Stochastic Overbought momentum
- Widening of the EMAs
Fundamental Confluences for Trade:
- There is some risk with EUR spiking higher due to the rising inflation situation in Europe but at the same time, global inflation pressure is starting to leave a drag on growth. Risk assets may continue to take a beating and may see some safe haven plays.
- Inflationary pressure is starting to pick up in Japan; may see a change in BOJ's monetary stance (reducing the yield differential between the US and Japan)
Suggested Trade:
Entry @ Area of Interest 139.70 - 140.50
SL: 140.92
TP1: 139.25 (move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved)
TP2: 137.85
RR: Approx. 3.30 (Depending on Entry Level)
May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D
*This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.