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Stochasticoscillator

(SPY) Bears, the market may move lower: careful of the look backAMEX:SPY In this video I go over very general market conditions and express my bear case on the SPY using some simple indicators. This is not financial advise and was created for entertainment and educational purposes only. Do not use this video and its contents as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security, the opinions expressed are of my own and should be taken with a grain of salt. No one person is always right (or wrong)- please do your own TA and DD when making any financial decisions in the market. A stock guru I know once told me "price action is king" and I took it to heart. Ignore the noise, be simple, look at the chart and let it speak to you. The video is really only supplemental information to pair with the post below (which is much more detailed): The SPY is coming off a very strong bearish candle close at $412. This marked a range from the previous 4 months with a top of range of $479.98 - closing the month of April's candle -14.33% or -$68.77. This 4 month move countered 8 months worth of price discovery - or in other words, a 1 year reset button was just pushed. Rewind. Monthly Time Frame: Stochastic shows neutral, room for buyers and sellers The 200 is trading below the 50, signaling a bull market - don't isolate this thought though The monthly candle that just closed pushed well past the 12 EMA - which acted as support on the previous 3 months candles (as seen as a slice of the candle wicks/shadows) Weekly Timeframe: Stochastic shows oversold slightly. On this time frame the SO seems to be much more sensitive on the oversold side than the overbought. Bears should keep this in mind when considering short term reversals or lookbacks. The weekly candle printed below the 50 SMA, 12/26 EMA, but above its 200 SMA. The 50 SMA (low) attempted support but ultimately failed. The Daily print closing below closing levels of April 2020 There was also a 12/26 EMA cross under that developed in the last daily print - this could signal a stronger downside that is to come. 3 Day Time Frame: Very similar to the weekly with one big difference lying in the 12/26 crossunder which happened Feb 10 and a look back rally that pushed through (but failed to maintain) in late March. May Sept Dec 21' and Feb 22' all produced similar 3day prints that were follow by a bull rally - do be careful of these rally periods as the SPY continues its downward trend as they will come because the price never goes straight up or down. The Stochastic is again showing signs of being very sensitive to oversold conditions. Oct 21', Jan Feb and March 22' all show a rally after touching the oversold mark. 1 Day Time Frame: This is where the picture becomes a little more clear IMO. The daily print is now below the 200 and 50 SMA set, and the 12/26 EMA still - both the 12 under the 26 and 50 under the 200 - technically a bear market (unlike the 1M, 1W, and 3D showing the 50 over 200) The first overhead EMA is the 12 which could be looked to as resistance upon a lookback. The 50 SMA (low) should also be noted, as it seemed to have provided support April 12th - 18th. This support is now considered resistance. Stochastic showing oversold, and again showing sensitivity to these conditions as compared to its counter This is IMO the most important line of support/resistance you can find - not just for the SPY but for the entire market. The ULTIMATE crash will come with confirmation of the break below. Mark this line on your charts and consider it for the future. This is the bottom of 08' that created support, switched to resistance in 11' which confirmation of its strength in 18' and 20'. It was only during a recovery(?) that it was broken. Time will tell if resistance is now support - we do not know yet because it has not been tested. My gut says it will provide some, but very little resistance when the time comes. This is what that line looks like relative to the daily for context - the current price is roughly $20 away of -5% from this line of "assumed" support. This is not a hard feat IMO for bears to look at as a price target in the short term. This would be in the $390-400 range. If you consider the 3 day chart in relation you will notice the 200 SMA set has a H-C-L of 387.26, 382.71, 376.92, respectively. This could be a lower PT that bears could be looking to. Additional levels to consider to the downside would be a range of 405-411 in the near short term. Really, considering the gap found on April 1st to April 5th that range could be extended to 400 before support could start to be used. There is no real structure here though, the next structure is found in the lower 390s. Lookbacks could happen at any time, but patterns lately show lots of doji and morning star reversals that tend to give us a heads up. Again, nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Lookback levels I would consider would be on the Daily time frame at the 50 and 200 SMA sets 50 SMA: 437.19, 433.28, 428.68 200 SMA: 450.98, 448.15, 445.13 Also, I would consider the pivots at 437.20 and 461.55 as resistance in the case of a rally Conclusion: I expect continuation of bearish pressure with short lived look back rallies. The market overall IMO is not topped out just yet and we very well may see higher highs before lower lows in the short term. Even though I do think a crash is imminent, I do believe there is room for bulls to take short control. Mainly do to oversold conditions that show lots of sensitivity. That said, there is also no indication of a bottom just yet either. Almost all signs point down. Remember, and this is the last time, nothing goes up or down forever - expect turbulence. I think the SPY will go down to $400 to at least test, and perhaps even lower to the 370s before a bottom is found. You all have a wonderful trading week and best of luck to all those in the market!
AMEX:SPYShort
by OccamsPhazer
2
VET/USDVeChain update: As with most cryptos, downwards pressure is still dominant. VET is still in a Descending Channel, VET broke above the Descending Channel on the 3rd of March but quickly came back down and closed back inside the Descending Channel so the Descending Channel is still valid. VET is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on this 1d timeframe. Note that we have expansion of the Lower Bollinger Band and this expansion is for negative momentum. VET is getting very close to its Least squares Moving Average (LSMA) indicator, a close below the LSMA will be considered a sell signal on this 1 day timeframe for this indicator. VET is still below its Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) for this charts Visible Range. VET is still below its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the Fixed Range of 11x daily candles that i have selected. I have added various Support and Resistance areas s highlighted by the Horizontal Blue Line with Yellow Shading. Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is sideways at the moment and still under the 0.0 Base Line in the Negative Zone. If the MACD Line (Blue Line) crosses back under the Signal Line (Orange Line) then that will be considered a sell signal for this indicator on this 1 day timeframe. Not that the last 3 Green Histograms have lightened and lessoned in size indication a weakening of positive momentum. Note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) has not been in the Positive Zone above the 0.0 Base Line since the 21st Nov 2021 on this 1 day timeframe. Looking at the Stochastic Indicator (STOCH) we can see that momentum is downwards at the moment and note that the %K Line (Bluer Line) is still below its %D Line (Orange Line) on this 1 day timeframe. Important to note that the %K (Blue Line) still has plenty of room to drop much more before becoming Oversold on this 1 day timeframe. Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the trend strength is very weak with the ADX (Orange Line) under its 20 Threshold at 19.23 and still under its 9 Period EMA (Black line) which is at 21.60. Note that Positive Momentum has dropped its the +DI (Green Line) dropping to 19.26. Negative Momentum is still dominant but has dropped to 23.63. Here is a wider look at this VET/USD 1 day chart so you can see the previous VPVR POC area: I still think that BTC will hit $24k this year, if that is the case & if downwards pressure continues and VET breaks below its $0.0389 support then i think we will see VET hit around $0.0293 - $0.0282 as that area is VET’s previous very strong VPVR POC area. At the moment, the Market Makers have decided that the path of least resistance to profit is still downwards, this goes for most stocks, Indices and Cryptos. As we know BTC is following the downwards momentum of the stock market and all alts are following BTC. I closed all my crypto trades back in Dec 2021, luckily still in profit. I have only had 1 crypto trade on since which i closed at a 10% profit, that was a VTHO/USDT trade. I am positioning myself to fully be able to buy back in on my various cryptos of choice when the time arises because bear markets do not last forever. I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
BINANCE:VETUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
VTHO/USDVTHO update and a quick look to the future opportunities that may arise, not just VTHO but all crypto assets, because downtrends don’t last forever. Here is a closer look at this VTHO 1 day chart. At the moment VTHO is below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1 day timeframe. A daily close below the LSMA is considered a sell signal. At the moment, VTHO is fighting to stay above its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on this 1 day timeframe. If VTHO closes below the BB Basis and re-test it as resistance then we should expect VTHO to drop to its BB Lower Band level. VTHO is below its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) fro the fixed range of 5x daily candles that i have selected. Zoomed out on this 1 day VTHO chart, the Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) is around $0.001480. For your viewing pleasure i have added various support and resistance areas as highlighted by the Horizontal Black Lines with Yellow shading. I have also added 2 descending support lines (Blue Lines on chart). If we look at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI), we can see that Positive Momentum has dropped with the +DI (Green Line) dropping to 24.29 but Negative Momentum has also dropped with the -DI (Red Lien dropping to 19.04. The Trend Strength is weak with the ADX (Orange Line) at 19.19 and still under its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) and now under the 20 Threshold. We need the +DI (Green Line) to stay above the -DI (Red Line) on this 1 day timeframe, if not then further downwards momentum will continue. If we look at the STOCHASTIC Indicator (STOCH) we can see that momentum is slightly upwards but i would say sideways within a range at the moment with the %K Line (Blue Line) still under its %D (Orange Line) which is a further sign of upwards strength weakness. Not that the %K Line (Blue Line) still has room to drop before becoming Oversold on this 1 day timeframe. Be on the lookout for when the %K Line (Blue Line) strongly crosses back above the %D (Orange Line) on strong volume. At the moment, like most other cryptos, VTHO is under the influence of BTC. With this mid to potentially long term downtrend, a lot of opportunities will soon arise because downtrends don’t last forever. Previous Volume POCs will potentially become new POCs and become area of strong volume control, be tested again as support and if it holds, it can again offer opportunities to allow you to acquire your crypto of choice at an unbelievable discount. From the 9th Feb 2021 to 16th April 2021, VTHO did a massive rise from its POC starting around $0.00145 and eventually rising to $0.02738………. That is around a 1794% move up! You want to buy near the BOTTOM of that 1794% and sell near the TOP of the 1794% This is just my opinion but a lot of people seem to get caught up in the hype of BTC and ETH and foolishly ignore the low cap coins that can potentually offer much higher returns and i believe that cryptos like VTHO and a few others can offer that once again, especially after this downtrend is over, even if that downtrend takes a year or 2 because we have to factor in what is happening to the economy at the moment, because like it or not, when the stock market crashes……. BTC and most other cryptos will follow. Diversification is key. I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
by TradingThroughTheLens
VET/USDVeChain Update VeChain had broke out of its previous Falling Wedge Pattern but is still in a downwards channel. VeChain failed 4x to close above its sideways Pitchfork Median Line (A,B,C). VeChain has closed below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1 day timeframe. Note that a close below the LSMA is considered a sell signal. At the moment, VeChain has found support from its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA. A close below the BB Basis and re-test as resistance will be further confirmation of continued downwards momentum on this 1 day timeframe. Note that VeChain is still below its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the fixed range of 10x daily candles that i have selected. Note that VeChain is still below its Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) fro this charts visible range. Volume is still low on this Binance chart and the last 4x daily Volume Bars have closed below its Volume 20 Period MA. I have added some areas of potential support as highlighted by the horizontal Black Lines with Yellow Shading. Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that Negative Momentum has overtaken Positive Momentum on this 1 day timeframe because the -DI (Red Line) has crossed back above the +DI (Green Line). The -DI (Red Line) has risen to 22.81 and the +DI (Green Line) has dropped to 18.72. The trend strength is weakening with the ADX (Orange Line) dropping to 24.14 an it is still below its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 28.46 and is a further sign of weakening trend strength. Looking at the Elders Force Index (EFI) we can see that the bulls have lost a lot of strength but is sideways at the moment, note that the EFI Line (Red Line) is still above the 0 Base Line. Note that the EFI Line (Red Line) has dropped below its 9 Period EMA (Cyan Line) which is a further sign of weakening bull strength. If the EFI (Red Line) crosses below the 0 Base Line then that means that the Bears have taken full control on this 1 day timeframe. Looking at the STOCHASIC indicator (STOCH) we can see that momentum is downwards at the moment and note that the %K Line (Blue Line) is still below its %D Line (Orange Line). Note that the %K Line (Blue Line) is indicating that VeChain still has room to drop before becoming Oversold on this 1d timeframe. Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is point downwards and is still under the 0.0 Base Line in the Negative Zone. The MACD Line (Blue LIne) is still above its Signal Line (Orange Line) so we need to keep an eye on this as if the MACD Line (Blue Line) crosses back below the Signal Line (Orange Line), as this will be a sell signal for this indicator on this 1 day timeframe. There are a few things to look out for if you are uncertain if or when to go long, be on the lookout for a successful daily close above the LSMA, the Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis and The Pitchfork Median Line as well as keeping an eye out for any successful retest of those levels as support. With any rise, you need to also keep an eye on the volume as ideally you want any sustainable rise to be supported by increasing volume strength. Also be on the lookout for if/when VeChain crosses back above the upper descending trend-line of the descending channel as well as any successful retest of that previous resistance as support. So at the moment, it looks like there will be some really good opportunities coming up to acquire more VeChain or your crypto of choice at a much cheaper price. I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
BINANCE:VETUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
NZDUSD: Double top, 50 EMA break and Trend line retest. Quick 3RNU Broke out of a triangle accumulation, with a massive expansion . Its currently formed a double top with divergence at the Camarillia R5,R6 levels, if price breaks the 50 EMA and Cam 5R level it should retest the triangles trend line . 1 hr stochastics are crossing for a move down and 4 hr stochastics are topped and look divergent to me . TPs at middle of expansion/imbalance and at horizontal resistance. I'm keeping my stop pretty tight just above the Cam R6 level allowing a 3:1 RR. This is my first post so ill shout out to Vasilly Trader, who taught me technical analysis . Chris Moody for his Multitime frame stochastics and other gems. And Anderson Guillgapi, Market Magician and pine coder good luck
Short
by Interzona
5
We were right once again, New Bitcoin prediction inc! So this one is a bit more spicy guys!! - I see many possibilities here... but I wanna keep it simple ... The ADX tells that the price is fairly low, compared to being overvalued or undervalued ... But the Stochastic Oscillator proves something different people like the price as it is right now ... Also (they don't know where they wanna go) Our 60.000$ zone is a very strong resistance, and we failed twice now to break it, but the trend is still bullish. The green lines indicates a very bullish sign, and so do the blue lines which is forming our pendant, which means it's soon time for a decision. The cirkel I made, is the moment of truth.. since we touched the strong resitance zone twice now... the third should be imo the most important one, since all our lines are pushing towards eachother. This is the breakout we are looking for! My prediction is we are going down for a bit, to hit the green line, if we break it, we will bounce at the Zone 57.600$ (since we have a strong support zone here), this will be an insanely strong move, which should push Bitcount with enought momentum to find a stance above all the trendlines! and so we will complete the Breakout we were building up to from 3 days ago ... and hit 61.000$ also maybe a new ATH. I would go Long around 57.600$, but wait for the bounce.
Long
by Alexthh
1