Get started

Stock-to-flow

Bitcoin Stock To Flow S2F Next Top ?Sharing my observations here, it may come true, or not... Putting LOG Fibonacci lines on a LOG scale, some things are remarkable! TOP - The first big Bull run after a Halving starts with a rise from the S2F (463d) St. Dev 4x. This is happened already. - Previous 2 occasions, when the S2F (10d) touched the S2F (463d), the major bull run began to start, it hasn't touched (yet) - The top ALWAYS passed the S2F (10d), it hasn't passed yet. Seems to me, the major Bull run still has to come! The 2.3 fib of the 1st top predicted EXACTLY top 2. The 2.3 fib of the 2nd top predicted fairly correctly top 3. On that base we could say top 4 could be around 208K - 215K (Dreaming a bit but if this is correct, the top after that could be higher than 1.4M!) Bottom The LOG Fib 1.65 predicted the next bottom pretty correct! The LOG Fib 2.65 predicted the second next bottom pretty correct as well! According to this, the next bottom could well be around 52K (min around 30K, max around 65K) Timeline Seeing the Timelines, we can see: - Halving starts at 0 (or 5 for the next) - Bullish between 0-2 - Top between 1-2 - Bearish between 2-3 - Bottom between 3-5 We are now just past 1! We'll see how this goes! Cheers! (This is not financial advice, please DYOR)
BNC:BLXLong
by fikira
14
Regression lines suggest the BTC top is around 17k for 2020Moore's law has tought us that historic evolutionary patterns are happening 10 times faster after each new technological or scientific breakthrough when it hits the mainstream public worldwide. This breakthrough is then followed by a parabolic and very bubbly event, only to face a dozens month old bloody correction, while finally allowing the new market to mature as it becomes adopted and globally regulated. The end result causes yesterday's all time highs to become tomorrow's new bottoms. But what history has shown is that only a few select will rank above everything else and this will only take place when the potential promise of a strong vision is fulfilled on a global scale changing humanity's habits in a way we never thought possible. The last time a transition like the one I'm describing above happened was between 1984 and 2020. This has been a time of great change that started when Nasdaq introduced the internet to the world as early as the 1980s. When the Soviet Union was falling and the Berlin wall fell a new world was being reshaped thanks to the start of the internet era. These highlights preceded another historic event 2 decades later. Of course, we've all heard about 9/11 and how it paralized the entire world in 2001. After the dust settled, it took the internet market almost 6 years to hit the peak of a sucker's relief rally and mark the end of the dotcom bubble burst. The parabolic unexpected rise that the internet bubble displayed the first time, was something that is still unbelievable to this day. Even though denial and disbelief are a thing of the past, we can still wonder what those so called experts have to say today when asked if our computer pundits lacked all common sense back in the day? Well look at how unimaginably far "electronic wonderland" has come. The internet did indeed replace traditional systems used by banks and governments in the 1990s. Now another global event is about to close a chapter that started as early as 2008 when the global recession took place. We're seeing one after another industrial revolution, each time happening exponentially faster and in a more impactful way than the previous one. The world is being taken by storm yet again, as cryptocurrencies more than outperformed in the last quarter of 2017 and in the early days of 2018. In contrast and just like the dotcom bubble peak back in 2001, both astonishing events preceded a very bloody correction in the 2 years that followed. Both events witnessed by today's freelancer and entrepreneurial millenials, saw Nasdaq find the true bottom around the fourth quarter of 2002 followed by a crystal clear relief sucker's rally that lasted 6 years up until 2007 soon ensued by a higher bottom to spike a much much bigger rally that continues today. Now that the cryptocurrency market is maturing, we can see history in the making as bitcoin did indeed reach a massive technological breakthrough at the end of 2017 followed by a 2 year bloody correction. This time though, moore's law didn't disappoint as the bitcoin market printed a 6 month sucker's relief rally ensued by a higher bottom just a few short months later, signaling an extended bear market and a slower future rally, a more progressive but healthier bullrun between next 2022 and 2023, if not earlier. When comparing 2017 to the doctom bubble, it seems a massive new technology explosion took place 15 times faster than the euphoria experienced in 2001. When looking at bitcoin's algorithmic hashrate, it seems Q2 of 2019 was a sucker's rally, similar to the one experienced in 2015. Contrasting today's massive performance on the stocks that survived 2001's doctom bubble after reaching 98% losses from ATHs followed by a slow rise amidst regulation and adoption, the crypto market is a trillionaire market in the making and the trend should continue as follows: 2013 has been very similar to 2017 in the crypto market. 2014 was very similar to 2018 where a gigantic bloody correction burst the bubble yet again. 2015 saw a sucker's rally signaling a bottom and a future rally potential, just like it happened early January of 2019 2016 Bitcoin had it's second halving, taking it from $185 early January 2015 bottom to $780 June 2016. As miner difficulty increases and bitcoin becomes more scarce, covid-19 impacts every small business including those in the crypto industry causing a massive miner capitulation. Moreover, the block reward will be reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC . With a pool of 15,700 miners left from hundreds of thousands will put the price of bitcoin anywhere from 16k to 53k around the date of the next bitcoin halving till mid 2023. ( BTC Price: $7000 x 6.25 = $43.750). Institutional Trading is Heating Up There is currently only a bit more than $2B in crypto. There was a large study done by JPMorgan, which found out that every $1B that goes into crypto increases the market cap by $50B. So, this means that the actual FIAT money that went into crypto over the last few years is only 2% of what the total amount of cryptos are worth and that there is only $2.2B in crypto total right now, because $2.2B * 50 =$110B, that’s what all crypto is currently worth. At the height of the last bull run, there were around $20B in crypto. Say Bitcoin reaches a $30,000 price and a $240B market cap, we would probably be at a total $1T market cap. There is only $20B entering crypto needed this year, since every $1B that enters crypto, increases the market cap by $50B. BAKKT, Fidelity and ETFs could easily add $10B to this, which would make the crypto market increase by 5x alone. Add small investors, Bitcoin whales and we are at $20B and a $1T total market cap again like in 2017, where we topped out at $800B total crypto market cap. As 2020 arrived with a big bang, we see a strong indicator of what's to come in this exciting brave new orwellian and huxle'y's world, there's a big green light that the cryptocurrency and blockchain market is going to shock the world 10 times faster than the internet 2.0 market has to date! Nevertheless and regardless of the current Pandemic, bitcoin is still following a perfect trace of regressive models run by bots on the biggest crypto exchanges. 16k to 17k is the top for now I'm afraid.
BNC:BLX
by axelrodd
14
Briz Trololo Lines Logarithmic Regression - Bitcoin Halvings Using logarithmic (non-linear) regression curve Trololo Lines to forecast the BTC (BLX 1D) price range, and it's trend within the range - based on previous trends influenced by the halving every four years. Not as exciting as Stock-to-Flow models, but pretty close up until 2023 when Stock-to-Flow launches from 100k in 2023 towards 1 million in 2025 (not shown) - Trololo Lines say otherwise. If BTC price bust 100K by 2021 and stay above it, then I may negate the Trololo Lines - but until then, this chart will be my guide (NFA).
BNC:BLX
by MattBriz
11
BITCOIN - Market Cycle - Part 11Hello Everyone, Currently, BTC is hanging just above the $7,100 marker as the Americans markets get advanced. Trading volume has been steadily decreasing across major trading pairs, including BTC/USD and ETH/BTC, signaling incoming decision time. After BTC makes a significant movement (regardless of whether the move was up/down), it typically needs to hold momentum. Without doing so, history has shown us is that *down* is the way we go. At current, BTC and the rest of the crypto market are fighting against a souring Chinese narrative being spun and promulgated by media outlets worldwide. Nevermind that China is bullish on blockchain, what the market is latching onto ever more tightly is the message that the world's most populous country is anti-crypto. That wouldn't matter much if the rest of the world were up to the task of carrying the market, but so far, no one has stepped up to the plate. So, what happens next? $3 Billion Exit Scam Suppressing the Market? Until CoinTelegraph broke the news about PlusToken, a $3 billion exit scam that mostly took place in Asia, few Westerners knew of the story. To make a long story short, PlusToken, a purported crypto investment platform and wallet, scammed about $3 billion worth of BTC, ETH, and EOS from predominantly Chinese and South Korean investors. Few inroads have been made regarding the whereabouts of PlusToken's founders after they disappeared in June of this year. A handful of blockchain analysis firms of vaguely concluded that vast sums of crypto from wallets associated with PlusToken may be suppressing market prices with shuffled digital assets. Crypto Twitter Remains Largely Bullish, but Some Disagree, believes that the market is due for at least another leg down. The case for a drop to the low $6,000s before finding a bottom sometime in January 2020. A large drop to the $6K region will likely be preceded by a smaller step down to $7K flat, which is ominously looming just below the market's current standing. Others, including famed trader Peter Brandt, see strength in BTC's current position, with Bloomberg's crypto outfit even speculating that short term prices may head above $8K. As always, time will tell. GOOD LUCK! We go together Together we are stronger Share and like I am not Bearish long term. I am a Bull of Bulls. Thanks God bless you! Nothing is hard as long as the determination is there. =============================================================================== BlackMEX - TELEGRAM We are a BITMEX specialized channel. Our philosophy focuses on capital preservation and good risk/return operations. We'll share our analysis, calls, and share studies that can help you be a better trader. Enjoy! Telegram > t.me =============================================================================== Twitter > twitter.com =============================================================================== Bitcoin stock to flow =============================================================================== CAUTION! DISCLAIMER Trading is risky. Here s a small explanation about why Im giving insight into my trades. Crypto is all about trust and transparency and that is what ID like to bring. Dont expect me to tell you how much crypto I actually own because thats none of your business. But I Will tell you how big my position will be in regard to my trading portfolio. Secondly and actually the main reason im doiing this, is to proof to all the HALTERS out there that you can earn money with trading crypto. Most people are skeptical about trading because they heard horror stories about people who lost all their money. Follow my journey and let me proof therm wrong. At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control. Booking some losses during trading is perfectly normal, so im not afraid to show those losses. Most traders dont give any insight in what they because they perfectly know they suck and dont have a clue what they are doing in regard to risk management. Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing. Just like every trader, Ive seen ups and downs in my journey. I started trading stocks. And you can guess what that meant for my portfolio. Yes thats right, it was almost completely wiped out. But I pressed on, learned a lot about technical analysis and here we are. I have experience in trading stocks, options, and commodities . So you can assume that I know how to deal with risks. =============================================================================== $BTC $BCH $BNB $XLM $EOS $ETH $ADA $LTC $TRX $XRP $IOTA $LINK $XTZ $BTT $XMR $NEO $BTT $MATIC $XMR $MRK $XEM $ONT $DASH $BAT $ZRX $LSK $NANO $REP #altcoins #bitcointrading #cryptocurrency #cryptotrading #CRYPTO #BITCOIN #BTCUSD #BTC #BuyTheFear #BuyTheDip @btc @RedditBTC
Long
by ferGOD