Stockanalysis
PFE - Buy The Dip or Follow The Trend?When I began research for this post I expected to be giving the bull case for Pfizer. It's the type of stock I like - a household name oozing with quality and prestige, a strong moat, beaten up with strongly bearish sentiment with multiple factors pointing towards recovery, with short term technical support and long term positive fundamental outlook.
I like to play the contrarian in the stock market and it often pays well. So what about Pfizer?
Well, technically it's RSI oversold (or was on Thursday, before a small bump Friday) on virtually every timeframe from the 1 hour right through to the Weekly.
Looking at Measured Moves, something I do regularly, it's down 19 points from it's swing high on Dec 14th 2022, exactly the same as big upswing from Feb 25th to Aug 18th 2021, and just short of the Oct 13th to Dec 20th 2021 swing of 21 points.
Note that these 3 swings mentioned are the largest swings in Pfizer history, due to the growth and subsequent crash caused by COVID and the following recovery.
We also have the potential for an area of support here, with the area around 36 having seen both support and resistance on a regular basis since 2016, and if we zoom out a year or 2 and look at Volume Profile, depending on where your set your Visible Range you're going to see the point of control landing between 34.5 - 36. Either the current price or just below.
So what's the problem?
There are a few.
"Patent Cliffs" are always an issue for pharmaceutical companies, where after 20 years their patents expire and they have to face competition from generic brands entering the space.
Five of Pfizer’s products face patent expiration in the next six years — Eliquis, an anticoagulant medication, Ibrance to treat breast cancer, Xeljanz for arthritis, Xtandi for prostate cancer, and Vyndaqel for transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy. Excluding Pfizer's COVID sales, these 5 products respresent 40% of the company's sales.
Just this week, William Pao, Pfizer’s chief development officer raised concerns about antitrust regulators cracking down on Mergers and Acquisitions, notably with the blockage of Amgen's $28billion takeover of Horizon.
This raises questions about Pfizer's proposed $43billion purchase of Seagen, and whether they too will come under regulator scrutiny.
Financially, Pfizer's revenue is expected to meaningfully decline in 2023, mainly due to a drop in COVID-19 related sales. Analysts estimate the revenue to be around $68.1B, a 32% YoY decrease.
Pfizer's adjusted EPS for FY23 is expected to be $3.37, down 49% YoY, according to Wall Street estimates.
This is a company that since 2000 has traded as low as 12 in 2008, to as high as 61 at the peak of the COVID drug mania. While technically we do look likely to see a relief rally in the near term, this isn't a company I want to be exposed to. There is too much uncertainty, and while it may look cheap on the scale of the last few years, we must bear in mind that those years were drastically inflated due to COVID drugs that are no longer relevent to it's financials. Pfizer is coming back down to earth with a thud, and I think the company belongs in the 27-36 price range until we see more clarity on it's Seagen purchase and how much it's revenues are pilfered by competing generics.
No play for me right now on Pfizer. This is the reality of stock analysis - you go down the rabbit hole, and ultimately most stocks are neither a buy or a sell. Just a "wait and see".
Paypal - too cheap? PayPal's stock looks undervalued, trading at 6-year lows and a forward P/E ratio of 12.3, despite a strong Q1 performance with respectable transaction revenues, total payment volume, and growth in value-added services.
Operating expenses are well-managed, contributing to substantial growth in operating income and earnings per share, while consensus estimates suggest mid-to-high teens EPS compound annual growth rate.
Market concerns, such as PayPal's Q2 revenue guidance and increased competition, are offset by the Moderate Buy consensus rating, suggesting a 60.7% upside potential.
The involvement of activist investor Elliott Management and the potential sale of the cross-border payment unit, Xoom, signal strategic changes that could enhance PayPal's performance.
PayPal still rides the wave of the growth in e-commerce, with 12% payment volume increase in Q1 2023, and a rise in peer-to-peer transfers, demonstrating resilience in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
The fundamentals of this company have become detached from the share price, making this a long term buy and hold with hugely asymmetrical risk/return profile.
Shorter term, the move back to the highly developed Point of Control would represent over 20% growth, which I see as a high probability outcome within weeks.
AMZNHello ladies and gentleman
chart of amazon stock
Like we as see
Break key level with two candles
We have close candle above key level
And If we see first candle on the support
We can call it bullish engulfing
So now we can analyse what we can expect from
The price action
High probability to keep rise to next resistance
In next mounth
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Thank you
MRNA Short with resistance at 145.50I plan a short trade ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) at 144.41. The entry is just before the resistance zone at ~145.50 which is also confirmed by the Fibonacci 0.5 level. At 146.69 is the stop loss placed so that there is enough space to breathe. The take profit is very conservatively placed at a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.
S&P500 possible short for 4010#S&P500 strong resistance area 4200. 1st May daily key reversal bar made a new high closed on the low indication for weakness ahead. 4155 ideal selling level. target 4010. stop loss above 4200.
$ACN Long with an H4 support level NYSE:ACN Long
NYSE:ACN is in a clear downtrend since the high in December 2021. We have a level of support at ~ 254.00 which often got confirmed. The plan should be to trade the support level with a limit order. The take profit isn't that far away because of the fact we are in a downtrend.
Limit Order: 257,28
Stop Loss: 252,20
Take Profit: 265,04
American Express ($APX): Elliott Waves Analysis and Sell SetupThe American Express ($AXP) Main Trend is absolutely bullish, therefore we currently consider all descents as simple corrective structures of the trend in play. But why am I saying that? Because when you decide to take a position not following the trend, the risk is high, so logic tells us to use a smaller size, at least initially (...there's always time to increase it!). Having said that, the strategy I want to share with you is very simple: "Try to take a short position on breakout" , with stop loss above the previous swing (don't look at the levels on the chart, they are only indicative at the moment). Of course, a second option (yellow arrow) is also possible, but to do this you would need to be a little more expert. The potential target areas are the first around 119.50 and the second around 106.50 (my favorite).
Looking at the chart above (daily time frame) we can see how the potential short trade also has a good Risk/Reward ratio, and this makes this trade interesting.
I also take the opportunity to thank every Trader who supported me in the last setups on Stocks Market:
$AMAZON BULLISH SETUP
(Click and Play on Chart below)
$TESLA BEARISH SETUP
(Click and Play on Chart below)
Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖
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Never Say Die Stock - "Data Patterns"Data Patterns is a vertically integrated defense and aerospace electronics solutions
provider catering to the indigenously developed defense products industry. The
company has proven in-house design & development capabilities and experience of
more than three decades in the defense and aerospace electronics space. They have clients like ISRO, DRDO & HAL etc. Reserves to Borrowing ratio is also attractive.
Source - Screener.in.
If it crosses 1440 level, it may give us a new high. This is a study purpose chart & NOT a By call or recommendation!
Godrej consumer consolidation in intradayMarket sentiment are very nagetive stock traded in a range for the day if breakdown below 918 than targets of 902 can be seen and if stock breakout above 927 a quick target of 935 can be achieved but markets are very nagetive therefore short target should be made
ALCOA ($AA) Elliott Waves Technical AnalysisFrom a technical point of view, Alcoa still has an interesting technical structure in play in the medium term. As we can see on weekly chart, the pullback triggered from the last Top reached an important support area around $33 and from here, the market has developed a nice reaction, at the same time however, we need to destroy the important resistance area around $59/$64 to confirm wave 3. If this happens, $AA should be able to trigger a new Top in the medium term. Of course, this setup is not as simple as the last one we shared and published a few years ago (see chart below), but at the same time it could be an interesting trading opportunity, especially if we are able to follow it on small time frame ( daily or intraday chart). Technically speaking, we may have much more information after the next opening bell...
OUR LAST SETUP ABOUT ALCOA
(Click & Play, play, play and play on chart below)
Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖
Cheers!
N.B.: Updates will follow below
Target price for DABUR India Limitd | Daily | Long analysisHello, today we will be looking at NSE:DABUR
1. This stock has been mostly trending upwards in the long-term.
2. You can see the support level by looking at the daily candles , which the stock has touched every time and bounced back up.
3. However, this time the support level may be broken temporarily, with the stock going down before rising again.
4. Keep in mind the risks involved and trade carefully.
Thanks & regards,
Alpha Trading Station
Disclaimer: This view is for educational purpose only & any stock mentioned here should not be taken as a trading/investing advice. We may or may not have position in the stocks mentioned here. Please consult your financial advisor before investing. Because Price is the "King of Market"