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S&P500 History may not repeat itself, but it does often rhyme.In the infamous words of Mark Twain, we are analyzing today the S&P500 index (SPX) on the long-term 1W time-frame. This is a cyclical perspective obviously, attempting to find similarities between past and present price action, in anticipation of projecting the trend in the near future. As you can see, the index is replicating quite closely the 1W price action from June 2015 to (so far) March 2017. The 1W RSI Bullish Divergence led to a Bear Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), then Rally 1 and first consolidation on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) before the Bull Flag (dotted Channel Down) that led to Rally 2. Based on the overbought 1W RSI, it appears that the index may entering a short-term pull-back period. If it continues to follow that pattern this closely, don't expect that pull-back to be considerably greater than -3.15%. Technically if the 1W RSI breaks below its MA (yellow trend-line), it will be time to start buying again for Rally 3. By early 2025, it should be closer to the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, which gives us a rough target for our buying at 6500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
1
FTSE making a sustainable rally after bullish break-out.This is an update to our analysis 3 months ago (December 18 2023, see chart below) where we called for a Resistance bullish break-out and buy on the next 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) contact: Even though the pull-back dipped some more, the index still followed our projection on a rough scale. The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up but due to some relative readjustments because of that longer dip, we have to revise our target a little lower to 8150. That represents a +10.40% rise from the dip's lower point but still a 1.382 Fibonacci test (8350) is possible but in our updated view it will take longer to achieve. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:UK100Long
by TradingShot
S&P500 Testing the 4H MA50. Rejection or bullish breakout again?The S&P500 (SPX) broke on Friday below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which isn't yet a bearish confirmation as it has done so numerous time within December's Channel Up pattern. What would be a sell signal though, is getting rejected and fail to close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50 again. We will then look for the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and target Support 1 at 5050, where the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level along with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) will provide the first Zone of Support for the short-term. If however the index does close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50, then the Channel Up pattern should continue and in that case we will buy and target 5185 (Resistance). Note though that the 4H RSI is trading within a Channel Down since the February 23 High, almost 1 month, which is a major Bearish Divergence against the price's Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
NASDAQ Correction not over yet but won't be a big one either.Nasdaq (NDX) started a correction last week (see our March 12 idea below) which was after a rejection at the top of the multi-month Channel Up that transitioned into a Head and Shoulders (H&S) on the lower time-frames (4H) and broke below February's Channel: Despite the early bounce today, we don't expect this correction to be over, but won't be a lengthy one either. On the 1D time-frame we set a 17130 Target and that seems to be almost in perfect sync with what the 1W time-frame shows us, which is at most a test of the 17,000 - 16,850 range. What's the importance of this? Well that is the horizontal level of the previous November 2021 All Time High (ATH), i.e. a Resistance, that may now turn into a Support. As this 1W analysis shows us, since NDX started trading inside a log Channel Up since 2010 (that later broke upwards thus is best viewed here by the Fibonacci Channel levels), the prior Resistance has been tested and held 9 times (with the exceptions being the March 2020 COVID flash crash and of course more recently the 2022 inflation Bear Cycle). The key on those sequences has been the formation of Lower Highs on the 1W RSI when done above the overbought barrier (70.00). The 2nd Lower High has basically been the technical sell signal that called for the formation of the medium-term Top. At the same time though keep in mind that on all those medium-term corrections, the index touched the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), with the only exception being the September 2020 pull-back. The 1W MA50 is currently at 15500 (but rising aggressively), considerably lower than the 17,000 - 16,850 Support Zone. The difference maker in any case would be the Fed's outlook towards potential rate cuts this year. The slightest mention of potential cuts either this Wednesday or later, would be enough not to let the index free fall to the 1W MA50. In any case, this chart shows long-term investors when to consider to take some profits (RSI Lower Highs) and then when to have the patience to wait a few weeks - 2 months before entering again. On the long-term we expect a minimum repeat of the September 2020 - November 2021 rally towards the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result our long-term target on Nasdaq is 27000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NDX
by TradingShot
3
DOW JONES Head and Shoulders formed. Potential visit of Feb lowsDow Jones (DJI) had formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the 4H time-frame and ahead of the first 4H Death Cross in 7 months (since August 21 2023), the probability of a short-term correction seems stronger than ever. Technically H&S patterns target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension but we will settle for a slightly higher target on Support 1 at 38050. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by TradingShot
US30: Thoughts and Analysis post-CPIToday's focus: US30 Pattern – Consolidation range Support – 38,550 Resistance – 39,165 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the US30 daily. Yesterday's CPI didn't cause any serious moves but did show that inflation remains stubborn. Today, we have run over what we are watching on the US30 and the current main levels that are forming a price pattern. Will we see a new test and break of resistance, or could we be in for further consolidation? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by Eightcap
S&P500 Overbought. Relief correction very probable.The S&P500 index (SPX) is trading at the top of the 17-month Channel Up with the 1W RSI overbought and at its highest (78.00) in more than 4 years (since January 2020). Once it breaks below its MA level (yellow trend-line), it will be a sell confirmation, which is the signal that flashed on February 20 2023 and July 31 2023. The minimum decline within this Channel Up pattern has been -5.84%, so our sell target is 4900. Then we will start buying again and if it drops more (i.e. below Support 1), we will reserve our last buy entry on Support 2 at 4665, which will still be marginally above the maximum decline of -10.96% and still within the Channel Up. After the correction, at any point the 1W RSI breaks above its MA again, it will be a bullish break-out signal. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
1
NASDAQ Top of the 1year Channel Up. Needs to correct.Nasdaq (NDX) is almost at the top of the long-term Channel Up that started back in January 2023 and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting the current Bullish Leg since November 03 2023. That is a very aggressive wave that is most likely coming to an and as technically it resembles the previous Bullish Leg that peaked on July 18 2023 on a similar (as you can see) structure, which then corrected initially by -8.50% to the 0.3 Fibonacci retracement level just above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). As a result, we are turning bearish and our target is 17130, which is Support 1 and where most likely contact can be made with the 1D MA100 on a marginally less fall than -8.50%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by TradingShot
3
DAX Correction very likely. Target 17100.DAX (DE40) is extending a very strong Bullish Leg, which started after the previous short-term correction ended on January 17 2024 with a contact on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is part of an overall Bullish Wave that emerged on the latest Higher Low (October 27 2023) of the 1.5 year Channel Up. However as the 1D MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross (which has been a sell signal within this pattern) while the price is already on the -0.382 Fibonacci extension level (which is where it was rejected on the previous Bullish Leg on March 07 2023), we are turning bearish on DAX on the medium-term, targeting the previous Resistance at 17100. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by TradingShot
DOW JONES Short-term correction has began.Dow Jones (DJI) has had yesterday the strongest red 1D candle since February 13 and 2nd strongest since the October 27 2023 bottom. Just as recently as last week (February 26, see chart below) we called for a 'very clear bearish signal' as not only was the price near the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up but also the 1W MACD was on a Declining Histogram similar to the August 2023, December 2022 and August 2022 tops: To get a better idea of the shorter term implications of that signal, we view Dow today from the 1D time-frame, where the 1D RSI has been on a Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs against the index' Higher Highs) December 19 2023. Again within the structure of the Channel Up, the same RSI pattern was formed during the August 01 2023 and December 2022 Higher Highs. Both declined by virtually the same percentage (-9.25%). Such a decline would push the price as low as 35650, which is where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) currently is. Instead we would like, as mentioned, to keep a shorter term perspective here and time a 3-4 week target. Once the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, it will be the most optimal sell confirmation, with a conservative short-term Target being Support 2 at 37120. Notice that this would be near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the Channel and if it takes place in early April, it will be as close to the 1D MA200 as possible. In any case, the 1D RSI touching the 30.00 oversold barrier, is technically always a solid level to start buying again for the long-term. Note also how the current top is virtually the same rally % (+21.00%) as December 13 2022. This shows that we shouldn't neglect the symmetry of waves within this long-term Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by TradingShot
DAX Time to respect the 17-year Channel and correct.Exactly 3 months ago (December 06 2023, see chart below), we set a 17800 Target on DAX (DE40) and the index hit that level yesterday: At the time DAX was the first major stock index to hit new All Time Highs (ATH) and as we mentioned it "sent a message to indices globally". And followed they did, as all markets followed this lead and rose aggressively. This time however, DAX is sending a bearish signal as by hitting 17800 it reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 17-year Channel Up that started on the July 2007 High, right at the peak of the U.S. Housing Crisis. At the same time it almost hit the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, which is a key level as every time the index (nearly) hit it (May 2014, January 2018, February 2020), it corrected by at least -15%. As a result we think a test of January's Low at 16350 would be a modest target, even though it might seem unrealistic under the current market sentiment. A -15% decline would even test the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since November 2022 and the post Inflation Crisis recovery. Note that we currently only starting the 3rd Mega Cycle. Both previous 2 peaked their Higher Highs on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (measuring from Sine Wave Top to Sine Wave Top). So on a multi-year basis, as investors we look to take advantage of these corrections and buy for an ultimate 2028 Target at 20500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
XETR:DAXShort
by TradingShot
S&P500 Is it timed for a correction until the Fed Decision?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and since last Friday, the price has been griding on its top (Higher Highs trend-line). The longer it fails to convincingly break and close a full week above it, the more likely it is to deliver a technical pull-back. On that technical setting, the 1D RSI has been on a lengthy Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs) since December 19 2023, which is similar to the one that led to the July 27 2023 Channel Up Higher High and the subsequent -10.96% correction. In fact the 1D RSI has printed a peak pattern (red circle) similar to all previous 3 Higher Highs that gave corrections ranging from -9.17% to -10.96%. July 27 2023 initially delivered a -5.84% pull-back before extending to -10.96%. From a fundamental perspective though, if the market indeed gets rejected here and starts pulling back, it would seem ideally timed for a bottom near the next Fed Rate Decision meeting on March 20 2024, where the policymakers may give clearer hints for a June cut. The correction's targets can only be determined technically though, so a potential -5.84% pull-back takes us marginally below Support 1 at 4845, right on the 0.382 Fibonacci Channel retracement level. If the market overreacts to the Fed, then a potential extension gives a rough 2nd Target at 4755, within Fib 0.5 and 0.618, which will approach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the current phase of the Bull Cycle we are at though, it is very doubtful to see in the near future stronger corrections. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
2
NASDAQ: Channel Up peaked. Correction needed.Nasdaq is forming a new HH at the top of the 1 year Channel Up with the 1W timeframe overbought technically (RSI = 70.596, MACD = 766.660, ADX = 46.154) and the RSI in particular under LH and inside the red Resistance Zone. This is a bearish signal, validation would come upon a 1D MA50 bearish crossing. Our target is the 1D MA100 (TP = 16,850). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by InvestingScope
2
NASDAQ Is this a Double Top? Potential decline to 16900.Nasdaq (NDX) tested and was rejected last Friday on the 18100 Resistance, which was formed by the February 12 High. This is a technical Double Top formation and as long as it holds, there is high probability for the index to start the new Bearish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up pattern. In fact the recent February 12 High is technically as close of a Higher High for this Channel Up as possible and was formed while the 1D RSI was on Lower Highs since December 19 2023 (Bearish Divergence), similar to the July 18 2023 High. The similarities of the Bullish Leg that started on the October 26 2023 bottom with the previous that formed the July 18 2023 High, are in fact very strong. As a result, it is very probable to see a symmetrical -8.50% decline towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the Support 2 level but we keep a shorter-term perspective due to the overall bullish dynamics this year and our short is 'only' targeting the 0.3 Fibonacci retracement level (as with the August 18 2023 Low) at 16900. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 This Bull Cycle is far from over.On this analysis we view the S&P500 (SPX) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame in order to answer the question of why it hasn't pulled-back since the October 2023 Low. The answer can be given by observing the index from a cyclical point of view. First, with the exception of the March 2020 COVID flash crash and more recently October 2022, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), was intact since October 2011. Even during those two tests, it never closed a monthly (1M) candle below it. This makes it the current long-term Support and every pull-back towards it is a buy opportunity on the lowest possible risk. The catalyst on this long-term analysis is the Channel Down that started on the 1M RSI since the September 2015 Low. Every decline near its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) is a buy opportunity, while near its top (Lower Highs trend-line) is a sell. Right now the Cycle (5th since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis) is at the point after its 1st mid-cycle correction (blue circle) where the 1M RSI typically bounces off its MA (yellow) trend-line. This hasn't just happened within the RSI's Channel Down but is also a characteristic of all Cycles since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis. At the same time, the 1M MACD rises on a Bullish Cross. As a result, even though a short-term pull-back can be technically justified, the current Bull Cycle is far from over as the 1M RSI hasn't approached the Channel's top. Technically that should be towards the fall of 2024 followed by a volatile 2025. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
4
DOW JONES Very clear bearish signal.Dow Jones (DJI) is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the the 1.5 year Channel Up, while flashing a very unique medium-term sell signal. That is the 1W MACD Histogram, which is declining, a Bearish Divergence that during that period of time, has initiated 3 declines of more than -9% each. Given the fact that the current Bullish Leg of the Channel Up has extended to almost 21.9%, which is almost as high as the October - December 2022 sequence, we are expecting a medium-term correction back to at least the middle of the Channel Up. Target is 37120 (Support 1) and if a 1W candle closes below the middle, we expect a bottom around the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) at 36000 (Support 2). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 Is a -3% pull-back probable here?The S&P500 index (SPX) is having another bullish week with the current green 1W candle being the strongest since the first week of the year. Nonetheless with the 1W RSI overbought at 75.00 and the price very close to the Higher Highs trend-line that started on the late November 2022 High, a short-term pull-back seems probable at the moment. The long-term price action since 2016 shows that every time this 1W RSI overbought pattern emerges, and the index is trading near (or at) the Higher Highs trend-line, it makes a correction between -3.10% and -4.50%. From the current levels, the minimum of -3.10% pull-back would deliver prices around 4950 while a -4.50% one, prices around 4865. Long-term traders can look to continue buying such dips as long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXShort
by TradingShot
2
DAX Trading plan based on the 1D MA50DAX (DE40) is on a short-term Channel Up, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has held twice in the past month (January 17 and February 13). As long as it holds, we will most likely see a break of the long-term Channel Up, which in time could complete a +20.90% rise as the July 31 2023 High. In that case, we will target 17400 on the short-term. If however the 1D MA50 breaks, we will open a sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 16200. Based on the 1D RSI, which is showing a consolidation following a Channel Down, there are more probabilities of replicating the April - May 2023 bullish sequence. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Short-term pull-back is very likely now.The S&P500 has hit (even surpassed on the liner scale) the top of the 16-month Channel Up pattern with the 1D RSI on a Bearish Divergence (price on Higher Highs while the RSI on Lower Highs). If the price closes a 1D candle below the 4H MA100 (red trend-line), which is dangerously close to, it will be the first such bearish signal since August 02 2023 and the previous Higher High of the Channel Up. Of course the final confirmation comes if the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks but that is currently on Support 1 and our first Target at 4845. So if the 1D MA50 breaks, we will take a new short and extend selling with a 4755 Target, which represents a -5.84% decline from the current top, similar to the August 18 2023 pull-back. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
1
NASDAQ Can this selling be sustainable?Last week (February 08, see chart below), we gave a sell signal on Nasdaq (NDX) as the the price wasn't just at the top of the short-term (dashed) Channel Up, but was also approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Up: As the index suffered strong intra-day selling yesterday, following the higher than expected U.S. CPI report (investors initially view this as an excuse for the Fed not to cut rates quickly), it is a good time to update our outlook. In this effort, we will look at it through the shorter term 4H time-frame this time. As you can see, the price breached yesterday not only the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but also the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which was the first time (for the latter) since January 17, so almost 1 month. This is the first significant bearish signal for the medium-term but the confirmation will come only if a 1D candle closes below it. In that case, we expect the decline to reach first the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1D MA50 (red trend-line) Support cluster and then after a rebound gets confirmation with a rejection on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), target 16550, which is Support 2 and a potential 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line) contact. In that scenario, look also for the 1D RSI breaking below its Support Zone. On the other hand, since the index is rebounding today and is already on the 4H MA50, we will wait for the daily candle closing. If it is above it (as in the cases of the February 01 and January 09 break-outs), it will most likely suggest that the bullish trend is intact. In that case, we will buy the break-out and target 18400, just below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, which was the Target of both previous Higher Highs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100
by TradingShot
1
US30: Thoughts and Analysis Post-CPIToday's focus: US30 Pattern – Diagonal Support – 38,135, 37,135 Resistance – 38,810 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the US30 on the daily chart. What a solid run we have seen till yesterday's CPI data. After US CPI came in hotter than expected, this shocked the market and led to heavy selling on stock indexes and risk currencies with a flight to safety (USD). We have broken down price action, price patterns and levels we are watching. Is this nothing more than a buying opportunity, or is this a potential momentum change? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:US30
by Eightcap
5
S&P500 +10year cheatsheet tells you what to do next!On this analysis we look into the S&P500 index (SPX) from a very long-term angle, the 1W time-frame going back more than 13 years, since November 2010. That was when the first Megaphone pattern emerged since the 2009 market bottom of the U.S. Housing (sub-prime) crisis that after testing the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) it found Support and transitioned into a Channel Up. This is a similar pattern that we are at since the previous 2021 market All Time High (ATH) that led to the 2022 Inflation Bear Cycle. In fact since 2009 there have been (including 2022) 4 such cyclical patterns in total and another common characteristic has been that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the Support throughout the uptrend. In our recent pattern, that was tested in October 2023, held, and gave rise to the enormous November - February rally. That turned the 1W RSI overbought above 70.00 for the first time since July 24 2023, which caused the 3-month pull-back. In fact, when the 1W RSI broke that high into overbought territory during the previous 3 Cycles, SPX at best consolidated if not pull-back for 4-6 weeks. In any case, this +10 year 'Cheatsheet' is telling you that as long as the 1W MA50 holds (which is considerably lower), the next 4 weeks at least are a buy opportunity, at least once the index hits the 1D MA50 again. And of course the upside, in a year of expected rate cuts and U.S. Presidential elections, is significant not just purely from a technical point of view. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
3
DOW JONES Channel Up with the 4H as the key level.Dow Jones (DJI) is trading within a Channel Up pattern on the 4H time-frame with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting since the January 19 break-out, being right on its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). As long as the price action is closing candles above it, we remain bullish, targeting a Higher High at 39100. If it closes a 4H candle below the 4H MA50, we will take the loss and sell instead, targeting the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) at 37800. Note that the last medium-term Support has been the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on January 18 and being overbought for too long on the 1D time-frame while the 4H RSI is on a Bearish Divergence throughout the index' whole Channel Up, a short-term correction to the 1D MA50, would technically be quite likely here. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
1