DAX short-term profit-taking leading to 16400Last week DAX gave the most optimal buy entry on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up as I presented on my most recent analysis:
The price hit 15840 on a strong rebound, the strongest 2 days of the year. Yesterday the price started to pull-back but shouldn't be alarming as the very same -1.30% correction took place on October 18, during the last rally wave and turned out to be just profit taking. The index traded sideways for a week and later went on a 1 month rally extension towards the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
That extension is currently a little over 16600 and if it takes place, it would mean the break to the upside of the August Channel Up. For the time being, it is more sensible to initially target 16400 and then re-evaluate.
Notice how the 1D MACD is currently forming a Bullish Cross, which DAX typically forms at the start of its rallies.
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Stockindex
NASDAQ may break even higher than its Channel UpAs mentioned on my previous analysis, the Lower High divergence on the 1D RSI was the signal that Nasdaq would pull-back. The small technical correction eventually ended at around -7% from the top, exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As I've mentioned before, this is generally considered a solid first buy entry.
The current chart shows that after a similar correction (8 to 8.50% roughly), NDX always starts a 2 month rise towards the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. The point of bullish break-out is typically when the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, which is currently close to happening. Previously that has coincided with the break above the internal Lower Highs trend-line.
The 1.786 Fib extension is currently a little over 17700. If that takes place within the next 2 months, we may see the dominant 9-month Channel Up break upwards and transcend into the Diverging Channel Up displayed in orange. Regardless of that, our next two long-term targets are 17000 and 17600.
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DOW JONES may give more buy opportunities on this patternThis is an update to my most recent Dow Jones idea that gave the buy signal on the bottom of the Channel Up a week ago:
The index has been rallying aggressively since then and now faces the first important Resistance (black dashed line). This may be an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern similar to the June one. That has given two buy opportunities on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line)/ 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level before the final rally of that phase towards the 0.236 Fibonacci extension.
If you didn't catch the bottom buy already, be on the look out for those potential buy opportunities.
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S&P500 Be ready to buy the pull-back if needed.This is a short-term update on the 4H time-frame which I rarely use for S&P500 on my November 30 idea:
As you see on that recent post, the 1D MA50 worked well once more in catching the correction within the multi-month Channel Up and the index has been rebounding strongly this week. This long-term Channel has worked very well at identifying tops as well:
Anyway back to the current situation/ chart and the 4H time-frame. The index has entered the High Volatility Cluster of November, which was basically a prolonged Resistance Zone. As long as the 4745 Resistance doesn't breaks, there are high probabilities for a pull-back towards the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which as this long-term uptrend unfolds should form a Golden Cross over the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Notice also the MACD which is closer to a Bearish Cross after this very strong rally. If you missed the bottom buy around the 1D MA50, this might be the opportunity you're looking for a new entry.
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SPX touching back at short zones.Don't forget to make sure you click on the follow button to see daily professional analysis,
Here we have our US stock SPX chart.
We are still looking short after the current news sentiment and yesterdays plans as we approach previous highs.
Price has rallied and must be followed with a fall. Incorporate DCA Correct risk management where needed.
UK 100 Short planDon't forget to click on the follow button after reading for more daily Professional analysis.
Here we have our UK 100 chart.
On the current rise, we are now looking to short back down to some key support and MA's, with our target identified with the directional arrow.
FTSE intraday shortGood Morning, afternoon and evening traders! Don't forget to click the follow button after reading my post for more expert daily analysis.
Here we have our frequently traded FTSE 100 chart.
We are up on the day from current UK market sentiment attacking some key resistance.
We are looking for an intraday short this morning back down.
UK 100 PlanDon't forget to click the follow button to get detailed daily analysis,
Here we have our UK 100 (FTSE) chart.
This is an asset I trade daily.
With the current news sentiment we have seen a fast and sharp move down followed by a swift rebound. we are at Key MA's and some good support.
We are looking to get long again. TGT area is noted by the Blue arrow on the chart.
FTSE/UK 100 PLANFor more detailed expert daily analysis, don't forget to click the follow button.
Here we have our UK 100 or FTSE 100 chart.
Lots of news on today so we are expecting some larger movement.
As you can see with the eclipse symbol we have seen great price rejection around the 7210-7125 area.
We are now getting nearer to short positions on the day and will re long nearer this area as price falls lower.
Our directional arrows show us the movement of price.
SPX Looking ShortHere is our SPX 500 Chart.
Recovery economically and good sentiment has driven this asset class higher.
We are looking short back at the highs on previously formed resistance and price rejection arrows.
Our target is back down nearer our MA's as located by the directional arrow.
UK 100 Short on the dayFor more expert analysis of multiple assets, make sure you click the follow button!
Here we have our 4H FTSE 100 chart.
Today we are looking short on the previous rally.
We are now meeting our MA's again and looking further down for our target (noted with arrow).
SPX Turning shortFor more expert daily analysis, go ahead and click the follow button!
Here we have our SPX chart.
Price is now starting to rebound off new ATH.
We are now looking short back down to our key MA's and previous support levels.
Price movement is annotated by the directional arrow.
FTSE on the rise.. Short back down to the strong support.From a Pro FTSE Stock Index trader..
Looking for the FTSE to come back to the Support + Mixture of MA's and we will look long again. For now, It is short back down to this area, where we will then flip long.
Lets get it!
LongThe Nasdaq 100 is a beast and will allow you to gain financial freedom if you can trade and keep risk management along the way. Recent strong tech earning are allowing the upside movement of this prolific stock index. The correlation from the SP 500 has not been strong lately as Nasdaq 100 has recently shown that it has had an independent route in short-term trends. The overall trends will be correlated, but this information is essential for day traders. Trend trading is the most profitable way to gain profits using technical analysis.
NASDAQ on 1D Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price is at the bottom of the Channel Up, below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line, which has accurately given a long-term buy signal 3 times since November 2020) and the 1D CCI is on Higher Lows at its bottom.
Target: Short-term 15100 (the 1D MA50), medium-term 15700 (Resistance and All Time High) and long-term 16350 (the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
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DOW JONES near the 1D MA200/ first time since October 2020!Dow Jones is trading within a Channel Up that has recently broken below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). This is the first time in two months that is giving the first strong buy signals:
* The RSI is near the 30.000 level which has marked price bottoms on June 18 2021, October 29 2020 (in the post COVID crash era).
* The price is approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the last contact dating back to October 30 2020 (the line held and issued an aggressive rally post US-elections).
* The pattern resembles the June - October 2020 Channel Up. The price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), 1D MA100 and 1D MA200 in the same order and manner.
Naturally the market is waiting for Fed's confirmation tomorrow before it engages aggressively on high volume but this is the time technically to start considering a buy entry again. Based on the Fibonacci extension model, a target of 35900 seems very plausible.
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NASDAQ Start looking for a buy near the 1D MA100 after the FedTwo weeks ago NDX formed a peak formation at the top of the multi-month Channel Up (Higher Highs) and I posted the following chart calling for a strong correction:
As you see that correction is currently underway and having broken below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is looking for the patterns strongest Support, the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which has been the most optimal buy level since April 2020.
In fact more recently (March and May), the index rebounds shortly after it breaks marginally below the 1D MA100. With the Fed meeting tomorrow being crucial for the market as it either ensures the continuation of very low rate policy (bullish) or signals a start to raising rates (bearish), expect high volatility that may cross the 1D MA100 momentarily on a wick and recover quickly. If the peak I called two weeks ago is the (A) leg, then we are about to complete (B) which on a 1 year basis has been the best buy entry.
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DAX Which Channel will prevail?DAX is ahead of critical crossroads as the long-term Channel Up (blue) that was formed after the November 2020 U.S. elections is on its last leg (d) before the aggressive rally that last time (March-April) led to leg (e).
If this pattern is not repeated, then there is a new Channel Up (orange) that may continue this uptrend but in a more controlled, less aggressive manner. I believe that the signal for this will be a closing below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Which Channel Up do you think will prevail?
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Why the S&P500 Micro Futures is one of the best markets to trade Hey Traders so today I wanted to show you a great market to consider trading the S&P500 Micro Futures. I think it is one of the easiest markets to learn vs the Forex and others. It offers great leverage and really good risk vs reward. Of course futures are different from stocks, crypto and forex. The are considered high risk because of the volatility and leverage. But definitely I think they are a good asset class to consider adding to every traders portfolio with the right risk management. Plus this market is a great way to start capturing all the great gains that the stock market has had in the last 10 years. As long as the bull market continues I think this market will remain strong.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
Nasdaq Wave 5NAS100 is at final wave 5. My target for wave 5 is 15400-15500. Might consolidate at the top for 3-4 months before dropping 50%. That will probably happen next year. But for now long.
S&P 500 Hits New All TIme High After Bouncing at Support!Hi guys, this is OG back with another market update. If you find value in my work, please do like, share, and comment. And also feel free to share your ideas and technical analysis in the comments below.
In my last post on the S&P 500 (in related ideas below), I noted that the S&P500 index was testing trendline support after failing to make a new All Time High and how this fall coincided with Bitcoin's fall in price over the past week. In that post, the S&P500 was exactly at trendline support, and I mentioned that the next daily close would be very important in determining the next move in the stock markets, and therefore other assets such as Bitcoin, namely that if we closed below the trendline it would be bearish and if we had a bullish reversal pattern, it would be bullish.
The following daily close was a bullish engulfing candle, which showed that the trendline still held as support. Indeed, after the bullish engulfing candle, the S&P500 index had a slight rally so far and put in a new all time high, and is still putting in new alltimehighs as of time of writing this post. Indeed, Bitcoin has followed this move up in the past couple of days, reaching as high as 35.5K after bottoming at 28.8K.
We are seeing a slight divergence between the S&P500 and Bitcoin at the moment, however, as while the S&P500 is creating new alltimehighs, Bitcoin has been slightly retracing, trading at 32.8K after topping out at 35.5K. Let's monitor to see if the the correlation between the two will again bring the two back together, with either S&P500 dropping or Bitcoin rallying to match S&P500's bullishness, OR if the two will continue to diverge with S&P500 rallying while Bitcoin slides. I will keep monitoring and updating as the market unfolds.
Check out my daily videos for more in-depth technical analysis and trade setups for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins.
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DOW JONES touched the 1D MA50. Time to rebound?Dow Jones is trading within a wide Channel Up on the 1D time-frame since the November U.S. elections break-out. Applying the Fibonacci Channel levels really gives this a better perspective.
Yesterday the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see every contact within the 1D MA50 since January has been a buy opportunity. So far even when the 1D MA50 breaks slightly, the price never goes below the Ichimoku Cloud. Yesterday we had a hit both on the 1D MA50 and the Ichimoku. I believe that should be enough to initiate a rebound within the current phase of the Channel Up.
The question is, will that be like the March 04 rebound which broke above that Channel and took the index to the higher Fibonacci levels? What do you think?
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S&P500 entering a Golden Decade and no one is paying attentionThis is S&P on the log scale of the 1M (monthly) time-frame. Since the Great Depression, the index has entered a Channel Up that never stopped/ broke to the downside to this date. In particular, I have distinguished this pattern into 3 key landmarks:
1) When the price broke below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) but made a bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up (the end of a Bull Cycle).
2) Then it crashed violently in a day or a few days (Black Monday-October 1987 and COVID crash-March 2020) and hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line).
3) The Hyper Cycle Peak just below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level (end of the DotCom Bubble).
As you see the two eras are identical. And what is more interesting is that the 1M MA50 crashes seem to serve as the middle of each Hyper Cycle making the start - middle with the middle - end fairly symmetrical. At least that appears to be the case for 1974 - 1987 (roughly 4750 days) and 1987 - 2000 (roughly 4700 days). So if we are currently in an identical Hyper Cycle with the March 2020 COVID crash serving as its middle, then then next peak near the 1.5 Fibonacci extension should be roughly as long as the time from the bottom of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis in February 2009 until the COVID crash in March 2020, i.e. 4000 days. That puts the target for S&P500 around 12000 by mid 2031! See also how identical the RSI action is between the two eras as well as the bottom levels on both the 1M MA200 crashes and the 1M MA50 crashes.
So if the above data are true and the pattern replicates the former Hyper Cycle, it means that we've just started the 2nd part of it, which is also the most aggressive. This time around the index is closer to the top of the Channel Up than it was after the 1987 crash, which means that if it breaks, there is a chance to approach the 1.5 Fibonacci extension even quicker. Will that mean that we will be looking for the next peak above the 1.5 Fib and closer to the 2.0 Fib? Who knows? But I firmly believe that (especially after the trillion dollar rescue packages and the near zero interest rates globally that seem to be here to stay) we have a new Golden Decade ahead of us for the stock markets and no-one seems to be paying attention as most are focused on overvaluations expecting a new crash.
What do you think? Contrary to popular belief, is this the time to go heavy on stocks for one decade and happily retire in the process? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
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