Dow Jones: Bullish MACD but top may be near.DJI is extending the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 60.150, MACD = 193.000, ADX = 15.316, Highs/Lows = 339.6071) after the MACD turned bullish following the January 31st bottom. However as the overall bullish pattern is the 1W Channel Up that started in July 2019, is near its Higher High trend line again, there is a high chance of a pull back.
Last time the 1D MACD turned bullish above the 0.000 mark, Dow peaked at +6%. We are close to that level (29,850) now, so a pull back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend line) is realistic. If however the index follows the MACD bullish reversal patterns made below the 0.000 mark, then the extension can go as high as +8% (roughly 30,500) before the pull back to the MA50.
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DAX: Attention needed. Bearish fractal to 12,800.The index has made a marginal All Time High today but the 1D RSI remains on a bearish divergence (RSI = 59.286, MACD = 52.400, ADX = 20.325) within the 1W Channel Up. This pattern resembles the May- July 2019 top sequence which ended with a strong decline towards the 1D MA200 (orange line).
If the 1D MA50 (blue line) is crossed again, we are expecting this time contact with the MA200. Our Target Zone is 12,700 - 12,870.
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S&P/TSX Composite Index can test Minor Resistance LevelsWhen we look at Canadian instruments during the Autonomous LSTM Adaptive period:
We see a cheapness in both stock markets and currency.
Even though I have a positive opinion about the target, let's try it out in small quantities and leave more position size in case of a second try on negative scenario.
This analysis can be more risk-free with the following parameters:
Position Size : %1 for Index Futures or Small percentage of Portfolio
Risk/Reward Ratio = 1/1.99
Stop-Loss : 16911.75
Goal : 18032
NOTE:
The unapproved short signal is the leading indicator of volatile movements.
So let's be careful.
Let's leave more room for the second attempt, which, when the circumstances are in our favor, let us gain much more of our loss.
Regards.
DAX: Sell opportunity within the Channel Up.DAX is trading within a 1D Channel Up since early November. At the moment the price is next to the Higher High trend line, which is technically an optimal sell entry assuming the pattern holds. With the RSI also at the top of its 2 month consolidation channel, we treat this as a strong medium term sell opportunity. Our Target Zone is 13,165 - 13,100.
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S&P500: Attention. 4H Death Cross emerging.SPX is currently on the wrong foot again as last week's quick recovery on the impressive Nonfarm Payrolls is proving to be too unstable. The index is well within the multi month 1W Channel Up (RSI = 64.964, MACD = 69.900, Highs/Lows = 55.7180) but as it trades on the Higher High trend line, a medium term pull back for a Higher Low is technically justified.
The first Signal on this could be the emerging Death Cross formation on 4H. When then very same pattern was formed (August 5th and May 13th) during the two previous Higher Highs of the multi month Channel Up, S&P was either on the new Higher Low (bottom) or halfway to it. It is obvious then that traders position themselves before this formation takes place and currently it is emerging.
Each decline was roughly -8%, so we've set a Target Zone of 2,910 - 2,950.
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Dow Jones: Sell opportunity. Potential Double Top.DJI has extended the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 65.157, MACD = 519.030, Highs/Lows = 742.8189) that has previously provided a handful of trading opportunities (see bottom of the analysis).
At the moment a Double Top is being formed on 1D, which since April has been a bearish signal, later initiating a decline towards the Higher Low zone (where the 1D MA200 always supported).
We are expecting a similar behavior especially since the current levels are nearly overbought on 1D (RSI = 69.814). Our Target Zone is 27,000 - 26,800.
See the previous successful signals within this pattern below:
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S&P: Bearish reversal (2,950) with invalidation level.As per our last study, the +100 pip target has been reached:
The index has approached the Higher High zone of the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 64.884, MACD = 62.620, Highs/Lows = 78.1742) and the 1D RSI is close to the 71.30 level which since February 2019 has always caused a pull back.
When on the Higher High trend line of the 1W Channel Up in particular, the 71.00 1D RSI level starts a bearish sequence that drops all the way to the Higher Low trend line, with the 1D MA200 (orange) acting as the Support.
S&P is now on such a spot and if this pattern is repeated then we are looking at a Higher Low contact with the 1D MA200 at least at 2,950.
Attention is needed however. As per our last study (seen on the chart above), it is possible for SPX to start a new 12 month aggressive bullish sequence if 3,150 breaks (similar to what happened in 2016/2017). So be ready to exit this trade in time if you are a long term trader/ investor.
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Nasdaq: Entering new multi-month Bull if the ATH (8,027) breaksDespite Friday's fairly strong pull back, Nasdaq still approached last week the 8,027 All Time High after a very aggressive rebound on the 1D chart (MACD = 50.350, Highs/Lows = 51.7055) since October 2nd near the 1D MA200 (orange line).
Having almost made a Double Bottom then, the annual pattern (2019) resembles that of the 2016/ 2017 period. Not identical 100% but fairly similar on candle action with the variations being due to the volatility caused on geopolitical reasons (China deal etc).
The index is now near the break out phase, which in 2016/ 2017 when the ATH broke paved the way for a very aggressive 12 month Bull Phase until January 2018 on more than +40% gains.
If the current ATH breaks (8,027) we see no reason why this won't initiate a new multi-month Bull Phase as long term investors will accumulate.
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S&P: Targeting 3,100 if the ATH breaks.After hitting our previous Target,
the index is once again approaching the 3,030 1W Resistance and All Time High (ATH). 1D has just turned bullish on its RSI = 56.532 (MACD = 7.990, ADX = 32.823, Highs/Lows = 25.3073) but this is not the clue we are looking at for our next move.
What seems to be more relevant now is how S&P traded on a similar situation in the past. We looked back in 2016/ 2017 when the index last made a rebound on the 1D MA200, within a Channel Up and after a Golden Cross formation. Once the Resistance at the time broke, it strongly moved for a new Higher High within the Channel before aggressively breaking the pattern upwards.
Since we are currently just above the 1D MA50 and just under the 3,030 Resistance, if it breaks, we will target 3,100 - 3,150. A strong earnings season should work as the catalyst the index needs right now.
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CAC 40: Very strong long term upside potential. 6700 on sight.CAC is quite strangely printing on the big 1W/1M time frames a similar trading pattern with the early - mid 90s. The MA50/200 sequence is identical within a Channel Up with two distinct peaks that broke the Channel momentarily before testing again the supporting trend line.
What stands out in particular is the +46.50% rebound from the first Higher Low on both cycles. What follows after is a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which gave rise to the second peak outside the Channel Up.
CAC40 is currently on that Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern attempting to price the Right Shoulder.
With such striking similarities it is only natural to assume that the current cycle will follow to a large extent the 90's cycle. Which means that after the Inverse Head and Shoulders is completed a +49.50% rise may follow (second peak outside the Channel) bringing the index close to 6,700. This is our long term target for CAC and the candle action times this by March 2020. After that the final Higher Low takes place which should pave the way for the new hyper aggressive cyclical bull market similar to the late 90s - 2000.
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Dow Jones: Sell Opportunity on 1D.The index is now testing the 1W Resistance (26,280 - 26,300). 1D has been trading on an Ascending Triangle pattern (RSI = 62.583, MACD = 150.200, Highs/Lows = 229.6786) and upon reaching this 1W Resistance zone on overbought stochastics (STOCH = 98.665, STOCHRSI = 90.823, Williams = -0.392) a sell window opportunity emerges. The SL however should be tight primarily because the index is on a long term bullish trend and secondly due to the Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow which can cause volatility spikes above this level. TP1 = 25,980, TP2 = 25,820 (essentially the 4H Support Zone).
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Dow: 100 MA Crosses under 200 MADow broke out trendlines to the upside yesterday and also closed above its 100 MA and 200 MA for three days but its 100 MA crossed below 200 MA the first time since 2015 with a divergence of RSI on the daily chart.
The Dow's 100 MA/200 MA crossing down could mean a lot from a long term perspective and we might see what would follow soon.
Dow gaps up opening today and now shows lower lows and lower highs on its 15 Min chart. It seems it might be a turning point date today and we will know it for sure after the closing bell.
Have we missed the big picture on stocks?This study focuses on the very long term trading chart of Dow Jones since the Great Depression in an effort to determine if stock holding remains safe following the markets cyclical correction since last September.
So far during each of the post war bull cycles every cyclical correction within the channels was supported on the previous Higher High. The only exception was 1990 but was reasonable due to the 87 flash crash of Black Monday.
The growth and duration of the current bull cycle (following the sub-prime crisis) is calculated on the average values of the previous too, although based on the relative ratios, each bullcycle may tend to be more aggressive and grow more and each consolidation/ bear cycle shorter in duration.
What those metrics show is that the current cyclical correction should not exceed 18500 and if this low is made it should be inside 2019 and start recovering towards the end of the year. Quarterly investors can look to allocate 50% of their portfolio on the current prices and the other 50% close to 18500, in preparation for the second phase of the current bull cycle.
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S&P 500 Rally Could ContinueThe U.S. stock markets have rallied nicely after last quarter's end of year route.
This is encouraging generally speaking for the market and overall economy. The current price structure looks like the trend could continue and even push close to previous all time highs.
With a Super Pivot Stack in place the price action suggests a move higher from here. At the very least the bias has shifted long.
Buy on confirmation of strength, if the price trades above the current session high, at about 2588.50 and place a stop loss at 2483.00. The profit target is 2752.00.
Nasdaq: Buy opportunity on identical fractals.Nasdaq has so far made a +13.55% rise from the December low, the strongest bullish sequence since the October All Time Highs. If this sequence is not a Dead Cat Bounce, then we've spotted a fractal that shows it can make an additional +8.45% rise in the coming weeks.
Illustrated in orange is the December 02 - December 25 candle sequence that led to the recent 5,820 low. Since then, the current bullish candle sequence is identical to that, only inversed of course. Essentially so far it looks like it is the same fractal. Now there are a lot (mostly fundamental) reasons that can break this candle sequence (without necessarily changing the bullish course) but it can be a useful guide for the long entries.
Based on the ATH/ 5,820 low Fibonacci retracement levels, a more modest long TP would be the 0.5000 retracement of 6,777.50 if you want to avoid taking the 100% fractal risk.
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