S&P500 Buy Signal / Strong supporting linePattern: Higher Lows on the 4H chart.
Signal: Buy as the index rebounded not only on the former Lower Highs trend-line (dashed line), but also on the newly formed Higher Lows trend-line.
Target: 3660 (just below the 3675 Resistance).
Recent S&P signals:
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Stockindex
Candle and wedge pattern - Starring The Aussies! This is an interesting position. Anything is possible. No advice is given. New traders may need to study these patterns and practice on paper trading accounts.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
S&P500 Why do you keep ignoring the 4H MA50?Isn't that true? Since the index broke above it on September 28, the MA50 on the 4H chart has been the most reliable buy entry you could get. So far (counting yesterday) this happened three times. I've mentioned this potential on a few studies with the most recent one as seen below:
Technically every Higher High on this Channel Up is on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension of the previous High. See how consistent this has been on two occasions. This sets the target at 3460.
Based on a recurring RSI sequence (Channel Down accumulation into a strong bullish break-out), the price may be preparing an even stronger jump.
Don't lose sight of the greater picture:
Are you gonna keep ignoring the 4H MA50? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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POTENTIAL EXPLOIT: Aussies in trouble.The 4H position on the AUS200, could be an advantagious exploit for a controlled affordable loss.
1 - The Aussies tend to follow the DJI and USTech 100.
2 - But there is usually a time lag of between 30 mins and 2 hours.
3 - The DJI did a major leg down but the Aussies barley flinched after a major bull run yesterday.
I've seen it many times, where they catch up after that delay. Then they panic.
As the DJI could be moving south from the base of a head and shoulders pattern (see my posts), then if the Aussies follow south and panic - it could be a nice exploit. Remember your risk controls please.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
29k succesfully reached! 🐂Despite the turbulent news regarding the upcoming presidential election and the uncertain economic recovery, the bullish scenario remains intact.
The index has hit the 29k region and is still going strong. The 29k points was the first target from the last Dow Jones Update.
Should the bulls break out of the yellow target box, above 29559 points, the path for a direct rally to 30500 points will be paved. This, however, is our alternative scenario that we give a probability of 35%.
Our primary scenario projects a slow and steady sell-off in Wave 4 in Green to at least 27900 points, before the bulls push the Dow Jones toward new all-time highs.
If you are Long, since 27600 points, you can use this area to take home some profits and reload after wave 4 in Green has completed.
Feel free to share your thoughts.
Happy to discuss the next move.
Dow Jones: Sell opportunity within the Channel Up.DJI is trading within a Channel Up on the 4H chart (RSI = 55.798, MACD = 115.900, ADX = 32.013) since late June. Today the MACD made a red cross, the RSI has already since Aug 11th hit its Resistance, and it looks as if the Higher High is priced in. We are expecting the price to touch the 4H MA50 once again around 27,100.
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DOW JONES Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: (A) Sell as the RSI got rejected on its Resistance Zone. Wait for the MACD to cross in order to open the position. (B) Buy if the 28160 Resistance breaks.
Target: (A) 27000 (projected contact with the 4H MA50). (B) 29700 (+14.50% rise from the Higher Low).
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S&P Trading PlanPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price is close to the Higher Highs trend-line of the pattern with the MACD flat.
Target: 3320 and if 3310 breaks, extension to 3270.
Most recent S&P trade:
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S&P Trading PlanPattern: Bullish Megaphone
Signal: (A) Buy as long as the 3200 Support holds, (B) Bearish if it breaks.
Target: (A) 3325 (just below the Higher Highs trend-line), (B) 3150 (just above the Higher Lows trend-line).
Most recent signal:
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S&P500: Testing the Support. Action plan.S&P is trading within a Channel Up on the 4H chart (RSI = 43.121, MACD = 1.310, ADX = 35.999) and is right now testing not only the 3,200 Support but also the Higher Low trend-line of the Channel Up.
This is a bullish signal which we are taking and will close within 3,275 - 3,292, which is practically the Resistance Zone. If however the 3,200 Support breaks, we will switch to selling towards the 3,115 Support.
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S&P500: Ascending Triangle on 4H.S&P500 made a (near) Double Top on the 4H chart marginally breaking the 3,240 Resistance but failing back below it quickly and is now consolidating (RSI = 58.904, MACD = 10.230, ADX = 31.641). We may have an Ascending Triangle in the making, which even though a break above 3,242 is possible (look at MACD), there are more bias to the downside, namely the 4H MA50 and MA200. The Support of the Ascending Triangle is at 3,115, which would make a perfect Higher Low on the (green) dominant trend-line.
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DOW JONES Sell SignalPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Bearish as the price was rejected on the Megaphone's Higher High trend-line and broke through the (dashed) inner Higher High line.
Target: 24250 (roughly a -6% decline like the previous Higher High rejections, as well as contact with the 4H MA200).
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Previous DOW JONES trade:
DOWJONES Is this the countertrend rally of the Great Depression?I will not spend much time describing this as the chart is pretty much self-explanatory.
I have plotted Dow Jones trend of 1915 - 1945 (orange line) which includes the Great Depression against the trend of the recent decades (late 90s to 2020) which is displayed in blue.
Do you think they look similar? And if so are we currently on a similar counter-trend rally as in the start of the Great Depression? The comments section is yours, let me know!
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P.S. For the record, I am not trying to scare anyone, just shared an interesting comparison.
DAX Consolidation and possible top formationJust an observation on DAX. The index is consolidating within the 10150 Support and 11335 Resistance with the 1D RSI ranged too around roughly 53.00. Last time it was trading within those RSI levels was from December 2019 to February 2020. The sharp sell-off took place then. It appears that investors are once again unsure on how to move forward with the index and it may be a possible top formation where the market takes the March/ April profits heavily.
Just a thought. What do you think?
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Previous DAX trade:
S&P500 Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: (A) Bearish as the price is near the Higher High trend-line of the pattern. (B) Bullish if the Channel Up breaks above its Higher High trend-line.
Target: (A) 2830 (just above the inner Higher Low trend-line). (B) 3100.
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(FR40) Index to hit 4600 EUR Pretty SoonFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on opinion based basis and not meant to be taken seriously. That being said, let me get into my opinion. FR40 which is a French stock index for the Euronext Paris, have been hit pretty significantly as a result of Covid19 after being on a bullish recovery for almost a year prior. Now, as the markets are weighting in and people are starting to "panic sell less", I believe it is about to pass the 4600 euro threshold and likely to go on a stable price recovery trend. The 4600 EUR threshold crossing is likely within a week or so at most, but the recovery process is more of a long afterwards.
DOW JONES Signs of the Great Depression?This is a DJI comparison of the Great Depression and the phase that preceded it against the current COVID sell-off and the phase since the DotCom bubble that led to it.
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As you see both time phases are Megaphone patterns. Both started on high volatility (A,B,C,D) while the Megaphone was emerging and after testing the Higher High trend line for the longest time of the phase (E), the price broke above it making an over-extension (F). This is usually where most retail and other dumb money are trapped during recessions. What followed (F) during the Great Depression was of course a complete and lengthy collapse of the system, the worst recession in history. Also look how harmonically the 1M MA100 is moving on both patterns.
Will history repeat itself? I want to know your opinion about it.
*For the record the purpose of this comparison is not to spread panic, I will leave it to the mainstream media to do so. But it is so intriguing that I think can make a great discussion in the comment section below! So will it fill the gap?
S&P500: Sell opportunity on the 1D MA50 rejection.On our last trading set-up we mentioned the potential that the Channel Down could be wider and since the 4H MA50 broke, the pattern would fill in a Lower High near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement:
Right now we use the 1D chart (RSI = 52.588, MACD = -25.640, ADX = 24.177) and see that the recent stochastic run is being exhausted (STOCH = 83.359, STOCHRSI = 72.755). The reason is the 1D MA50 which is adding high selling pressure on the Lower High trend line of the Channel Down.
We are therefore now turning into medium term selling with our Targets being the Supports: 2,450 and 2,200 respectively.
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