S&P500 Giant Cup and Handle completed? 5000 realistic now?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Down since the mid-July High. Last week though made a strong reversal on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA200, closed the candle in green and is about to do so again for the 2nd straight week today. Ahead of a 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross (the first in 7 years), this Channel Down can be interpreted as nothing more than the Handle of a Giant Cup and Handle pattern. We can argue that the whole Inflation Crisis of 2022 has been a Cup and Handle with the subsequent market recovery.
The breaking of the 1W RSI Higher Lows trend-line indicates on the macro level a shift to a new, less aggressive trend, as the 2023 rally isn't easily sustainable without more fundamental catalysts. As a result, as long as the MA Support Cluster holds, we resume being bullish long-term. Target 1 is 4700 (bottom of the All Time High Resistance Zone) and by Q2 2024 Target 2 at 5000.
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Stockindexsignals
NASDAQ Channel Down or Bullish Flag?Nasdaq (NDX) broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and has almost reached the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern that started after the July 19 High. The 1D STOCH RSI Bearish Cross suggests that this is a sell opportunity on the short-term at least, towards 14900 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement level).
But what if this is not a Channel Down but a Bullish Flag pattern after a relentless 2023 price growth? In that case we will need to wait for confirmation in the form of a break-out above the last Lower High (and current Resistance level) at 15630. After that, we will buy the first pull-back below it and target the 16780 All Time High of November 2021, which interestingly enough is only a fraction below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, a standard technical target in case of Bullish Flag break-outs.
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S&P500 Potentially made the biggest rebound of the next 12monthsWe have shown numerous times that the S&P500 (SPX) was in a 2.5 month Channel Down/ corrective move but all within the larger Channel Up pattern, which keeps the long-term trend bullish ever since the bottom recovery last October (2022). Much like that bottom which was formed by the rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), 12 months after (October 2023), the index may have just made the most important rebound for another 12-month period.
What was the 1W MA200 then, is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which are about to form a Bullish Cross, the first since September 2016. In fact last week's candle hit the 1W MA100 and rebounded immediately, almost closing the body candle flat, leaving a large wick underneath it, an even stronger reversal than even the October 10 2022 1W candle.
If that wasn't enough, the index hit (and as mentioned rebounded) the Former Resistance Zone of May 2022 through May 2023. In times of such transitions from a Bear to a Bull Cycle, we see the market technically testing former Resistances to make Demand Zones and turn them into Support levels.
On top of that, this week the index just entered into green Ichimoku Cloud territory for the first time since September 05 2022. All this while the 1W RSI bounced off a 18 month Higher Lows trend-line.
It is obvious that if this 5-level Support Zone holds, it can extend the 12-month Channel Up pattern to its next Higher High. Assuming a similar to the previous two bullish legs, +20% rise leg will take place, we expect the S&P500 to target 5000.
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DAX has started the new Channel Down bullish legDAX hit last week the bottom (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down that started after the July 31 High. Technically that is a short-term buy signal, aimed at the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the top of the Channel Down. Our current target is 15500 (also on a +3.70% symmetry with the previous bullish leg of the Channel).
A 1D candle close above the Channel Up will be a bullish break-out signal targeting 15920 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement level). But until it does, the trend will remain bearish within the Channel Down, targeting the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) at 14750.
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RUSSELL 2000 Holding the key Bull Cycle Support. Disaster below?Russell 200 (RUT) has had a big safeguard on the current Bull Cycle following the Housing Crisis bottom in 2009. The symmetrical Zone that was formed on the previous All Time High (ATH) has always held once it transitioned into Support upon periods of corrections (with the natural exception of COVID) and provided the framework for the rebound initiation of the next rally.
This time the previous ATH Zone has been continuously tested since May 2022 and so far has closed all candles above it. October has already entered this Support Zone with the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) right below it and the longer it holds, the sooner it will also enter the Zone. When the 1M MA100 broke during the COVID collapse, the flash crash extended almost as low as the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
Naturally the market conditions now are severely different than then, but the Support Zone must hold at all costs. If it breaks, the distress signal that will send may echo across high cap markets, especially the technology sector.
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DOW JONES Channel Up Double Bottom. Solid buy entry either way.Dow Jones (DJI) is rising following a vastly oversold 1D RSI reading (reached even 23.60) at the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up. Based on the RSI pattern itself, we can draw comparisons with the December 2022 - March 2023 correction. According to that the 1D RSI has one more Low to make before it bottoms and that bottom will be leg (e). This will justify the emergence of a diverging Channel Up (dotted), where leg (e) will be its Higher Low while also completing a symmetrical -9.30% decline from the top.
Still, the price has dipped well below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was March's bottom formation, thus either entry is equally probable. As a result it is best to buy on both levels so that a low risk indeed opportunity won't be missed. Our target is 35000, which is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level as well as Resistance 1.
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NASDAQ Reality will soon hit those who bet against the market.Nasdaq (NDX) has been on a 3-month correction since its July High. No need to mention that this High almost touched its All Time High (ATH), almost recovering in less than 1 year the value lost in the Bear Cycle.
** 2010 Higher Lows and Megaphone **
The Higher Lows (dashed) trendline that has been in place since 2010 after the recovery from the 2008 - 2009 Housing Crisis started, held during the 2022 Inflation Bear Market and gave way to a Channel Up. We can claim that since mid-2018 the market entered into a Bullish Megaphone pattern and such Channel Up formations have been the common vessels to a Higher High.
** Uncertainty/ Doubt / Disbelief **
Similarly common have been minor (on a 1W scale) corrections such as the pull-back we are witnessing since July. During market uptrends, those are called 'Bull Flags'. Especially in the beginning of the recovery those are met with Uncertainty/ Doubt / Disbelief. For that reason the majority doesn't get in on the trend until it is well underway. Even the 1W RSI shows how consistent this Symmetrical Support Zone has been throughout all those Channels. Even the Higher Lows trend-line from May 2022 is still holding.
** First Bullish Cross since 2010 **
On top of all the above, Nasdaq is about to completed a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line)/ 1W MA100 (green trend-line) Bullish Cross, the first since February 2010 (which as mentioned is post Housing Crisis). The price will enter next week into green Ichimoku territory, which when formed indicates significant upside potential on a well establish bull trend.
We expect this to be the end of the 3-month correction and the resume of the uptrend. Based on the previous runs, NDX is aiming at 17800 towards the Christmas rally and 21500 in Q3 2024.
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NASDAQ Small glimmer of hope as 1D making a MACD Bullish Cross.Nasdaq (NDX) recently broke below the Higher Lows trend-line of 2023, the trend-line from the start of the year that has been supporting the strong recovery. This created the conditions for further decline, especially since the 4H MA50 keeps the price action below it, but so far Support 1 (14430) is holding.
The above levels are those we will use as break-outs. A candle close below Support 1 will be a sell signal, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 13900. Since however the 1D MACD is close to forming a Bullish Cross, the bullish momentum attract probabilities and if a candle closes above the 1D MA50, we will instead buy, targeting 15650 (Resistance).
The pattern since mid August is quite similar to the Arc formation of November - December 2022. After the 1D MA50 broke, it targeted the previous Resistance and even hit the 1.382 Fibonacci extension before the next pull-back.
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S&P500 It is very important that this Support Cluster holds.The S&P500 (SPX) is testing the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 12-month Channel Up pattern. It is vital for the uptrend that the following Support Cluster holds, as if broken, the next Demand/ Support Zone is seen considerably lower, in the low 3800s.
Back to the Support Zone. Besides the bottom of the Channel Up, we have the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) moving parallel to that and has been unbroken since March 24. More importantly, the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) a former Resistance turned into Support after May's break-out, is marginally below the 1D MA200 and on a former Resistance Zone, which in the past 18 months, only broken twice.
As long as the price closes 1D candles above this critical Support cluster, we expect a short-term (at least) rise to test the top of the Channel Down and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 4430. If the Support fails, expect a greater and perhaps quicker/ more aggressive decline towards 3830 and the former Support Zone.
Notice how the 1D RSI pattern resembles the August - September 2022 correction.
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DAX Bottom rebound buy opportunity to 15650.DAX (DE40) has made a short-term bottom near the Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel Down after hitting the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is a short-term buy signal to at least 15650, which is on the Channel's top and represents a symmetrical +3.66% rise similar to the previous Lower High leg. If it doesn't get rejected, this is where the Fibonacci retracement levels come forward. The 0.382 Fib is almost exactly on our target.
A break above, which would also be a break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), targets Resistance 1 (15995), which is exactly on the 0.618 Fib. Only a candle closing above that Resistance justifies a bullish reversal for the long-term.
If the 1D MA50 doesn't break, we expect the Channel Down to look for a 1W candle closing below the 1W MA50, which can technically deliver a downward extension towards the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) on the 6-month Support Zone. If that scenario prevails, we will need to see a clear indication that this will be the same High Demand Zone as during March 15 - 24, when all attempts to break it reversed emphatically as most candles closed above it leaving long wicks inside the Zone.
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S&P500 Entered the 2 year High Supply/Demand Zone. Will it hold?Time to leave the short-term charts for S&P500 (SPX) aside and look again at the long-term ones as the price failed last week to recover the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is extending this week the decline towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
** Higher Lows and 2-year Supply/ Demand Zone **
It hasn't yet hit the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom but has entered a 2 year High Supply/ Demand Zone, which has acted as the strongest Pivot Belt since October 2021, with 4 registered holds (green arrows) and 4 rejections (red arrows). It is clear that the market considered it a key during the previous Bear Cycle as well as the Bull Cycle.
** Inflation Crisis vs Subprime mortgage Crisis **
As you can see on the chart, we compare this Inflation Crisis price action with the bottom and subsequent recovery of the Subprime mortgage crisis in 2009 - 2010. The curved bottom on the 1D RSI suggests that we are so far aligned to a certain extent with the first susbtantial correction of the recovery which on May 06 2010 hit (and breached) the 1D MA200. The bottom was priced 2 months later on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
** So what now? **
The 0.382 Fibonacci on today's sequence is on 4185, marginally above the bottom of the Pivot Zone and almost where the 1D MA200 is currently. This presents us with the probability that if the Higher Lows fails and the 1D MA200 breaks, the market has high chances to consider the bottom of the 2-year Pivot Zone as a High Demand level again. If that happens, we will be buyers for as long as 1D candles close above the bottom of the Zone. Based on the 2009 - 2010 price action, it can rise towards the -0.236 Fib ext and reach the 4820 All Time High (ATH) by Q2 2024.
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NASDAQ Is this what the markets fear the most?More than a month (August 16) ago we called for caution on Nasdaq (NDX) after calling for a short on the 1W MACD Bearish Cross formation (see chart below):
This analysis didn't receive the attention it should as it delivered bad news that market participants wanted to ignore. The 1W MACD Bearish Cross on such a high level hasn't been seen since 2021 and that brought memories of the Inflation Crash.
This week the index broke below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) for the first time in 6 months with the 1W RSI turning neutral below 55.00 after being massively overbought from late May to late July. So far this looks like a healthy (and much needed) correction, similar to the 1D MA100 hit-and-rebounds of October 26 2020, March 01 2021, May 10 2021, September 27 2021.
The common characteristic on all was that no 1W candle closed below the 1W MA100 and no selling sequence broke below the Support provided by the first candle that approached or hit the 1D MA100. This time that Support is at 14550. So far the current pattern resembles more the August - October 2020 fractal as the 1W MACD Bearish Cross is the widest while also formed after an incredible rally from the market bottom (it was the COVID flash crash recovery then). Check also the 1W RSI which is remarkably symmetrical.
Also every such fractal that didn't cause a crash, broke quickly above a Lower Highs trend-line. The only one that didn't was the market peak fractal of November 2021.
In our opinion, as long as Nasdaq holds the 14550 Support, it will become a buy opportunity the moment it breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line. In that case, we will resume our 16770 long-term Buy Target (and All Time High). If however it closes a 1W candle below the Support, we would expect a sharp sell-off to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), as it happened on the January 17 2022 candle. In that case we will need the fundamentals that will surround the market at the time, to determine the risk of buying at 13500 (projected contact level with the 1W MA50.
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DAX Bullish as long as the 1D MA200 holds.DAX (DE40) has been neutral on the 1D time-frame, trading sideways within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) since August 03. We can see two clear Support and Resistance Zones. Today the price is approaching once more the 1D MA200, following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision, so it is a buy opportunity again. Target the bottom of the Resistance Zone at 16000.
Apart from that, the Fibonacci retracement levels since the July 31 High, make solid Supports and Resistances, with the 0.5 Fib currently being one.
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S&P500 Ascending Triangle giving a bottom buy signal.The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us last week an accurate quick buy signal (see chart below) but then got sold-off to a new 3-week Low:
The price hit yesterday during that sell-off the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Ascending Triangle pattern that is in place since the August 04 High (which created its 4540 top/ Resistance). This is a short-term buy signal and will be confirmed if the 4H MACD completes the emerging Bullish Cross.
The immediate Resistance is the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) - 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) Zone and the short-term is the Lower Highs trend-line since the September 01 High. That will be our target, aiming at a +1.77% rise (proportionally less than the previous) at 4490.
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DOW JONES Strong bullish leg within a Bullish Megaphone.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us a strong bottom buy signal 8 days ago (see chart below):
On today's idea we look at the 1H time-frame, which offers a buy opportunity for quick 1-2 day profit as the index is on a strong bullish leg within a newly formed Bullish Megaphone. Based on the 1H RSI which turned overbought and the 1H MACD which just formed a Bearish Cross, this sequence resembles the August 28 - 31 fractal and we could be on a similar position as on August 30.
That was the final consolidation before the bullish leg made its peak on Resistance 1 (35100). Due to the Bullish Megaphone, this time it can go a little higher, so today's buy position targets 35150.
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S&P500 Short-term buy within the weekly Channel Up.The S&P500 (SPX) hit today the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 06, which was before the current 5-day Channel Up pattern. So far it delivers an initial rejection, whose pull-back can extend even below the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Based on the 1H RSI though, which is posting a sequence similar to September 07 - 08, we are close to the reversal point, making it already a buy opportunity. You can confirm that after the price closes a candle above the 1H MA200. Regardless, our target is at the end of a +1.27% increase and the top of the Channel Up at 4500.
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DOW JONES Last buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.Dow Jones (DJI) got rejected on August 31 on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and that made the price pull-back. We are now close to the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) again, which is where the initial rebound started on August 25, exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up.
This is the final buy opportunity on this pattern, as any closing below it would be a pattern invalidation and the trend would change to bearish on the long-term. Key to this, is the formation of a 4H Golden Cross, which could be only 4-5 days away. The last such formation was on June 09 and as with the one that preceded that, it will be a bullish signal.
We will wait for either a new 1D MA50 test or a completed 4H Golden Cross in order to buy with the lowest risk possible. Target 1 will be 36000 and Target 2 36900 (just below the All Time High).
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S&P500 Rising Wedge's short-term pull-back to the 1D MA50The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us the expected pull-back and buy entry within the Rising Wedge as per our last week analysis (chart below):
The long-term structure is a Channel Up, so plan your trades in case of a Rising Wedge break-out. On the short-term, we expect the price to pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the bottom of the Rising Wedge at 4140. As long as the pattern holds, buy and target the top at 4250. If the top of the Wedge breaks, target 4295m just shy off the long-term Resistance of 4327 (August 15 2022 High).
We will sell on the medium-term only if the price breaks below Support Zone 1 and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), above Support Zone 2 and at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up. The 1D RSI Triangle pattern can give an early signal with regards to the direction in case of a break-out.
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NIFTY poised to test its All Time High this week.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) is extending the long-term Channel Up pattern that started after the March 20 2023 Low, when the 16750 Support held. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting for exactly 2 months and this week the technical Higher High and test of the 18890 Resistance (which is the All Time High) should be materialized.
As you see, the similarities between the current Channel Up and that of October - November 2022 as strong. It appears that the price is at the final stage (curve pattern), before the final rally. The 4H RSI break-out above the Lower Highs is another strong resemblance. This trend is invalidated if the price breaks below the 4H MA200 (target the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Our target is 18800 for safety, slightly below the Resistance just like the March 20 2023 Low was slightly above the Support.
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NASDAQ One last low is possible before new ATHNasdaq has been particularly week this month as yesterday's rejection saw the price back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again and near the December 03 low. We do remain inside a year-long Channel Up but the very structure of this pattern allows for one final Lower Low before making a bottom.
As you see on the chart, every time NDX broke the last Low of the previous uptrend (bold black line), the price dropped either around -8.50% or -12.00%, while the RSI bottomed within the 35.000 - 30.000 Support Zone. Neither of that has happened yet and technically when either of those happens first, then that would be a good estimate for a bottom on Nasdaq.
A -8.50% pull-back from the top would place the price at around 15,350 while a -12.00% at around 14,750. The latter however would mean a break below both the Channel Up and the Higher Lows trend-line that is holding since November 02 2020, while at the same time making a direct hit on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Thus I consider it far less likely. For a long-term trader, even the fact that we are currently around the 1D MA50, translates into a good buy opportunity.
Our Target on a 1.5 - 2.0 months horizon is 17600 which is slightly below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, a standard target for NDX after such a bottom.
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DOW JONES This fractal shows $35500 long-termPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the index seems to be replicating the February/ March 2021 fractal. Every pull-back on each Resistance (R) is a buy opportunity.
Target: $35100 (Resistance (R)2) short-term and $35500 (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension) long-term.
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S&P Trading PlanPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price is close to the Higher Highs trend-line of the pattern with the MACD flat.
Target: 3320 and if 3310 breaks, extension to 3270.
Most recent S&P trade:
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