S&P500 Bottom of the 8-month Channel. Strong buy signal.The S&P50 index (SPX) broke on Wednesday below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 06 and yesterday touched the bottom of the 8-month Channel Up pattern that started after the October 27 2024 market Low.
Technically we are on the most optimal buy level on the medium-term and this is possibly the reason that the day has started on a bullish note. The 1D RSI is at the same time at 40.00 for the first time in 3 months, so slightly into the long-term Buy Zone.
As long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) holds, we will be bullish, targeting 6200 (below a the +28.56% mark, which was the % rise of the previous Bullish Leg). If the price breaks below the 1D MA100, we will short up to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) where we will buy again heavily for the long-term (same Target).
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Stockindexsignals
DOW JONES Correction isn't over yet. See where to buy.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) made initially a direct hit on our July 05 (see 1st chart below) 41000 Target and following the rejection then, is on its way of hitting the 39200 downside Target (July 17, 2nd chart below) as well:
Zooming out to the long-term pattern again after a while, we can still see that the dominant technical structure is a Channel Up that first started on the September 30 2022 inflation crisis bottom.
On the more medium-term, we can isolate a (dashed) Channel Up that started on the April 19 2024 Low. It appears that the current correction is technically its new Bearish Leg. Symmetrically, we should be expecting the new Higher Low to make contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That is our first buy entry.
The second is just below the 0.5 Fibonacci Channel level, which can potentially make near contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), a strong long-term Support. That scenario is drawn based on the October 27 2023 bottom which was after a symmetrical correction (-9.25%) with the March 20 2023 bottom. Similarly, the current Bearish Leg could be symmetrical (-6.84%) with the correction that led to the April 18 2024 Low.
For both buy entries, our new long-term Target will be 42400 (Higher High on the medium-term Channel Up).
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NASDAQ Held the 1D MA50 and is rebounding.Nasdaq (NDX) almost hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on Friday and immediatelly rebounded yesterday, in anticipation of high cap earnings starting tonight with Tesla and Alphabet. The 1D MA50 has been intact as the major Support of the Channel Up pattern since May 06.
The previous two Bullish Legs rallied at least +10.37% before the next short-term pull-back, so we are setting a new Higher High (top of the Channel Up) Target on Nasdaq at 21450.
Notice also the harmonic occurrence of the bottoms (Higher Lows) of the Channel Up as highlighted by the Sine Waves.
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S&P500 The correction is over. Bullish trend intact.The S&P500 (SPX) has been rising steadily since our June 17 bullish break-out signal (see chart below) and despite this week's pull-back, the upward pattern remains unchanged:
As long as it continues to be supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we remain bullish with our Target intact at 5800, marginally below the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
On a side-note, observe the uncanny symmetry between the RSI structures of the Bullish Legs. We are now on a similar pull-back recovery formation as on the January 31 2024 and June 26 2023 short-term Lows.
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DOW JONES Top of its Channel. Sell opportunity.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) hit our 41000 Target as projected on our last analysis (July 10, see chart below) and reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 3-month Channel Up:
The Bullish leg competed a rise around the same levels as the previous one (7.87% against 7.65%), so we can assume the symmetry will continue to shape within this pattern and affect the Bearish Legs too.
The previous Bearish Leg made a -5.14% decline. Our Target is 39200, marginally above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
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NASDAQ Still a few weeks before it tops.Nasdaq (US100) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November 2022 market bottom and at the moment is unfolding its 3rd major Bullish Leg of the pattern. Supported on the short-term by the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), the index is aiming for at least a +26.20% rise from the April 15 Low, as the 2nd Bullish Leg rose by 5% less than the first.
The price has entered its peak formation process on the Channel Up Higher Highs as the 1W RSI has been overbought (above 70.00) for a month, similar to when the top started forming in June 26 2023 and February 2024.
Our immediate short-term Target remains 21300 as per our previous analysis.
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DAX Sell opportunity at the top of this pattern.DAX (FDAX1!) has been following our May 17 (see chart below) projected path very closely and as mentioned, it has been a repeat of the May - July 2023 Megaphone consolidation so far:
The price is back above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again and we have adjusted the Megaphone to the wider price-action that was given, in contrast to the 2023 one. As a result, we are expecting the index to get rejected around the top of the Megaphone and the long-term Channel Up.
That will be our next short-term sell opportunity, targeting 18000 (the June 14 Low), which by the time of the rejection should be very close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the untested long-term Support level since November 15 2023.
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S&P500 Short-term buy signal.The S&P500 index (SPX) is just after the middle of the new Bullish Leg of the 3-month Channel Up, supported by both the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line). The Sine Waves have been very efficient at projecting the bottoms and tops (Higher Lows and Higher Highs respectively) throughout the pattern.
Right now the index is approaching such a top and once the 4H RSI makes a Double Top, it will be time to take profit. Rough projection, we expect that to be around 5700 and that is our Target unless the RSI double tops earlier.
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DOW JONES Looking to break above the 3-month Triangle.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been consolidating within an Ascending Triangle since the April 01 High and recently is being supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since June 17.
As long as it continues to hold, there are higher probabilities to finally break above the Triangle's top (Resistance 1). If it does, the pattern will transition into a Channel Up that will aim for a new Higher High.
The first Bullish Leg extended to as high as +7.52%. The 1.382 Fibonacci extension is technically the break-out target on these occasions, so our Target is in the middle of those levels at 41000.
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NASDAQ Slow and steady rise within a 3-month pattern.Nasdaq (NDX) is simply extending the new Bullish Leg of the now almost 3-month (since April 19) Channel Up (blue) pattern. Supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it should stay this way until the next Higher High, which we anticipate to be at 21300 at least.
That will be almost a968% rise, which is the smallest Bullish leg registered on the May 23 Higher High. The other was +10.40%, so there is a high degree of symmetry among the Legs of this Channel Up.
The 4H CCI on each Bullish Leg is also fairly symmetrical and it shows where we cyrrently might be relative to the previous sequences. Note also that the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) has been unbroken since May 06 (more than 2 months), indicating that at the moment is the strongest medium-term Support.
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DOW JONES All patterns pointing to a bullish break-out.We have seen today's pattern on one of our previous analyses (June 14, see chart below) but on the 1W time-frame:
Today we make some slight modifications as we view it on the short-term 1D time-frame. Dow Jones (DJI) continues to replicate the sequence of February 14 2023 - May 30 2023 and following the latest 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross, is ready to break above the (bold dashed) Ascending Triangle.
As you can see there is so far high symmetry between the two patterns. The 2023 one made a Higher High following the Triangle break-out on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the bottom. It had two identical Bullish Legs since that Low.
As a result, we are targeting at least 41000 on the medium-term, which is tightly located within the 1.382 Fib and a symmetrical +7.50% Bullish Leg.
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S&P500 Shifted to new bullish pattern. 5750 next.The S&P500 index (SPX) made a major bullish break-out in accordance to our previous analysis (June 17, see chart below), where we clearly stated that a break above the 1.5-year (Fibonacci) Channel Up pattern it would indicate a transition to a new (blue) Channel Up:
As you can see that happened and the index is extending that blue Channel, with the long-term prevailing pattern now being the dashed Channel Up. Technically it appears that the price is rising straight after finishing a Cup consolidation structure that is no stranger to it as we've seen it another two times, always leading in the end either to a 2.383 Fibonacci extension target or around +30% rise from the top.
On the current Bullish Leg, the 2.382 Fibonacci extension comes much lower than a potential +30% rise from the April 19 bottom, so as mentioned on our previous analysis, we will be targeting (this time slightly lower) at 5750. If the 2.382 Fib breaks and we close a 1W candle above it, we will extend buying all the way to +30%, i.e. just above 6300.
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NASDAQ Nothing to stop this uptrend. Next stop 21300.Time to update our Nasdaq (NDX) thesis from 2 weeks ago (June 20, see chart below), where we called for a pull-back and then a buy on a 20700 Target:
As you can see we got the short-term correction within the (dotted) Channel Up and the index resumed the long-term uptrend of the 8-month (blue) Channel Up. Supported by both the 4H MA200 (red trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we expect this uptrend to be extended in a similar way as the January 2024 post 4H MA200 correction rebound.
That sequence completed a +25.78% from the October 2023 bottom, before pulling back near the 4H MA200 again. As a result, we upgrade our Target to 21300, closer to the top of the long-term Channel Up. See also how symmetrical the 1D MACD fractals are between the 2 sequences. We should now be expecting a Bullish Cross, to confirm this Leg's continuation.
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DOW JONES is on an expansion phase until late 2025.Dow Jones (DJI) closed the 2nd straight green month (1M candle), something that isn't discussed a lot amidst the pessimistic views lately across the market. Technically, since the bounce on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), the index entered a new Expansion Leg inside the Channel Up that started after the 2008 Housing Crisis.
Each Bullish Leg has been so far more aggressive than the previous but even if Dow repeats the 'weakest' one, we will still look for a +75.32% rise since the September 2022 bottom. This translates into a long-term Target of 50000, which can extend as long as late 2025.
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NASDAQ Literally nothing to stop this long-term rally.Earlier this month (June 07, see chart below), we explained why we were very bullish long-term on Nasdaq (NDX) using the 1W time-frame:
The price rose from 19000 to 19750 since and there is literally no technical sign of stopping this tremendous rally yet. In fact, today we bring you another approach, this time on the 2M time-frame.
As you can see, since November 2023, the index is past a Bullish Cross on the 2M LMACD. Since the 2008 Housing Crisis, we have witnessed this signal only 3 times. In fact, despite the presence of a relentless 14-year Channel Up, the most recent LMACD Bullish Cross resembles more the first one on November 2009.
Even though the 2022 Inflation Crisis wasn't the same as the 2008 Housing Crisis, it is the strongest we saw since then. The chart clearly shows that 2-year Channel Up (blue)/ Bullish Legs have been the vessels of upward continuation within the 14-year Channel, while at the same time +135% rises have been quite common.
As a result, before the current rally takes a breather, we can expect to see as high as even 24500 (+135% from the November 2022 bottom).
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DAX Medium-term buy opportunity.Last time we looked at DAX (FDAX1!) it gave us another successful sell signal (May 17) at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 9-month Channel Up:
This time it is issuing a medium-term buy signal as after reaching the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 6-month Channel Up, while hitting and holding the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as Support, it is sustaining an upward consolidation.
The last Higher Lows was also priced after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and supported by the 1D MA100 and the only confirmation left to form an identical pattern with that is for the 1D RSI to complete a Bullish Cross. As you can see, that has historically been a very reliable buy signal.
Our Target is 19300, which is marginally lower than the previous +8.80% Bullish Leg, but almost exactly on the Internal Higher Highs trend-line.
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S&P500 Seeking the 4H MA200 for buyersThe S&P500 index (SPX) got rejected at the top of the 2-month Channel Up that started on the April 19 bottom and is already below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a sign of weakness for the short-term and based on the previous two times it did so, it might be accelerated.
Technically, the market should seek the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as the Support, which is what took place on the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up on May 31. We are looking to turn bullish again close to the 4H MA200 and target 5650, which is not only at the top of the Channel Up but also below the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, which is where the previous two Higher Highs got priced.
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DOW JONES Ascending Triangle on its Bullish Leg.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) broke above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) again for the first time in a week, while holding the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. The dominant pattern is an Ascending Triangle and the price action appears to be repeating the previous Leg.
As you can see, following the bottom formation and accumulation (green Arc) on the Higher Lows trend-line, which followed the Bearish Leg in the form of a Channel Down, the previous Bullish Leg (dotted Channel Up) posted a strong rally, the 2nd phase of the structure, towards the Ascending Triangle's top at 40080 (Resistance 1) when it broke above the 4H MA200.
As a result, we are bullish as long as the Asc. Triangle holds, targeting 40000 (just under Resistance 1, bottom of the red Zone). If however the price breaks below the Asc. Triangle (Higher Lows), we will take the loss on the buy and open a sell instead, targeting 37250 (Support 1).
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NASDAQ Minor correction expected. Where to buy?Nasdaq (NDX) has almost reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 26 2023 bottom. The last Higher Low was made on April 19 2024 and ever since, a strong Bullish Leg in the form of a Channel Up (dotted), took the index above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (red trend-line).
Since the last Bullish Leg topped at around a +20.87% rise, we can assume that the price has entered a rejection zone. The only parameter left to confirm this, is for the 1D MACD to form a Bearish Cross. As you can see the two Bullish Legs are fairly similar so far in their price action.
With the late December 2023 - early January 2024 pull-back bottoming on the 4H MA200 exactly, we are expecting a symmetrical pull-back to that level again, where we will be looking to add more buys and target 20700 (top of the 8-month Channel Up).
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RUSSELL 2000 to bottom soon on the 1D MA200.Last time we looked into Russell 2000 (RUT) on May 09 (see chart below), we expected a technical pull-back, and even though it gave one more week of upside, the index eventually did start to correct:
As mentioned then, we see similarities with the January - March 2022 Bear Flag but mirrored (Bull Flag). That pattern made a Double Bottom on the 1980 Symmetrical Support. Since however it was the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) that offered the most recent Support (April 15), we expect the Double Bottom to take place this time on it.
The 1955 symmetrical level would be a fair projection but overall even on the current prices, the index is a solid R/R buy opportunity. Our Target is intact at 2293 (Resistance 2).
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S&P500 targeting 5800 if this level breaks.The S&P500 index (SPX) recovered from April's correction and rebounded on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) during late May's consolidation, much faster than all previous corrective phases within the 1.5 year Channel Up pattern.
This has resulted in the price testing again the top of that pattern, first time since April 01. So far it has been there but failed to break it 3 days in a row, which is an accelerating bearish signal and as long as it fails to break upwards, we expect another test (at least) of the 1D MA50.
If it does break though, and since as mentioned this corrective phase has been faster and weaker than the previous, there are higher probabilities to do so, we expect a new (blue) short-term Channel Up to emerge. That would be similar to the previous 2 Bullish Legs of the long-term Channel Up, only this time it will break above it and take the index to a new dominant pattern.
In any case, our medium-term Target on that occasion wil be 5800, even though on the long-term, we can see at least a +25% rise from the April 19 bottom.
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NIKKEI Rather long way until it bottoms but then +60% upside!NIKKEI (NI225) offers a very consistent long-term pattern when you look at it on the 1W time-frame. As you can see periodically, every roughly 3 years it peaks and then starts to correct through a Channel Down pattern towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
It was only fairly recently (in relative 1W terms) that the index sought and found support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) in October 2023, which started the rally leading to the March 2024 peak. If it follows the corrective Channel Down pattern that has been in effect for the past 9 years (since June 2015), then we may be a long way until we find a bottom.
The process doesn't need to be an aggressive one, in fact the last Channel Down that started in February 2021 bottomed in a long but very steady manner in March 2022 and even had a long bottoming process that lasted until January 2023 before the recent massive rally was initiated.
The 1W RSI patterns among those fractals are similar, so far in fact it is similar to the mid 2023 one that, as we mentioned above, 'only' corrected to the 1W MA50. As a result, we are expecting the current pull-back to extend at least as low as (near) the 1W MA50. If it breaks, we will only buy after it makes contact with the 1W MA200.
The Target process has also been very consistent throughout those 9 years, with each rise from the bottom being roughly over +60%. As a result, from the level the index bottoms, our Target will be at +60%.
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DOW JONES Bottom next week. 42k long-term Target.Dow Jones (DJI) is about to close a red 1W candle, staying flat basically for the 3rd week in a row. May's Double Top on Resistance 1 (40075) technically calls for an approach attempt on Support 1 (37250) but that doesn't invalidate the long-term bullish technicals as the pattern is a 1.5 year Channel Up.
As a result, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting since the week of October 30 2023, closing in towards Support 1, we expect a bottom to be formed next week when the 1W RSI makes a Lower Low. As you can see, the last 3 long-term buy opportunities have been when a 1W RSI Channel Down (blue) made a Lower Low.
Our long-term Target for Q4 is 42000 (just above the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level).
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