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THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW — TNX GOES NUTS!Bank of America says the recession and credit crunch could lead to large corporate defaults. Credit strategists at Bank of America note that the fallout from the recession and credit crunch could see $1 trillion in corporate debt eventually become insolvent. This is largely due to the fact that banks have already begun to refuse lending conditions after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. US debt growth has also slowed in recent years, and a "full blown" recession has yet to be officially declared. If a full-blown recession does not occur in the next year or two, the restart of the credit cycle will be delayed. For now, analysts still predict that a moderate/short recession is more likely than a full blown recession. Markets are increasingly nervous about the prospect of a future downturn, with the New York Fed's Recession Probability Index projecting appr. 70 percent chance of a recession hitting by April 2024. The risk comes from the Fed's aggressive 21-fold increase in interest rates over the past 15 months to tame inflation. The US Federal Reserve, having fired a lot of "HIKE RATE" ammos over the past two years. And certainly has fulfilled its goals. In fact, in the second quarter of 2023, the rolling 12-month growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (April value = 4.9%) was below the Core CPI (April value = 5.5%). In human words that means prices of food and energy are deflating year-over-year. To some extent, the risk is also heightened by the recent banking turmoil, as lenders suffer losses on their "HELD-TO-MATURITY" (and in fact "READY-TO-SELL") portfolios of long-term corporate bonds and US Government bonds, as well as in due to a sharp outflow of deposits. The technical picture in TVC:TNX says the key trend is still strong, thanks to tailwinds from the first quarter of 2022 and support of Weekly SMA(52). The second half of 2023 is off to an interesting start. High quality "AAA" 10-year Bond' yield is back to pain levels corresponding to the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange last fall, as well as the collapse of regional and cryptocurrency banks as early as this spring, 2023 (like SVB, FRC and others). At the same time, real (that is, minus inflation) rates are now certainly much higher, against each of those two marks, as inflation is down.
TVC:US10Y
by PandorraResearch
2
Why everyone is probably wrong - Part IVAnd why the stock market is about to melt up. The majority of market participants are bearish. From hedge fund managers to popular media outlets, everyone is calling for the crash of a lifetime. The above weekly chart tells a fascinating story. Could talk about it for hours. There are three line charts here. From top to bottom, 1) The Put / Call ratio. This is the number of Put contracts open. i.e. folks who are ‘short’ on the stock market. That includes Dr Michael Burry. 2) The S&P 500 index 3) The Put / Call Relative Strength Index Never in history have so many market participants been this bearish as is shown on the Put/Call chart (1). Am forever writing in the ideas I publish, 90% of market participants will lose money. This chart is screaming why the majority are about to be caught out.. Breaking it down.. A) Bearish divergence between the Put/Call ratio (1) and RSI (3) following an extreme overbought condition. Look left. Not only is the divergence confirmed lower highs are printing. B) Price action resistance breakouts. C) The stock market has ripped higher when the Put/Call ratio corrects. I know, this time is different ;-) Is it possible this is meaningless gibberish flying in the face of the economic fundamentals? For sure. Is it probable the market rips to new all time highs? Yes. Ww
CBOE:PUT
by without_worries
🔝 Nasdaq-100 Index: The House of Rising SunThe History is happening right here! ✨ Nasdaq-100 Index NASDAQ:NDX just set its Best First Half in almost 40 years since inception in 1985, with amazing 38.75% year-to-date return in 2023. Among all semi-annual results, Nasdaq-100 gain this year is second only to the year of 1999. With historical 61.44% gain in the second half of 1999, glory times shortly ended. Just two months later in the 1st quarter of 2000 index peaked at 4816.15, for the next 15 plus years. As 38.75% surge in 2023 still far away from the All-the-history record 61.44% in 1999, stocks feel this year like they are, as the great 1960's band "The Animals" said, in the House of the Rising Sun. They won the race, and closed the 1st half of the year with solid gains. Let's take a look and congratulate the winners of the race! ✨ 🥇 The 1st place - Nvidia Corporation, 184.84% YTD return NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia is the clear winner in the AI arms race so far. It's the company that appears best positioned to dominate the burgeoning sector, and more and more investors continue to wake up to the potential of artificial intelligence. Nvidia effectively provides a one-stop shop for what customers need to drive their AI ambitions. They control their entire ecosystem on both hardware and software, similar to Apple, and that puts them years ahead of competitors. 🥈 The 2nd place - Meta Platform Incorporation, 133.66% YTD return NASDAQ:META Meta Platforms stock jumped this year after the tech giant's first-quarter earnings beat Wall Street's expectations. CEO Mark Zuckerberg also touted the tech giant's AI plans, and pledged to keep costs low as the owner of Facebook, WhatsApp and Instragram continues its "year of efficiency." In a post-earnings call, Mark Zuckerberg hailed the company's AI efforts and vowed to keep a lid on spending. The Meta founder and CEO said AI recommendations had led to people spending over 24% more time on Instagram since it launched TikTok rival Reels. 🥉 The 3rd place - Tesla Incorporation, 120.88% YTD return NASDAQ:TSLA Tesla's stock price has been rallying non-stop for months - and Wall Street is starting to ponder whether that breakneck surge might've made the EV stock a little overvalued. Shares have jumped 57% since late April, with investors cheered by CEO Elon Musk signing charging deals with Ford and GM, while Big Tech stocks have also soared more broadly thanks to the rise of AI as an investment theme. The stock just has settled its best two-quarter advance since 2020. But Barclays, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have each questioned that valuation over the past two weeks, with all three banks slashing their Tesla rating from "buy" to "hold". Unprecedented dominance It's historically rare for a handful of stocks from the same sector to make up such a large part of the S&P500 ( SP:SPX ). The last time the five biggest companies by valuation accounted for a quarter of the index's total market cap was indeed the 1960s.
NASDAQ:NDX
by PandorraResearch
2
Jingle Bulls: Analyzing the E-mini S&P 500's Year-End RallyIntroduction The Santa Claus rally, a well-documented phenomenon in the financial markets, particularly in the context of the E-mini S&P 500, presents a captivating study of market behavior during the holiday season. This rally, often characterized by an uptrend in the stock market, offers a confluence of joy and opportunity for traders and investors alike. Our extensive analysis will delve deep into the intricacies of this phenomenon, unraveling its significance in the broader market context. Current Market Overview Over the past two decades, the E-mini S&P 500 has often mirrored the festive spirit with its performance during the Santa Claus rally. A close examination of the rally's seasonality since 2006 paints a picture of resilience and optimism, with only a handful of years bucking the trend. This pattern sets a compelling backdrop for our current year's analysis. Technical Analysis of the Santa Claus Rally The preliminary signs of the Santa Claus rally begin to surface as autumn wanes. The technical indicators in November, particularly the moving averages, RSI, and MACD, provide a glimpse into the market's preparatory phase for the rally. This early analysis is critical in setting expectations and understanding the underlying market sentiment. December's arrival marks the acceleration of the rally. The daily timeframe charts during this month are a testament to the burgeoning bullish sentiment, with technical indicators aligning to confirm the trend's strength. A broader perspective is gained through a weekly timeframe analysis, which smoothens out the daily volatilities and provides clarity on the rally's sustained nature. The monthly timeframe charts link the current rally to the historical market cycles, offering a comprehensive view of the rally's significance in the long-term market trends. Historical Context and Comparative Analysis The Santa Claus rally, particularly in the E-mini S&P 500, is not a recent phenomenon. Historical data dating back over the past two decades reveals a pattern of consistent end-of-year rallies. Analyzing these instances, we find that in 14 out of the last 18 years, the E-mini S&P 500 experienced a significant uptick during this period. Notably, the failed rallies often coincided with broader market stressors or significant global events, offering insights into the rally's sensitivity to external influences. This comparative analysis underscores the rally's reliability but also highlights its exceptions, reminding traders that historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes. Economic Indicators and External Factors The Santa Claus rally in the E-mini S&P 500 doesn't occur in isolation. It is influenced by a myriad of economic indicators and external factors. Key among these is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which can significantly sway market sentiment. Inflation rates, employment data, and GDP growth figures also play a crucial role in shaping the market's direction during this period. On a global scale, geopolitical tensions and international trade relations can impact investor confidence, thereby affecting the rally. This interplay of factors necessitates a vigilant approach to market analysis, recognizing that the Santa Claus rally is as much about economic fundamentals as it is about seasonal trends. Market Sentiment and Trader Behavior The psychology driving the Santa Claus rally is a fascinating aspect of this phenomenon. During this period, a general sense of optimism pervades the market, often leading to increased buying activity. For many traders, this rally represents a culmination of the year's trends and a final push for year-end profits. However, this optimism needs to be tempered with caution. The rally can sometimes lead to overexuberance, resulting in inflated asset prices and increased volatility. Traders should be aware of the potential for a market correction following the rally and should approach trading during this period with a balanced mindset, combining optimism with risk awareness. Trading Strategies and Risk Management Navigating the Santa Claus rally requires tailored trading strategies and effective risk management. Traders might consider positioning themselves to capitalize on the expected uptrend, but with safeguards against unexpected market shifts. Utilizing stop-loss orders and setting clear profit targets can help in managing risks. Diversification across asset classes may also provide a buffer against potential volatility within the E-mini S&P 500. Additionally, traders should stay attuned to market indicators and news, as these can provide early signals of changes in the rally's trajectory. Ultimately, a disciplined approach, balancing the eagerness to exploit the rally with prudent risk management, is key to navigating this period successfully. Conclusion The Santa Claus rally, particularly in the E-mini S&P 500, offers a microcosmic view of the broader market dynamics at play during the year's end. This phenomenon, while rooted in historical patterns and influenced by a blend of economic indicators and market sentiment, requires a nuanced understanding and a strategic approach. As we close the chapter on another year's rally, traders are reminded of the constant interplay between market optimism and the reality of economic fundamentals. The insights gleaned from this analysis not only shed light on the rally itself but also serve as a guiding framework for navigating future market movements with agility and foresight. CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by traddictiv
TPL.N0000Buy zone and Strong Support zone mentioned in above chart. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:TPL.N0000Long
by rukshan2102
LIOC.N0000LIOC Update on 01/11/2023 LIOC trying to break 50 Daily MA line. If LIOC can close few more daily candle 50 DMA line, then LIOC might run till 200 Daily MA level. So short term target will be 150. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:LIOC.N0000Long
by rukshan2102
$SPY Bullish Breakout: Cup & Handle Formation on Weekly Chart The AMEX:SPY is exhibiting a compelling technical formation on its weekly chart. A classic cup and handle pattern has emerged, signalling a potential bullish breakout. The cup and handle pattern observed over the past several months on the AMEX:SPY not only signals a bullish continuation following a period of consolidation but also aligns with the current Stochastic Oscillator readings below 70, emphasizing the potential for upward movement without immediate overextension. This formation, marked by a stabilizing rounding bottom and a subsequent minor pullback, reflects a growing bullish momentum, further reinforced by the Stochastic Oscillator's position, which adds confidence in the face of the ongoing market volatility. Based on this analysis, a tactical trade can be structured as follows: Entry Point: Consider entering the trade at the current level, as the price breaks out of the handle. Stop Loss: To manage risk effectively, set a stop loss at the low of the handle. This placement protects against unforeseen reversals in the pattern. Take Profit: The take profit target is set at the high of the cup. This offers an attractive near 2:1 profit-to-loss ratio, aligning with sound risk-reward principles. Risk Management: As always, traders should align this trade with their individual risk tolerance and portfolio strategy. This analysis presents a bullish case for AMEX:SPY , supported by both pattern recognition and oscillator readings. While the setup is promising, traders are reminded to conduct their analysis and consider market dynamics. Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Trading involves risks, and it is crucial to do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Scatman_Jeff
2
🍂Fall – Fell – Fallen. S&P500 Technical Perspectives over Q3'23The US government is well on its way to going into lockdown and shutting down the economy as policymakers are deadlocked over the national budget for the next fiscal year. While leading stock market strategists are not yet terribly concerned about such perspectives, and entertain hopes that investors have a high probability of "getting away with it" with strong performance, in reality the facts tell a different story. S&P500 SP:SPX is suffering losses, and has already lost about half of its annual growth since the beginning of 2023, and the Nasdaq-100 index NASDAQ:NDX reduced 2023 growth approximately by 30 percent. To avoid a shutdown, Congress needs to pass all 12 spending bills for the next fiscal year by Sept. 30, something it has historically done rather poorly. This could create problems for the market, which could immediately, that is, on the same day, be seriously affected by a US Government shutdown, considering SPX seasonality where September is one of the worst calendar month for investments into S&P500. S&P500 Seasonality Chart Meanwhile historical back test analysis says, in the past 20 government shutdowns, the S&P 500 stayed relatively flat, with the benchmark index losing an average 0.4% the week before a shutdown and gaining .1% by the end of a shutdown, according to a Reuters analysis of CFRA Research data. And in some cases, stocks actually ended the shutdown period higher, with the market gaining a net 10% following the 2018-19 shutdown, according to Renaissance Macro. Shutdowns lasting five days or more have also been known to see a quick market rebound, according to a 2021 Dow Jones analysis. On average, the S&P 500 had already moved into positive territory within one month of the shutdown. Shutdowns themselves are also relatively short. The last government shutdown, which was the longest-ever, lasted for 35 days. Anyway everything could happened. To stay away, or look beyond the market's twists and turns in the weeks before, during, and immediately following a potential shutdown - this is could be very, very individual investment decision. Technical pictures illustrates that weekly SMA(52) - 12 months simple moving average near 4150/4200 pp in SP:SPX or Dec'23 Futures CME_MINI:ESZ2023 (depends what are you looking for) could be quite strong support in any cases.
CME_MINI:ESZ2023
by PandorraResearch
3
🚨♾Meta Platforms(META)♾ will Go Down at least ➖20%🚨🏃‍♂️♾ Meta Platforms(META) ♾ is moving near the 🔴 Resistance zone($332-$315) 🔴. 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence (RD-) between two consecutive peaks . In terms of Elliott wave theory , the Meta Platforms(META) seem to have completed the main wave 3 at the 🔴 Resistance zone($332-$315) 🔴 with the help of the Expanding Ending Diagonal Pattern . 🌊It is interesting to note that in the middle of main wave 3 , the main Bullish Long Island Pattern can be seen, which confirms our wave count. 🔔I expect the Meta Platforms(META) to lose at least ➖20% of its value after breaking the lower line of the Expanding Ending Diagonal and reaching the 🟡 Price Reversal Zones(PRZ) 🟡, Support line(1) and 🔵 200_SMA(Weekly) 🔵. 📚If you want to know about the types of Gaps , you can read the following article.👇 Meta Platforms( METAUSD) Analyze, Daily time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by pejman_zwin
20
LOLC.N0000Death cross is now appearing daily chart. Closely monitor the GAP indicated in chart and fib levels as well. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:LOLC.N0000Long
by rukshan2102
$MATIC Price Action strategy.CRYPTOCAP:MATIC Polygon on the 1-hour timeframe faced rejection near the 50 EMA line (colored red), favoring the bears as the price broke through the previous support and is now approaching the Optimal Trading Zone (OTZ). It is crucial to remain vigilant, set alerts, and be prepared for the price to descend into this zone. As part of my strategy, a confirmation for a double bottom pattern will be considered if the price closes inside or above the OTZ. This confirmation will serve as the trigger for initiating a CRYPTOCAP:MATIC trade.
MLong
by LimitlessRx8
WAPO.N0000Closely monitor mentioned buy zone and strong support zone. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:WAPO.N0000Long
by rukshan2102
Cardano bullish idea.After taking a swing at the elusive $0.40 target last Wednesday (11/15/2023), ADA got a taste of rejection. But, true to form, the next day, Cardano dusted itself off, shrugged off the setback, and made a bloody good comeback. Now, pay attention. Picture Cardano strutting back into the ring, ready to take on a new, formidable resistance level. The bulls are eyeing triumph, and breaking through? Well, that's the key to unlocking a potential surge in Cardano's overall value. I'm eyeing the $0.50 - $0.60 territory.
by LimitlessRx8
1
HAYL.N0000Entry Point: 76-80 Profit Target: 96-100 Stop-Loss: 72 Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:HAYL.N0000Long
by rukshan2102
DOW JONES - Commentary On The Markets In the near future, I plan to refresh my analyses, spanning from gold and interest rates to cryptocurrencies and currencies. However, at this moment, my primary focus is on expressing my thoughts in a straightforward and unfiltered manner. I sense a compelling urge to impart my knowledge on the fundamentals. The wave concept provides a visual avenue for precision in comprehending price action. While price action conveys significant information, it can be challenging to fully grasp its message. My goal is to present you with an exceptionally visual interpretation of price action through the lens of the AriasWave methodology.
TVC:DJI
by AriasWave