Get started

Stockmarketanalysis

Is the S&P 500 DOWNTREND OVER? The price is moving according to my last analysis on July 29th of the S&P 500 Futures. The market is taking a breath from last week, yesterday it closed more or less at that support area of $4100. We still have some important earnings incoming, I stick with my point that we can use the momentum to get to $4200 or even higher. However, in order to break this DOWNTREND, we need to get above $4500 and maintain. I'm not going to spend time talking about breaking the resistance of $4500 , as I see it extremely unlikely to happen. During the next few days, the market can decline till $3950 support , in order to get some volume and make new higher highs around $4200 . The economic environment is bearish for the stock market, unless the FED decides to decrease interest rates and start printing again, avoiding fighting inflation, destroying the currency as a result. The scenario that I think is going to happen is that we will continue the downtrend that started in the beginning of the year 2022. From my humble opinion, this was just one more rally in a bear market, maybe a bull trap that can last a few weeks more. I see the market between a range of $2800-$3500 till the end of the year, unless something big happens and reverses the downtrend. Honestly, I think they are just trying to keep the market up the longer they can, in order to sell their balance sheet at higher prices, starting from September. This thing can reverse in every moment, or it could continue to be bullish the next trading sessions. Better wait to trade to the downside till some clear reversal appears . Good luck with your investments. Earnings Releases to keep an eye on: - Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Occidental (OXY), BP (BP) - AMD (AMD) - Starbucks (SBUX) - Caterpillar (CAT) - PayPal (PYPL) - Gilead (GILD) - Airbnb (ABNB) - Marriott (MAR) - Uber (UBER) - Electronic Arts (EA) - Waste Connections (WCN) - Illinois Tool Works (ITW) - Cummins (CMI) - IDEXX (IDXX)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by GenadiYankov
8
$BABA Is Alibaba Ready To Be Treasured In Our Portfolios?Traders, Speaking to my of my investor friend in the US around a year ago, I predicted alibaba to fall below 100 and that's when we could get a chance to buy back again. Alibaba $BABA Has been consolidating at the current levels for few months under 100 dollars. Now as it has created a very good pattern inside the bollinger band, this can become a speculative buy in our portfolio again. The risk is limited i.e. stop loss will be below last lowest low and the target much higher giving us very good Reward to Risk.
NYSE:BABALong
by vikinsa
1
Possible next move in SPXHi everyone. Today I'm gonna talk about SPX. In this moments the price have 2 posibilitties: Option A: We have a double bottom pattern and the price will go to the level of pattern and then we need to wait a intentional canddle who confirms the change pattern. In this point it's good enter to long (more risk) Option B: The price will go to te resistance and then will fall to the support (here we can enter with a short). In the support we need to wait if the price will go down or bounce to the resistance again (good opportunity to enter long) Thanks for read this and leave me a comments or questions and if you like this analysis, follow me. See you soon !
SP:SPX
by huraz
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% SPX, 52% Cash. * NANCY PELOSI WATCH. S&P Global released their final July US Manufacturing PMI estimate this morning and it came in at 52.2, slightly lower compared to both June's PMI and the consensus estimate of 52.3; this is the lowest it has been since July 2020. The Atlanta Fed released their second GDPNow Q3 estimate today and it came in at +1.3%, down from the initial estimate of +2.1% on 07/29/22. According to Reuters, CNN and 'Taiwanese media', Nancy Pelosi is scheduled to visit Taiwan tomorrow against the wishes of the PRC; though military countermeasures have been promised but are not expected, if this does happen it would surely shake up markets due to the uncertainty regarding how mainland China will respond. Key dates remaining this week: Nancy Pelosi potentially visiting Taiwan tomorrow night (08/02) and speaking to lawmakers and human rights groups on Wednesday (08/03); St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks @ 645pm EST (08/02); Cleveland Fed Loretta Mester speaks 12pm EST (08/03); July BLS Employment Situation @ 830am EST (08/04).* Price is currently facing some selling pressure at ~$4120 as it aims to retest $4175 resistance. Volume is Moderate and on track to favor buyers for a fourth consecutive session if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish just below the 50 MA at $3900. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 65 after forming a peak at 66 (just below 68.42 resistance); Hidden Bearish Divergence between Price and RSI can be seen from 06/02/22, this is significant due to the potential local Double Top formation. Stochastic remains bullish but is trending down at 98.5 after testing max top for the first time in ten sessions; if it breaks below 93.5 it would be a bearish crossover. MACD remains bullish for the 38th consecutive session and is currently trending up at 49.50 as it approaches 55 minor resistance with no signs of peak formation. ADX is currently trending up at 19 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to push higher then it will likely formally retest $4175 resistance where it may see a bit of selling pressure. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/16/22 as support at ~$4k . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4175.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Heading for Recession or going higher...analysis and key levelsThere has been a lot of talk of the US heading into recession, and while the Fed and Politicians deny it, most feel that we are already 'in' a recession. The Fed will of course do and say all they can to keep the stock markets orderly and supported while trying their best to bring down inflation. Key now is to watch inflationary and economic data. In the video I look at the major stock markets in the US , Europe and Asian...and look at the key levels that I am watching for some action. Technically the Indexes are still in a downtrend but we have seen some buyers go risk on into the end of the month....so the question is will this continue??!!
COMEX:HG1!
by TradeTheStructure
Tesla showing signs of a possible bullish breakout TSLA has been consolidating in a very slightly ascending wedge (possibly triangle) after a decent run up & is now currently looking at breaking out & heading for another rally towards a new high, possibly towards that 1k mark before losing steam Watch for a successful close above the descending resistance for confirmation of successful breakout! I've added 2 major areas of resistance to be aware of to consider profit taking Will update as more data is available *Symbol tags below* Will be checking the crypto pairs for Tesla soon too ( BTC / USD / USDT / DOGE ) for further breakout signs NASDAQ:TSLA CAPITALCOM:TSLA FTX:TSLAUSD BITTREX:TSLAUSD BITTREX:TSLABTC FTX:TSLABTC BITTREX:TSLAUSDT FTX:TSLADOGE COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BINANCE:DOGEUSDT
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by RandomOracle
8
Meta Platforms (Road Map)!!!🗺️Today, I want to analyze the Meta Platforms. What are Meta Platforms ❓ Meta Platforms, Inc., doing business as Meta and formerly named Facebook, Inc., and TheFacebook, Inc., is an American multinational technology conglomerate based in Menlo Park, California. The company owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, among other products and services. Meta Platforms are close to the end of main wave A. I expect Meta Platforms to grow up around the support zone (for the short term). Meta Platforms Analyze Daily Timeframe (Log Scale /Heikin Ashi)⏰ 🟢Support zone🟢: 149$ until 137$ Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
NASDAQ:META
by pejman_zwin
2
Fed rates and S&P 500 analysis: A short window to rebound?Following the Federal Reserve meeting, which delivered a back-to-back 75-basis-point rate hike to 2.25-2.5% ( USINTR ), S&P 500 index broke above 4,000 points, marking a 2.6% daily gain, as market expectations pointed to a halt in rate hikes at the end of the year, and a rate cut in the first half of next year. A window for a "bear market rally" in the S&P 500 could be the case between now and the next September meeting if upcoming economic data indicate a peak in inflation and a weakening labour market. This would bolster the Federal Reserve's soft-landing goal and keep short-term interest rates in check. First of all, the market is repricing the fear of an impending recession, as the earnings season continues to produce positive results. Second, given the recent negative correlation between short-term rates and the S&P 500 index, a stabilization or even a decline in short-term 2-year Treasury yields would provide further oxygen to the stock-market rebound. Momentum indicator (14-day RSI) has been hovering above 50 for the past week and is now pointing northward, indicating that bulls are gaining the upper hand in the short term. 4,160 is a short-term technical resistance at the May/June peaks and March 2022 support. A break above this level would pave the way for a 4,300 target (4 May high). A rise to 4,500 (21 April high) seems to be more challenging at this stage. The alternative scenario, in which inflation data remains higher than expected and Fed representatives remain extremely hawkish, might portray a pullback in the 3,800-3,720 region. However, to revise the S&P 500 ’s year-to-date low ( 3,639 ), it is appropriate to witness a new "rate-shock", with short-term Treasury yields spiking above 3.4-3.5% in response to a Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening bias.
SP:SPX
by Capitalcom
1
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. * BULL TRAP WATCH . META missed on both earnings and revenue estimates in addition to seeing their first drop in revenue growth; they predict that this trend will continue in Q3 and perhaps the rest of the year. Fed announced a 75bps hike today and Chairman JPow iterated that we aren't in a recession because the labor market continues to be resilient (stagflation), assuring investors that a soft landing is still not out of reach. Interestingly, he also mentioned that "another unusually large rate hike could be appropriate at the next meeting", "path to a soft landing is narrowing", "likely full effects of rate hikes have not been felt yet", and that inflation could get worse going into year end. Somehow, investors are rejoicing as if a bottom is in; but if you look at what happened when the last FOMC statement was released, SPX rallied 2% from $3762 to $3841 to close 06/15 and then fell 5% from $3841 to $3642 to start the next session (06/16). The TA this time around looks a bit different but it's something to be mindful of going in to tomorrow. Key dates remaining this week: 1st Q2 GDP estimate at 830am EST tomorrow (07/28), AAPL and AMZN earnings after-hours tomorrow (07/28), PCE Index report at 830am EST (07/29) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (07/29). If the first GDP estimate comes in at -1.2% (current GDPNow estimate) or less, it will likely add bullishness to hopes of a 'mild recession' or no 'recession' at all. If PCE numbers (the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation) show that they are declining somehow, the Fed will likely interpret that as inflation starting to wind down and will look to raise FFR by 50bps in September (which money markets would likely perceive as bullish). It's still too premature to call for a bottom but if Price is able to close above $3938 for the rest of the week, there is a good chance that it tests the upper trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$4300 riding into September.* Price is currently breaking out above $3938 minor resistance after bouncing from a very critical support juncture in response to the FOMC statement today. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has been alternating between buyer and seller dominance over the past four sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3809, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending up at 60 (3-month high) with no signs of peak formation after bouncing from 53 support, the next resistance is at 68. Stochastic bounced off 76 support and is currently trending up at 80, if it can break above 81 it would be a bullish crossover. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 20 after breaking above 10.73 support, the next resistance is at 33. ADX is completing a trough and is currently trending up slightly at 16 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to close above $3938 for one more session then the next likely target is a retest of $4175 resistance . However, if Price breaks back down here it will likely retest $3938 minor support before potentially heading lower. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3915 .
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
TSLA Technical Analysis July 26-29Today on TSLA we bounced at the 9EMA at 768.69. TSLA started trading above the 9EMA on July 14. My ZOOMOUT chart is on the 4h candles, ZOOM chart is on the 1h. Based on support and resistance, this is a rough estimate of where the trend will follow with four possible outcomes for the rest of the week. Bullish, MID/Flat, and Bearish estimates. I'm leaning towards a bullish stance for tomorrow. There were market sell offs after the last two FOMC meetings where interest rates were hiked, so be cautious of the possible bull trap. Watch the VIX, watch volume and make sure you have your entries and exits planned. Good luck.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by skyleronwallstreet
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% SPX, 52% Cash. * SHORT SQUEEZE WATCH . Sentiment has switched to bearish in light of the incoming economic data this week (FFR rate hike announcement, first Q2 GDP estimate, PCE inflation index) as well as a big week of 'recession-fear inducing' earnings: Walmart missed by 12% on earnings and saying earnings should fall by 11%-13% this year due to less consumer demand; Alphabet missed on both EPS and Revenue but beat on Ad Revenue (unlike SNAP, TWTR and MSFT) which has it rallying after-hours; Microsoft also missed on both EPS and Revenue, but more importantly it missed on Personal Computing and Intelligent Cloud (Azure) revenue estimates which has Microsoft currently down 3% after hours. One of the few variables that are keeping the NBER from declaring the economy to be in a recession is a strong consumer (referring to retail sales, real PCE, personal income and credit quality). Though retail sales increased in June, if real PCE comes in lower on 07/29 then retail sales are due to fall as people shift to savings-and-necessities mode to mitigate inflation and recession effects. Real PCE appears to have formed a peak in April at $13950b, the May reading (current) was $13895b and the June reading is scheduled for release on 07/29; judging by earnings and what people historically do in recessions (consume less), it's sensible to infer that real PCE will likely come in lower on 07/29. Real personal income excluding transfers continues to trend higher as of May with a new ATH of $14501b; considering that the 11 year bull market in stock markets and 11 year decline in unemployment was largely due to historically low interest rates and QE, it would be reasonable to expect a downward correction in personal income (and hiring) that now that all the 'excess' capital available to businesses is significantly less. Although Consumer Credit increased by 5.9% in May compared to 9.7% in April, credit outstanding continues to go up with inflation; this is showing signs of increasing financial burdens being experienced by the consumer. Walmart, Alphabet and Microsoft all missed on their earnings but Alphabet benefited from being the only one of SNAP, TWTR and MSFT to beat on Advertising Revenue estimates. Key dates this week: FOMC Statement 2pm (EST) 07/27, META earnings after-hours 07/27, First Q2 GDP estimate 830am (EST) 07/28, AMZN & AAPL earnings after-hours 07/28, PCE index inflation and Real PCE excluding transfers at 830am (EST) 07/29.* Price is currently testing a critical support juncture where the 50 MA + lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 + $3938 minor support all converge; due to the importance of this support level it's prudent to not be too bearish until support is officially lost. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers in the last few sessions, indicative of a critical juncture. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3796, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 52 with no signs of trough formation as it tests 52.68 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 76 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD remains bullish and is currently forming a soft peak at 10.73 minor resistance, this is happening as the Signal line turns -11.45 to support. ADX continues to trend down and is currently at 15 with no signs of trough formation as Price continues its attempt to push higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here at this trifecta of support (50 MA + lower trendline of descending channel from August 2021 + $3938 minor support) then it will likely retest $4175 resistance . However, if Price breaks down below here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at ~$3880 before potentially heading lower to retest $3707 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Russell 2000: historical drawdowns point to more downside riskThe Russell 2000 's drawdown from its peak has been important (-26%), but not as severe as those seen during the dot-com bubble in 2002, the 2008 financial crisis, and Covid-19 at the start of 2020, when the US small-cap index plummeted by more than 40%. To reverse the current downtrend of the Russell 2000 , the underlying causes must also be reversed, which are primarily rising inflation and the need to raise interest rates. US ECONOMY: MACRO OVERVIEW Inflation is now widespread and is not solely due to increases in energy prices, such as oil and natural gas . The United States still has a very tight labour market that requires a rebalancing of supply and demand, to avoid further wage pressures. There are currently nearly two job openings for every unemployed American ( FRED:JTSJOL / FRED:UNEMPLOY ) and the labor-force participation rate has not recovered to pre-Covid levels. The result is a strong pressure on salary growth , which is currently at 11% year-on-year. The combination of higher energy prices and wage pressures raises labour input costs for US firms. Those who are unable to pass on higher costs to their customers will see their profit margins dwindle dangerously. In addition, since the Fed is firmly committed to raising interest rates , higher borrowing costs represent an additional drag on the growth outlook of small-cap firms. RUSSELL 2000 index: outlook The market believes that a recession will cause the Federal Reserve to slow its rate hikes or even reverse its policy stance. However, the Fed's focus remains solely on inflation, as the labour market remains close to full employment. To rebalance the labour market, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates aggressively. The short/medium term outlook on the Russell 2000 index remains bearish until the Fed signals a change, which is unlikely unless there is a major recession. A 40% drop from the peak would be a good entry point for opportunistic buyers to step in, indicating a wide bullish positioning clean-up. Such a level of drawdown corresponds to a Russell 2000 index level of 1,450.
TVC:RUT
by Capitalcom
1
SPY - GDP data, Recession Looming? 💀Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. This week is the final week of trading for July and perhaps the most important week of the summer — with the Fed meeting, GDP data and earnings from almost a third of the S&P 500 on deck. Many investors, entrepreneurs and speculators (including myself) are worried about the potential of an economic recession and are hoping this week’s news storm will help direct their expectations and provide some clarity. According to Sam Stovall, the chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, most investors believe that Thursday’s GDP report will show a second quarter of decline, which is the unofficial signal of recession. It is his opinion that the Fed will most likely announce a 75-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday . Consumer index shows that consumers are extremely pessimistic, but they're spending more than they did last year. The number of jobs is recovering, but economic output is slowing sharply. This is causing a debate among policymakers and investors about whether the United States is close to, or already in, a recession — and if it isn't, whether persistent anxiety about one could be enough to make it a reality, as nervous businesses and consumers start to pull back. Could people "anticipate" the economy into a recession? US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said earlier in July that she does not believe a recession is on the cards. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that we are definitely not in a recession but "...we're in a period of transition in which growth is slowing." Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers (during an interview with CNN) espoused a different view — focused not on what the data is currently showing, but on what's likely to happen next . He stated that he believes a recession is most likely, stating : "When we've been in this kind of situation before, recession has essentially always followed." His concerns lies with the Federal Reserve. The central bank is rapidly tightening interest rates to throttle inflation, but a sharp pullback in economic activity as it boosts borrowing costs . While the Fed is hopeful it can engineer a "soft landing," where inflation comes down without a recession, Summers said he is skeptical. He mentioned that when inflation has been high and unemployment has been low, soft landings represent a kind of hopium. The final word: One definition of a recession is when the economy experiences two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product . In the first three months of the year, output declined at an annual rate of 1.6%. That raises the stakes for Thursday's first look at GDP data for the second quarter. The recession call that economists and policymakers watch for, however, comes from the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee. They define a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months." In a recent blog post, the White House said that even though some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle. So don't expect the NBER to settle the back-and-forth debate on recession any time soon. It waited until June 2020 to announce that the coronavirus-induced recession started the previous February — and that was faster than usual. That means the recession debate is likely to persist for many months, no matter what's revealed later this week. If you're looking for an easy to understand guide on Wyckoff Method and phases, check out this Bitcoin idea: If you're looking for more info on Stop Hunting and algorithm trading, check out this idea on Cardano: To know the macro phase is to have power - this will eliminate fear and greed, and cancel out the noise you hear from news and paid "influencers". _________________ 👀Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 📉 Hit like & Follow 🔔 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
AMEX:SPYShort
by CryptoCheck-
35
COAL INDIA , BUY signal hey guys , COAL INDIA stock is showing BULLISH SIGNS this stock was moving in a pattern called TRIANGLE PATTERN 📐 , this stock has tried many times to break that TRIANGLE PATTERN and now the time has come . The stock has crossed it's resistance and it has rested also And now we can see A GREAT BIG GREEN CANDLE present by this stock Also , the 20 day ema is above the 50 day ema this shows that this stock is in a uptrend. I have marked the RR RATIO , TARGET AND SL for y'all try to trade according to that ratio or you can adjust it according to you . BUT FIRST CONSIDER THE GLOBAL MARKET SITUATIONS 1. INFLATION 2. WAR 3. RISING BANK RATES YOU CAN INVEST KN THAT STOCK BECAUSE PROFITS ARE INCREASING AND THE REO RATIO IS 40% THEREFORE, TRY TO BUY THAT STOCK 😀😀
NSE:COALINDIALong
by TRADERS_AREA
COFORGE , starting UPTREND after retesting hey guys , COFORGE stock is showing signs of UPTREND, this stock was moving in a fixed downtrend , 2-3 weeks before this stock has crossed it's RESISTANCE and broke the DOWNTREND AREA . After breaking that area , the stock has retested But instead of going into a straight uptrend , this stock started to follow a pattern called TRIANGLE PATTERN and now this stock has CROSSED the RESISTANCE of that TRIANGLE PATTERN , and a big green candle is presented by this stock . therefore guys , i suggest you that try to grap this stock and earn high returns . ( but it is not sure that you will achieve your target if stop loss is hit , pls cut ur position) i have marked the RR RATIO , TARGET AND STOP LOSS BUT FIRST CONSIDER THE GLOBAL MARKET SITUATIONS 1. INFLATION 2. WAR 3. RISING BANK RATES AFTER CONSIDERING THESE SITUATIONS, YOU CAN BUY THIS STOCK 😀😀
NSE:COFORGELong
by TRADERS_AREA
Bullish and bearish scenarios for gold.Hello all. Looking at XAUUSD we can see that our previous bearish analysis with 18% drop came to fruition, pushing the price of the yellow metal towards the 200 week EMA at around $1700. Link for that trade is posted below. The 200 week EMA provided a strong support and we can anticipate a bounce towards the $1770 price mark which is the closes resistance and the 23.6% fib level. Another important level to keep an eye on is the fib golden pocket (61.8%-65%) with a price sitting at around $1930. If this bullish scenario plays out gold will recover 12%. This is possible because historically the $1770 price level has provided major support for gold, and also the weekly rsi is in the overbought territory. If gold falls below $1770, I believe it is possible that the price of gold can go as low as $1200 per oz. This price also corresponds with the 200 Week EMA, and historically the strongest and lowest support zone for gold. If this bearish scenario plays out, gold will see another 30% drop. Thanks for reading, and stay tuned. Enjoy.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by EdgarTigranyan
NasdaqI think we are in an ending diagonal within the primary 4th wave position. Inside of the larger intermediate ABC. LTF daily chart looks like we have lost the lower TL of the ending diagonal in what should become an overthrow on the weekly TF. Currently working on the Z wave which is the strongest wave of the WXYXZ pattern which usually sends the price up or down depending on whether or not the WXYXZ pattern is bullish or bearish. After wave Z a strong reversal hits. This is what my chart implies.
TVC:NDQLong
by Big_Mike716