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You down with ABC? Yeah, you know me!OK, this is a possibility to be aware of. We still could come down to 3700 or lower tomorrow, but if they rally from anywhere around here (or there), there is a chance we get a sudden C wave up for a few weeks. Sentiment surveys on CNBC have never been more bearish, so there's that - but regardless, the pattern looks correct as of now. So there it is - it may not work out, but I'm putting it up as a distinct possibility. I'm not long, but did hedge this morning. I'll shed shorts if we start getting over 3800 again. If true, C should get to around 4100 resistance area.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by the_sunship
3
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BullishDXY Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% DXY, 25% Cash. *Demand for USD continues as global recessionary fears amplify and tighter monetary policy pushes investors to short term Treasuries (Yield Curve inversion). The Euro is maintaining parity with the USD for the third consecutive day as Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi submitted an offer to resign today . Interestingly, as DXY continues pushing higher to reach levels last seen in 2002 (taking liquidity from Cryptos, Equities and Commodities), markets are currently reacting favorably to Fed Governor Christopher Waller's remarks today about how the markets are "getting a bit ahead of themselves" regarding inflation and that the job market is healthy enough to continue economic expansion. Waller also mentioned that though 75bps is all but guaranteed, he is waiting on June retail sales data ( scheduled for release tomorrow 07/14/2022 at 830am EST ) and housing starts/building permit data ( scheduled for release 07/19/22 at 830am EST ) to determine if demand is still so high that it warrants a full 100bps or more rate hike on 07/27/22. DXY has only traded above $108 in three other periods: 1967-1973 (two recessions 69-70 and 73-75, Nixon "nixed" the Bretton Woods Agreement and Gold Standard in attempt to stimulate the economy and ring in inflation, the third and fourth Arab/Israeli wars, 1973 oil crisis and stock market crash); 1981-1986 (one recession 81-82 after short rate-hike induced recession in 1980, Cold War fears pushed investors to DXY as Russia tested nuclear weapons in Kazakhstan, Iranian Revolution prompted 1979 energy crisis, Fed tightened monetary policy to bring down inflation, stock market only crashed 81-82 and rallied from 83-87); and the only period where CPI was relatively low (below 3.67%) and DXY was above 108 was 2000-2002 (short recession in 2001, Y2K, Dot-Com bubble popped, 9/11). That said, history shows that financial markets mostly tumble and the economy enters a recession as DXY rallies above 108; using this pattern one can surmise that if DXY continues to rip higher, markets may go lower.* Price is currently trending up at $108.63 as it technically tests $108 resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $106.20, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 76 after bouncing at 73, the next resistance is at 82. Stochastic is currently in the process of crossing over bearish as it trends sideways at 97 in the 'bullish autobahn zone'. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 1.25 as it tests 1.24 resistance with no signs of peak formation; the next support is at 0.64 and resistance at 1.92. ADX is currently trending up at 42 with no signs of peak formation as Price continues to push higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to defend support at $108 then the next likely target is a retest of $115 resistance for the first time since February 2002. However, if Price is rejected here at $108 and breaks down, the next likely target is a retest of the 50 MA at around $103 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $108.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
MRF has shown SIGNS of UPTREND hey guys , all of the traders were waiting from a long time to find a good swing trade for the stock - MRF now the time has came , and MRF has crossed it's resistance , From a LONG time , MRF was facing resistance, from the upper trendline ( WHICH I HAVE DRAWN ) and now this stock has crossed it's resistance . and taken support therefore, from my opinion , you can buy this stock and earn high returns , i have marked the TARGET AND STOP LOSS for y'all, YOU ALL CAN ZOOM IN , AND THEN YOU CAN SEE THAT THIS STOCK HAS MADE A BEAUTIFUL GREEN CANDLE WHICH MOTIVATE US TO BUY THIS STOCK, BUT PLS GUYS , CONSIDER THE GLOBAL MARKET SITUATIONS 1. INFLATION 2. WAR 3. RISING BANK RATES AFTER CONSIDERING THESE SITUATIONS YOU CAN BET ON THIS STOCK 😀😀
NSE:MRFLong
by TRADERS_AREA
2
Stock market faces big inflation test.As inflation has risen over the past year to become the top bugbear for markets, U.S. stocks and Treasury yields have seen large moves on days when CPI data have been released. The S&P 500 index closed nearly 2% lower on June 10 and May 11 after data from May and April were released, respectively. And as U.S. stocks continue to climb off of last month’s lows, investors are understandably nervous about the possibility that Wednesday’s number could delay the latest bear-market rally. So in the spirit of offering some guidance, Tom Essaye, an experienced trader and author of the Sevens Report, has shared a quick guide for how stocks might react to Wednesday’s June CPI data, which will be released at 8:30 Eastern Time.
UShort
by gorgevorgian
PANS: Rebound on Golden Ratio, Prepare for Bull Run/False Break?Hello Fellow Stock Investor/Trader, Here's a Technical outlook of PANS Stock! Chart Perspective PANS has rebounded around the golden ratio of the Fibonacci retracement area and broken out of the falling wedge pattern. The Stochastic created a golden cross, signifying a potential upside movement to the target area. All the explanations are presented on the chart The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area. "Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put Long or Short Position in PANS Stock".
IDX:PANSLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
(RFP) will be acquired by a unit of Paper Excellence Group Resolute Forest Products (RFP) will be acquired by a unit of Paper Excellence Group in a roughly $2.7 billion deal that will see the Canadian forest products company added to the privately held firm's stable of pulp-and-paper assets in North America."With this transaction, Resolute will accelerate its growth as it gains access to more tools, capital and opportunities to pursue our ambitions with the combined resources of the Paper Excellence Group," Resolute Forest Chief Executive Remi Lalonde said in a statement.
RLong
by Miguelpilot
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPX Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 69% SPX, 31% Cash. * The US Jobs Report came out this morning and 372,000 jobs were added in June which essentially recovers almost all of the jobs lost due to the pandemic (~23m) , the unemployment rate remained at 3.6% for the fourth month in a row. A technical recession is defined by the combination of declining economic growth and employment ; so according to the textbook we are not yet in one because unemployment is still low and credit is still relatively healthy(?). How reliable the employment data is and how effective the models used to analyze them are arguable but as it stands now, the growing number of layoffs hasn't hit the job market yet. Even though they are both connected, markets seem to have shifted their focus from inflation to Q2 corporate earnings as a means of determining how much of an economic slowdown we are to expect (which would determine if we end 2022 with a federal funds rate above 3.5% - it is currently at 1.58%). Russia continues to avoid Western sanctions and boost their Ruble by fortifying trade routes with Brazil, China, India and South Africa (amongst other countries); Donetsk and Severodonetsk are the last two major Ukrainian strongholds defending against a total annexation of the Donbas region (Southeastern oblasts) - and Russia likely won't stop there; and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated today at the G20 Summit (before storming out) that increased sanctions are viewed as declarations of economic war.* Price is currently pushing higher at ~$3900 as it approaches the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance. Volume remains Moderate and is currently on track to favor buyers for a fifth consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3714, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 52 as it tests 52.68 resistance with a soft peak beginning to form. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 98 as it approaches a test of max top where it can potentially coast in the "bullish autobahn zone" for some time. MACD remains bullish and is currently testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at -44 resistance, this is a critical resistance area. ADX continues trending down at 20 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment; if ADX bounces as Price continues higher, this would be bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely face a bit more resistance at the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially heading lower to test $3508 support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3815.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
#SPX - Market Update 7-7-22SPX Broke through the 3870 at open for a nice move and continued to melt up into our 3900 Target by close. This is a bigger momentum level here and top of the double bottom move off 3741. You have to keep in mind the market ran over 160 points now in the last three days and coming into weeks close. If 3900 doesn't hold early on we can see a quicker pullback to 3870. I would keep trades quicker for now until we get a better tell on direction. We have Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment numbers tomorrow morning which will be a catalyst. With a bad reaction 3838 is possible. In different types of markets, you have to adjust goals based on current market conditions In an easy market you can maximize gains - In a hard market you can protect capital - 3. Choppy market you can take quicker wins, build up your account. Learn to change the way you think and you'll be able to trade thru any market Emotions can be a liability to a trading account. Stay calm and remain objective on each trade otherwise you may fail to see consistency..
SP:SPX
by MoneyFlow_Options_Community
The Dollar Hasn't Done this in 20 years! What does this mean?Hey guys, It's been a couple of weeks since I put out an update. I am seeing some interesting indicators in the market as I come back to studying these charts. Today we'll take a close look at the dollar, the vix, and we'll also jump to Bitcoin, and talk about unemployment and OIL prices. These are all valid indicators of future price action in the market and if I am reading the charts right, we should see some relief here over the next few weeks. - Stew
TVC:DXY
by stewdamus
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 63% SPX, 37% Cash. * FOMC minutes were released at 2pm (EST) today and the main takeaways were: the Fed is committed to price stability and maximum employment and will take on a even more restrictive stance if inflation isn't tamed; they are most likely going to raise 75bps unless CPI comes in lower than expected or Russia/Ukraine situation improves, in this case they may raise 50; and that housing, job and credit markets are healthy as of May and the Fed thinks GDP will bounce back in Q2 - very curious to see how declining new home sales, growing gas and food prices, more layoffs and higher credit card usage will reflect on this perspective come July 27th. The current GDPnow estimate for Q2 GDP is -2.1% , and the next estimate is due tomorrow at 830am (EST). Gold + Oil + VIX + Euro are down and Equities + Treasuries + Cryptos + USD are up, markets seem to be pricing in a recession at this point. I guess it's only a real recession if the Fed says it is though.* Price is currently trending up at $3845 and forming a Bear Flag after bouncing from $3780; the next resistance is the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance and the next support (minor) is at $3707. Volume remains Moderate and has favored buyers for the past three sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3706, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 46, the next resistance is at 53 and support at 38. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 84 as it attempts to flip 76 resistance to support on its way to testing to max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -56 as it slowly approaches -44 resistance, the next support (minor) is at -76. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 22 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3707 minor support before potentially heading lower to test $3508 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3780.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy