NDX v SPX. Nerd America comes closer to the Nerd sunsetThe main graph represents NDX v SPX ratio.
Like 25 years ago, new super duper brave generation of Nerd America comes closer to the next one Nerd sunset.
Stockmarketcrash
"Hindenburg's Omen" to predict a stock market crash."Hindenburg's Omen" to predict a stock market crash.
"Hindenburg's Omen" is a technical indicator in financial analysis designed to predict a potential significant decline or a stock market crash.
Here are the main things to remember about this indicator:
Definition and origin
Introduced by Jim Miekka in the 1990s.
Named after the Hindenburg airship disaster in 1937, symbolizing an unexpected disaster.
How it works
- Hindenburg's Omen is triggered when several conditions are met simultaneously on a stock market:
- A high number of stocks reaching both new highs and lows over 52 weeks (usually more than 2.2% of stocks).
- The number of new highs must not exceed twice the number of new lows.
- The stock index must be in an upward trend (positive 50-day or 10-week moving average).
-The McClellan Oscillator (sentiment indicator) should be negative.
Interpretation
-When these conditions are met, the Omen suggests underlying market instability and an increased risk of a significant decline.
-The signal remains active for 30 trading days.
Reliability
-The indicator has correctly signaled some historical crashes, such as the one in 1987.
-However, its reliability is questionable as it also produces many false signals.
Usage
-Generally used in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis to confirm sell signals.
Traders can use it to adjust their positions or as an alert for increased market monitoring.
It is important to note that, like any technical indicator, the Hindenburg Omen is not infallible and should be used with caution, in conjunction with other analytical tools.
In the following photos, a harmonic "BLACK SWAN" pattern was detected on the DOW JONES, announcing a stock market crash or a strong correction!
Nifty Gift nifty buy signalRisk taking trader can buy if this starts buy tomorrow we can expect a gap up on nifty
Happy trading 🥰
Nikkei 225 Suffers Worst Decline Since 1987 Amid U.S. Economic CThe Nikkei 225 index in Japan plunged by 12.4%, marking its worst day since the 1987 "Black Monday" crash. The index closed at 31,458.42, shedding 4,451.28 points. The sell-off was triggered by concerns about the U.S. economy and followed a 5.8% drop on Friday. Major companies like Toyota, Honda, and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group saw significant declines. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and a stronger yen have further pressured the market. Investors now focus on upcoming trade data from China and Taiwan, and central bank decisions from Australia and India.
AMD - Correction And LongsHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of AMD.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
After the massive triangle breakout on AMD in 2016, we saw a rally of more than +7.000% towards the upside. After the recent bear market in December of 2021, where AMD perfectly retested previous structure, we saw another rally of +250%. I am now waiting for a retest of the triangle breakout level mentioned in the analysis and then I will look for even more long setups.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
NIFTY 50 120 MINS CHARTThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support.....
Tradelikemee Academy
Sanjay K G
S&P 500 2024-2025 OutlookSP:SPX is not going to crash in the Q1 or Q2 2024. I have measured that we will continue the rally atleast until the resistance zone around 5200-5800.
I used fibonacci retracement to determine the rally target and the pullback target. If we topped at 5200-5800, we will most likely drop to the support area around 3500-3200. I highlighted some area in the RSI graph, if we reached that area we most likely will have a pullback. Another case is if we still continue the rally up until 7000-8000, an economic bubble perhaps, the crash would be more deadly.
Overall i think 2024 will be good for people to make money and prepare for a major crash. Stocks & crypto will be making new all time highs, the first two quartals should be fine for us. Fourth quartal will be the most decisive because of US election, could turn very good or very bad. My advice is to also follow all the latest news about geopolitical tension, we might have a world war 3 or at least a major war that will play a very big factor on the economy in general.
Prepare.
Will stock market crash in 2024?Hello everyone i want share my idea bout NAS100 price action at higher timeframe, here i will tell some reasons why stock market will stop moving up and change it will change trend.
First we had at stock market pretty good bullish movement in 2023. If we look economy of America they are in trouble, last few months of 2023 we had pretty bearish movement at US20 bond and DXY (Dollar index) but this year Dollar started positive trend with positive fundamentally news, Interest rates are high and it need correction, everyone in 2024 waiting for interest rate cuts but we don't have yet any indicative new which will approve rate cuts.
In last of autumn i published my idea about US20 bond and dollar index where i was bearish ( I will share that idea in this post) i was thinking bearish trend for high interest rates, after autumn us economy and dollar start fall until 2024 January.
If this price movement of dollar will continue that trend and the fundamentally will help then we will get new rates which will be lower. if we look NAS100 with technical analysis we have new all time high and big weekly divergence, if that divergence will work we will get lower rates and new opportunity for invest in stock market.
In second post i will talk my idea about stock SunPower corporation, which price will follow lower rate and it is perfect investment if rates will cut.
SPX S&P 500 Fell 10% After the Last U.S. Credit Downgrade !!!Fitch Ratings made a significant move by downgrading the US debt rating on Tuesday, shifting it from the highest AAA rating to AA+. The downgrade was attributed to a "steady deterioration in standards of governance." This decision followed intense negotiations among lawmakers to reach a debt ceiling deal, which posed a risk of the nation's first default.
The S&P 500 experienced a notable decline of 10% within three months after the previous U.S. credit downgrade. The downgrade occurred on August 5, 2011, by Standard & Poor's, one of the major credit rating firms, following another intense debt ceiling battle. The day after the S&P downgrade, the S&P 500 suffered a nearly 7% drop, dubbed "Black Monday." Subsequently, the benchmark index declined by 5.7% that month and an additional 7.2% in September.
Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, emphasized that the 12-year-old news of S&P being the first to downgrade was significant, allowing investors to adjust their perceptions of the world's most important bond market, which was no longer considered pure AAA. Nonetheless, Fitch's recent decision to downgrade remains impactful.
In the current scenario, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, the highest since November 2022.
As for my price target for this year, it remains at $4900, as illustrated in the chart provided below:
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SPY: is the bearish case too obvious?The weekly close today was straight up horrendous. We've got a channel break, retest and fail and confirmed this week. We've got a bearish engulfing candle. We've got bad news from NVDA, TSLA, Banks, FED etc. So, shorting right here is kind of a no brainer; right?
Well, let's take a deeper look. On RSI, everytime there is a double touch on the lower end of bollinger bands, albeit during the last macro downtrend, there was a significant bounce. And both times there was a lower low. This time market is on a macro uptrend (yeah still it is, even though it is in an intermediate downtrend), and this week is still a higher low. The total regression hasn't been even to .618 level yet. There is a macro cup and handle still in works until price regresses more than 50%.
So is it time to load up on shorts or buy a whole bunch $300 puts? I am afraid, I won't be doing that. What I am intending to do is to wait for a bounce. $426 should be the failure point if market really wants to dump down to Oct 2022 lows. There are massive supports down below, so I don't expect market to do a nose dive as many are predicting. I will watch what happens next week and if we do get a bounce and a failure at $426, I will buy some downside options. For now, I am out on the sidelines.
SPY (Stocks) looks to continue uptrendTraders,
For the last year you have heard me preach this blow-off top. So far, we've nailed it. Today, the FED decided to continue the pause. No surprises here and it turned out to be a non-event in the market. The FED knows that they are "this close" to breaking everything. Macro-economically, we are on the brink of disaster both nationally and globally. Many people know this both logically and instinctively. Still the market will go against all odds and price stocks irrationally. This is happening. And my blow-off top is playing out perfectly!
The dollar has had 9 straight weeks of green candles. Time to take a rest.
The VIX hit a two year low this last week and remains suppressed.
Dollar down + VIX down = Markets UP!
Additionally, you can see from a technical perspective indicators that continue to support my blow-off top thesis:
Notice Elliot Wave. We are on the final wave now.
Notice that trendline (wave 5). We are still above that.
Notice Ichimoku cloud is green and beneath us.
Notice the 50 candle moving avg below us giving us support.
Notice the green area of support below us.
I am not telling any one of you that you are wrong if you believe we will eventually go down. I agree with you. But before that? BLOW-OFF TOP!
Best in all your trades,
Stew
Nifty 50 Index: A Dramatic Crash Ahead?Technical Analysis :
Unveiling the Mystery: Understanding the Actual Value Zone in Stock Trading
In simple terms, the Actual Value Zone represents the price range within which retailers trade a stock among themselves. Let's take an example to understand it better.
Imagine there is a continuous supply of 10,000 kg of potatoes in the market. This keeps the potato prices stable because the demand is met by the supply. As a result, the price remains within a certain range, indicated by the blue zone on the chart, depending on the time frame we are considering.
Now, let's imagine a business person or institution who wants to make money from potatoes. They disrupt the supply chain by stocking a huge amount, let's say 50% of the supply. This sudden decrease in supply causes the price of potatoes to double until the next cycle of 10,000 kg of supply from farmers.
This situation often leads to a green candle, symbolizing a surge in market demand. As a result, everyone starts buying potatoes, and with the help of retailers, the price of potatoes can increase up to four times the original price.
At this stage, the business person or institution has stocked 50% of the potatoes, and the retailers have also stocked 50%. The institution wants to accumulate more potatoes from those retailers who are unwilling to sell. To achieve this, the institution supplies a small number of potatoes, causing the price to drop slightly. This tempts some retailers to sell their potatoes, which the institution buys again, creating a situation known as Bearish Divergence.
To summarize this story, initially, the actual price of each kg of potato was 10 rupees. It increased to 20 rupees after the institution stocked 50%, and then further rose to 40 rupees when retailers also stocked 50%. The institution makes money by selling their potatoes bought at 10 rupees for 40 rupees, which leads to more potatoes being sold at higher prices. Eventually, this increases the supply, causing the price to drop back to its original value.
This story illustrates a fundamental principle underlying the stock market and other assets worldwide. Retailers, with their limited resources, have minimal influence over price fluctuations. The market is driven by various factors, including manipulation by institutions, creating a complex environment for trading.
And a successful retail trader must know when the institution is going to sell or buy !
My next move : I'm patiently waiting for a significant breakthrough moment. Interestingly, it seems that institutions are deliberately keeping the market steady at a particular price level. However, this is actually a strategic move on their part. They are waiting for the market to reach another price range before starting to sell. When they do, I plan to follow their lead and sell my assets as well.
We greatly value your comments and feedback, as they play a crucial role in our continuous improvement. We invite you to share your technical analysis, as it contributes to creating more opportunities for inclusive learning. By sharing your insights, we can foster a collaborative environment that benefits everyone involved. Thank you !
1929 Stock Market & Today The story of 1929 -
The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression that lasted from 1929 to the late 1930s. There were several factors that contributed to the trigger of the Great Depression, but the key trigger is often attributed to the stock market crash of 1929.
In the 1920s, there was a period of economic growth and prosperity in the United States, also known as the "Roaring Twenties." During this time, people invested heavily in the stock market, and the prices of stocks rose rapidly. However, in September and October of 1929, the stock market began to decline, and on October 24, 1929, known as "Black Thursday," panic selling began, causing the stock market to crash.
The stock market crash led to a chain reaction of events that contributed to the Great Depression. Banks had invested heavily in the stock market and had also made loans to individuals and businesses that were unable to repay them. As a result, many banks failed, leading to a loss of confidence in the banking system.
The collapse of the banking system led to a decrease in the money supply, which caused a decline in spending and investment. The decline in spending and investment led to a decrease in production and employment, which caused a further decline in spending and investment, and the cycle continued.
In summary, the key trigger for the Great Depression was the stock market crash of 1929, which led to a chain reaction of events that caused the collapse of the banking system and a severe decrease in spending and investment.
I am seeing similarities between its technical and fundamental.
My view on technical as a study into "Behavioral price movement" , it refers to the fluctuations in the price of a financial asset that are caused by the collective behavior of investors, traders and events. And they tend to repeat itself.
Trading & Hedging in Nasdaq -
E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options:
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options:
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Brace yourself, recession is comingThe US Treasury Yield Curve is currently inverted, meaning short term interest rates higher than long term interest rates.
This unusual occurrence, called a yield curve inversion, has historically been a very reliable indicator of an upcoming economic recession.
Since World War II every yield curve inversion has been followed by a recession in the following 6-18 months, and recessions are naturally correlated with decreased stock market returns.
The yield curve has not been this high in over 40 years.
Recession is coming HARD.
Read:
www.currentmarketvaluation.com
Inflation and Business Cycle: What will happen next?Inflation has been rising aggressively since 2021. It accelerated from 2% to hit an all-time high of 9.1% in June 2022. As inflation rose, central banks like the Fed raised interest rates to control inflation . But this effort to control inflation, on one hand made money more expensive for the industries and on the other hand pushed consumers to reduce their spendings.
Many economists had already predicted rising inflation and its impeding worst impact on the global economy and stock markets. Still, there are fears everywhere that bear markets could persist and even a further decline is likely.
Here the basic question arises that must be understood:
WHAT IS INFLATION & WHY DOES IT OCCUR?
In fact, inflation occurs whenever demand for goods and services increases while supply remains constrained.
Growth is everyone's dream...
To capitalize on this aspiration, banks provide cash at low interest rates to support growth, but unfortunately this cash is used by people to buy luxuries like cars, electronics and homes. Cars need fuel and metals, electronics need high R&D spending and skilled human capital, and houses need building materials. Pressure on luxury items leads to price increases.
Technically speaking, when demand accelerates faster than supply, it has a net effect on price. This phenomenon is referred to as the law of demand, which states: "If more people want to buy something, when there is limited supply, the price of that thing will be higher." (The same law of demand applies in the stock market: as demand for stocks increases, their price increases.)
After Covid-19, global demand for goods and services began to normalize (increase). But to boost growth, which had been severely hampered in Covid times, banks made easy loans available at attractive interest rates. The resulting increase in the supply of money in the markets stimulated consumer spending. Ideally, if growth had been at a sustained pace and in the productive sectors, inflation would not have occurred. But that never happens - a phenomenon that creates the business cycle.
A business cycle has phases of expansion and contraction.
We are currently in the contraction phase of the business cycle - inflation is still high, interest rates and yields are unbearable, and industrial performance has declined.
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN NEXT?
- Unbearable prices will force consumers to reduce their spending/demand
- High interest rates and reduced demand will reduce industry revenues and profits
- Equity markets will continue to show poor performance
But good times will come again!
When the market bottoms out in the business cycle, expansion begins. This will be an ideal time to invest in growth and value stocks.
Up and then down, or straight down? Either way we're going down!With the news of SVB about to collapse, the markets started to move into safe havens and the stock markets started moving down. Now the question is, has the move down we've witnessed been the X wave of a larger B wave which should terminate around 4300 (as illustrated in our green count). Or is this the minor wave 1 of intermediate wave 3 which should result in a very sharp move down. Either way we're convinced that over the next few months we're heading lower to 3200 as a minimum. But of course the important part we need to establish now is if we move higher for a minor wave 2 or up for the Y wave of the primary wave B. We're expecting the move down to terminate around 3800 before moving up, of course we will be closely watching this move up to see if we get 3 waves or 5 waves to confirm which count we are in. Exciting times are ahead with some big opportunites to make profits.
Gold Bear Case - Wyckoff Distribution Pattern - Posting for funThis chart is for entertainment purposes only and setups up a possible bear scenario. I'm not an expert at distribution patterns but I thought it would be fun to see if this might fit the pattern.
I don't think gold is excluded from the 'everything bubble' that the Fed is trying to pop. The Fed has been very clear that interest rates are going to go higher and stay higher for a long time. Gold does not yield interest payments and so people are going to put their money in things that do (e.g. treasury bills paying 4-5% for a low risk return).
I would not be surprised to see a large correction in gold to prices below or at $1k.
I'm neither bearish or bullish on gold.
Enjoy.
Topping Pattern Example (Head and Shoulders)Hunstman is a chemical manufacturer whose earnings have plummeted over 85% compared to the first half of 2022. The chart is a prime example of a large head & shoulders pattern. Analysts expect its earning to remain depressed and the chart shows signs of Distribution over the past 2 years.
COIN Coinbase potential Sell-Off !!!If you haven`t bought COIN puts here:
Or sold it here:
Then you should know that COIN Coinbase was more than a client of Silicon Valley Bank, and the relationship between the two companies was more than just a client-provider one.
Back in 2014, when cryptocurrency projects and businesses affiliated with crypto struggled to secure financing from traditional sources, Coinbase gave a stock warrant to Silicon Valley Bank.
This was part of an agreement between the two companies, which allowed Coinbase to use the bank's services.
The warrant gave the bank the option to buy more than 400,000 shares of Coinbase's class B common stock for slightly over $1 each. The warrant was valid until June 2024, but it is unclear what its status is currently.
However, Silicon Valley Bank's latest annual report to the Securities and Exchange Commission revealed that the bank earned $116 million in gains "related to Coinbase's direct listing" in 2021.
Coinbase has also paused conversions between USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar) and US dollars, due to the ongoing banking crisis that has affected the crypto industry.
Circle, which backs USDC, confirmed that $3.3 billion of the $40 billion supporting its stablecoin was deposited at Silicon Valley Bank.
Following the bank's seizure by the FDIC, the fate of that cash is uncertain, and USDC's dollar peg has been lost temporarily.
It remains unclear what Coinbase's exposure to USDC is at this time.
Considering the chart, my Price Target for COIN Coinbase is $34, for a potential Double Bottom.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SBNY Signature Bank next to Collapse? If you haven`t bought those 5X puts:
Then you should know that Signature Bank's stock experienced its worst day on record following the collapse of SIVB Silicon Valley Bank and SI Silvergate.
Due to high volatility, trading was suspended earlier in Friday's session, and the stock has continued to decline for five consecutive sessions.
This downturn was triggered by the closure of Silvergate, the second major bank serving digital assets companies, as well as the regulatory shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank, the 18th largest bank in the United States.
It has been reported that Signature Bank had exposure to FTX.
I am still bearish on the company and i believe it will reach the $34 - $63 area soon!
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
DJI - Be Ready My FriendsHi, this is my new update for DJI. As you see in the first picture, we are exactly in the same place we should be for a big crash. It is difficult to estimate a date, but I expect we are going to see 80% downside on DJI in the near future.
Right now we are on a beautiful uptrend channel pattern and it has acted as resistance level multiple times and the middle line has acted like support level multiple times. At the same time we have An RSI divergence in monthly chart and that indicates we are ready for bearish signals.
SPY QQQ HYG Divergence again I’m not sure if SPX/HYG divergence is reliable moving forward, but this indicator has proven pretty effective last year. We are currently diverging again, last 3 major divergences created pull backs of -17%,-13%, -21%
Any thoughts from my fellow analysts?
Any other divergence indicators you can share with high probability?
Good luck to all
VIX: Another Warning Sign!Hello friends, today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1M linear scale chart for the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX).
In this chart, you can see the VIX moving along a support trendline. When the VIX spikes upwards that means the markets (specifically S&P 500; generally all markets) start to move downwards. Every few years the VIX starts to slowly move upwards on a new support and resistance trend line before coming back down to the bottom support line. The current structure of the VIX looks very similar to the formation of the Great Recession so I show that on the chart as a possibility. I also note two support and resistance lines which the VIX could move on as it moves higher. Lastly noted is the RSI which is moving up a support line. This is a monthly chart so have some patience.
I may be completely wrong with the prediction of the VIX moving higher, but with the inflation issue, global economic condition, stock markets crashing, companies preparing for a downturn, interest rates moving higher, the US Dollar Index (DXY) moving higher and crypto market crashing, I would assume my prediction may be on point.
Click on the chart below on why I exited the crypto and stock market in December 2021:
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
