Stockmarketcrash2019
Impending stock market crash circa 1987?I publicly called the October 2018 market top months before it happened and the subsequent low, as well as this move up. I have also not been shy in hiding my belief that a crash will target $15,000 at least. If we continue to follow this same market pattern from prior to 1987's Black Monday, then we should expect a rise toward $29,000, as I have mentioned previously, followed by a hard drop toward $15,000-$18,000 as the market crashes. From the $29,000-$30,000 level, the same ~40% seen in 1987 would have price dropping right into my target area. It is possible that we could see an even larger drop, however, as a result of the large rise in price since the 2009 market bottom.
That being said, price has to hit that upper level first. If not, and it drops instead, then we should expect a move toward ~$15,800 based on the broadening wedge that's been printing since January 2018. Furthermore, if price does head up to $29,000/$30,000 first, then if the pattern just rhymes with 1987, we should expect a low point to be found at the HVN around $12,500-$13,200, depending on when the market crashed, much like the 1987 crash wicked below the previous re-accumulation level. This would also be the likely target based on the height of the larger broadening wedge that would have printed.
Easy potential 25% Return on XLNXXLNX has a strong support at $94.00 with an upward potential to $138.00 for a potential 25%+ return. Great buy for a significant return and a low risk.
MASSIVE BEARISH DIVERGENCE on all major markets playing outThis is a once a century setup. You don't get such massive divergences caused by primarily inflows from corporate debt fueled stock market inflows. Soon the corporate debt bubble will burst in the high-yield sector and this may be the catalyst for a 50-65% very quick selloff.
Why I'm Shorting the S&P 500Macro-economic Overview
Essentially, it’s looking like the bear market is becoming more probable month after month. Tons of macro-economic bearish signals:
Euro economies taking hits (Germany narrowly avoided a recession last quarter but has seen 0 growth; UK recession looming as well especially w/ no Brexit deal)
We’re currently in the longest US economic expansion ever. What goes up, must come down.
US-China trade deal going sour.
Manufacturing production going down.
The Fed raised interest rates several times last year.
The list goes on and on. And that’s without me even looking at a chart.
What exactly is going on here?
When we look high-level at the charts (see above video for technical analysis) , at the end of 2018, the US stock market took its biggest plunge (-20%) since the financial crisis… Now, we’ve climbed back to the previous high for the third time and are again struggling to break through it.
What appears to be propping up our economy despite these bearish signals is lip service: Statements by Trump like “Our economy is in its best state ever!” and “We’re gonna have an epic trade deal with China!” And statements by the Central bank saying that they are not going to raise interest rates again until 2020.
But covering the wound is not stopping the bleeding. The blood is accumulating and there is a point when it starts to leak. We don’t know what specific event is going to trigger the blood to gush this time around. In 2001, it was the tech bubble. In 2008, it was the lack of regulation in Wall Street and the housing bubble. In 2019/2020, it could be a failed China deal, the Fed reneging on their promise not to raise rates this year, or something we haven’t caught wind of yet…
Perhaps the specific trigger is worth speculating and helpful for folks who want to say, “I called it!“, but at the end of the day - the bearish signals are very clear. And big money knows it, else we wouldn’t hit the same price peak 3 times in a row over the course of 18 months and still fail to break through it. 18 months is quite a long time to maintain the same peak in a bull market. That is a clear bearish signal.
Our Opportunity
We’re in an advantageous position where we can see the red writing on the wall, we can see the blood beneath the bandages, but prices don’t reflect it yet. This is when smart money enters. The masses wait for headlines to say "We've entered a recession." Let's think like smart money, not the masses :)
SPX SHORT AND LONG TERM SHORT ENTRIESOK ladies and gentlemen. The moment that we have all been waiting for.... Shorting the stock market.
We can clearly see we are reproaching the old range low of the daily range before the confirmation of the bearish trend occurred last month. We should expect that to provide resistance for price and thus a short term short opportunity will be in play. However, I would only be taking that to the untested level and HTF order block before continuation to the monthly breaker and EQ of the old range occurs. There I would be entering short for a long term HTF swing and expecting us to trade away from that zone after that level were to be hit.
Hope this helps and see you all in the discord as per usual.