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Market Day Ahead (29th March) - Our views on FINNIFTYAssuming Nifty Financial Services (FINNIFTY) opens between 17700 and 17600 Long Position If there is a closing above 17710. We will be initiating a long position for targets of 17770 and trail for target of 17880 Short Position If there is a closing below 17600. We will be initiating a short position for targets of 17552 and trail for target of 17432 These are our views on FINNIFTY and expectations on respective movement. We are not SEBI registered analysts and views are for learning purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trades
NSE:CNXFINANCE
by TeddyBear8884
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂️ AMD/ 1D LONGTERM ⏭ $89/$97 ? ❗❗HI TRADERS ✌The possible scenario of AMD is specified. As you can see, after breaking the long-term downward trend, the trend started to grow up to the range of 89 and then with a slight correction, it was able to grow again from the range of $76. It is currently trading in the range of $83.24 and is above the 60 EMA. We can expect the price to grow to the range of $89. We have to see how the price will react to the $89 resistance range. If it stabilizes above the range of $89, the next target is the range of $97. Keep in mind that it is important to maintain the $75 support Zone for the continuation of the uptrend let's see... ❎ (DYOR)...⚠⚜ WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THIS ANALYSIS? I will be glad to know your idea 🙂✌ IF you like my analysis please LIKE and comment 🙏✌
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by SasanSeifi
Stock Market March 23' ⚔️ Long Vs. Short Well , just as any other chart, we must keep things simple. Price has made a new Low after Ranging for 120 days/4 Months. There is Liquidity Built up in the market. If we maintain bearish momentum then we will see 31,198 very soon. Price is testing 32,082 at the moment. We may return to the low from OCT 22' due to clean traffic on the weekly timeframe and plenty of fundamental reasons to be concerned about. 32,082 must hold for bulls or we are falling off a cliff here.
UShort
by ShrewdCatfx
ADANI/INR ( Still Big Dump Expecting as per Technical AnalysisTechnical Analysis of ADANIENT/INR: ADANIENT is currently trading at ₹1615, which has seen almost a 20% rise within 2 days after a significant fall of 75% within 3 months. Many retailers attribute this fall to the Hindenburg Report, but I believe that the retailers may be wrong. The decline began in December 2022, and a strong reversal pattern formed at the top. Therefore, smart players had already exited by the end of December and January. The Hindenburg Report came on 24th January, by which time ADANIENT had already given a strong reversal pattern. Therefore, I believe that this news might have been pre-planned. It is essential to be smart and trade smartly in such situations. As per the chart, the downtrend of ADANIENT is still ongoing, but I believe that it may test the ₹2364 level again, which is around a 50% rise from the current price. However, after retesting resistance, another dump is expected. The major support level is ₹1360, and if any HTF candle closes below it, then another significant drop is expected. If the support level of ₹1360 is broken, then we may see ADANIENT at the ₹500-₹700 level. The Fib retracement support is also around those points. 0.5 FIB = ₹704, 0.618 FIB = 460. Long-term support TrendLine is also near the FIB Retracement levels. It is essential to note that this process takes time, unlike Crypto, and it may take around 2-3 years in my opinion. If ADANIENT breaks the price level of ₹3011, then the bearish sentiment will end. My Key Levels: Support: ₹1360/$704 Resistance: ₹2364 Please support me by Liking, Sharing, and appreciating my analysis and content. Follow me for the latest real-time updates. Thank you.
NSE:ADANIENTShort
by CryptoPatel
5
The Bubble Obituary The Fundamentals - Many investor favorites in the late 1960s & early 1970s were companies such as IBM, Xerox, and Disney which enjoyed PEs of over 35 in the nifty fifty bubble. In this latest stock market bubble, there were dozens of mid & large cap companies trading at over 10x revenues. Many unprofitable businesses even garnered over 6x Price/Sales ratios at the peak in 2021! The US stock market is extremely overvalued relative to historical valuation averages. Conservative earnings expectations for 2023 would place earnings dropping 10%-20% this year, in-line with mild recessions. The problem with mild forecasts is that the current recession gives no indication that it will be mild. GAAP Earnings for Q4 2022, excluding energy, are down over 8% YoY with companies issuing even gloomier forecasts for 2023. Earnings are likely to fall at least 33% from peak to trough using an average of the last 4 US recessions. - The subprime auto bubble is popping, with dealerships and lenders heavily exposed to subprime loans beginning to default. American Car Center, a subprime lender and auto dealer, recently closed its doors, highlighting the mounting pressures the industry faces. More defaults and business closures should be expected as interest rates stay high, vehicles fall in price, and car loan deliquinces rise. Subprime auto loan delinquencies are extremely high relative to their historical average even before unemployment has began rising precipitously. - Layoffs have spread to every sector of the economy, as evidenced by 2022 Q4 conference calls. The decrease in consumer spending globally is leading to lower exports and imports globally. High interest rates are decreasing business activity and profit margins are falling due to inflation & weakening productivity. The business cycle has turned and every sector of the economy is entering cost-cutting mode. These are all reasons for layoffs continuing in increasing volumes throughout 2023. - The US housing bubble is imploding. Sales volumes have declined over 35% from the peak. Mortgage purchase applications are the lowest they’ve been in over 25 years. Using data going back to 1952 from the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment surveys indicate that this is one of the worst times ever to buy a home. Home price declines are occurring nationwide. High office vacancy rates & high interest rates are leading to large bankruptcies in the commercial property market as well. This is already very acute in the mall segment of the commercial property sector. - The FED has been raising interest rates within an economic contraction which has historically always magnified economic downturns. The FED typically tries to raise interest rates in the early - middle stages of economic expansion, pause their hikes as the economic cycle matures, and begin cutting rates when the economy begins declining. In this latest hiking cycle, the FED waited until the economy began contracting before quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes even began! - America has one of the highest Private & Public Debt to GDP ratios in US History. The only other similar levels of debt in American History in the past hundred years were in the late 1920s & late 2000s. The economic contractions that followed were especially severe because of the high levels of malinvestment and debt which were deleveraged in those contractions. The level of malinvestment engendered by the FED’s suppression of interest rates in the 2009-2022 business cycle created one of the largest credit bubbles in history. Over 22% of the Russell 2000 are unprofitable and over 20% of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Many of the IPOs since 2017 (and especially since 2020) were/are unprofitable and are beginning to run into funding issues. This economic contraction is likely to eventually be classified as depression due to the continued declines in business activity and living standards for years. The Technicals & Correlations - Healthcare, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have all underperformed since December 2022. Inflows and buying from large money seems to have mostly dried up and retail investor inflows, short covering, and call buying are making up a much larger portion of the market than is typical. This led to a bounce back rally in Financials, Technology, Real Estate, and consumer discretionary stocks which also began topping out in late January. In late February 2023, all sectors of the market have topped out, show falling underlying momentum, and are trading at very weak volumes. This is a similar pattern that played out prior to the march 2020 crash, where many Industrials, Staples, Healthcare, and Utility stocks peaked out prior to January 18th, 2020; whereas many overvalued & unprofitable stocks didn’t peak until February 21, 2020. - Stock markets globally have peaked and are in the process of finishing their topping formations. Topping patterns began showing up as early as November / December 2022. Downside momentum is picking up now that interest rates globally are also beginning to breakout. The positive correlation between bonds and stocks has continued to remain strong since late 2021. - Commodities peaked in the first half of 2022 as price inflation continued rising and economic activity was still high. Commodities enjoyed a large bounce in Fall 2022 as financial conditions eased due to the bear market rally in stock & bond prices. Commodities have been exceptionally weak thus far in 2023, which is another negative signal for stock markets & business activity globally. - The bankruptcies of FTX & the Genesis lending desk, as well as increasing regulatory oversight, have continued to pressure crypto. With interest rates moving higher and the economy falling further, the speculative bubble that is crypto will collapse, likely back to being under 100B market cap for the total market with many altcoins going to zero and bitcoin dropping below 10K. Crypto has been a leading indicator for the market ever since their correlation began tightening in late 2020. The confirmed false breakouts and breakdowns all over the crypto sector are a negative forward signal for the stock market. - Total margin debt outstanding is still at an extremely elevated level. In real terms, margin debts outstanding are at comparable levels prior to the October 2008 crash & March 2020 crash. Insider selling is at the highest point that it has been in the entire bear market. The US dollar index’s negative correlation to the stock market was strong in 2021 but it became very pronounced in 2022. The US dollar’s rise against almost every other currency around the world since February 2nd is yet another negative leading signal to stocks. -Alexander Lambert I study over 30 countries’ markets and economic data releases. I also track the daily movements of over 750 companies and 15 different sector indexes. I have spent a tremendous amount of time on historical & economic research, as well as technical and fundamental analysis. I have been doing this for over 3 years and I generally spend between 65-80 hours a week on my work. Thank you for reading!
Editors' picks
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
32
Remgro heading straight to R165.55 thanks to this triangleAscending Triangle is forming nicely on Remgro. We see the 7 and 21 MA above 200. But more importantly, Price >200 - Bullish RSI>50 - Bullish Target R165.55 ABOUT THE COMPANY Remgro was founded in 1990 (Stellenbosch, South Africa) by Johann Rupert, a South African entrepreneur and businessman. The company was established as an investment holding company with a focus on building a diversified portfolio of long-term investments. Today, Remgro holds investments in a wide range of industries, including healthcare, financial services, mining, and telecommunications. The company's portfolio includes holdings in some of South Africa's largest and most well-known companies, such as MediClinic, FirstRand, and RMB Holdings. The company's name is an abbreviation of "REsource Management GRoup." Remgro holds investments in a wide range of industries, including healthcare, financial services, mining, and telecommunications. The company has a market capitalization of over R100 billion as of February 2023.
JSE:REMLong
by Timonrosso
DJI - Be Ready My FriendsHi, this is my new update for DJI. As you see in the first picture, we are exactly in the same place we should be for a big crash. It is difficult to estimate a date, but I expect we are going to see 80% downside on DJI in the near future. Right now we are on a beautiful uptrend channel pattern and it has acted as resistance level multiple times and the middle line has acted like support level multiple times. At the same time we have An RSI divergence in monthly chart and that indicates we are ready for bearish signals.
TVC:DJIShort
by GOAT1375
3
Market now looking to go BearishWith the massive selloff in the market today and the great setup on the VIX it is looking like this little bull run could now be over. In my 2 chart pics I have the daily charts of the SPY and the VXX. This looks very obvious that the VXX is ready to spike which will send the market lower. It is always important when determining where the market is going, to look at the vix. If the vxx is bearish the market is likely bullish, if the vxx is bullish the market will likely be bearish. It will mostly be opposite. So right now the VXX is setting up very bullish for Friday. I will be mostly looking for bearish setups to trade on Friday for the top stocks and indicess Now it is also important to view the futures over night because they could easily turn around a rally setting up for a gap up in the SPY the next day.
CBOE:VXX
by Dancharles
A major bull trap has been set.The current level of euphoria and speculation on Wall Street is likely to go down in history in the same way that the misplaced optimism of speculators in 1929 was immortalized by the tremendous crash and ensuing depression. The current dynamics at play are more similar to that period than most realize. Many potential catalysts for the Global Financial Crisis 2.0 are beginning to rear their heads, including things such as: -The auto loan bubble -The residential & commercial real estate bubble -The private equity and venture capital bubble -The largest losses in the total bond market in generations -Highest level of Federal Debt to GDP in US history and extremely high level of consumer & corporate debt in US history -The most overvalued market based on forward earnings in history (Based on my expectations of S&P 2023 earnings will fall below 140). Peak margins above -13% coming back under 10% will also help to drive this. -The fastest pace of interest rate hikes since Paul Volcker and $90 billion of quantitative tightening per month. -The crypto bubble implosion where many exchanges are likely to fail due to their ponzi-like staking dynamics and unprofitable nature of exchanges like Coinbase. We are starting to see the beginnings of the financial contagion from FTX into other exchanges and coins. This is happening in an industry valued at over $3 trillion at its peak. -The Chinese real estate crisis and recession -The energy crisis which has curtailed over 20% of EU industrial capacity and is sending Europe into a recession. This is leading to increased energy costs around the world. -Looming sovereign debt crises & currency crises for emerging and certain developed economies. - Monetary growth is contracting at the highest pace since the Great Depression. The $1.6 trillion auto loan bubble is reminiscent of the subprime lending bubble. There were incredibly loose lending standards in this auto loan bubble, where people that received federal stimulus checks were able to claim these as income. This entitled them to larger sized loans than they would have otherwise had access too. Many of these loans were made at over 130% loan to value ratio. These loans have been packaged up as bonds and sold off to investors hungry in search for yield in a world of artificially low interest rates, suppressed by the Fed for the better part of 14 years since the Global Financial Crisis. The amount of delinquent auto loans has continued to increase, and the looming crisis represents a huge threat to financial stability. As real wages and employment continue to fall, the amount of delinquent loans will continue to rise. Earnings for the S&P 500 in Q3 have already started to contract more than 5% year over year (excluding energy) and yet many analysts still expect some, to no growth of earnings in 2023. Earnings are likely to collapse over 40% in 2023, pressured by falling consumer demand and falling operating margins. Consumer sentiment registered the worst sentiment among US consumers since the great depression. All of the Fed manufacturing and service data components show comparable data now to data being released in mid 2008 to the spring of 2009, all with continuously negative trends. Capital expenditures have begun decreasing and mass layoffs are just beginning. 37% of US small businesses could not pay their rent in full in October. Many companies will be forced to close their doors permanently and layoff their entire staff. Consumption began to fall rapidly after the Fed began quantitative tightening and ended quantitative easing. The effects finally began hitting company earnings largely in Q3, with much more pain to follow. Meanwhile, many companies continued to hire large amounts of people unaware that consumption would continue to collapse. As asset prices fall further and inflation stays elevated, real wages will continue falling. Student loan payments begin again at the start of 2023, further harming consumer sentiment. Money supply growth began stagnating early in the year in 1929 and the federal government began to tighten spending with the New Deal programs in 1936 before the crash happened in 1937. Bank balance sheets have been flat for 2022 while the central bank balance sheet has been contracting leading to a slight contraction in the money supply. The contracting growth of monetary supply and fast paced increases in interest rates will lead to a large-scale downturn in GDP. On a technical basis, the current market setup looks very similar to 1929, 1937, 1973-1974, 1987, and 2008. All of which had major rallies that topped in late summer / fall before crashing over 30%. All of these crashes took place over the span of less than 3 months, with the majority of the percentage decline occurring over a period of 2-3 weeks. There are dozens of companies that are virtually guaranteed to go bust in this downturn based on an overview of their financials. There have never been so many listed companies that reached valuations in the billions at their peak with no earnings . Many companies at the time of this writing still have valuations of over 6 times sales and many companies such as Coinbase, Uber, and Rivian are still valued at over $10 billion market caps whilst losing hundreds of millions of dollars per quarter. The dozens of zombie companies in the S&P 500 are being forced into rolling their debts at higher interest rates while their earnings fall. This will be the largest debt deleveraging cycle in the US economy since the great depression, because this is the largest accumulation of bad debts since the roaring twenties. It is not long until the credit risk is truly realized by market participants, and interest rates spike throughout the economy. This would include the inter-bank lending rate and junk rated bonds which would lead to a financial crisis. The longer the Fed’s quantitative tightening runs, the more inevitable the financial crisis becomes. The Fed ran the balance sheet down around $600 billion over the course of 2018 into late summer of 2019 before inter-bank lending rates started to spike. This time, the Fed has run the balance sheet down close to $300 billion so far with a plan of reaching over a $600 billion runoff in Q1 of 2023. The hopes for a Fed pivot are misplaced. A Fed pivot on interest rate hikes and even a reversal of the rate hikes cannot re-incentivize people to borrow . In a contracting credit cycle and business cycle downturn, debt begins to be paid off and defaulted on rather than excessively accumulated. The demand to borrow collapses even if interest rates were lowered by the Fed. Therefore, bear markets and recessions usually don’t end until many months after the Fed has already begun cutting interest rates. This was seen in the Great Recession and the dot com bubble of 2000; where the market didn’t bottom until over 18 months after the Fed began cutting rates.
TVC:NDQShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
CRWD (Multi-Support Bounce)CRWD is currently retesting a key support area between ($90.94 - $102.08) for the second time since its last touch back on June, July, and August 2020. This touch /bounce of support is also in confluence with a 3rd touch of the support area within a massive falling wedge that began to form after CRWD reached all time highs November 2021. In addition to this information, CRWD is also forming a smaller falling wedge on the lower time frames adding more confirmation to a bounce from this area. On the monthly chart, CRWD is creating smaller monthly candles with volume showing a decline along with these decreasing in size. Note: There are two GAPs on the daily to be filled. One between ($99.78 - $102.54) and the other between ($125.52 - $136.31). 

Trade Idea: For an early ENTRY wait for a break and hold of the current resistance area between ($98.70 - $100.63) after the break of $99.78. TARGET the next resistance area between ($108.94 - $112.07). For a safer entry with added confirmation of a trend change. First allow the break of the resistance area between ($98.70 - $100.63) then wait for a retest/reject of the next swing high around $107.44 - 108.46 or maybe even the next resistance area between ($108.94 - $112.07). After this reject allow for CRWD’s price action to make its way back down to retest the previous resistance area to ensure that it has turned into support and wait confirmation to enter. Being that this is analysis applies to the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly charts, this setup could be used to make short term swing trades or long term LEAPs, depending on your chosen targets. Me personally, I would make short term trades on the way up but my ultimate target is CRWD making its way back up to the resistance line/zone of the larger falling wedge, maybe even filling the big GAP zone between ($125.52 - $136.31) Wherever you choose to enter, please manage risk accordingly and choose your stop loss wisely.
NASDAQ:CRWDLong
by Stockstradamus_
CF Industries Holding Analyze!!!🌿CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is an American manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and ammonium nitrate products, based in Deerfield, Illinois, a suburb of Chicago. It was founded in 1946 as the Central Farmers Fertilizer Company. After growth of about 500%😱 in the last two years, CF Industries Holding has finally exited its ascending channel. I expect CF Industries Holding to decline to the minimum support zone (about 15% down). 🔅CF Industries Holding Analyze ( CFUSD ) Timeframe 2Days⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
NYSE:CFShort
by pejman_zwin