Intraday moving average stocks for (05/Dec/2024)Technical Analysis of Moving average stocks (05/Dec/2024)
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Stockprediction
DJI Collapse Imminent | Caution All AssetsThis is how we hold the finance sector accountable.
Caution in all assets.
The world economy is grinding to a stand-still.
This selloff will be deep and obviously very painful.
There are a ton of hype stories and narratives out there - I have covered and poked fun at many of the ridiculous narratives in previous posts.
We knew this day would come.
Discovering profitable stocks for intraday trading █ Discovering profitable stocks for intraday trading: Simplifying the BeSt System
Intraday trading style capitalizes on the market's daily fluctuations to generate profits, appealing to traders seeking quick returns. However, the rapid pace and high associated volatility require precise decision-making and a deep understanding of market dynamics. For intraday traders, the key to success lies in predicting market movements and identifying stocks that offer the best potential for profit within a limited timeframe. The BeSt system , short for Best Stock Finder, is a pioneering approach that uses data analysis to pinpoint promising stocks for daily trades. This article explores how this system works and what it means for the everyday trader.
The primary goal of this research is to unearth effective strategies for selecting stocks that are most likely profitable for intraday trading.
The relevance of this study is particularly pronounced in the current market environment, characterized by heightened volatility and increased trading volumes. These conditions heighten the risks associated with intraday trading and open up new opportunities for savvy traders.
█ Understanding the BeSt System
At its core, the best system employs a sophisticated blend of regression and sequence mining techniques to analyze historical stock data. By examining patterns in stock price movements and predicting future trends, the system identifies stocks most likely to experience significant price changes within the same trading day.
⚪ How Does the BeSt System Work?
Regression Techniques: These algorithms predict future price variations by analyzing historical price data. The stocks showing the highest potential for price fluctuations are highlighted as prime candidates for trading.
Sequence Mining: This method goes beyond simple price predictions by looking for recurring sequences in stock performance. It identifies patterns indicating which stocks are likely to perform well, based on their historical sequence of returns.
Weighted Sequences: By assigning different weights to stock occurrences based on their profitability, the system prioritizes stocks that have consistently shown higher returns following specific patterns.
⚪ Simplifying How the BeSt System Works
Predicting Price Changes: At its heart, the system uses past stock price movements to forecast future activity. Imagine being able to predict a stock’s price rise before it happens—that’s what this system aims to do.
Finding Patterns: Beyond predictions, the BeSt system looks for patterns in how stocks have performed over time, identifying which stocks are likely to do well together or in sequence. This helps in anticipating market movements.
Prioritizing Profitable Stocks: Not all stocks are treated equally; the system prioritizes those that have historically provided better returns following certain patterns.
█ Conclusion: For intraday traders, the BeSt system offers a promising tool that enhances profitability and provides a deeper understanding of market dynamics. Turning complex data into actionable trading insights represents a significant step forward in the quest for optimal trading strategies. As technology and data science continue to advance, the BeSt system is well-positioned to become an indispensable part of every trader's toolkit.
█ Methodology
⚪ Regression Techniques These algorithms predict the value of continuous variables based on the analysis of historical data.The goal is to predict the daily percentage variation in the price of a stock on the next trading day by analyzing the historical prices of market stocks on the preceding days. Stocks with the maximal predicted variation are recommended as the most tradeable on the subsequent trading day.
Data Preparation: The historical price data of various stocks are collected, focusing primarily on daily percentage variations in stock prices.
Model Training: Regression algorithms are used to create predictive models. These models analyze the historical prices and try to forecast the price movements of the stocks for the next trading day.
Stock Selection: Stocks predicted to have the highest percentage variation in their prices the next day are flagged as potential candidates for trading. This prediction is based on the regression model’s output, which calculates the expected price change from one day to the next.
⚪ Sequence Mining This involves the use of unsupervised data mining techniques to discover recurrent sequences of items in large datasets. In this context, items are stocks, and the time stamps correspond to the closures of consecutive trading days. A sequence is an ordered list of itemsets, where an itemset is a set of items occurring at a given time stamp. Given the best-performing stocks on past and current trading days, a sequence indicates that if an arbitrary set of stocks is in the top list on preceding days, a given stock is likely to occur in the top list on the next day. Weighted sequences, rather than traditional ones, are used to weigh differently the occurrences of different stocks on the same trading day according to their daily profits.
Data Handling: The process starts with collecting historical stock data, particularly focusing on the closing prices across consecutive trading days. This data is then prepared into a sequence format where each sequence represents the ordered list of stock performances over multiple days.
Mining Process: Using sequence mining algorithms, the system searches for common patterns or sequences in the stock data. These patterns reveal which stocks frequently perform well in sequence—meaning if certain stocks are performing well today, which stocks are likely to perform well tomorrow based on historical patterns.
Weighted Sequences: To refine the selection, the concept of weighted sequences is applied. This approach gives different weights to the occurrences of stocks based on their profit performances on particular days. For example, if a stock consistently shows higher gains than others on specific days following certain trends, it will be weighted more heavily in the predictive model.
Stock Recommendations: The system identifies sequences with the highest recurrence and profitability. Stocks appearing in these sequences are recommended for trading. These stocks are expected to perform well in the short term, aligning with intraday trading goals.
█ Data Set Used
The data set used for this study consisted of a broad range of stocks across various sectors, including technology, finance, and consumer goods. To ensure the reliability of the data, the study focused on stocks listed on major exchanges like the NYSE and NASDAQ.
█ Key Findings
High Profitability: The BeSt system outperforms traditional stock selection methods like Support Vector Machines, Linear Regression, and random selection strategies. The sequence-based strategies used by BeSt, in particular, have proven to yield higher profits, demonstrating the system's ability to effectively identify the most promising stocks for intraday trading.
Effective Trend Capture: The system is highly adept at identifying underlying trends in stock price movements. This capability allows traders to make informed decisions based on a solid analysis of historical data, ensuring that trades align with the most likely future movements of the market.
[* ]Scalability: The BeSt system can handle large datasets efficiently, making it suitable for analyzing the numerous stocks listed on major stock exchanges. This scalability is crucial for intraday traders who need to quickly sift through vast amounts of data to identify trading opportunities.
Interpretability of Results: Unlike many other data-driven trading systems, the BeSt system provides interpretable results. This feature is particularly beneficial for traders who prefer to understand the logic behind the recommended trades. The system's transparency helps build trust and allows users to learn from the system's insights.
█ Practical Applications
Even if you don’t have access to the BeSt system itself, understanding its principles can improve how you approach trading:
⚪ Look for Patterns: Start tracking how certain stocks perform in relation to each other and over various days. You might begin to notice patterns that can guide your trading decisions.
⚪ Use Available Tools: Many trading platforms offer basic tools for analyzing stock trends and predicting movements. Use these to start making more informed decisions.
█ Limitations
While the findings of this study are valuable, they come with limitations that traders should consider. The study focused on large-cap stocks listed on major exchanges, which may not apply to smaller-cap stocks or those on less liquid markets. Additionally, the historical data may not fully account for the market's future conditions as market dynamics continually evolve.
█ Reference
Baralis, E., Cagliero, L., Cerquitelli, T., Garza, P., & Pulvirenti, F. (2017). Discovering profitable stocks for intraday trading. Information Sciences, 405, 91-106.
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Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
S&P500 - The Maker Of Kings (and bull runs) 👑After one of the biggest rallies since 2020, we take a look at the SP500 Daily chart.
We've thrown on our US equity gap & stock market breadth indicator to show some potential price targets.
It’s looking like we might be after the 4100 gap before falling to the 3400 gap.
The breadth indicator buying (bottom indicator in screenshot) hit numbers similar to 2020 during Covid crash/rebound. Which could drive us back up to 4100 IF the bulls keep showing up like they did today. 🐂
If 4100 is on the way first, then the bears need to come back in hard to drive to new lows.
Until Fed comes in to save the day & money printers are engaged, I don’t think we’ve seen the worst of it.
Right now they’re still slow controlling the bear market. Still waiting for an “event” or “oh boy moment” to pull the rug.
We shall see. Stay safe & eyes peeled!
-TucciNomics
Chief Overlord, AlgoBuddy
RUSSELL 2000 respecting FIB levels; ABC may reach 1500 vol zone.The smallcaps Russell 2000 futures RTY1! (also the IWM etf), a leading market indicator like the transports, may complete an A=C correction ending in the volume profile zone near 1500. (IWM seems to be consolidating in tranches of 200…ex…230, 210, 190, now @ 170 & maybe 150 around 4Q2022.) This will complete the final wave 5 of C-wave.
As you can see in this weekly chart, Russell 2000 respects impt FIB levels. 2100 zone is Fib 0.236, 1900 is Fib 0.383, the current 1700 zone is Fib 0.50 & the projected 1500 bottom zone will be Fib 0.618, the most likely zone for a reversal.
THE BULLISH CASE: if Russell 2000 holds the 1700 zone, the bounce will be very quick due to the 2 LOW VOLUME zones. The target will be 2100 with some consolidation near the 1900 zone.
Not trading advice
Long-term Silver pick. Really like some of these silver junior stocks for the potential explosive move if silver can get too new all time highs over the coming years. Historically 50x moves on the cards. This is a take a position and hold for years play. A nice pullback of late has given us a nice entry price. Allocating 2% of portfolio here. #inflation hedge
SPY (Historical Pattern) Are we at the cusp of a 20% drop? Hi Everyone,
I am trying to find where in recent "history" have we been in a similar position in terms of ATH's, current market sentiment, and the economic policies in place. 2018 had a massive 20% sell-off attributed towards the Fed increasing the rate, even though the overall performance of companies wasn't bad and exceeded expectations. The charts in 2018 with where we are now doesn't really align. However if we look between November 2019 until now the charts look oddly similar in terms of timing and movements.
If we look at this chart there's a lot of similarities pre 2020 crash which in my opinion was a one-off due to Covid19 news. Again i don't think the sell off will be as severe with the growing exposure to stocks and investing. there's an underlying bullish momentum for investing now that everyone is home and a keyboard warrior.
Love to hear your thoughts and opinions.
Kind regards,
Reg
SPY Breakout or Breakdown? Market Direction
Please read the chart. Keeping it simple today. Will answer comments and DM's.
I'll add more notes as we progress through this current cycle. There is too much momentum currently riding to push us out of the recession unless we see really dumb policy or world events that makes the overall market tank.
Good luck & Happy Hunting,
Reg
